Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[DavidB.]

I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

[Zanas]

I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

I think pretty much nobody wants to really work with Neos because they're a bit unpredictable, at least on the federal level. Plus SPÖVPG is alive and working well in several states.

[Cranberry]

I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

That would mean that the ÖVP would fully legitimise NEOS as a political force, which the current ÖVP still is not ready to do. They probably still think if they just wait and basically ignore them for long enough, they'll just go away (like the LIF in the 90ies), and that's what the ÖVP wants. They don't want competition to their remaining young-ish, urban-ish constituency, so they still hope NEOS will fade into oblivion just as any other liberal Austrian party so far has...
So, to come back to your question, ÖVP quite prefers the Greens as coalition partner, mainly because they're not at all competition.

[politicus]

I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

That would mean that the ÖVP would fully legitimise NEOS as a political force, which the current ÖVP still is not ready to do. They probably still think if they just wait and basically ignore them for long enough, they'll just go away (like the LIF in the 90ies), and that's what the ÖVP wants. They don't want competition to their remaining young-ish, urban-ish constituency, so they still hope NEOS will fade into oblivion just as any other liberal Austrian party so far has...
So, to come back to your question, ÖVP quite prefers the Greens as coalition partner, mainly because they're not at all competition.

But would NEOS not be more dangerous for them outside of government? Protest parties tend to become unpopular when they get responsibility.

[Cranberry]

I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

That would mean that the ÖVP would fully legitimise NEOS as a political force, which the current ÖVP still is not ready to do. They probably still think if they just wait and basically ignore them for long enough, they'll just go away (like the LIF in the 90ies), and that's what the ÖVP wants. They don't want competition to their remaining young-ish, urban-ish constituency, so they still hope NEOS will fade into oblivion just as any other liberal Austrian party so far has...
So, to come back to your question, ÖVP quite prefers the Greens as coalition partner, mainly because they're not at all competition.

But would NEOS not be more dangerous for them outside of government? Protest parties tend to become unpopular when they get responsibility.

NEOS is not really a protest party, and never was. It was always a party of more elitist people, and its rise before the 2013 elections was less a "populist" thing, but orchestrated from some old, grumpy people within the ÖVP (former Vice-Chancellor and Leader Erhard Busek, for example), and the so-called (largely liberal/conservative) "quality" newspapers (Presse, Salzburger Nachrichten, also Standard, though that's a left-wing-ish paper).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Young people vote for the OVP in a significant amount?

[politicus]

I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

That would mean that the ÖVP would fully legitimise NEOS as a political force, which the current ÖVP still is not ready to do. They probably still think if they just wait and basically ignore them for long enough, they'll just go away (like the LIF in the 90ies), and that's what the ÖVP wants. They don't want competition to their remaining young-ish, urban-ish constituency, so they still hope NEOS will fade into oblivion just as any other liberal Austrian party so far has...
So, to come back to your question, ÖVP quite prefers the Greens as coalition partner, mainly because they're not at all competition.

But would NEOS not be more dangerous for them outside of government? Protest parties tend to become unpopular when they get responsibility.

NEOS is not really a protest party, and never was. It was always a party of more elitist people, and its rise before the 2013 elections was less a "populist" thing, but orchestrated from some old, grumpy people within the ÖVP (former Vice-Chancellor and Leader Erhard Busek, for example), and the so-called (largely liberal/conservative) "quality" newspapers (Presse, Salzburger Nachrichten, also Standard, though that's a left-wing-ish paper).

Protest parties can also originate in the elite. Liberal Alliance in Denmark is very much an elite baed protest party. I assumed NEOS was broadly similar.

[DavidB.]

Protest parties can also originate in the elite. Liberal Alliance in Denmark is very much an elite baed protest party. I assumed NEOS was broadly similar.

They seem to be a "soft protest party", just like D66 used to be. Policy-wise, NEOS seems very similar to D66 (and probably Radikale Venstre). I think the issue with being in government, for NEOS, would not merely be about protest parties becoming unpopular in government, but about progressive social liberals becoming unpopular in a government in which they are the junior partner. Interesting point though.

Young people vote for the OVP in a significant amount?

Not really, but as a (somewhat) highly educated person on the center-right, ÖVP basically used to be your only credible option in the Austrian political landscape before the emergence of NEOS. Now, NEOS are quickly winning this type of young-ish voters, who didn't really feel attached to the "old" ÖVP in the first place: ÖVP doesn't quite reflect their values (and exactly this isn't so much of a problem with older ÖVP voters). I totally understand why ÖVP thinks NEOS are a real threat to them, because they are. Cranberry's analysis makes sense to me.

[Cranberry]

Young people vote for the OVP in a significant amount?

Some horribles, but yes, obviously not in a significant amount. Better way to describe that voting pool I was trying to get at is maybe 30-something yuppie with rich parents living in Vienna's posher inner city parts. You get what I was trying to get at?

[Cranberry]

I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

That would mean that the ÖVP would fully legitimise NEOS as a political force, which the current ÖVP still is not ready to do. They probably still think if they just wait and basically ignore them for long enough, they'll just go away (like the LIF in the 90ies), and that's what the ÖVP wants. They don't want competition to their remaining young-ish, urban-ish constituency, so they still hope NEOS will fade into oblivion just as any other liberal Austrian party so far has...
So, to come back to your question, ÖVP quite prefers the Greens as coalition partner, mainly because they're not at all competition.

But would NEOS not be more dangerous for them outside of government? Protest parties tend to become unpopular when they get responsibility.

NEOS is not really a protest party, and never was. It was always a party of more elitist people, and its rise before the 2013 elections was less a "populist" thing, but orchestrated from some old, grumpy people within the ÖVP (former Vice-Chancellor and Leader Erhard Busek, for example), and the so-called (largely liberal/conservative) "quality" newspapers (Presse, Salzburger Nachrichten, also Standard, though that's a left-wing-ish paper).

Protest parties can also originate in the elite. Liberal Alliance in Denmark is very much an elite baed protest party. I assumed NEOS was broadly similar.

You have a point, to that extent, NEOS probably is kind of a protest party. But in this early state (remember, the party is no more than two and a half years old), some guys in the ÖVP still probably hope they will implode and disappear at some point, which was what I was trying to get at. I don't think they will disappear in the nearer future, so you have a point with them being probably more effective outside government, but my point was made from the ÖVP's POV.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP did an internal poll the last few days in Upper Austria, about which topic is most debated among voters right now and in their families:

3/4 said "immigration/refugees"

Just 6% said "labour/unemployment".

This election will turn into an epic disaster for ÖVP-SPÖ, if these numbers are true ...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm a bit late to the party, but I also did the voter compass test.

NEOS 94
ÖVP   85
FPÖ 73
GRÜ -11
ANDAS -12
SPÖ -82

Not anything too surprising here.

[MaxQue]

The ÖVP did an internal poll the last few days in Upper Austria, about which topic is most debated among voters right now and in their families:

3/4 said "immigration/refugees"

Just 6% said "labour/unemployment".

This election will turn into an epic disaster for ÖVP-SPÖ, if these numbers are true ...

Like I said earlier, it's a glaring failure than Allies failed to de-nazify Austria, like they did with Germany.

[Dan the Roman]

The ÖVP did an internal poll the last few days in Upper Austria, about which topic is most debated among voters right now and in their families:

3/4 said "immigration/refugees"

Just 6% said "labour/unemployment".

This election will turn into an epic disaster for ÖVP-SPÖ, if these numbers are true ...

Like I said earlier, it's a glaring failure than Allies failed to de-nazify Austria, like they did with Germany.

To be fair the Austrians learned the price of failing to control their borders in 1938.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP did an internal poll the last few days in Upper Austria, about which topic is most debated among voters right now and in their families:

3/4 said "immigration/refugees"

Just 6% said "labour/unemployment".

This election will turn into an epic disaster for ÖVP-SPÖ, if these numbers are true ...

Like I said earlier, it's a glaring failure than Allies failed to de-nazify Austria, like they did with Germany.

To be fair the Austrians learned the price of failing to control their borders in 1938.

There's a joke around that the firebrigade of Bad Reichenhall (a small town on the Bavarian border to Austria) could overpower the Austrian Army and invade the country.

Anyway, your post is only half-right: There was basically nothing that could have been done in 1938 on the Austrian part to avoid being taken over by Nazi-Germany. They might have resisted in greater numbers (and they should have done so), but the will for this was not there because Austria was ravaged by the economic downturn & civil war and people saw the economic success in Germany and wanted to be part of that. Also, Hitler wanted it badly to incorporate his native Austria - the homeland - into the Great Reich. So, nothing would have stopped him in annexing Austria, and certainly no easygoing border controls ...

[Cranberry]

The ÖVP did an internal poll the last few days in Upper Austria, about which topic is most debated among voters right now and in their families:

3/4 said "immigration/refugees"

Just 6% said "labour/unemployment".

This election will turn into an epic disaster for ÖVP-SPÖ, if these numbers are true ...

Like I said earlier, it's a glaring failure than Allies failed to de-nazify Austria, like they did with Germany.

To be fair the Austrians learned the price of failing to control their borders in 1938.

This is like the biggest bs I've ever read in regards to the Anschluss.

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna-SPÖ recovers a bit, one month before the state election. The FPÖ remains strong, but may have peaked (unless there's a massive underpolling for them). The ÖVP is heading for a disaster, by dropping below 10% for the first time:



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1209823

[Tender Branson]

A new "marketagent.com" poll for the "Servus Journal" on "ServusTV" shows that Austrians are quite sceptical of the recent asylum seeker influx (n=506, Sept. 4-7):

* 64% of Austrians want temporary border controls

* 67% of Austrians think the media does not inform them adequately and balanced about the crisis

* 72% of Austrians think the migrant influx will lead to a so-called "Überfremdung" ("over-foreignization")

* 76% of Austrians think the SPÖVP-government has no credible concept to solve the crisis

* 90% of Austrians are concerned about the migrant influx

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150911_OTS0212/oesterreicher-fuer-grenz-schliessung-servustv-umfrage-zur-aktuellen-fluechtlingskrise

[DavidB.]

* 72% of Austrians think the migrant influx will lead to a so-called "Überfremdung" ("over-foreignization")

Not going to argue about the sentiment itself, but given its history in the nazi era, using this term in 2015 is like... not classy.

(For Austrians in general  - this is not meant as an attack at Tender, I don't even know if you would use this word.)

[SNJ1985]

The "election cabin" (Wahlomat/Wahlkabine) is now online for Vienna:

http://wahlkabine.at/app/ltw2015wien

My results:

FPÖ: 239
ÖVP: 78
NEOS: -103
SPÖ: -157
Grünen: -164
ANDAS: -205

[Cranberry]

* 72% of Austrians think the migrant influx will lead to a so-called "Überfremdung" ("over-foreignization")

Not going to argue about the sentiment itself, but given its history in the nazi era, using this term in 2015 is like... not classy.

(For Austrians in general  - this is not meant as an attack at Tender, I don't even know if you would use this word.)

Yes, but you have to keep in mind that the TV channel the poll was conducted for, ServusTV, is owned by Red Bull, and while apparently having quite nice documentaries about alpine wildlife and stuff, it's really the last thing you'd go to to expect proper, balanced news coverage. I haven't seen a term like this used in proper newspapers / TV stations, that's what I want to go to (well except the Kronen Zeitung, but whether or not you can call the Queen of the Austrian boulevard press a "proper" news source is again debatable...)

[DavidB.]

* 72% of Austrians think the migrant influx will lead to a so-called "Überfremdung" ("over-foreignization")

Not going to argue about the sentiment itself, but given its history in the nazi era, using this term in 2015 is like... not classy.

(For Austrians in general  - this is not meant as an attack at Tender, I don't even know if you would use this word.)

Yes, but you have to keep in mind that the TV channel the poll was conducted for, ServusTV, is owned by Red Bull, and while apparently having quite nice documentaries about alpine wildlife and stuff, it's really the last thing you'd go to to expect proper, balanced news coverage. I haven't seen a term like this used in proper newspapers / TV stations, that's what I want to go to (well except the Kronen Zeitung, but whether or not you can call the Queen of the Austrian boulevard press a "proper" news source is again debatable...)

Okay, fair enough. That's good to know. Do FPÖ politicians use this term?

[Tender Branson]

* 72% of Austrians think the migrant influx will lead to a so-called "Überfremdung" ("over-foreignization")

Not going to argue about the sentiment itself, but given its history in the nazi era, using this term in 2015 is like... not classy.

(For Austrians in general  - this is not meant as an attack at Tender, I don't even know if you would use this word.)

No, I do not.

I prefer to use the term "reckless, naive, uncontrolled mass immigration".

[Cranberry]

* 72% of Austrians think the migrant influx will lead to a so-called "Überfremdung" ("over-foreignization")

Not going to argue about the sentiment itself, but given its history in the nazi era, using this term in 2015 is like... not classy.

(For Austrians in general  - this is not meant as an attack at Tender, I don't even know if you would use this word.)

Yes, but you have to keep in mind that the TV channel the poll was conducted for, ServusTV, is owned by Red Bull, and while apparently having quite nice documentaries about alpine wildlife and stuff, it's really the last thing you'd go to to expect proper, balanced news coverage. I haven't seen a term like this used in proper newspapers / TV stations, that's what I want to go to (well except the Kronen Zeitung, but whether or not you can call the Queen of the Austrian boulevard press a "proper" news source is again debatable...)

Okay, fair enough. That's good to know. Do FPÖ politicians use this term?

Yeah, sure. It's the FPÖ, after all.

[politicus]

I haven't seen a term like this used in proper newspapers/TV stations, that's what I want to go to (well except the Kronen Zeitung, but whether or not you can call the Queen of the Austrian boulevard press a "proper" news source is again debatable...)

Why would that be debatable? It clearly isn't.