Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Gallup/Ö24) for the Vienna state election (on Oct. 11):



Hypothetical mayoral vote:



34% of Vienna voters want the Red-Green city government to continue after the election, 30% want a SPÖ-ÖVP coalition.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-legt-in-Wien-wieder-auf-39-Prozent-zu/178703961

[Zanas]

By and large, to whom went those almost 14% of Other votes in Carinthia ? Are those a kind of DVD-DVG thing like in France ? Or real unaffiliated independent candidates ?

[Tender Branson]

By and large, to whom went those almost 14% of Other votes in Carinthia ? Are those a kind of DVD-DVG thing like in France ? Or real unaffiliated independent candidates ?

A mix of really independent people who run on their own lists (not really that much of a deal in small towns where everyone knows everyone, which means a lot of money is not needed) and party politicians who are either A) unpopular and want to run from their party by labelling themselves independent, or B) incumbents who are in a tough fight. Usually, ÖVP- and FPÖ-politicians often set up their own "independent lists" to hide their origin (this will be even more obvious in the Vorarlberg municipal elections on March 15).

But in the case of Carinthia, NEOS/Team Stronach/BZÖ for example are also listed among "others".

[Tender Branson]

The Styria state election will likely be moved to a date before the summer school break, instead of being held in the fall.

ÖVP-leader Schützenhöfer confirmed today that he will once again be the frontrunner in the election and that he favours an early date.

Governor Voves (SPÖ) has said that he also likes the idea of elections before the summer break.

http://steiermark.orf.at/news/stories/2698030

That means:

Burgenland - May 31
Styria - May 31
Upper Austria - September
Vienna - October 11

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll (Unique Research for "Heute", n=600):

(right-click for big version)



Best result so far for the FPÖ (28%).

SPÖ is recovering and the Greens are strong.

ÖVP is heading for their worst result ever (due to NEOS).

[Tender Branson]

A new Market poll today for the "Standard":

27% FPÖ
23% ÖVP
22% SPÖ
16% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

"Do you think the country is moving in the right direction ?"

22% Yes
67% No (worst result ever, since Market does polling)

"Do you think the SPÖVP government is able to cope with the current problems facing Austria ?"

20% Yes
80% No, unable to cope

http://derstandard.at/2000012654315/Nur-jeder-Fuenfte-glaubt-dass-Regierung-Probleme-im-Griff-hat

[Tender Branson]

The Styria state election will take place on May 31, together with the Burgenland state election.

http://derstandard.at/2000012672810/Steiermark-waehlt-am-31-Mai

That means only Upper Austria is left without a state election date.

[Tender Branson]

New AKonsult/Bezirksblätter poll:



Also, the FPÖ has invited Geert Wilders to a podium discussion in Vienna on March 27 with the title:

"Islamization as Europe's menace".



http://derstandard.at/2000012669357/FPOe-holt-Rechtspopulist-Geert-Wilders-zu-Vortrag-in-die-Hofburg

[Tender Branson]

Upper Austria has now set September 27 as the date for their state election.

The final calendar:

* May 31: Styria & Burgenland
* Sept. 27: Upper Austria
* Oct. 11: Vienna

http://derstandard.at/2000012824421/Oberoesterreich-waehlt-am-27-September

...

This Sunday, runoff-elections in Carinthia will be held. Especially the Klagenfurt runoff will be interesting (incumbent FPÖ-mayor vs. SPÖ-woman).

Also, municipal elections in Vorarlberg will take place to elect mayors and city councils in every town. The statewide result will be skewed by the many "Independent lists", most of them are ÖVP-aligned. The FPÖ and Greens are expected to do well, ÖVP and SPÖ should lose ground. NEOS is only running in a handful of towns.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖVP has finally agreed on a tax reform deal !

Tonight will be the last round of negotiations and tomorrow the party committees will debate it and sign off the result.

Tomorrow evening, Faymann (SPÖ) and Mitterlehner (ÖVP) will present it officially at a press conference to the media.

Details will only be presented tomorrow and there are only some leaks, for example that the tax cut will be worth ca. 5 Bio. € annually and focused on low- and middle-income earners. Families will get something too and there will be incentives for the lagging economy.

It will be mostly financed by adminstrative reform and by combating tax fraud. The SPÖ wanted a millionaire tax, which was opposed by the ÖVP. The compromise apparently is that high-income earners will now be taxed ca. 55% instead of 50%.

http://derstandard.at/2000012822781/Steuerreform-SPOe-beruft-fuer-Freitag-Bundesparteivorstand-ein

You can read my summary from a few months ago here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180261.msg4410171#msg4410171

[Tender Branson]

3 people of Turkish/Muslim origin running for the FPÖ in the Vorarlberg municipal elections this Sunday:



Vorarlberg has ca. 15% foreigners and 25% migration background.

Lately, some of them are running for the FPÖ ...

[Tender Branson]

SPÖVP has finally agreed on a tax reform deal !

2 of the best German economists and the SPD-budget speaker call the (income) tax reform deal "exemplary", "big and brave" and "an example for Germany and other EU countries because it strengthens social cohesion and boosts labour market conditions and consumption".

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/steuerreform-4-9-milliarden-steuersenkung-fix-finanzierung-umstritten/119.079.933#section-119081795

Good to hear.

Hopefully it will kickstart the economy after the tax reform starts on Jan. 1, 2016.

[Tender Branson]

ATV Austria Trend poll (n=500, March 5-10):

27% ÖVP
26% FPÖ
24% SPÖ
12% Greens
 7% NEOS
 2% TS
 2% Others

[Tender Branson]

Here's the English summary of the tax reform agreement:

Vienna (dpa) - The Austrian government on Friday decided on a tax reform that aims at boosting sluggish economic growth by lowering tax rates on low and middle incomes.

The tax relief would amount to 5 billion euros (5.3 billion dollars) per year, the coalition government of social democrats and moderate conservatives announced.

Most of this sum would translate into lower taxes for those earning less than 4,500 euros a month, said Social Democratic Party chief Norbert Darabos.

The government did not immediately reveal details of the reform, but media reported that people in the lowest income bracket would have to deduct only 25 per cent in taxes, down from the current 36.5 per cent.

The government plans to finance the reform by fighting tax evasion, closing tax loopholes and raising the tax rate to 55 per cent for the top income bracket.

"This tax reform brings more spending power, more growth and more jobs," he said.

The Austrian central bank said Thursday it expected the national economy to grow more slowly than the rest of the eurozone in the first half of the year.

The bank predicted growth of 0.2 per cent in the first quarter and 0.3 per cent in the second, compared to the preceding quarters.

The government is not only under pressure to deliver economic results, but also to gain voter confidence, as the far-right Freedom Party is leading in some of the latest opinion polls.

http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/austria-to-lower-income-taxes-in-bid-to-revive-economy_382300.html

...

Here are the new tax brackets:



Here is what employees will get annually in tax cuts (right), based on some income examples (left):



How the tax cuts will be structured and financed:



...

People earning less than 11.000€ a year are paying no income tax at all and will get an additional "negative tax" or better said a tax-bonus, when they file their taxes (400€ a year).

The reform bill will be passed in Parliament in July and take effect on January 1, 2016.

[Tender Branson]

Last poll by Gallup (conducted before the income tax reform deal was announced):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-gewinnt-SPOe-und-OeVP-stabil/180362506

SPÖ & ÖVP might gain a bit in the coming weeks because of the tax deal ... (or not ?)

[Tender Branson]

Styria state election (May 31) poll by Gallup:



Direct vote for Governor:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Voves-vor-Wahlsieg-in-Steiermark/180599031

...

As expected, SPÖVP heading for a big loss.

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections in the state of Vorarlberg today !

Polls close at 1pm and the race to watch is the mayoral election in the city of Hohenems, where the state's FPÖ-leader Dieter Egger is running for mayor. He hopes to win the city for the first time from the ÖVP.

...

Also, run-off day in Carinthia. The most important race is the run-off in Klagenfurt, the capital. FPÖ-mayor Christian Scheider faces SPÖ-candidate Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz. Polls close at 4pm.

...

Both races are expected to be close.

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections in the state of Vorarlberg today !

Polls close at 1pm and the race to watch is the mayoral election in the city of Hohenems, where the state's FPÖ-leader Dieter Egger is running for mayor. He hopes to win the city for the first time from the ÖVP.

...

Also, run-off day in Carinthia. The most important race is the run-off in Klagenfurt, the capital. FPÖ-mayor Christian Scheider faces SPÖ-candidate Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz. Polls close at 4pm.

...

Both races are expected to be close.

Hohenems:

45% Egger (FPÖ)
35% Amann (ÖVP-incumbent)

There will be a runoff in 2 weeks.

Update:

The Green Party (13%) has announced that they will back the ÖVP-mayor in the runoff against Egger (FPÖ), who is basically an anti-semite.

[Tender Branson]

Because election day cannot be often enough, a few pictures of people voting in Vorarlberg today:

[Tender Branson]

Klagenfurt mayoral run-off (capital of Carinthia & ca. 90% of the vote counted):



53% Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ)
47% Christian Scheider (FPÖ-incumbent)

...

That means:

* First woman ever elected as mayor in Klagenfurt
* First SPÖ-mayor there in more than 40 years
* Of the 10 biggest cities in Austria, there's no FPÖ-mayor anymore

[Tender Branson]

100% counted:

53.31% Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ)
46.69% Christian Scheider (FPÖ-incumbent)

http://www.ktn.gv.at/bgmstichwahl2015/BS2015_20101.html

...

2009 (they faced each other too in the runoff, but Scheider won big in the "Jörg Haider remembrance vote"):

63.99% Christian Scheider (BZÖ)
36.01% Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ)

[Tender Branson]

Final statewide municipal election result in Vorarlberg:



...

Final statewide municipal election result in Carinthia:



...

Next Sunday: municipal elections in Styria (all towns, except the capital Graz).

[Tender Branson]

First poll after the tax reform deal:



SPÖVP up slighly, but within MoE.

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections in Styria today (except the capital Graz).

The last polls close in 2 hours.

2010 result:

46.7% ÖVP
37.7% SPÖ
  6.5% FPÖ
  2.1% Greens
  1.1% KPÖ
  5.8% Others/Indy lists

Turnout: 77.3%

There has been a big administrative reform by the state SPÖVP-government in the previous 5 years. Before the reform, Styria had 542 towns. Now, there are only 287 left. The mergers led to a big dislike of the incumbent SPÖVP government, which led to the FPÖ coming out as strongest party in the 2013 federal election in Styria. Meanwhile, the anger about it has settled down a bit, but SPÖ and ÖVP will still lose big today (the ÖVP probably much bigger than the SPÖ).

I'll post the statewide result later.

[Tender Branson]

Final results of the Styria municipal elections today:

42.7% ÖVP (-4.1%)
31.6% SPÖ (-5.4%)
13.9% FPÖ (+7.3%)
  3.3% Greens (+1.2%)
  1.5% KPÖ (+0.3%)
  0.4% NEOS (+0.4%)
  6.6% Others/Indy lists (+0.3%)

Turnout: 73.4%

Despite more than doubling its share, the FPÖ won only 1 out of 286 towns. Independent lists won in 6 towns. Surprisingly, the SPÖ lost more than the ÖVP, which could indicate a tough battle in the May 31 state election.

A clickable map with results is here.

Map: