Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[DavidB.]

First Gallup poll after the state elections shows the FPÖ up slightly and SPÖVP down:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Nach-Wahltriumpf-zieht-FPOe-weit-davon/191025423

...

The Vienna state election on Oct. 11 is now shaping up as the "mother of all election battles", because if the SPÖ is losing big there too and the FPÖ is gaining as well, the SPÖ might end up at 35% and the FPÖ above 30%.

With these numbers, would an SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens coalition (or a SPÖ-ÖVP-NEOS coalition) be more likely than an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition?

[DavidB.]

A new Heute/Unique Research poll for federal elections shows the FPÖ moving further ahead and is about to break 30%. That is no surprise if you read my comments above, given how helpless the SPÖVP government currently acts with regards to the asylum crisis. The poll has a sample of 800 and was conducted June 18-25:

The government should introduce border controls already and take this seriously, Austria can't be expected to deal with such a flood of refugees. If they don't do anything, they're a joke and basically allowing the FPÖ to win the next elections, which is something absolutely nobody will benefit from. Until now, Austria has truly been the best kid in the EU class, so I think it has enough political capital to do this.

[DavidB.]

Maybe I'm totally wrong, but this really strikes me when reading about Austrian politics... All Austrian politicians seem to be boring white men over 50 (Strache and the 20-something Foreign Minister being the obvious exceptions). Is that also the perception of many Austrians, and does it influence the way people look at the political arena in general?

[DavidB.]

Maybe I'm totally wrong, but this really strikes me when reading about Austrian politics... All Austrian politicians seem to be boring white men over 50 (Strache and the 20-something Foreign Minister being the obvious exceptions). Is that also the perception of many Austrians, and does it influence the way people look at the political arena in general?

Yes, but isn't that the case in most countries ?

The share of women in the Parliament is ca. 35% - which is not all too bad, but of course could be higher.

I don't think that the Austrian voters care if the politicians are old or young. Maybe that's a factor for first-time voters, who prefer to see more young politicians around. That's why the Greens, NEOS and FPÖ do so well with young voters, because these parties actually have a decent amount of young MPs. SPÖVP+TS on the other hand not.

Thanks for your explanation. I don't know why, but I had the impression that this was even more the case in Austria than in the rest of North-Western Europe.

I also had the impression that Greens, NEOS, and FPÖ were somewhat of an exception to this "rule". To be sure, I don't have anything against old white male politicians, but if there were such a reality, it might affect Austrians' view on politics, which could be interesting in and of itself.

[DavidB.]

Both Austrian and Hungarian officials will be involved in border checks, and controls are already taking place on trains leaving Budapest for Austria, Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner told Ö1 radio.

She added that she is talking to her Hungarian counterpart about how to facilitate a complete control of all incoming trains from Hungary, and how to monitor Hungarian railway stations.

Are these people coming by train?

With regard to the roads, I guess Klingenbach and Nickelsdorf are the most important border crossings at which they will implement strict border controls?

[DavidB.]

Another interesting fact:

If another MP from the Team Stronach switches over to the ÖVP, the ÖVP not only has the same number of MPs as the SPÖ, but ÖVP and FPÖ would also be within reach of their own parliamentary majority:

52 seats - ÖVP
38 seats - FPÖ
90 seats, out of 183

Together with the 2 Ex-FPÖ MPs that are now Indys, they would already have a 92-91 majority.

If another 3 Team Stronach MPs would switch to the ÖVP, they would have their own majority ...

Why was ÖVP+FPÖ+TS no option after the elections? Too problematic/right-wing for the centrist ÖVP + bad experience with FPÖ in government, I guess?

[DavidB.]

Another interesting fact:

If another MP from the Team Stronach switches over to the ÖVP, the ÖVP not only has the same number of MPs as the SPÖ, but ÖVP and FPÖ would also be within reach of their own parliamentary majority:

52 seats - ÖVP
38 seats - FPÖ
90 seats, out of 183

Together with the 2 Ex-FPÖ MPs that are now Indys, they would already have a 92-91 majority.

If another 3 Team Stronach MPs would switch to the ÖVP, they would have their own majority ...

Why was ÖVP+FPÖ+TS no option after the elections? Too problematic/right-wing for the centrist ÖVP + bad experience with FPÖ in government, I guess?

No, it had actually not much to do with the ÖVP: Frank Stronach ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ after the 2013 election, saying they are "too far to the right" (Frank Stronach himself is in fact very liberal on immigration, contrary to his "Team". I guess most TS MPs would not have had a problem with an ÖVP-FPÖ-TS coalition, but the "Frank" is still the decider).

Also, of course the ÖVP was not amused either with a FPÖ coalition ...

Interesting. Team Stronach is a strange party. The only Western European parties I would compare them to (but only to a certain extent) are the AfD in its earliest of days (the "new" AfD would probably be excluded by TS as well...) and Liberal Alliance in Denmark. But for Team Stronach, the story seems to be over after 2017. Most TS supporters will likely flock to FPÖ, ÖVP, or NEOS (in that order) in the next elections, I suppose?

[DavidB.]

Because 4 former Team Stronach MPs have now switched to the ÖVP parliamentary club, a new poll shows a majority of Austrians in favour of banning party switching of MPs.

There has been a debate recently about banning the practice, because MPs are not directly elected - only via party list. The solution would be to force rogue MPs to step down, so that the party can substitute them with someone else, which also means they cannot become Indy MPs anymore.

The poll shows 52% in favour of a party switch ban and 32% opposed.

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-ueber-verbot-parteiwechsels-5795880

The same stupid debate as in the Netherlands. As if increasing party discipline is good for democracy.

[DavidB.]

Because 4 former Team Stronach MPs have now switched to the ÖVP parliamentary club, a new poll shows a majority of Austrians in favour of banning party switching of MPs.

There has been a debate recently about banning the practice, because MPs are not directly elected - only via party list. The solution would be to force rogue MPs to step down, so that the party can substitute them with someone else, which also means they cannot become Indy MPs anymore.

The poll shows 52% in favour of a party switch ban and 32% opposed.

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-ueber-verbot-parteiwechsels-5795880

The same stupid debate as in the Netherlands. As if increasing party discipline is good for democracy.

I think it depends on the system. If you voted for Geert Wilders when he was on the VVD list, then it's fair to say he has an individual mandate and can jump ship. However if you vote for some closed list, what part does the individual MP have in that?

You're of course right, but I think it's annoying that in this discussion, the party discipline argument is often overlooked entirely.

[DavidB.]

"The people. The country. My calling."

Something about this tricolon just doesn't feel right. Maybe it's because it's the FPÖ, maybe it's because it's just a bit over the top, maybe it's because "Die Menschen/Das Land" is a bit too similar to "Ein Volk/Ein Reich", or maybe I'm just a bit allergic to overt populism - I don't know why exactly, but it doesn't feel right. Don't people in Austria think this is a bit.. awkward?

Edit: While thinking this over again, it becomes obvious for me that this simply can't just be coincidence. Ugh. Reminds me of why I hate the FPÖ.

[DavidB.]

"The people. The country. My calling."

Something about this tricolon just doesn't feel right. Maybe it's because it's the FPÖ, maybe it's because it's just a bit over the top, maybe it's because "Die Menschen/Das Land" is a bit too similar to "Ein Volk/Ein Reich", or maybe I'm just a bit allergic to overt populism - I don't know why exactly, but it doesn't feel right. Don't people in Austria think this is a bit.. awkward?

Edit: While thinking this over again, it becomes obvious for me that this simply can't just be coincidence. Ugh. Reminds me of why I hate the FPÖ.

Of course they are awkward references to the Nazi era and most (non-FPÖ-voting) Austrians are well aware of the constant underlying messages that the FPÖ puts into their campaign (posters) and basically have gotten used to it. In fact, the FPÖ is well aware of what they can do and what they cannot do under the Verbotsgesetz (anti-Nazi law). They always find a way to phrase their underlying Nazi-rethoric in a way that does not bring them before court ...

Thanks for explaining this. Wow. The absolute shamelessness of the FPÖ and its campaign is especially striking if you compare it to the extent to which this campaign would be frowned upon in Germany. (Quasi)-Nazism seems to have a much wider appeal in Austria than in Germany, partly - I think - because some Austrians still think they were in reality the "real victims", while for Germans, there was no way to deny anything.

I must add that I'm probably somewhat more sensitive to (and annoyed by) these FPÖ references because a part of my family is from Austria, they fled after the Anschluß. Most, however, didn't manage to, and didn't survive. I still have family in Vienna, a city I love.

[DavidB.]

"It would be about time now to draw a final line under the Holocaust."
52% Yes

.................. :/ That's depressing.

(Might not even be that much different from the percentage of Dutch people who would say this, but still, wow....)

[DavidB.]

Interesting. Until now, Austria has of course resisted the Western European trend of parties succesfully positioning themselves primarily as an alternative to the economic left of the social democrats (in a "working class" sense), which must be one of the reasons that the SPÖ hasn't yet become as electorally vulnerable as most social democratic parties in Western Europe. This lack of a real left-wing alternative to the SPÖ is probably also, to some extent, one of the reasons for the Austrian Greens' remarkable electoral strength. It seems logical that a party like Die Linke or the Dutch SP could gain ground in the country, and given that Vienna is pretty much a blue-collar city, it could do well there, taking votes from both FPÖ and SPÖ.

But I get the impression that "Wien Anders" will probably hurt the Greens more than "working class" parties FPÖ/SPÖ, since its program seems more bobo/hipster than working-class to me. Am I right?

[DavidB.]

The SPO really needs to roll Faymann

The SPÖ needs to roll more than only Faymann, I think...

[DavidB.]

Mostly they could just do with a stint in opposition (nationally), even a fairly short one.

I don't know. Other parties becoming even more unpopular doesn't make the SPÖ's unpopularity go away, especially because I don't know if they have any leadership material that's better.

The only serious option for the SPÖ to go in opposition is a FPÖ-ÖVP coalition, and given the ÖVP's unpopularity and the FPÖ's electoral strength such a government would likely be a total trainwreck, even if it could be formed in the first place. The Austrian political system has a problem.

[DavidB.]

What exactly is a "G'spür"?

[DavidB.]

What exactly is a "G'spür"?

"G'spür" = Viennese-German for "Gespür"

In this context ("Für Wien brauchst a G'spür"), it means something like "For Vienna you need a good nose" or you can translate it with "grasp", "intuition", "flair", "a 6th sense", "a good sense", "understanding" or "comprehension".

It means the SPÖ thinks they "know their people" and what they want ...

Political campaigning 101: if you're unpopular, don't campaign on people's feelings about your party...

[DavidB.]

I don't care if Strache endorses my post or not. The situation has become insane and the government cannot close their eyes forever. Even Amnesty International called the actions of our government a disaster today in their report:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...the solution to which would be to create more facilities for asylum seekers to alleviate these harsh conditions, which, as it happens, is exactly what the government is doing!

Yeah, this might be the best thing to do short-term in order to create better, more humane conditions for the immigrants that already managed to get in. Still, I also think Tender is right in his frustration about the government's ineptitude to stop the influx of immigrants, to which closing the borders - with or without involving the army - would be the obvious solution. Viktor Orbán must be happy with SPÖVP.

[DavidB.]

The Vienna election department has released preliminary numbers of eligible voters for the Oct. 11 state and district elections:

* 1.143.045 people are eligible to vote in the state election (Austrian citizens aged 16+ only)
* 1.327.282 people are eligible to vote in the district elections (Austrian + EU citizens aged 16+)

And now the interesting part:

The number of people eligible to vote in the state election has decreased by 1.500 people compared with the 2010 state election. A reason for this is mostly because Austrian citizens flee the city of Vienna and move to the suburbs. Also, Austrian citizens have not only a negative migration balance in Vienna, but also a birth deficit - which is not made up by enough naturalisations of foreign citizens.

The overall population of Vienna has increased from 1.70 million in Oct. 2010 to 1.83 million this October.

That's a reason why the number of eligible voters for the district elections has increased significantly as well over the last 5 years (many people from other EU countries moved to Vienna).

https://www.wien.gv.at/politik-verwaltung/wahlberechtigte.html

Interesting. What suburbs are considered "white flight suburbs"?

[DavidB.]

Is "white flight" the appropriate term for Viennese moving out to the suburbs?  Aren't most of the new comers from other parts of Europe?  If so, would this be more of a class flight (too many poorer Serbians and Croats moving into the neighborhood, time to move), than a white flight situation?

Don't forget the Turkish. I know that my uncle and aunt moved from Vienna to North Burgenland, which wasn't entirely unrelated to the fact that Turkish guys would call my aunt a "slut" when she walked on the street wearing a normal skirt. Still, you could of course argue that Turks are as "white" as Europeans, but I'd still count the phenomenon as "white flight". You could probably also call it "native flight".

[DavidB.]

66% of Austrians say the country is on the wrong track
80% think the government is incapable of solving the country's problems

Yet, 45% would vote for a current government party.

It's telling much about the opposition.

Yet the fact that a despicable party like the FPÖ is at an all-time high in the polls is telling much about the government...

And if you don't like this government, it doesn't necessarily mean that one cannot like one of the government parties, or vote for them, even though the reasons why people would like the SPÖ or the ÖVP are beyond me.

[DavidB.]

This Monday, FPÖ-leader Strache was the one interviewed and the session had the biggest TV audience of any summer interview since the start of this stuff in the early 1990s: About 1 million people watched the interview, which is one sixth of the Austrian electorate (in US terms, that would amount to ca. 40 million viewers).

What did he actually have to say? Do you think he convinced many people? Was it a "relaxing in the garden and talking lightly about some stuff" summer interview or was it a real, tough interview? I don't think ORF likes him so much...

[DavidB.]

The Oct. 11 Vienna state election is the last remaining hope for the liberal NEOS to stop their downward trend.

With this in mind, NEOS-Vienna is launching a massive poster campaign against both the SPÖ and the FPÖ.

In their anti-SPÖ posters, NEOS mocks the ridiculous SPÖ-posters (which I have posted recently):



"Since 21 years, mayor Häupl is in charge of Vienna. But of what use is it to me if I have no job ?"

"Real change for Vienna."



"Häupl is plastering Vienna with posters. But of what use is it to me if he ignores my education ?"

"Real change for Vienna."



"Häupl is a master of cronyism*. But that's not helping my business."

"Real change for Vienna."

(* that slogan only makes real sense in German with the word Freunderlwirtschaft)

...

In their anti-FPÖ posters, they put several FPÖ politicians on posters and some of their controversial remarks:



Strache - The everlasting hate preacher: "We are the new Jews."



Steger - The valiant crusader: "What does the legalisation of homosexual 'marriages' have in common with the civil war in Syria ? The common factor is that in both cases we are seeing signs of the self-destructive disposition that is devouring Europe."

Wow. It amazes be, but this actually seems like a party I could vote for (only on the local level though, nationally it's too D66 for me)... Quite special, for this is Austria after all.

However, they should have picked a better name. "Neos" in Austria just doesn't sound right. Frankly, it sounds like the name some sort of Austrian NPD would give themselves. When I told people of the existence of this party, they all laughed at the name, and it was more of an "awkwaaaard!" kind of laughter than a positive kind. Is it only the Dutch who have this connotation with everything "neo" in German-speaking countries, or do Austrians actually feel the same way?

[DavidB.]

Wow. It amazes me, but this actually seems like a party I could vote for (only on the local level though, nationally it's too D66 for me)... Quite special, for this is Austria after all.

However, they should have picked a better name. "Neos" in Austria just doesn't sound right. Frankly, it sounds like the name some sort of Austrian NPD would give themselves. When I told people of the existence of this party, they all laughed at the name, and it was more of an "awkwaaaard!" kind of laughter than a positive kind. Is it only the Dutch who have this connotation with everything "neo" in German-speaking countries, or do Austrians actually feel the same way?

NEOS doesn't really sound strange from an Austrian perspective, certainly not more so than for example "D66" ...

It's only Greek (or Latin ?) for "new".

Also, an "Austrian NPD" would not name itself NEOS but something much longer like the banned "Volkstreue außerparlamentarische Opposition" or the "Arbeitsgemeinschaft für demokratische Politik".

Fair enough, then it's something Dutch to think of nazis when someone talks about anything "neo" (of which I know the meaning after five years of Ancient Greek in high school ). Austrians would be right with regard to D66 if they would consider that party strange

[DavidB.]

I honestly don't get why NEOS or "neo" would have anything to do with Nazis? Would you please explain, I'm genuinely curious

Because "neo-nazi" is probably the word with "neo" that's most well-known among Dutch.