Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

The election battle for Vienna (Oct. 11) is shifting into high gear.

FPÖ-leader Strache, who is running in the capital himself, has presented a plan for quick mass deportations of thousands of asylum seekers with military transport planes like the C-130 Hercules and the reintroduction of border patrols:

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http://wien.orf.at/news/stories/2717689

[Tender Branson]

Austria warns Hungary it will retaliate in migrant row


Migrants from Syria heading towards Hungary climb down a motorway near the Serbian border with Macedonia

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http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/austria-warns-hungary-it-will-retaliate-in-migrant-row-31327876.html

...

There were 7000 asylum applications in Austria last month alone. The interior ministry now says that because of the massive influx, the Ministry has to cut civil servants for the Red Cross this year, which are usually used to help transport old people to hospitals and back - because the additional money has to be spent on the asylum seekers.

This won't go over well with Austrian voters and the FPÖ can just chill and relax and reach new highs.

I think it's time to temporarily suspend the Schengen agreement, close the borders for the next 3 years or so and introduce massive border controls to send a signal to the 1000s of people all over the world that Austria is not the paradise they expect to migrate to.

If the Schengen agreement can be suspended to protect 7 world leaders of the G7 with 25.000 police members, it can surely be suspended to protect the Austrian population from a swamp of illegals and economic refugees until the situation in Syria/Iraq gets better, right ?

[Cranberry]

There were 7000 asylum applications in Austria last month alone. The interior ministry now says that because of the massive influx, the Ministry has to cut civil servants for the Red Cross this year, which are usually used to help transport old people to hospitals and back - because the additional money has to be spent on the asylum seekers.

This won't go over well with Austrian voters and the FPÖ can just chill and relax and reach new highs.

I think it's time to temporarily suspend the Schengen agreement, close the borders for the next 3 years or so and introduce massive border controls to send a signal to the 1000s of people all over the world that Austria is not the paradise they expect to migrate to.

If the Schengen agreement can be suspended to protect 7 world leaders of the G7 with 25.000 police members, it can surely be suspended to protect the Austrian population from a swamp of illegals and economic refugees until the situation in Syria/Iraq gets better, right ?

Please don't get all offended on this again, we both know we have massively different opinions on this issue; but this is a serious, sincere, honest question - why do you even vote/affiliate as Green?

[Tender Branson]

There were 7000 asylum applications in Austria last month alone. The interior ministry now says that because of the massive influx, the Ministry has to cut civil servants for the Red Cross this year, which are usually used to help transport old people to hospitals and back - because the additional money has to be spent on the asylum seekers.

This won't go over well with Austrian voters and the FPÖ can just chill and relax and reach new highs.

I think it's time to temporarily suspend the Schengen agreement, close the borders for the next 3 years or so and introduce massive border controls to send a signal to the 1000s of people all over the world that Austria is not the paradise they expect to migrate to.

If the Schengen agreement can be suspended to protect 7 world leaders of the G7 with 25.000 police members, it can surely be suspended to protect the Austrian population from a swamp of illegals and economic refugees until the situation in Syria/Iraq gets better, right ?

Please don't get all offended on this again, we both know we have massively different opinions on this issue; but this is a serious, sincere, honest question - why do you even vote/affiliate as Green?

Because I agree with the Green Party on the other 95% of the issues, just not on the current asylum crisis. Our spineless & incompetent government (SPÖVP) is applying no common sense here on this issue and with their back-and-forth mentality they get nothing real done. They are not only helping the FPÖ get stronger and stronger, they are also heading their own parties into the abyss and with it the country ...

[Cranberry]

There were 7000 asylum applications in Austria last month alone. The interior ministry now says that because of the massive influx, the Ministry has to cut civil servants for the Red Cross this year, which are usually used to help transport old people to hospitals and back - because the additional money has to be spent on the asylum seekers.

This won't go over well with Austrian voters and the FPÖ can just chill and relax and reach new highs.

I think it's time to temporarily suspend the Schengen agreement, close the borders for the next 3 years or so and introduce massive border controls to send a signal to the 1000s of people all over the world that Austria is not the paradise they expect to migrate to.

If the Schengen agreement can be suspended to protect 7 world leaders of the G7 with 25.000 police members, it can surely be suspended to protect the Austrian population from a swamp of illegals and economic refugees until the situation in Syria/Iraq gets better, right ?

Please don't get all offended on this again, we both know we have massively different opinions on this issue; but this is a serious, sincere, honest question - why do you even vote/affiliate as Green?

Because I agree with the Green Party on the other 95% of the issues, just not on the current asylum crisis. Our spineless & incompetent government (SPÖVP) is applying no common sense here on this issue and with their back-and-forth mentality they get nothing real done. They are not only helping the FPÖ get stronger and stronger, they are also heading their own parties into the abyss and with it the country ...

From what I have gathered in your posts regarding Greece, you are a massive supporter of austerity as well? That would make that two current big issues.

I believe we have led the discussion on what to do in the current refugee crisis before and we won't come to an agreement, so starting all over again seems quite pointless to me, I hope you understand. 

[Tender Branson]

A new Heute/Unique Research poll for federal elections shows the FPÖ moving further ahead and is about to break 30%. That is no surprise if you read my comments above, given how helpless the SPÖVP government currently acts with regards to the asylum crisis. The poll has a sample of 800 and was conducted June 18-25:

[DavidB.]

A new Heute/Unique Research poll for federal elections shows the FPÖ moving further ahead and is about to break 30%. That is no surprise if you read my comments above, given how helpless the SPÖVP government currently acts with regards to the asylum crisis. The poll has a sample of 800 and was conducted June 18-25:

The government should introduce border controls already and take this seriously, Austria can't be expected to deal with such a flood of refugees. If they don't do anything, they're a joke and basically allowing the FPÖ to win the next elections, which is something absolutely nobody will benefit from. Until now, Austria has truly been the best kid in the EU class, so I think it has enough political capital to do this.

[Tender Branson]

A new Spectra poll for the "OÖN" shows that the FPÖ has now clearly overtaken the SPÖ for 2nd place in the industrial heartland of Upper Austria, which will have state elections in 3 months. That's another nail in the coffin for Austrian Chancellor Faymann:

(right-click for big version)



http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/Die-OeVP-rutscht-ab-die-FPOe-zieht-der-SPOe-davon;art383,1875051

[Tender Branson]

Not much going on here politically at the moment. Some minor news:

* Upper Austria might get ÖVP-FPÖ after the Sept. 27 state election (after 12 years of ÖVP-Greens), according to Governor Pühringer (ÖVP).

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/ooe-chef-josef-puehringer-schliesst-schwarz-blau-nach-der-wahl-nicht-aus/138.948.777

* SPÖVP still has no clue how to deal with the asylum crisis as asylum applications hit 8.000 for the month of June.

http://derstandard.at/2000018312095/Konflikt-augestanden-aber-Loesung-bei-Asyl-nicht-in-Sicht

* The Team Stronach has to pay a 600.000 € fine because they spent 14 Mio. € during the 2013 election campaign, while the cap for parties was 7 Mio. €

http://derstandard.at/2000018308825/Team-Stronach-soll-eine-halbe-Million-Strafe-zahlen

* There is a petition drive under way right now for an Austrian EU-Exit, which needs 100.000 signatures to be debated in parliament. While the threshold could be met, of course there's not enough support from MPs for a withdrawal. The petition drive will vanish in a drawer.

http://derstandard.at/2000018218165/Volksbegehren-Alles-spricht-fuer-einen-EU-Austritt

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ surges to a new record high in the latest GMK/Bezirksblätter poll for the Sept. 27 Upper Austria state election:



Direct vote for Governor:



http://www.meinbezirk.at/linz/politik/umfrage-fpoe-am-weg-zu-30-bei-der-landtagswahl-d1401605.html

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ breaks 30% for the first time in a (Gallup) poll for the Vienna state election (Oct. 11):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-in-Wien-schon-bei-30-Prozent/194973364

For the SPÖ to lose Vienna would be a disaster of epic proportions ... In the 1970s, the SPÖ got 65% there and the FPÖ 5%.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Just a question regarding both the national level and in Vienna, would a SPO-Grune-Neos coalition work as a possible alternative to team Proporz or having the FPO in government?

[Tender Branson]

Just a question regarding both the national level and in Vienna, would a SPO-Grune-Neos coalition work as a possible alternative to team Proporz or having the FPO in government?

Even with today's crappy numbers for the SPÖ, there would still be another SPÖ-Green government possible in Vienna (49% vs. 47%).

And because Vienna has an election system which favors the strongest party, even more so (note how the SPÖ got 44% in the 2010 state election, but got 49/100 seats).

Which means NEOS would not be needed as a 3rd coalition partner.

On the federal level, SPÖ+Greens+NEOS is currently impossible because Black-Blue has a solid majority in all polls.

I don't know really what you mean with Proporz, because neither on the federal level nor in Vienna there is any Proporz. This remains only in Upper- and Lower Austria and Carinthia.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

any chance the SPO will topple Faymann?

[Tender Branson]

any chance the SPO will topple Faymann?

The party right now says there's no internal leadership debate, but we'll see if that's still the case after the coming brutal election defeats in September/October ...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Just a question regarding both the national level and in Vienna, would a SPO-Grune-Neos coalition work as a possible alternative to team Proporz or having the FPO in government?

Even with today's crappy numbers for the SPÖ, there would still be another SPÖ-Green government possible in Vienna (49% vs. 47%).

And because Vienna has an election system which favors the strongest party, even more so (note how the SPÖ got 44% in the 2010 state election, but got 49/100 seats).

Which means NEOS would not be needed as a 3rd coalition partner.

On the federal level, SPÖ+Greens+NEOS is currently impossible because Black-Blue has a solid majority in all polls.

I don't know really what you mean with Proporz, because neither on the federal level nor in Vienna there is any Proporz. This remains only in Upper- and Lower Austria and Carinthia.

Thanks. In regards to 'team Proporz' I meant the continuity SPO-OVP coalition at the federal level.

[Tender Branson]

Gov. Pühringer (ÖVP), who has a tough Upper Austria state election battle ahead in Sept., is now calling for the exact same measures like I did the last couple months (seeing how the FPÖ goes through the roof in their polling numbers):

http://orf.at/stories/2287822/2287823

Yes, the talk ... only talking but doing nothing.

As long as our incompetent, delusional SPÖVP government at the federal level continues to govern against the Austrian people in their politically correct naive world-view, nothing will change. Borders are still not going to be enforced (despite 60% of Austrians in favour of it), asylum seekers will still come in in record numbers and they will become homeless in the asylum centers or sleep in tents. 100000s of people with no education and no future, who the government lets in and this despite the 300.000 of unemployed Austrians. Good job in wrecking the country, SPÖVP.

Of course, Pühringer and his ÖVP as well as the SPÖ will get trashed at the polls because they are seen as "talkers", not "doers". And as long as this continues they will be their own grave diggers and continue to strengthen the FPÖ ... sadly.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's not clear what a country like Austria can do - especially considering its EU commitments in the areas of freedom of movements. Is Austria part of Schengen?

Personally the most pragmatic solution is obvious - let them in, across Europe.

[Tender Branson]

It's not clear what a country like Austria can do - especially considering its EU commitments in the areas of freedom of movements. Is Austria part of Schengen?

Personally the most pragmatic solution is obvious - let them in, across Europe.

Yes, we are part of Schengen. But that still doesn't mean that we need to have a highly permeable border, where 100.000s of asylum seekers are able to come in. What the government should do (like the Danes recently) is to severely increase border controls and intra-country controls to round up illegals and traffickers. The best solution though would be to temporarily suspend the Schengen agreement (which is possible) for some 3 years and introduce border checks and passport controls. If it can be done to "protect" the G7 world leaders, it can also be done for the general population. Unless our government is working against the general population and not for it ...

But you are right, the best solution would be to deploy the asylum seekers equally among member states, but well ... as we know most countries give a damn about asylum seekers (like the UK, Poland, Slovakia etc.) and that's never going to happen. All these countries are able to do is to shout "opt-out", "opt-out" ...

Of course I'm in favour of letting in some 20.000 asylum seekers into a small country like Austria, preferably women and children. But not the 100.000s that are now coming and who end up homeless in crowded asylum centers.

[Tender Branson]

A new poll for Upper Austria and a new all-time-low for the "labour party" SPÖ in this industrial heartland:

IMAS/Krone

[Tender Branson]

The new SPÖ-FPÖ government in Burgenland has been sworn in today.

[Tender Branson]

A new Heute/Unique Research poll confirms the FPÖ-surge in Vienna ahead of the state elections, with the SPÖ heading to a new low and the ÖVP to joke-status (below 10%):



http://www.heute.at/news/oesterreich/wien/art23652,1183483

The massive immigrant influx into Vienna, the topic of integration of these people and the topic of asylum seekers are what's driving the FPÖ surge (Vienna grows by 2% each year now, or 35.000 people).

Heute/Unique Research asked which topics are on top of the priority list for Vienna voters and immigration/asylum came out on top - twice.

Traffic and unemployment are just 3rd and 4th on the list, despite unemployment reaching record highs in the capital.

This is all terrible news for SPÖVP, who will get slaughtered at the October 11 polls.

[Tender Branson]

It's also interesting to see that in Vienna the former 13% of SPÖVP voters from 2010 that are now switching sides, mostly move to NEOS/Greens (+9%) rather than the FPÖ (+4%), which means only 1/3 of these switching protest voters vote FPÖ.

In other states such as Styria recently, the FPÖ attracted some 80% of former SPÖVP protest voters.

But the FPÖ is already polling around 30% in Vienna, which is a high level and therefore the gains of course will be much smaller than elsewhere.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm guessing the SPO > GrEOS defectees are angry at the SFPO coalition in Burgenland?

[Tender Branson]

I'm guessing the SPO > GrEOS defectees are angry at the SFPO coalition in Burgenland?

Some might, but in general this is not the reason.

Notice that SPÖ and ÖVP were already polling 36% and 11% before any SPÖ-FPÖ coaltion was talked about in Burgenland.

There are a variety of other structural causes why the SPÖ loses voters to the Greens/FPÖ and the ÖVP to NEOS/Greens and FPÖ.

More and more people see the SPÖ as a now degenerated version of what Social Democracy once stood for and only pensioners are remaining somewhat loyal to this party, while everyone else jumps off this sinking ship and joins the Greens or NEOS or the FPÖ. Basically, the FPÖ is already by far the #1 among working-age voters, while the Greens/NEOS perform well with the students. These are all groups where the SPÖ once did well, but over the last 30 years alienated these groups (their education policies turned off students and their labour/foreigner policies turn off the working-age population).

The same is true for the Vienna-ÖVP, whose voters switch mostly to NEOS and Greens.

In general, Vienna voters will send a strong signal to this dysfunctional/inept SPÖVP government that's currently running & ruining Austria with their policies against the people.