Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[politicus]

Seems like an epic fail that this has been leaked to the media. Reports like this should remain confidential for a reason. Is it Mikl-Leitner who is in charge of this? She will hopefully face serious questions about this.

Also, I cannot think of a better start of the final week of campaigning for the FPÖ.

I am more interested in the content than the political consequences, because it raises a couple of obvious points. And while its mostly things you could imagine for yourself it is always chilling to have those things pointed out in an official report. No matter how you feel about immigration and refugees the way this is developing is a severe security risk.

[Simfan34]

2 more Team Stronach MPs switched to the ÖVP parliamentary club today (after 2 did so in June):



This is a massive blow to the Team Stronach, which is already in a "death fight" and with Kathrin Nachbaur switching - even more so. Nachbaur was once Frank Stronach's "girl for everything" and his closest friend.

http://derstandard.at/2000020092796/Nachbaur-und-Ertlschweiger-wechseln-von-Stronach-in-OeVP-Klub

This means NEOS now has more MPs than Team Stronach (9 vs. 7) and that the ÖVP has almost overtaken the SPÖ in terms of seats (51 vs. 52):



2 are currently Indys (ex-FPÖ MPs that were thrown out of the party).

What would happen if the ÖVP overtook the SPÖ in seats? Would they have to swap out Feynman?

[Cranberry]

What would happen if the ÖVP overtook the SPÖ in seats? Would they have to swap out Feynman?

Unless the ÖVP ends the coalition, nothing really.

[Tender Branson]

Quick move to the 2016 presidential election, which basically starts after the Vienna state election is done.

Today, Josef Moser (President of the Austrian Court of Audit) said that "he won't rule out running for President" and the he "certainly won't retire with 60, but do something positive instead with his experience".

Moser, a highly competent guy who's no Nazi or said anything Nazi-related, would enter the race for the FPÖ and he's probably the best candidate that the FPÖ can find, even though most FPÖ-voters don't give a damn about the Presidency and would rather want to abolish that office.

For the Greens, former party leader and professor Alexander Van der Bellen also looks likely to be "in" soon.

For the SPÖ, Minister for Labour Rudolf Hundstorfer also looks like 99.9% in.

That leaves the ÖVP and NEOS without candidates (even though Erwin Pröll looks likely to jump in for the former).

And then there's Irmgard Griss, who led the HYPO bad bank investigation commission which heavily attacked SPÖVP-FPÖ for their handling of this scandal bank. She might either run for the ÖVP (if Pröll does not), as an Independent or as a joint candidate for SPÖVP.

http://orf.at/stories/2302274

[Tender Branson]

The big 90-minute "elephant debate" for Vienna will take place tomorrow during prime-time, starting at 8:15pm. It will be a joint event by the ORF and PULS4 and the 5 leading candidates from SPÖ (mayor Michael Häupl), FPÖ (H.C. Strache), Greens (Maria Vassilakou), ÖVP (Manfred Juraczka) and NEOS (Beate Meinl-Reisinger) will take part. 200 people will be in the audience.

[Tender Branson]

Another reason why the FPÖ is rising so fast in Vienna, aside from the asylum chaos, might be the exploding unemployment numbers:

In September 2008, Vienna had 62.000 registered unemployed and 17.000 in training (who are also collecting unemployment money). A total of 79.000 persons out of work.

In September 2015, the numbers were 119.000 and 28.000 (for a total of 147.000 unemployed) - which means an increase of 86% in the past 7 years !

The number of employed has only increased from 780.000 to 810.000 (+4%) in the same time span.

The unemployment rate has increased from 9.2% to 15.4% (and that number is much higher in working-class districts such as Simmering and Favoriten, where the FPÖ is projected to get 40%+ next Sunday).

http://www.ams.at/_docs/001_uebersicht_aktuell.pdf

...

For comparison: The unemployment rate in the district I live in (Zell am See) was just 3.5% in September and it was ranked in the lowest 3 in Austria. Pretty much tells you how different Vienna is ...

[Tender Branson]

Wow, that's crazy:

The FPÖ apparently thinks the SPÖ will "steal" the election somehow and offers 5.000€ for voters to report any "irregularity or fraud" in next Sunday's vote. The amount will only be paid though if someone is convicted and sentenced by a court for voter fraud ...

That's really ridiculous, because the FPÖ has one of their guys sitting in every single election commission in each of the 1.500 voting precincts. If there'd be "voter fraud" (and I'm not aware of a case in Austria recently), their guy in the election commission would notice it, right ?



http://derstandard.at/2000023184628/Wien-Wahl-FPOe-zahlt-5000-Euro-fuer-Hinweise-auf-Wahlbetrug

[DavidB.]

Wow, that's crazy:

The FPÖ apparently thinks the SPÖ will "steal" the election somehow and offers 5.000€ for voters to report any "irregularity or fraud" in next Sunday's vote. The amount will only be paid though if someone is convicted and sentenced by a court for voter fraud ...

That's really ridiculous, because the FPÖ has one of their guys sitting in every single election commission in each of the 1.500 voting precincts. If there'd be "voter fraud" (and I'm not aware of a case in Austria recently), their guy in the election commission would notice it, right ?

[photo]

http://derstandard.at/2000023184628/Wien-Wahl-FPOe-zahlt-5000-Euro-fuer-Hinweise-auf-Wahlbetrug

I think they don't really think that the SPÖ will steal the election, but that this is just a tactic to boost turnout among angry voters who might stay home otherwise.

[Tender Branson]

Since Vienna is the only state in Austria in which all precincts are open from 7am to 5pm, it is also the only state in which ORF/SORA will exclusively use an "exit poll" for their first projection at 5pm (because, unlike in other states, no precinct is already counted which could be used for a projection). The first actual projection with already-counted precincts will come at 6pm.

Also, unlike Upper Austria, Vienna does not count postal votes on election day. Those will be counted on Monday in the late afternoon/evening.

Because it is expected that 20-25% of the total vote will be postal votes, we definitely won't know who won by Sunday night (unless there's a blowout for either SPÖ or FPÖ).

[Tender Branson]

The big 90-minute "elephant debate" for Vienna will take place tomorrow during prime-time, starting at 8:15pm. It will be a joint event by the ORF and PULS4 and the 5 leading candidates from SPÖ (mayor Michael Häupl), FPÖ (H.C. Strache), Greens (Maria Vassilakou), ÖVP (Manfred Juraczka) and NEOS (Beate Meinl-Reisinger) will take part. 200 people will be in the audience.

Debate starts in 20 minutes.

Live stream:

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/orf2.html

[republicanbayer]

The big 90-minute "elephant debate" for Vienna will take place tomorrow during prime-time, starting at 8:15pm. It will be a joint event by the ORF and PULS4 and the 5 leading candidates from SPÖ (mayor Michael Häupl), FPÖ (H.C. Strache), Greens (Maria Vassilakou), ÖVP (Manfred Juraczka) and NEOS (Beate Meinl-Reisinger) will take part. 200 people will be in the audience.

Debate starts in 20 minutes.

Live stream:

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/orf2.html

What was your impression of the debate?

[Tender Branson]

The big 90-minute "elephant debate" for Vienna will take place tomorrow during prime-time, starting at 8:15pm. It will be a joint event by the ORF and PULS4 and the 5 leading candidates from SPÖ (mayor Michael Häupl), FPÖ (H.C. Strache), Greens (Maria Vassilakou), ÖVP (Manfred Juraczka) and NEOS (Beate Meinl-Reisinger) will take part. 200 people will be in the audience.

Debate starts in 20 minutes.

Live stream:

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/orf2.html

What was your impression of the debate?

First, I liked the format: Everyone was sitting in a half-circle next to each other, instead of the stiff US-like format in which everyone stands on a podium and has a minute to talk and then there's a sound to stop talking. Instead, every candidate could talk for a few minutes and then the other candidates had a chance to respond:



Secondly, the audience was extremely biased in favour of Red-Green - shouting and applauding orgiastically all the time when Häupl (SPÖ) and Vassilakou (Greens) said anything or attacked Strache, while almost never applauding when Strache/Jurazca/Meinl-Reisinger said anything.

Thirdly, this (Vienna !!!) debate was watched by 1.26 million people - which is 20% of the eligible Austrian voting population. That is a HUGE debate audience for just a state election.

On the content of the debate: Both Strache and Häupl held their own and mostly went along their standard talking points, with Strache playing the asylum card and the bureaucracy card and that fees went up in the city, while Häupl countered with attacking Strache but in a laid-back manner and arguing for a "compassionate" Vienna which can handle the asylum flood.

Vassilakou constantly attacked Strache ("You are always first when it comes to incitement of hatred, but always last when it comes to helping people.") and mostly talked about traffic related issues (which she knows well, since she's responsible for traffic in the city government).

The ÖVP-guy was mostly dull, but had the best lines when the discussion went to the economy and jobs ("We need to link the Transsiberian Railway with Vienna, because it would create 3.000 jobs in the city !").

The NEOS-woman was very aggressive, constantly shouting and generally shrill ("Please vote for us, we are new !"), while talking about a guy who wanted to start a business in Vienna to sell cheese noodles, but cannot do so because the snail-like Häupl-based bureaucratic crony-system does not allow him to set up business immediately. Häupl responded that Meinl-Reisinger should send him the guy to talk about his business, which just re-inforced what NEOS-woman had just said: That in Vienna, you need good contacts to the mayor and the SPÖ to start a business, otherwise you are fu**ed. You need to act like a solicitant to the mayor to get things done ... That was Häupl's weakest performance I thought.

Also, a OGM debate poll was done after the debate among Vienna voters and Häupl finished slightly ahead of Strache overall, with Vassilakou getting a decent share too (but everything was well within the MoE):

Who did best in the debate overall ?



Who did best on the topic of asylum and immigration ?



Who did best on the topic of economy and jobs ?



Who did best on the topic of city traffic ?

[Tender Branson]

204.000 people have applied for postal ballots, with the deadline being today.

That's about 25% of the expected vote.

The number of requested ballots is up by about 30% compared with the 2010 state election, when 160.000 requested one.

http://orf.at/wahl/story/2735466.html

[Tender Branson]

As for the weather on Sunday, it's once again perfect for voting (just like 2 weeks ago in Upper Austria):

Only 10°C, cloudy with a chance of light rain, cold and misty.

This helped increase turnout in Upper Austria from 80% to 82%.

In Vienna, political experts think turnout could increase from 67.6% in 2010 to around 70-72%.

[Tender Branson]

The ORF has a clickable map of how Vienna precincts voted in 2010:

(note: Vienna has about 1.500 precincts)

Winning party by precinct:



2nd-strongest party by precinct:



http://orf.at/wahl/wien15

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm guessing it's yuppie bankers in the middle?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Karl Marx-Hof
SPO 50.74%
FPO 33%
OVP 7.88%
Grune 7.39%

By the looks of this result, the public housing developments that embody the achievements of Vienna's socialist tradition could vote for the FPO.

[Tender Branson]

I'm guessing it's yuppie bankers in the middle?

The "yuppie bankers" are definitely a NEOS electorate (but they are also similarily concentrated in the "Green" inner-city districts).

That "Green core" is also home to many "left-leftist" university students and grown-up "left-leftist" hipsters, while the North and South of Vienna is home to working-class people, the donkeys of the nation, who are a major SPÖ-FPÖ battleground electorate. The North-West is home to many retired wealthy people who worked in upper white-collar professions, which explains the high share of ÖVP/NEOS voters there (like in the "City").

[Tender Branson]

Karl Marx-Hof
SPO 50.74%
FPO 33%
OVP 7.88%
Grune 7.39%

By the looks of this result, the public housing developments that embody the achievements of Vienna's socialist tradition could vote for the FPO.

That is not really surprising: More and more working-class Austrian citizens living in these major public housing developments are abandoning the SPÖ because they believe that the SPÖ has become a party which is constantly neglecting them, while putting in place policies to stuff hundreds of thousands of migrants and illegals into these public housing developments. Illegals and migrants who have never paid anything into the system, while Austrian citizens (who have worked their asses off for years) have to wait months and years for an apartment in one of these public housing developments ...

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is out with a final Vienna poll (conducted Oct. 6-8):

38% SPÖ (-6)
36% FPÖ (+10)
11% Greens (-2)
  9% ÖVP (-5)
  4% NEOS (+3)
  2% Others

Who won the TV debate ?

32% Strache (FPÖ)
29% Häupl (SPÖ-Incumbent)
  9% Vassilakou (Greens)
  4% Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
  1% Juraczka (ÖVP)

Have you already decided who to vote for ?

83% Yes
17% No

...

I don't think NEOS will drop below the 5% threshold, but their trend is alarming. It could mean that potential NEOS and Green voters are abandoning them to vote SPÖ strategically - to prevent the FPÖ from becoming the largest party.

[Tender Branson]

With 1 day to go, the Vienna-SPÖ is going after the FPÖ with the butcher knife (this ad has appeared today in all newspapers on full pages):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

I have to admit that the final SPÖ posters and ads are not really that bad:



"If you vote FPÖ, you will get (or end up with) Carinthia."



"In Vienna there are no minorities. Only humans (or people)."



"I cannot enter a coalition with a party that wants to send children back into a warzone. That has nothing to do with exclusion, but with character."



"Vienna is an awesome and great city and you cannot hand it over to the destroyers."



"Vienna is a shining example for humanity and solidarity. I'm proud to be mayor of this city."

[DavidB.]

Turnout was 37,8% at 14:00, compared to 36,6% in 2010.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout was 37,8% at 14:00, compared to 36,6% in 2010.

Which is of course without postal ballots ...

The postal ballot surge means that turnout will increase at least 4% with postals alone !

Currently, total turnout is on track to increase by 5% (from 68% to 73%) !

[DavidB.]

When will the polling stations close again? When do we have an exit poll?