Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[windjammer]

What is NEOS?

[Tender Branson]

What is NEOS?

A socially liberal/economically neo-liberal party founded in late 2012 and successor to the "Liberal Forum", which had some success in the 1990s.

About Austria's FDP.

NEOS won 5% in the 2013 parliamentary elections and later polled as high as 15%, but has now fallen back to around 6-8% in national polling after a series of missteps and underwhelming election results.

https://neos.eu/neos-english

The weak share today for NEOS/Greens/KPÖ has to do with the fact that these were municipal elections. NEOS/Greens/KPÖ only ran in a handful of the 286 towns today and therefore this result is not comparable with state or federal elections.

[Tender Branson]

A new Spectra poll for the OÖN newspaper shows the FPÖ rising to the highest level so far in the polling for the September Upper Austria state election and they might overtake the SPÖ too for the first time, which would be a disaster of epic proportions for the Social Dems there:

40-44% ÖVP (2009 result: 46.8%)
19-21% FPÖ (15.3%)
19-21% SPÖ (24.9%)
10-12% Greens (9.2%)
03-05% NEOS (not running)
00-02% TS (not running)
00-02% BZÖ (2.8%)

Worst result for the SPÖ yet ...

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/Politikbarometer-Landes-FP-holt-die-SPOe-ein;art383,1727588

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for the Oct. state election in Vienna shows gains for the FPÖ and losses for the SPÖ-Green city government:



49% SPÖ-Green government
48% FPÖ-ÖVP-NEOS opposition

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wien-Rot-Gruen-verliert-Mehrheit/183126487

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In the scenario where Red-Greens and FPOVP are tied, who are NEOS likelier to jump in bed with?

[Tender Branson]

In the scenario where Red-Greens and FPOVP are tied, who are NEOS likelier to jump in bed with?

First, Vienna has an election system that favours the strongest party, which always means the SPÖ ends up with more seats than they would get proportionally. So, even if there's a tie, it will result in a majority of seats. Second, if they really lose their majority of seats, the SPÖ would look to the ÖVP as a partner. If they don't have a majority either, they might take the Greens or NEOS on board as well. NEOS is not entering a coalition with the FPÖ though.

[Tender Branson]

Vienna-FPÖ on the verge of breaking 30% !!!

New Market/Standard poll for the Vienna state election:

37% SPÖ (-7%)
29% FPÖ (+3%)
14% Greens (+1%)
12% ÖVP (-2%)
  7% NEOS (+7%)
  1% Others (-2%)

http://derstandard.at/2000013920336/Nur-knappe-Mehrheit-fuer-Rot-Gruen-in-Wien

It should be noted that the 29% for the FPÖ today is their best polling result so far in Vienna.

Ahead of the 2010 elections, the FPÖ polled 21-24% and then got 26% on election day.

If the FPÖ breaks 30% on election day, it would make Vienna the 2nd state after Carinthia.

[Cranberry]

... Thirty percent ...
Welcome to a three-party coalition in Vienna?

[Tender Branson]

April 2015 job approval ratings of major politicians:

OGM poll

[Tender Branson]

Another thing has been agreed on today, in a typical Austrian way:

Smokers to be banned from Austria's cafes

VIENNA (Reuters) - After years of heated public debate, Austria's government decided on Friday that it will ban smoking in cafes and restaurants in 2018, having passed a law six years ago that forced eateries to seal off non-smoking areas.

The Chamber of Commerce said it was looking at taking legal steps against the ban in a country famed for its cafe culture and where smoking is above European averages. France, Britain, Italy and some German provinces have introduced similar bans.

Cafe owners who go completely smoke-free by July 2016 will get a special one-off bonus to offset costs at least partially.

"We are strengthening the protection of non-smokers in Austria, but also take into account the interests of businesses which have already invested in the spatial separation of smokers and non-smokers," APA news agency quoted Conservative Economy Minister Reinhold Mitterlehner as saying.

http://news.yahoo.com/smokers-banned-austrias-cafes-111555183.html

[Tender Branson]

A new Gallup poll shows that a majority favours the new smoking ban that SPÖVP has agreed on:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/56-Prozent-fuer-totales-Rauch-Verbot/184209840

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland has a state election on May 31 and there's a new (rare) poll from this smallest state of Austria.

Hajek (done for the SPÖ, but the sample is 1000 - which means it's definitely not bad)

46% SPÖ (-2%)
30% ÖVP (-5%)
12% FPÖ (+3%)
  6% Greens (+2%)
  3% LBL (-1%)
  3% NEOS (+3%)

LBL (which is currently in the state parliament) and NEOS would remain out of it this time, because of the 4% threshold.

Direct vote for Governor:

56% Hans Niessl (SPÖ-incumbent)
24% Franz Steindl (ÖVP)

http://burgenland.orf.at/news/stories/2705300

[Zanas]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

[SNJ1985]

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

Liste Burgenland.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

B) The LBL (Liste Burgenland) is a independent party, only active in Burgenland. It popped up before the 2010 state election and consists of independent mayors in the state and also former FPÖ-people. They managed to get into state parliament in 2010 with 4.0000000001% or something, or 1 vote ! So, please don't tell me in the future that your vote doesn't matter ...

[Zanas]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me...

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland has a state election on May 31 and there's a new (rare) poll from this smallest state of Austria.

46% SPÖ

56% Hans Niessl (SPÖ-incumbent)
24% Franz Steindl (ÖVP)

The Burgenland-SPÖ has started their poster campaign today and Gov. Niessl is appearing on one poster without the SPÖ-logo, indicating that the party relies on his popularity (usually, the ÖVP does this). His main focus is creating jobs and a focus on young people. That's also a reason why the FPÖ sucks in this state.

[Tender Branson]

A new Gallup poll:

[Cranberry]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me...

I beg your pardon?

[Tender Branson]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me...

I beg your pardon?

In fact, Lower Austria is a much crappier state than Tyrol:

* It's the state of the "basement offenders" (Fritzl, Priklopil) and the dude who ran amok 2 years ago who shot & killed 3 police and a Red Cross worker and then burned himself alive in his basement as the SWAT team besieged his home.

* homestate of Hitler's parents.

* homestate of Erwin Pröll

Pretty much tells you everything you need to know.

[Zanas]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me...

I beg your pardon?

Well, looking at the results, it's a bit saner than Vorarlberg, I'll give you that.

[Cranberry]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me...

I beg your pardon?

Well, looking at the results, it's a bit saner than Vorarlberg, I'll give you that.

What is then the difference that would make you count Lower Austria as a sane state and not Tirol? It's beyond obvious that the latter is by far the best state

[Tender Branson]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me...

I beg your pardon?

Well, looking at the results, it's a bit saner than Vorarlberg, I'll give you that.

What is then the difference that would make you count Lower Austria as a sane state and not Tirol? It's beyond obvious that the latter is by far the best state

... almost the best state.



(I think we need to create a poll on this)

[Cranberry]

Good to see Austria has got at least one sane state where the FPÖ is polling in the low double digits where it belongs.

What's LBL by the way ? I don't remember hearing about them.

A) There are also 2 other states besides Burgenland in which the FPÖ does badly in state elections: Lower Austria and Tyrol. In Lower Austria, the FPÖ only got 8% in the 2013 election and in Tyrol only 9% (also in 2013).

While I agree on Lower Austria, I still wouldn't brand Tyrol as a sane state, but maybe that's just me...

I beg your pardon?

Well, looking at the results, it's a bit saner than Vorarlberg, I'll give you that.

What is then the difference that would make you count Lower Austria as a sane state and not Tirol? It's beyond obvious that the latter is by far the best state

... almost the best state.



(I think we need to create a poll on this)

Fixed that for you.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Constitutional Court today ruled that the collection and storage of all internet, landline/mobile-phone data by the government is UNCONSTITUTIONAL and that the government needs to STOP it immediately:



http://derstandard.at/2000002350932/Verfassungsgerichtshof-kippt-Vorratsdatenspeicherung

(The government has argued that there's strict data protection and that data would only be given to police in severe cases like murder/kidnapping/severe sexually-motivated cases and terrorism.

Last year, 400 people's online/telephone data have been directed to the police, including one prominent murder case, after which the police found the murder suspect in Tyrol with his phone data. The young suspect killed his girlfriend, drove with her body to the Inn river and dumped her in there. The police triangulated his phone signals and found out that the phone was logged in at the Inn river shore, while he said he was at home).

The court ruling is even more far-reaching than I thought:

The Constitutional Court wiped out the data collection and storage law completely, effective immediately.

The court didn't even grant the government the possibility to "fix" the law (for example for murder cases).

The court also ordered that the government needs to delete all stored data.



...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/dossiers/netzpolitik/640894_VfGH-hebt-Vorratsdatenspeicherung-auf.html

...

Ughhh, there's a new development:

* The BMI (Interior Ministry) and the Justice Ministry are working on bringing back a "data-storage law LIGHT". To prevent terrorism and organized crime and store the data for 10 weeks.

* What's even worse: a new OGM poll shows that Austrians back this initiative by a 2:1 margin, with only Green and NEOS-voters strongly opposed.



By party:

FPÖ-voters: 76-11 support
ÖVP-voters: 67-21 support
SPÖ-voters: 51-35 support

NEOS-voters: 26-65 oppose
Green-voters: 18-70 oppose

By age:

50+: 64% support
30-50: 51% support
<30: 48% support