Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

The polls in Upper Austria will open between 7-8am in most cities and close no later than 4pm.

Most small towns will already close at noon or between 1pm and 2pm.

This is not a problem though, because it's actually the small towns that have the highest turnout in Upper Austria (80-95%), despite their polls being open for just a few hours.

There will not only be state elections on Sunday, but also city council and mayoral elections in all cities.

Postal votes will all be counted on Sunday evening as well, which means we should have an end result at around 8-9pm.

1.1 million people are eligible to vote in the state election, 1.3 million in the municipal elections (incl. all EU-citizens above the age of 16).

[Tender Branson]

Reference maps from the 2009 state election in Upper Austria:

Statewide result

47% ÖVP
25% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
  9% Greens
  3% BZÖ
  1% Others (KPÖ, CPÖ)

...

Map of Upper Austria districts:



...

Winning party by town



ÖVP strength by town



SPÖ strength by town



FPÖ strength by town



Greens strength by town



BZÖ strength by town



KPÖ strength by town



CPÖ strength by town



Turnout by town

[Tender Branson]

As you can see from the maps, the SPÖ does much better in the southern and eastern regions of Upper Austria, when compared with the northern and western regions.

This can be explained with the following:

The southern lakes region (Salzkammergut) is home to:

* some majority-Protestant towns, such as Gosau/Bad Goisern/Hallstatt - in a largely Catholic state

* many old people (who mostly vote SPÖ and ÖVP)

* a long standing, traditional wood manufacturing area, with its workers aligned with the Socialists and unions for well over a century

...

On the other hand, the central and western part of Upper Austria (the so-called Innviertel and Hausruckviertel) are were the FPÖ has their best results.

This is mostly because the Innviertel for a long time belonged to the Bavarians and was situated on the periphery and suddenly in the 18th century they had to adopt the new Austrian centralism. Even today, they are not really properly connected to the Linz-Wels capital area.

The ÖVP does best in the northern and north-western rural/conservative/agricultural areas.

The center part of the state (Linz, Wels & suburbs, as well as the huge Vöcklabruck district will be the battlegrounds, in which the FPÖ will mobilize and gain ground massively as well. This is where most middle-class families and voters live.

The Linz-Wels area, as well as Steyr, are also huge steel- and car-part manufacturing areas - with a history of massive SPÖ-voting. But the FPÖ will heavily eat into these votes as well. On Sunday, you can watch the self-inflicted destruction of the former "labour party" SPÖ in this arch-industrial state ...

[Tender Branson]

The Upper Austria ÖVP is now seriously nervous and thinks they might lose the state to the FPÖ:

http://www.krone.at/Oberoesterreich/OeVP_befuerchtet_Josef_Puehringers_Abwahl-Umbruch_verhindern-Story-473579

Probably only a last-minute mobilisation effort, but yeah ... this could get ugly.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If the ÖVP comes in first, which I assume they will, but FPÖ still does as well as they're expected to, how likely is a ÖVP+FPÖ coalition to follow?

[Tender Branson]

If the ÖVP comes in first, which I assume they will, but FPÖ still does as well as they're expected to, how likely is a ÖVP+FPÖ coalition to follow?

Currently the state has a ÖVP-Green "working agreement", because Upper Austria has Proporz (SPÖ and FPÖ are in the state government too).

If ÖVP-Greens are voted out (which would be strange, considering they have a 70% approval rating), the ÖVP could choose the SPÖ or the FPÖ as their new partner.

I don't know who they will pick, but they have not ruled out the FPÖ.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Upper Austria has Proporz (SPÖ and FPÖ are in the state government too).

I'm assuming that Proporz means this state government uses a similar system as Swedish municipalities and all parties who are proportionally big enough gets into the government's executive board, but where there is an unofficial majority (ÖVP+Grüne) that cooperates on budget matters. Would that be correct?

[Tender Branson]

Upper Austria has Proporz (SPÖ and FPÖ are in the state government too).

I'm assuming that Proporz means this state government uses a similar system as Swedish municipalities and all parties who are proportionally big enough gets into the government's executive board, but where there is an unofficial majority (ÖVP+Grüne) that cooperates on budget matters. Would that be correct?

Yes, exactly.

[Tender Branson]

Absentee/postal ballot requests and returns so far are breaking all previous records in Upper Austria, according to the ORF.

http://orf.at/wahl/story/2733419.html

Tomorrow is the last day to request one.

I'm hoping that turnout will increase on Sunday (maybe to 82%), but you can never be sure: In other state elections recently, there have been higher absentee requests too, but overall turnout still decreased.

But the asylum topic could definitely lead to more people voting this time.

[Tender Branson]

This is how the capital city Linz and its districts voted in the 2009 state election:



The FPÖ needs to gain strongly in the city if it wants to end up 1st statewide, or above 30% at least.

Remember that in the May state election in Styria, the SPÖ did "relatively well" in the capital Graz (losing only a few %, while losing 10% statewide), therefore preventing the FPÖ from winning statewide.

Also notice how the FPÖ already got 40%+ in the district called "Industrial Area - Harbor" (where the VOEST steelworks are located) in 2009, when city and statewide it only got 15%.

[Tender Branson]

I almost died when reading this article:

SPÖ will mit "Rotem Telefon" näher an die Bürger

(SPÖ wants to connect with voters by using the "Red Telephone")



SP-Bundesgeschäftsführer Gerhard Schmid präsentiert das Rote Telefon, hier im Bild mit SP-Kommunikationschef Matthias Euler-Rolle.

(SPÖ-secretary general Gerhard Schmid presents the Red Telephone, pictured together with SPÖ-communication chief Matthias Euler-Rolle.)

http://derstandard.at/2000022724859/SPOe-will-mit-Rotem-Telefon-naeher-an-die-Buerger

Like it's straight out of the "Onion" ...

[Tender Branson]

NEOS is out with their final poster campaign in Vienna, using a "Fight-Club" themed poster and NEOS-soap:



"NEOS ... is effective (or works) ... against brown dots. Change for Vienna. Without Strache."

"NEOS ... is effective (or works) ... against (lazy/stagnant) pork politics. We'll cut the Vienna city council in half and reduce public party financing."

[DavidB.]

"Braune Flecken" is aimed at FPÖ?

[Tender Branson]

"Braune Flecken" is aimed at FPÖ?

Of course.

"brown dots" is a reference to Nazis and the FPÖ.

The poster says roughly that NEOS wants to clean Vienna from the FPÖ and Nazis.

In effect, they want to get a good share of the left-wing protest vote that would otherwise go to the Greens and Wien Anders.

[Tender Branson]

Something completely different:

Alexander Van der Bellen - the likely Green Party candidate for President next year and leader in the polls - said in an interview that he would not swear in a FPÖ-led government (incl. a FPÖ-Chancellor) after the 2018 federal election.

That is of course good news for his [likely] campaign, because Green-affiliated voters like to hear statements like this one.

But democratically speaking it's controversial, because it could be argued that the party who comes in 1st in 2018 has some kind of "right" to form the government (or lead it). Of course it does not, as we all know from 1999 - but it would still send a bad signal if the President would not swear in a government that is led by a party "he does not like" ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-Kein-FPOe-Kanzler/205817589

[DavidB.]

In practical terms: Whatever. It's not as if he has a serious chance to become president, right?

In theoretical terms: While I admire his personal ethics on this issue, I do think it would be wiser for people not to politicize an office that should be ceremonial.

[Tender Branson]

In practical terms: Whatever. It's not as if he has a serious chance to become president, right?

In theoretical terms: While I admire his personal ethics on this issue, I do think it would be wiser for people not to politicize an office that should be ceremonial.

He'd be the best candidate that the Greens could put up and he could even make the runoff.

But if Pröll is running for the ÖVP, he would beat VdB in the runoff I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Back to Upper Austria:

More than 132.000 absentee/postal ballots have been requested for this election.

That is wayyyy up from the 93.000 in the 2009 election (+42%) and could indeed point to overall turnout remaining high at around 80% tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

The new Vienna poll by Unique Research for the "Kronen Zeitung" shows both the SPÖ and FPÖ gaining in the final 2 weeks, while the ÖVP reaches a new low. Greens and NEOS are getting crushed by the SPÖ-FPÖ bitchfight as well (n=1.000):



http://www.krone.at/Wien/Wien-Wahl_Strache_kann_Haeupl_noch_ueberholen-Krone-Umfrage-Story-473979

[Tender Branson]

I'll start my Upper Austria election coverage tomorrow at some point in the afternoon.

The weather is perfect for voting tomorrow, cloudy/misty/cold-ish with some chance of rain. Basically the weather where you can do almost nothing other than voting ...

The polls close at 4pm, which is when the 1st projection by SORA is released for the ORF.

[Tender Branson]

Another 10.000 migrants arrived at the Burgenland border today, which means the newspapers will all be full with it tomorrow:



I cannot think of any better "climate" for a likely FPÖ-win, given these headlines.

At least I would not be surprised if they do.

[DavidB.]

The polls close at 4pm, which is when the 1st projection by SORA is released for the ORF.

Seems really early. People have little time to vote then, if they have something to do in the morning (church/sports)...

[Tender Branson]

The polls close at 4pm, which is when the 1st projection by SORA is released for the ORF.

Seems really early. People have little time to vote then, if they have something to do in the morning (church/sports)...

4pm is not "early". Why waste the remaining Sunday with keeping polls open and vote counting (like it's done in other countries) and only get an end result at midnight ?

Makes no sense to me. Most precincts are within a 5 minute walk or drive, so voting is really easy and quick. Some small towns only keep their polls open from 8am to 1pm and have 90% turnout ... voting is not that hard.

[Tender Branson]

Good morning !

Today, state elections in the important state of Upper Austria take place. Polls are already open in most cities, or will open in the next minutes.

1.1 million voters above the age of 16 are eligible to vote in the state election. 1.2 million voters (incl. EU citizens) are allowed to vote in the municipal elections and referendums.



All of Europe is watching this election, which will be the first trial balloon during the asylum crisis.

The voters of Upper Austria are expected to deliver a solid trashing to the ÖVP (which finally has to step down from its high horse) and the SPÖ (by decimating this former "labour" party in this industrial heartland), while lifting the FPÖ to levels never seen so far in this state. The Greens and NEOS are expected to underperform, because they got crushed during the election campaign by the attention that the FPÖ and ÖVP got in the media.

Not that I necessarily like the coming trashing, but it is badly needed to show the ignorant Faymann & Co. (incl. Merkel) the middle-finger. Constantly neglecting the needs of Austrian citizens in favour of hordes of illegals is the wrong way to go.

Get ready for a major political earthquake today. I already got the popcorn:

[palandio]

The polls close at 4pm, which is when the 1st projection by SORA is released for the ORF.

Seems really early. People have little time to vote then, if they have something to do in the morning (church/sports)...

The usual procedure is to go to church in the morning and then to vote directly after that. In many cases the town hall or elementary school where you vote is directly next to the church.
In fact parties like the ÖVP (CDU/CSU in Germany) get a vote share before noon that is clearly higher than the vote share they will get in the afternoon. Exit-polls (which often cannot include the last one or two ours) are adjusted for that effect.