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Tender Branson
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« Reply #925 on: May 15, 2015, 05:26:53 AM »

That means we are officially the new Sweden ...

You sound as if this was a bad thing?

Not really. I am happy that we help out asylum seekers in need (those from the war areas, not the economic refugees) and we should take up a good amount (10.000-20.000), which is sustainable - without creating a strain on municipalities.

But not 50.000-100.000, which is only playing into the hands of the FPÖ and is burdening finances and cities.

It would be better if the EU countries which are lazy in taking their fair share of asylum seekers (UK, Ireland, Poland, Spain, Portugal, etc.) would step up their game. Instead, there's an asylum seeker corridor from Italy, via Switzerland/Austria, Germany to Scandinavia.

But if we just shut out everyone past a certain amount, those poor people will still have no place to go. Of course it should be equally balanced, but this is the EU and not Utopia and it will take far too long to even come close to a solution. Meanwhile, the problem does not go away. Instead of playing small-minded as it can do so well, Austria should provide help for as many as possible, not just those twenty-thousand and no more. But as I said, this is not Utopia...

So, your solution is to let the whole world come in without any restrictions ? A small country like Austria simply cannot solve all the problems of the people from war areas around the globe by granting them asylum. We are already doing our fair share, it's other rich countries that are not doing enough and who are winding themselves out of responsibility.

That's what I call Utopia.

What you call "Utopia" would actually be manageable, if the political will was there and the cowards like UK's Cameron and the Eastern Europeans would grow some balls and take up some asylum seekers on their own. You simply cannot just always get the "pros" out of the EU-membership, like the "UK-rebate" in payments - you also have to take responsibility when it comes to tough questions like asylum ...

At least nobody can call us xenophobic anymore now, when we are taking in 60.000 asylum seekers this year (who all get basic assistance, btw). That's roughly the same amount as the US takes up, and they have 40x the population of Austria ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #926 on: May 15, 2015, 05:39:30 AM »

2 new Styria polls today.

Gallup:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Steirer-Wahl-wird-zum-Krimi/188475821

...

Market:



http://derstandard.at/2000015820141/Umfrage-Daempfer-fuer-steirische-Reformer
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Cranberry
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« Reply #927 on: May 15, 2015, 03:06:21 PM »

That means we are officially the new Sweden ...

You sound as if this was a bad thing?

Not really. I am happy that we help out asylum seekers in need (those from the war areas, not the economic refugees) and we should take up a good amount (10.000-20.000), which is sustainable - without creating a strain on municipalities.

But not 50.000-100.000, which is only playing into the hands of the FPÖ and is burdening finances and cities.

It would be better if the EU countries which are lazy in taking their fair share of asylum seekers (UK, Ireland, Poland, Spain, Portugal, etc.) would step up their game. Instead, there's an asylum seeker corridor from Italy, via Switzerland/Austria, Germany to Scandinavia.

But if we just shut out everyone past a certain amount, those poor people will still have no place to go. Of course it should be equally balanced, but this is the EU and not Utopia and it will take far too long to even come close to a solution. Meanwhile, the problem does not go away. Instead of playing small-minded as it can do so well, Austria should provide help for as many as possible, not just those twenty-thousand and no more. But as I said, this is not Utopia...

So, your solution is to let the whole world come in without any restrictions ? A small country like Austria simply cannot solve all the problems of the people from war areas around the globe by granting them asylum. We are already doing our fair share, it's other rich countries that are not doing enough and who are winding themselves out of responsibility.

That's what I call Utopia.

What you call "Utopia" would actually be manageable, if the political will was there and the cowards like UK's Cameron and the Eastern Europeans would grow some balls and take up some asylum seekers on their own. You simply cannot just always get the "pros" out of the EU-membership, like the "UK-rebate" in payments - you also have to take responsibility when it comes to tough questions like asylum ...

At least nobody can call us xenophobic anymore now, when we are taking in 60.000 asylum seekers this year (who all get basic assistance, btw). That's roughly the same amount as the US takes up, and they have 40x the population of Austria ...

If, if, if - that's exactly why I call it Utopia. Things are that the EU of today does not get things like that done because everyone picks just his raisins out of the cake and leaves the rest for the one that has the bad luck to be the one affected. Meanwhile, the problem does not go away. Meanwhile, people are are drowning while they cross the Mediterranean in ramshackle cuttlers, and if they get to land have nowhere to go. The only humane thing to do would be providing a f-ing shelter for those poor people and not lamenting "the others are not doing their share !!!1!!" and then even having the indecency to think good of oneself because "we are taking in so many of them!!1!". I'm sorry if this sounds a little angry, but this sh-t just makes me angry.
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #928 on: May 16, 2015, 09:24:14 PM »


Two questions:

1. What's the threshold here again?
2. "Steirer Wahl wird zum Krimi"?  Does that translate to "Styrian election is becoming a crime-mystery," or am I mistaken?  I understand they're trying to get the point across that it's exciting, but that seems like a strange metaphor to me.  Is Krimi commonly used to refer to suspenseful events in general?
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FredLindq
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« Reply #929 on: May 17, 2015, 06:59:08 AM »

Is Team Stronach still alive?!
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Cranberry
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« Reply #930 on: May 17, 2015, 08:41:58 AM »


Two questions:

1. What's the threshold here again?
2. "Steirer Wahl wird zum Krimi"?  Does that translate to "Styrian election is becoming a crime-mystery," or am I mistaken?  I understand they're trying to get the point across that it's exciting, but that seems like a strange metaphor to me.  Is Krimi commonly used to refer to suspenseful events in general?

1. 4%
2. Yes, Krimi is quite often used for suspenseful events, especially however for elections - you see Wahlkrimi quite often when newspapers report about close elections. So no, it does not all seem strange in German, I didn't even notice it until you mentioned it in fact Tongue


Officially yes, virtually they have been dead for over a year and have no chance to come into the state legislature of Styria, which is the only state they are running in this year, I guess.  They were stronger here only because Stronach is originally from Styria, and as he has departed for Canada again, his party is dead.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #931 on: May 17, 2015, 11:33:48 AM »


Two questions:

1. What's the threshold here again?
2. "Steirer Wahl wird zum Krimi"?  Does that translate to "Styrian election is becoming a crime-mystery," or am I mistaken?  I understand they're trying to get the point across that it's exciting, but that seems like a strange metaphor to me.  Is Krimi commonly used to refer to suspenseful events in general?

1. Styria is the only Austrian state which has no threshold for state elections. The 48 seats are allocated the following way: There are two "Ermittlungsverfahren" (seat allocation calculations) after the state election. First the Hagenbach-Bischoff method is used in the 1st allocation calculation to determine if a party has achieved a basic mandate in one of the 4 electoral districts. This basic mandate is a requirement to get "rest seats" in the 2nd seat allocation calculation, which uses D´Hondt.

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2. "Steirer Wahl wird zum Krimi" cannot be literally translated into English as in "Styrian election is becoming a crime-mystery". Rather, it means "Styrian election is becoming a nail-biter".

"Krimi" does not mean "crime-mystery", but rather the thrill that you get out of reading a crime novel. And yes, you often read the term Krimi when it comes to elections.

...


Yes, "alive" - but:



As you see from the Styria polls, they will be lucky to get 1-2%.

In Burgenland, they didn't even run an own list - instead they joined the LBL to run a joint list.
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #932 on: May 18, 2015, 02:30:36 AM »

* The "Young ÖVP" proposed a switch from PR to FPTP in the new party program. For this to pass, a 2/3 majority was needed from the delegates. The measure was rejected by 1 vote (66.58%) ...

Very interesting. Is this just the ÖVP proposing a shift from MMP to FPTP or a broader section of the Austrian electorate? And why would that be?

The reason why I ask is due to the fact that, here in Canada, the NDP and Greens are also proposing a reverse shift... from FPTP to MMP in order to make popular vote share match elected representatives.

BTW, the Canadian provinces of BC, Ontario, and PEI all have had relatively recent referendums on moving from FPTP to MMP (STV in BC`s case). All 3 referendums failed.
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Beezer
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« Reply #933 on: May 18, 2015, 02:53:53 AM »

But if we just shut out everyone past a certain amount, those poor people will still have no place to go.

So where would you draw the line? A million or perhaps two? How about doubling Austria's population? Anyway, they have plenty of places to go...it's not like they didn't cross other EU (or safe) countries on their way to Austria.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #934 on: May 23, 2015, 08:39:11 AM »

Explanation for the chart that Georg Ebner posted:

This week, all Austrian university students (ca. 325.000) elected their new student parliament and their "government" or representatives.

The current student government is made up of a leftist alliance of GRAS/VSStÖ/FLÖ and FEST.

The election results would make another term for them possible (29 vs. 26 seats).

AG = ÖVP
GRAS = Greens
VSStÖ = SPÖ
FLÖ = Indy, leftist
JUNOS = NEOS
FEST = Indy, leftist
KSV-LILI = Communists (anti-Stalin)
RFS = FPÖ
Liste = satirical list similar to the German "Die Partei" (The Party)
KSV = Communists (pro-Stalin)
Stulife = Turkish AKP

You can see the results for each university here:

http://fm4.orf.at/stories/1758985
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #935 on: May 23, 2015, 08:49:30 AM »

* The "Young ÖVP" proposed a switch from PR to FPTP in the new party program. For this to pass, a 2/3 majority was needed from the delegates. The measure was rejected by 1 vote (66.58%) ...

Very interesting. Is this just the ÖVP proposing a shift from MMP to FPTP or a broader section of the Austrian electorate? And why would that be?

The reason why I ask is due to the fact that, here in Canada, the NDP and Greens are also proposing a reverse shift... from FPTP to MMP in order to make popular vote share match elected representatives.

BTW, the Canadian provinces of BC, Ontario, and PEI all have had relatively recent referendums on moving from FPTP to MMP (STV in BC`s case). All 3 referendums failed.

In Austria, the ÖVP/NEOS/TS favour a switch to FPTP.

The SPÖ doesn't really have a position on it, but seems to be in favour of the status quo.

Greens and FPÖ are strongly opposed to FPTP and want to keep PR.

...

The last poll about this issue was not long ago: 35% support, 35% oppose, 30% undecided.

Talk about changing PR in favour of FPTP often comes up if the government in charge (SPÖVP) gets nothing or not much done and then they think FPTP solves everything ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #936 on: May 23, 2015, 08:56:14 AM »

But if we just shut out everyone past a certain amount, those poor people will still have no place to go.

So where would you draw the line? A million or perhaps two? How about doubling Austria's population? Anyway, they have plenty of places to go...it's not like they didn't cross other EU (or safe) countries on their way to Austria.

Exactly. I support the current system which is outfitted to house some 15.000-25.000 asylum seekers, but not the 60.000 that are expected this year without creating problems for municipalities such as finding enough living quarters to avoid these poor people ending up on the street. Every left-leftist dreamer is free to take up their own asylum seeker family though and house them in in their own apartment and pay the bill for them on their own ... It's not Austria who's not doing enough (we are), but other rich countries.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #937 on: May 23, 2015, 09:14:23 AM »

State elections next Sunday in Styria and Burgenland and there was an early voting day yesterday in both states.

In Burgenland, it was the first time voters were able to cast their votes early and 8.6% of voters did.

http://burgenland.orf.at/news/stories/2712514

In Styria, where an early vote day was established in 2005, turnout was 7.2% of voters (up from 5.7% in 2010).

http://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/steiermark-wahl-2015/steiermark-7-17-prozent-waehlten-vorgezogen/132.093.895

Total turnout should be around 70% in Styria and 75% in Burgenland.

Voters can also vote by absentee ballot.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #938 on: May 23, 2015, 10:13:03 AM »

* The "Young ÖVP" proposed a switch from PR to FPTP in the new party program. For this to pass, a 2/3 majority was needed from the delegates. The measure was rejected by 1 vote (66.58%) ...

Very interesting. Is this just the ÖVP proposing a shift from MMP to FPTP or a broader section of the Austrian electorate? And why would that be?

The reason why I ask is due to the fact that, here in Canada, the NDP and Greens are also proposing a reverse shift... from FPTP to MMP in order to make popular vote share match elected representatives.

BTW, the Canadian provinces of BC, Ontario, and PEI all have had relatively recent referendums on moving from FPTP to MMP (STV in BC`s case). All 3 referendums failed.

In Austria, the ÖVP/NEOS/TS favour a switch to FPTP.

The SPÖ doesn't really have a position on it, but seems to be in favour of the status quo.

Greens and FPÖ are strongly opposed to FPTP and want to keep PR.

...

The last poll about this issue was not long ago: 35% support, 35% oppose, 30% undecided.

Talk about changing PR in favour of FPTP often comes up if the government in charge (SPÖVP) gets nothing or not much done and then they think FPTP solves everything ... Tongue

Why on earth would NEOS favour FPTP?! They'd get slaughtered under that system.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #939 on: May 23, 2015, 10:23:47 AM »

* The "Young ÖVP" proposed a switch from PR to FPTP in the new party program. For this to pass, a 2/3 majority was needed from the delegates. The measure was rejected by 1 vote (66.58%) ...

Very interesting. Is this just the ÖVP proposing a shift from MMP to FPTP or a broader section of the Austrian electorate? And why would that be?

The reason why I ask is due to the fact that, here in Canada, the NDP and Greens are also proposing a reverse shift... from FPTP to MMP in order to make popular vote share match elected representatives.

BTW, the Canadian provinces of BC, Ontario, and PEI all have had relatively recent referendums on moving from FPTP to MMP (STV in BC`s case). All 3 referendums failed.

In Austria, the ÖVP/NEOS/TS favour a switch to FPTP.

The SPÖ doesn't really have a position on it, but seems to be in favour of the status quo.

Greens and FPÖ are strongly opposed to FPTP and want to keep PR.

...

The last poll about this issue was not long ago: 35% support, 35% oppose, 30% undecided.

Talk about changing PR in favour of FPTP often comes up if the government in charge (SPÖVP) gets nothing or not much done and then they think FPTP solves everything ... Tongue

Why on earth would NEOS favour FPTP?! They'd get slaughtered under that system.

According to their party platform, NEOS favours a mixed FPTP/PR system (like in Germany) with 60% of MPs elected by FPTP and the remaining 40% by PR, while lowering the threshold to 3%. Small parties (like NEOS) would get compensation seats. Their plan also has special elections in case some MP dies or steps down.

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https://neos.eu/programm
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« Reply #940 on: May 23, 2015, 10:29:31 AM »

Tender, is at always a binary PR or FPTP choice when reform is brought up? No mentions of say, MMP or STV?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #941 on: May 23, 2015, 10:36:36 AM »

Tender, is at always a binary PR or FPTP choice when reform is brought up? No mentions of say, MMP or STV?

The ones I mentioned above are the party plans for NEOS, while the ÖVP/JVP seem to have a few different models (but no STV). Don't know what the TS wants, don't really care either.

But as long as the SPÖ is unwilling to do reform on this matter and ÖVP/NEOS/TS are not entering a coalition with each other, any reform is unlikely anyway. There's no actual talk of changing the system right now, just party "plans" ...
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« Reply #942 on: May 23, 2015, 11:04:48 AM »

Oh whoops haha, didn't realise the conversation carried on in the next page.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #943 on: May 23, 2015, 12:09:42 PM »

New poll by Unique Research for "Profil" magazine (n=500):

27% FPÖ
26% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
13% Greens
  6% NEOS
  1% TS
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

19% Reinhold Mitterlehner (ÖVP)
18% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
17% Werner Faymann (SPÖ-incumbent)
  7% Eva Glawischnig (Greens)
  2% Matthias Strolz (NEOS)
37% Others/None of these

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-vor-spoe-und-oevp-5655059
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #944 on: May 23, 2015, 01:07:35 PM »

Ahead of the state election next Sunday in Styria, Gov. Franz Voves (SPÖ) is under heavy pressure from the FPÖ and is veering right as a last resort, promising to go after "integration-unwilling immigrants" because "it's a duty of Social Democracy not to ignore these problems and tackle them".

It's no secret that many former Social Democrats are abandoning the party for the FPÖ and apparently he thinks that he can keep them voting SPÖ ... but the recent polls are really swingy when it comes to the FPÖ (17-24%) and usually swingy poll numbers indicate an underpolling for the FPÖ. I would not rule out the SPÖ dropping below 30% and the FPÖ as high as 25%.

If his SPÖ drops below 30% (from 38% in 2010 and which is possible according to polls), Gov. Voves said he will resign.

http://derstandard.at/2000016106772/Steiermark-Voves-will-bei-unter-30-Prozent-fuer-SPOe-zuruecktreten
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Cranberry
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« Reply #945 on: May 24, 2015, 04:25:45 AM »

Lol at 37% of Austrians not wanting any of the joke figures that are our parties leaders as Chancellor Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #946 on: May 25, 2015, 02:56:04 AM »

Because it is unlikely that we are getting more polls this week, here are my predictions for the Sunday state elections:

Styria

29.2% SPÖ (-9.1%)
29.0% ÖVP (-8.2%)
23.5% FPÖ (+12.8%)
  7.6% Greens (+2.1%)
  5.1% KPÖ (+0.7%)
  4.0% NEOS (+4.0%)
  1.4% TS (+1.4%)
  0.2% Pirates (+0.2%)
  0.0% Others (-3.9%)

Turnout: 67.0% (-2.5%)

Burgenland

44.1% SPÖ (-4.2%)
30.6% ÖVP (-4.0%)
13.1% FPÖ (+4.1%)
  5.4% Greens (+1.3%)
  3.6% NEOS (+3.6%)
  2.8% LBL/TS (-1.2%)
  0.4% CPÖ (+0.4%)

Turnout: 74.4% (-2.9%)

...

Anyone else who wants to make a prediction ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #947 on: May 25, 2015, 05:51:56 AM »

I was wrong ...

There is another poll for Styria today (OGM for the "Kurier"):

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #948 on: May 25, 2015, 08:57:28 AM »

SPÖ, Greens & NEOS renew their calls for full gay marriage rights after the Ireland vote:

http://orf.at/stories/2280087/2280092

Doesn't really matter though, because they only have 46% of seats in parliament.

The right-wingers & blockers with their feet on the brake (ÖVP, FPÖ & Team Stronach) have 54%.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #949 on: May 27, 2015, 05:25:47 AM »

But if we just shut out everyone past a certain amount, those poor people will still have no place to go.

So where would you draw the line? A million or perhaps two? How about doubling Austria's population? Anyway, they have plenty of places to go...it's not like they didn't cross other EU (or safe) countries on their way to Austria.

Exactly. I support the current system which is outfitted to house some 15.000-25.000 asylum seekers, but not the 60.000 that are expected this year without creating problems for municipalities
So let us drown them all in the Mediterranian?
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