Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

Speaking of the Vienna state election:

20% of the Vienna electorate will have a migrant background this year (up from 18% in 2010).

In the last election, 16% of the voters with migrant background voted for the FPÖ - compared with 26% of all voters. This could increase to 20% this year, if the FPÖ also surges among migrant voters.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180261.msg4330839#msg4330839

The question is: Why do you think people with migration background are voting for a party that is anti-immigrant ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Broadly speaking both traditional government parties could do with a spell in opposition.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm pretty sure it's impossible mathematically to extract the OVP from government (barring some sort of Tangentopoli event)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Why do you think people with migration background are voting for a party that is anti-immigrant ?

Not all immigrants like other immigrants

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm pretty sure it's impossible mathematically to extract the OVP from government (barring some sort of Tangentopoli event)

Quite probably. But this does not change the fact that opposition would do it the world of good. Particularly as the protest parties would clearly suck balls at governing.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting additional results from the last federal Unique Research poll:

"Sometimes I feel foreign in my own country because of the big number of Muslims here."

44% Yes
55% No

"Asylum seekers are getting preferential treatment, relative to native Austrians (or in the sense of "it is made too easy for them")."

44% Yes
52% No

"Most asylum seekers are only economic refugees and are not in danger of political persecution in their home countries."

36% Yes
42% No

"Foreigners are generally more likely to be criminals than native Austrians."

33% Yes
63% No

"Would you mind it if an asylum seeker family (or group) of 4-5 people max. would be housed in your neighbourhood ?"

26% Yes
72% No

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1177846

[Tender Branson]

Why do you think people with migration background are voting for a party that is anti-immigrant ?

Not all immigrants like other immigrants

Yes.

Some articles I've read suggested that voters with migrant background vote for the FPÖ for 2 reasons:

* Like the general native population, they are also afraid that the foreigners coming in could "take their jobs" from them.

* The voters with migration background are mostly from former Yugoslavia and Eastern Europe, which means they could vote for nationalist/far right parties - which are strong in their countries of origin as well.

[Lotuslander]

A new Heute/Unique Research poll confirms the FPÖ-surge in Vienna ahead of the state elections, with the SPÖ heading to a new low and the ÖVP to joke-status (below 10%)

From far and away... one would logically think that the FPÖ would be somewhat repugnant in a socially liberal city such as Vienna. OTOH, the more moderate ÖVP would seem to be a much more attractive option for centrist/centre-right voters.

Obviously the asylum influx into Austria has changed the political world there - "upside-down" might be an apropos expression.

[Tender Branson]

A new Heute/Unique Research poll confirms the FPÖ-surge in Vienna ahead of the state elections, with the SPÖ heading to a new low and the ÖVP to joke-status (below 10%)

From far and away... one would logically think that the FPÖ would be somewhat repugnant in a socially liberal city such as Vienna. OTOH, the more moderate ÖVP would seem to be a much more attractive option for centrist/centre-right voters.

Obviously the asylum influx into Austria has changed the political world there - "upside-down" might be an apropos expression.

The pictures below were not taken in Lebanon or Jordan ... they are from the biggest asylum camp south of Vienna (which was built to house 500 asylum seekers, but is now "home" to 4.000 of them, with 1.500 sleeping in tents or simply on fields nearby - which means they are homeless. It should be further noted that because of our spine- and helpless government's refusal to shut down the borders and introduce massive border controls, there are now 400 asylum requests - each day. A new record. That's equivalent of 150.000 requests each year - or in US terms: imagine if there are 5.5 million asylum seekers coming to the US each year. This is the new reality that our reckless SPÖVP government has itself helped to create. The message that you can come to Austria, claim asylum, then get 800€ of basic assistance each month (despite not paying anything into the system before, unlike the retired Austrian grandmother on minimum pension who paid into the system for 40 years) has spread itself to the Middle East and Africa and now these people are coming in droves and are disappointed that they have to sleep on the streets here and that they cannot pick fried chicken down from trees in our "paradise of a country", like their asylum-seeking friends who came before told them over the phones ... That's the harsh reality: We simply cannot take up the whole world and house them here. The Austrians are losing their patience and those who come here now are not really better off than they were when they left their places in the Middle-East or Africa. Just recently it had 40°C at the Traiskirchen camp and in the tents it had 60°C and some refugees collapsed due to the heat. Then came the thunderstorms with massive hail. Also not cool for the people sleeping on the streets. And what if the winter comes ? Now even the refugees who came here recently beg: "Please, I want to get out of this place" ... Yes, we are not the paradise that they dream of.







http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4773658/Fluchtlinge-in-Traiskirchen-flehen_Ich-will-weg-helfen-Sie

[Tender Branson]

The Interior Ministry has now "outsourced" 500 asylum seekers to Slovakia in a major bilateral deal:

http://www.thelocal.at/20150709/slovakia-to-take-in-500-refugees-from-austria

[Tender Branson]

New day. New Vienna state election poll (Market for the "Standard").

And "Red Vienna" is slowly turning into "Blue Vienna", because the FPÖ is reaching another high @ 32% and has pulled within 3% of the long dominating city-SPÖ:



http://derstandard.at/2000018988710/FPOe-in-Wien-nur-noch-knapp-hinter-Haeupls-SPOe

[peterould]

Hi folks,

Just checking in to say "Servus" and join in the fun in what might be an extraordinary 12/18 months of elections in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Hi folks,

Just checking in to say "Servus" and join in the fun in what might be an extraordinary 12/18 months of elections in Austria.

Good to see you back. Maybe you are writing some comments here and then ...

[Tender Branson]

New polls confirm the FPÖ surge and the fall of SPÖVP:

VIENNA state election (Oct. 11) - Akonsult/Bezirksblätter



http://www.meinbezirk.at/land-oesterreich/wirtschaft/umfrage-zur-wien-wahl-fpoe-bei-32-prozent-rot-gruen-geht-sich-trotzdem-aus-d1416249.html

NATIONAL poll - Gallup/Ö24



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-zieht-weiter-davon/196552684

[Simfan34]

Time for FPÖVP!

[Hydera]

In case of a FPO-OVP coalition or Either of two forming a minority government with confidence/support from the other. Whats the chance that any future greek bailouts get voted down?

SPO is the only one thats much in favor of a bailout of greece.

Meanwhile FPO is very much against giving greece anymore money.

Whats 'Neos' party position on the greek bailouts?

[Tender Branson]

Time for FPÖVP!

Hmm. FPÖVP would only be possible with a completely different ÖVP-leadership. Django (= Reinhold Mitterlehner) has repeatedly ruled out such a coalition. But there's always the chance that there's an ÖVP leadership change after the 2018 election.

In fact, a change in government would be badly needed because this longtime incestuous SPÖVP government is wrecking the country more and more and leads to the degeneration of these parties.

What Austria badly needs would be a Green-NEOS coalition with 50%+ of seats (LOL), but with the NEOS policy on immigration (skilled immigrants) rather than the Green one (mass immigration without limits).

In case of a FPO-OVP coalition or Either of two forming a minority government with confidence/support from the other. Whats the chance that any future greek bailouts get voted down?

SPO is the only one thats much in favor of a bailout of greece.

Meanwhile FPO is very much against giving greece anymore money.

Whats 'Neos' party position on the greek bailouts?

The next bailout is likely due in Mid-2018, if Greece doesn't find a way until then to get back on their feet again.

This is right when the campaign for the 2018 federal election will start. The 4th bailout package could still be passed by SPÖVP then, because the new government is unlikely to be sworn in until the end of the year.

And you are wrong that the SPÖ is the only party that's in favour of a Greek bailout. SPÖ and ÖVP both voted in favour of this 3rd package just yesterday, while FPÖ/Greens/NEOS/TS all voted against - but for different reasons: The FPÖ wants a GREXIT, while the Greens voted against because they think the bailout terms are too harsh for the Greek people. NEOS wants a debt haircut and a structured bankruptcy and long-lasting reforms which makes the Greek economy sustainable in the long term. I don't know the TS position (nor do I care).

[SNJ1985]

I don't know the TS position (nor do I care).

This suggests that they support a Grexit.

[Tender Branson]

Another Vienna poll by Gallup:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-kommt-Haeupl-immer-naeher/196689089

And more bad news for the Vienna-SPÖ Not only did the party reach a new all-time low in this poll, the party will also get new competition in the state election because a Turkish list has announced that they will run their own party in the Oct. 11 state election.

This is a huge blow to the SPÖ, because Turkish immigrants-turned-citizens are one of the SPÖ's core voters. Of course it remains to be seen if the Turkish list can get on the ballot Vienna-wide (1.800 signatures are needed for that), but I could see them getting 2-3% and this is exactly the tiny margin that the SPÖ is currently ahead of the FPÖ.

Also, the FPÖ (which would actually benefit from this Turkish list, because it weakens the SPÖ) has strongly attacked the concept of creating a Turkish immigrant party within the Austrian political spectrum as a "foreign intervention".

Of course, all this helps the FPÖ to mobilize and move ahead of the SPÖ in the elections ... The worst nightmare of the SPÖ is coming true: They might lose Vienna for the first time ever.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Tuerken-Liste-will-Wien-erobern/196821752

[Tender Branson]

And if this is not enough, the Vienna-SPÖ now even wants all foreigners to have the right to vote in the state election.

It seems the SPÖ is doing everything possible to crash into a wall in a suicidal manner on Oct. 11.

http://derstandard.at/2000019360692/SPOe-will-Wahlrecht-auch-fuer-Wiener-ohne-oesterreichischen-Pass

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Even if the SPÖ completely crashes though, there surely can't be a non-SPÖ government? As I understand it the only ones who might be in favour to work with FPÖ in Vienna is ÖVP, and even that is questionable, right? Say the SPÖ goes down to 30% in the election, wouldn't SPÖ+GRÜ+NEOS be the only logical coalition?

[Tender Branson]

Even if the SPÖ completely crashes though, there surely can't be a non-SPÖ government? As I understand it the only ones who might be in favour to work with FPÖ in Vienna is ÖVP, and even that is questionable, right? Say the SPÖ goes down to 30% in the election, wouldn't SPÖ+GRÜ+NEOS be the only logical coalition?

You are right of course when it comes to the future coalition in Vienna: nobody wants to work with the FPÖ, not even the (more centrist) Vienna-ÖVP.

But it would be a symbolic defeat for the SPÖ if the FPÖ overtakes them on election day and it would almost certainly mean the retirement of the 21-year long mayor Michael Häupl.

[MaxQue]

And if this is not enough, the Vienna-SPÖ now even wants all foreigners to have the right to vote in the state election.

It seems the SPÖ is doing everything possible to crash into a wall in a suicidal manner on Oct. 11.

http://derstandard.at/2000019360692/SPOe-will-Wahlrecht-auch-fuer-Wiener-ohne-oesterreichischen-Pass

No, SPO is doing to right thing, ignoring the racists. If the racists ever reach a majority, it's time for EU sanctions.

[Tender Branson]

And if this is not enough, the Vienna-SPÖ now even wants all foreigners to have the right to vote in the state election.

It seems the SPÖ is doing everything possible to crash into a wall in a suicidal manner on Oct. 11.

http://derstandard.at/2000019360692/SPOe-will-Wahlrecht-auch-fuer-Wiener-ohne-oesterreichischen-Pass

No, SPO is doing to right thing, ignoring the racists. If the racists ever reach a majority, it's time for EU sanctions.

So, you are saying that applying an electoral law based on citizenship (which is done by 99% of countries) is racist - incl. Canada ?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hifly]

And if this is not enough, the Vienna-SPÖ now even wants all foreigners to have the right to vote in the state election.

It seems the SPÖ is doing everything possible to crash into a wall in a suicidal manner on Oct. 11.

http://derstandard.at/2000019360692/SPOe-will-Wahlrecht-auch-fuer-Wiener-ohne-oesterreichischen-Pass

No, SPO is doing to right thing, ignoring the racists. If the racists ever reach a majority, it's time for EU sanctions.

So, you are saying that applying an electoral law based on citizenship (which is done by 99% of countries) is racist - incl. Canada ?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm certain that Maxque is a right-wing plant who's objective is to make the Left look bad.
Or maybe he's just jealous he hasn't got Austrian citizenship?