Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

Styria Gov. Voves (SPÖ) just told ATV that he'll have more time for his grandchildren after today ...

Does not sound promising for the SPÖ's chances today.

[Tender Branson]

1st projections in 5 minutes !

Live stream:

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/orf2.html

[Tender Branson]

1st projection - STYRIA:

28.3% SPÖ
28.3% ÖVP
28.3% FPÖ
  6.6% Greens
  4.0% KPÖ
  2.2% NEOS
  1.7% TS
  0.7% Pirates

[Tender Branson]

1st projection - BURGENLAND:

42.1% SPÖ
29.4% ÖVP
15.1% FPÖ
  6.2% Greens
  4.4% LBL 
  2.4% NEOS
  0.3% CPÖ

[Cranberry]

Wow.... That's quite the result from Styria...

[Tender Branson]

This projection already includes postal votes (which will be counted tomorrow):



Projection is based on 68.8% counted precincts and has a +/-1.4% MoE.

Turnout is around 67%.

...

Burgenland:



Projection is based on 43.2% counted precincts and has a +/-1.7% MoE.

Turnout is around 75%.

[Tender Branson]

In Styria, every city except Graz (the capital) is already counted.

29.7% ÖVP
29.4% SPÖ
28.7% FPÖ

...

I think when the postal votes are counted tomorrow, the overall result will be something like this:

29% SPÖ
28% ÖVP
27% FPÖ

The FPÖ always does badly among postal voters.

[Tender Branson]

About 50% counted in Graz and the FPÖ is only at 21% there, while the SPÖ has close to 30%.

It's pretty obvious now that the FPÖ will end up 3rd statewide after the full count.

[Hifly]

Wow.... That's quite the result from Styria...

Spät kommt Ihr - doch Ihr kommt!

[Tender Branson]

Wow.... That's quite the result from Styria...

Spät kommt Ihr - doch Ihr kommt!

[Tender Branson]

With 260/270 precincts in Graz in:

28% SPÖ
24% ÖVP
20% FPÖ
14% Greens
  8% KPÖ
  4% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% Pirates

http://wahl15.graz.at/ergebnisse/lt60101.html

[Hifly]

Wow.... That's quite the result from Styria...

Spät kommt Ihr - doch Ihr kommt!

Voves and his followers only realised the consequences of liberal immigration policy at the last moment. At least they realised, but it was all too late.

[Tender Branson]

Wow.... That's quite the result from Styria...

Spät kommt Ihr - doch Ihr kommt!

Voves and his followers only realised the consequences of liberal immigration policy at the last moment. At least they realised, but it was all too late.

This was only one part of the story though: remember that the FPÖ won Styria in the 2013 federal election already, when the asylum seeker influx was not a real topic.

The community fusions and social cuts that were imposed by the SPÖVP "reform" government still seem to play a big role and that's why the FPÖ did so well today.

Also, the collapse of TS and BZÖ helped them ...

[Tender Branson]

Bad Mitterndorf (hometown of Conchita Wurst):

34.5% FPÖ (+24.5)
25.9% ÖVP (-22.1)
21.1% SPÖ (-12.6)
  8.4% Greens (+4.6)
  5.4% KPÖ (+3.3)
  3.1% NEOS (+3.1)
  1.6% TS (+1.6)

[Tender Branson]

Styria is now 100% counted (excl. postal votes, which are counted tomorrow):

29.2% SPÖ
28.5% ÖVP
27.1% FPÖ
  6.4% Greens
  4.2% KPÖ
  2.5% NEOS
  1.8% TS
  0.2% Pirates

Turnout should increase by 6% tomorrow to 68%.

https://egov.stmk.gv.at/wahlen/LT2015/LT2015_60000.html

Adjusted for postal votes, the final result should be around:

29% SPÖ (too close to call)
29% ÖVP (too close to call)
26% FPÖ
  7% Greens
  4% KPÖ
  3% NEOS
  2% TS

[Tender Branson]

Maps:

http://orf.at/wahl/steiermark15/#analysis

http://orf.at/wahl/burgenland15/#analysis

[Tender Branson]

Final Burgenland state election result:

41.9% SPÖ (-6.3%)
29.1% ÖVP (-5.5%)
15.0% FPÖ (+6.1%)
  6.4% Greens (+2.3%)
  4.8% LBL/TS (+0.8%)
  2.3% NEOS (+2.3%)
  0.4% CPÖ (+0.4%)

Turnout: 76% (-1.3%)

...

Seats:

15 SPÖ (-3)
11 ÖVP (-2)
  6 FPÖ (+3)
  2 Greens (+1)
  2 LBL/TS (+1)

Theoretically, a ÖVP/FPÖ/LBL-TS coalition would be possible (19-17 seats) to break the SPÖ-led government streak since the early 1960s.

But it's unlikely. The most likely scenario is SPÖVP, with a small chance of SPÖ-FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Data from the Styria election "exit poll" (in Austria there are no exit polls, but election weekend polls of voters):

Vote by gender:



Vote by age:

[Tender Branson]

Even more devastating for the "Labour Party" SPÖ:

Among blue-collar workers, the FPÖ got 61% (!) yesterday in Styria and the SPÖ just 18% ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4743703/AuslaenderThema-verhalf-steirischer-FPO-zum-Erfolg-

[rob in cal]

   Any idea whether these elections will impact federal policies on refugees?  Also, what will Styrias new government look like?

[Tender Branson]

   Any idea whether these elections will impact federal policies on refugees?  Also, what will Styrias new government look like?

A) Not much will change of course. There's also not much they can do other than speed up the deportation process (which they won't do either). Basically, SPÖVP will continue like nothing happened yesterday and make the FPÖ even stronger. But there's a chance that SPÖVP will get the real bill at the Vienna state election in October, where the FPÖ is polling 28% right now and if they underpoll once again like they did in Styria or in Vienna ahead of the 2010 election, then ...

B) SPÖVP will continue, by acting like nothing has happened yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

Styria's postal votes have been counted today, which means the result is now final:

29.3% SPÖ (-9.0)
28.5% ÖVP (-8.7)
26.8% FPÖ (+16.1)
  6.7% Greens (+1.1)
  4.2% KPÖ (-0.2)
  2.6% NEOS (+2.6)
  1.7% TS (+1.7)
  0.2% Pirates (+0.2)

Turnout: 67.9% (-1.5)

...

Seats:

15 SPÖ
14 ÖVP
14 FPÖ
  3 Greens
  2 KPÖ

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland Gov. Niessl (SPÖ) today:

"I don't have much of a problem with SPÖ-FPÖ in this state."

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4744583/Niessl-zu-RotBlau_Sehe-keine-grosse-Hurde

[Tender Branson]

Looking deeper at the results, the capital city Graz basically saved the SPÖ and its 1st place statewide.

Not only was Graz the only district statewide which saw an increase in turnout, the SPÖ also lost only 3.9% there, compared with 9% statewide and up to 14% in the blue-collar dominated mining/steel areas of Upper Styria and the (car) manufacturing areas south of Graz.

On the other hand, the FPÖ "only" gained 8% in Graz, but ended up below 20% - while they gained 16% statewide and 27%.

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg poll by IMAS:

31-33% ÖVP (+3)
19-21% Greens (nc)
19-21% SPÖ (-4)
18-20% FPÖ (+2)
   5-7% NEOS (+6)
   2-3% TS (-6)

The current government is ÖVP-Greens-TS.

Most important issues that voters care about:

* 87% create/secure jobs
* 77% affordable living/house construction/apartments
* 69% fighting crime
* 69% reduce state debt
* 68% constructive state coalition work