Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

Elections coming up in 2014:

* 9 March: Salzburg mayoral and town/city council elections
* 25 May: EU Parliament election
* 21 September: Vorarlberg state election

Welcome to the new thread !



Here's the old:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165607.0

[Tender Branson]

Arrived here through a Google search and now I'm completely addicted to this forum.  Just spent quite a few hours reading through the entire Austrian election thread...wow, what a phenomenal job you guys have done.  This election was absolutely fascinating to me, particularly since I will be starting at the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna next August.

A question about the NEOS party - are they more of a right-liberal (super free market, anti-statist/libertarian...I'm thinking Denmark's Liberal Alliance or the German FDP) or social/left-liberal (slightly pro-market, soft environmental, more in keeping with -to use the Danish case again- Radikale Venstre or similar like the UK Lib Dems)?

Again, thanks for the excellent work on here!

Their party platform so far is a mix of both: pro-business policies that favor start-ups, small-business owners, lowering taxes for them etc.

But they have also a focus on social/left-liberal issues, such as school/education reforms, sustainable pro-environment economic policy, transperancy, strongly-pro-EU (favoring a EU citizenship etc.)

Basically a FDP with a Green paint ...

Their parliamentary work in the coming years will show where they are positioned really, more to the right or to the left ...

You can read their program here:

http://neos.eu/_download/downloads/plaene-fuer-ein-neues-oesterreich-11.pdf

http://neos.eu/plaene

[Tender Branson]

bmw, welcome to the Forum btw !

Where do you come from ?

Hope you enjoy your stay in Vienna and your studies at the Diplomatic Academy.

[Tender Branson]

A few updates from today:

* President Heinz Fischer today officially told Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) to form a new government. Which means the coalition talk business will now become serious. Side fact: Today is also President Fischer's 75th birthday.



The whole government-formation order from President Fischer reads like this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1462614/Fischer-erteilt-Faymann-Auftrag-zur-Regierungsbildung

* FPÖ's Strache said the only 3 possibilies he sees right now are: A) a new SPÖVP government B) a SPÖ-FPÖ government, but only if the SPÖ moves away from its FPÖ-exclusion policy C) new elections being called.



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1462654/Strache-will-Achse-der-Opposition-aufstellen

* The Team Stronach is falling further apart and one crisis meeting is following the other: After launching a Coup d'état from above by sacking 3 state TS leaders in the last week, Frank Stronach is now already in Canada again (he can't stay in Austria for more than 70 days a year, because then he'd have to pay ALL his taxes here).

So, his "girl-for-everything" and designated TS parliamentary leader - Kathrin Nachbaur - is leading the meetings. The Carinthia TS is about to split from the federal party in a CDU/CSU-like model if Nachbaur cannot convince the pissed-off Carinthians to stay on board.



Also, the Salzburg and Lower Austrian state TS people (the Carinthians too) are severely pissed-off with the way Frank Stronach is doing business: He wants money back from them, 10 Mio. € in the next 10 years to be exact.

Also, the Vorarlberg TS is about to implode. Frank Stronach has basically fired the whole leadership in the state and they said they won't run in the 2014 Vorarlberg state election ...

http://derstandard.at/1379293538404/Team-Stronach-Vorarlberg-vor-Aufloesung

[Tender Branson]

Even the main German TV channel ARD is now reporting about NEOS:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/neos100.html

[Tender Branson]

So the ÖVP does seem interested in seeing whether they have any chance of not playing "zweite Geige" yet again.

Just a bargaining chip or is black-blue + some TS support a credible alternative?

With the situation that the TS is currently in it would be suicidal for the ÖVP to enter a coalition with the FPÖ and TS. As if the FPÖ wouldn't be enough ...

In the next years, there are still decisions coming up on the EU level that could involve constitutional changes (2/3 majority), for example if another Greek bailout is needed. The FPÖ would not accept it. The ÖVP would look stupid, because SPÖ and Greens would simply let the ÖVP "auflaufen" and refuse to support them. The coalition would be dead, Austria would look stupid, new elections would be called, the ÖVP would lose.

So, better a new SPÖVP hate-love coalition ...

[Tender Branson]

What are the odds of SPÖVPGreens right now ? Who is in favor and who's against ?

Why would the Greens join that?

People do dumb things, that's why. All the time, pretty much. No but seriously, I know it's not necessarily the most probable one federally, but it exists at a few state levels, so why not ?

As Lewis said, the Greens are not needed for a regular coalition.

But they could work out a deal or two for Europe-related laws, where the coalition needs the Greens and/or NEOS for a 2/3 majority.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a Reuters article about government formation and TS troubles:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/09/us-austria-government-idUSBRE9980EN20131009

And here's a New Statesman article (a London-based paper) about the FPÖ being Nazis or not:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/10/are-austrian-fpo-party-really-nazis

[Tender Branson]

SHOCK !

The mayor of my home city Zell am See, Hermann Kaufmann, has been found dead today in his house. The cause is likely either a heart attack or a stroke.

Hermann Kaufmann (ÖVP), was elected mayor in 2009, in what came as a big blow to the city-SPÖ, which held the mayoral post all the time before him. Kaufmann comes from a staunch SPÖ family, but ran for the ÖVP. Kaufmann was also a really folksy guy, always showing up at festivities in the city.

He was only 56 years old and leaves behind 2 sons.



http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/zeller-buergermeister-kaufmann-ueberraschend-verstorben-77899

RIP.

[Tender Branson]

5 years ago today, Jörg Haider died in a car-crash:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.brecorder.com/articles-a-letters/187:articles/1239788:haiders-fatal-crash-still-echoes-in-austrian-politics/?date=2013-10-10

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & ÖVP have decided to start coalition talks next week.

The 2 party leadership boards will meet on Monday to formalize it.

If the talks are quick, a new government is likely by early December - if not, then by Christmas or New Year.

[Tender Branson]

Amazing map !

Thanks a 1000 times, homely ...

[Tender Branson]

So, SPÖ and ÖVP will start their coalition talks today.

Possible "cow/horse-trades" ?

The ÖVP gives up their opposition to a comprehensive all-day school, which the SPÖ supports.

In turn, the SPÖ gives up their millionaire-tax (or any other new taxes in general), which the ÖVP opposes.

...

Another possibility:

The SPÖ gives up their opposition to university tuition fees, which the ÖVP wants.

In turn, the SPÖ gets their federal minimum wage for all economic sectors of 1500€ (which the ÖVP now opposes).

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & ÖVP have decided to start coalition talks next week.

The 2 party leadership boards will meet on Monday to formalize it.

If the talks are quick, a new government is likely by early December - if not, then by Christmas or New Year.

The SPÖ leadership meeting is over and it voted overwhelmingly in favour of opening coalition talks with the ÖVP.

Only the Vorarlberg SPÖ-leader voted against: He wanted a broad coalition with ÖVP, Greens & NEOS.

The ÖVP meeting has just started.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/spezial/nationalratswahl-2013/sn/artikel/eine-gegenstimme-spoe-beschloss-koalitionsverhandlungen-mit-oevp-78226

[Tender Branson]

Very early outlook for the upcoming Vorarlberg state election:

2009 results: 51% ÖVP, 25% FPÖ, 11% Greens, 10% SPÖ, 2% GSI, 1% BZÖ

The big loser will be the ÖVP, because it's the first election of the "new" Governor Markus Wallner:



Wallner is not unpopular, he might actually be popular (but due to the lack of polls, I don't know).

But considering that the last election was fought and won by the former extremely popular long-term governor, it's only natural that the ÖVP will lose.

There's also another reason why the ÖVP will lose: NEOS.

The NEOS got 13% in the parliamentary election a few weeks ago.

NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz (who comes from Vorarlberg) will likely not be the front-runner in the state election. Therefore a similar result will also be unlikely (maybe 5-10%). But he'll appear on election posters I guess.

The FPÖ is likely to remain on a very high level, because they have a pretty good organisation in the state and a popular state leader. Vorarlberg is also the state with the 2nd highest share of foreigners in Austria (after Vienna), which also plays into the hands of the FPÖ there (FPÖ does usually well in places with a high amount of foreigners).

The Greens will lose to NEOS, like they did in the parliamentary election.

The SPÖ will play no role, like it was the case in any state election since 1945.

The Team Stronach was recently dissolved in Vorarlberg (see my post on the 1st page), because of infights and problems with Frank Stronach's dictatorial/bossy leadership style.

Maybe they will find new members ahead of the election, but it's not looking good for them. As of right now, TS said it will not run in the state election.

The BZÖ does basically not exist in Vorarlberg. They have an office there, but other than that no people, or people willing to run. And no money of course.

Maybe the Pirates will run too and get 1%.

Maybe some leftist block like the GSI in 2009 ...

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & ÖVP have decided to start coalition talks next week.

The 2 party leadership boards will meet on Monday to formalize it.

If the talks are quick, a new government is likely by early December - if not, then by Christmas or New Year.

The SPÖ leadership meeting is over and it voted overwhelmingly in favour of opening coalition talks with the ÖVP.

Only the Vorarlberg SPÖ-leader voted against: He wanted a broad coalition with ÖVP, Greens & NEOS.

The ÖVP meeting has just started.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/spezial/nationalratswahl-2013/sn/artikel/eine-gegenstimme-spoe-beschloss-koalitionsverhandlungen-mit-oevp-78226

The ÖVP meeting has ended and the ÖVP voted unanimously in favour of coalition talks with the SPÖ.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1464457/OeVP-einstimmig-fuer-Koalitionsverhandlungen-mit-SPOe

[Tender Branson]

The 8 big chapters that SPÖVP will mainly negotiate about in their coalition talks:

* Education/Universities
* Taxes/(Budget) Consolidation
* Future (which means Family policy, science/research)
* Pensions
* Europe
* Safety and Justice
* Administrative Reform

[Tender Branson]

Now the Team Stronach knows how it feels when someone defects from their party (-> BZÖ to Stronach):

http://derstandard.at/1381368561086/Monika-Lindner-wird-freie-Abgeordnete

Monika Lindner, former (Austrian public broadcaster) ORF director who ran for the Team Stronach, will leave the Team Stronach and become an independent member of parliament.

Lindner, previously ÖVP-aligned, joined the TS in a "big coup" before the election to attract attention to the party.

But then Robert Lugar, the former TS club speaker in parliament, said that the party will "use her as a spearhead against the ORF."

This was enough for Lindner and after just 3 days in the party she said she would quit.

Until today it was not known though if she would still take her seat in parliament, or if she refuses and someone else from the TS list replaces her.

Many political commentators just saw Lindner as a trojan horse within the TS, that could now join the ÖVP parliament group (something she denies btw).

[Tender Branson]

The 8 big chapters that SPÖVP will mainly negotiate about in their coalition talks:

* Education/Universities
* Taxes/(Budget) Consolidation
* Future (which means Family policy, science/research)
* Pensions
* Europe
* Safety and Justice
* Administrative Reform

So nothing on the environment huh ? Meh...

The "big" chapters above are from the Spindelegger-press release.

The final coalition agreement for 2013-18 will of course have planned policies in the environmental areas as well.

[Tender Branson]

So, SPÖ and ÖVP will start their coalition talks today.

Possible "cow/horse-trades" ?

The ÖVP gives up their opposition to a comprehensive all-day school, which the SPÖ supports.

In turn, the SPÖ gives up their millionaire-tax (or any other new taxes in general), which the ÖVP opposes.

...

Another possibility:

The SPÖ gives up their opposition to university tuition fees, which the ÖVP wants.

In turn, the SPÖ gets their federal minimum wage for all economic sectors of 1500€ (which the ÖVP now opposes).

What exactly is the debate around schools about? Does the SPO want to eliminate the AHS/gymnasium in favor of a completely comprehensive secondary school system like the US or UK, or merely want to push back the age at which children are tracked?

The SPÖ wants ALL secondary schools in Austria (HS, NMS, AHS-Unterstufe) to offer all-day studying for students if at least 15 students (or their parents) in that school want afternoon lessons. The schools would then have to implement a comprehensive all-day studying plan for teachers/students.

The ÖVP on the other hand wants more choice for parents, students, headmasters - so that they can decide on their own if they want to remain in school only until the regular lessons are over (for example if their parents are at home and the students rather want to go soccer playing etc. in the afternoon), or study in school until evening when their (working) parents are at home again. Basically, the ÖVP doesn't like the words "mandatory all-day schools in all of Austria" that the SPÖ wants.

[Tender Branson]

The first thing that the (current caretaker-government) SPÖVP will do now is to pass a 2014 budget swiftly.

http://www.format.at/articles/1342/930/367894/grosse-koalition-kein-budgetprovisorium

Just last week, Finance Minister Maria Fekter (ÖVP) said that because of the election and the coalition talks no budget could be passed in time for 2014 and warned of "US-style conditions" and that "provisional monthly budgets" would be needed if SPÖVP doesn't pass a real budget.

Both Faymann and Spindelegger brushed that thought away immediately and said that a new 2014 budget will be passed in the next weeks.

Provisional budgets are nothing unusual in Austria though after elections, because usually the new government passes them. Which means that if the government formation process would take until Jan/Feb/March of the next year, an automatic provisional budget kicks in by law (every month of the new year is funded by 1/12 of the previous year's budget).

Interesting fact: Finance Minister Fekter will not be in the ÖVP-negotiator-team for the coalition talks with the SPÖ that deals with Finances. Instead the Governor of Upper Austria will be the ÖVP's negotiator for Finances. A possible sign that Austrian ÖVP-leader Michael Spindelegger himself wants to be the next Finance Minister ?

[Tender Branson]

Could somebody explain what the Austrian education system is like, particularly the different types of middle and high schools?

No, but you can read it here:

http://www.bmukk.gv.at/enfr/school/schools.xml

http://www.bmukk.gv.at/enfr/school/bw_en/index.xml

[Tender Branson]

More details of the SPÖVP 2.0 coalition talks have been released today incl. the 8 "big topics", the subtopics and who will be the negotiators on each side:

* FINANZEN - Budget, Steuern, Entlastung, Schuldenabbau

Finanzstaatssekretär Andreas Schieder (SPÖ) - Oberösterreichs Landeshauptmann Josef Pühringer (ÖVP)

* WACHSTUM - Wirtschaft, Arbeit, Landwirtschaft, ländlicher Raum

Sozialminister Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ) - Wirtschaftsbundobmann Christoph Leitl (ÖVP)

* ZUKUNFT - Infrastruktur, Forschung, Umwelt, Energie, Jugend, Familie, Integration

Infrastrukturministerin Doris Bures (SPÖ) - Integrationsstaatssekretär Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP)

* BILDUNG - Bildung, Wissenschaft, Kunst und Kultur, Frauen

Beamtenministerin Gabriele Heinisch-Hosek (SPÖ) - Salzburgs Landeshauptmann Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP)

* LÄNGER GESUND LEBEN UND ARBEITEN - leistbares Leben, leistbares Wohnen, Soziales, Pensionen, Gesundheit, Pflege, Menschen mit besonderen Bedürfnissen, Sport

Sozialminister Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ) - Wirtschaftsminister Reinhold Mitterlehner (ÖVP)

* ÖSTERREICH IN EUROPA UND DER WELT - Europa- und Außenpolitik

Klubobmann Josef Cap (SPÖ) - Außenstaatssekretär Reinhold Lopatka (ÖVP)

* SICHERHEIT UND RECHTSSTAAT - Landesverteidigung, Inneres und Justiz

Verteidigungsminister Gerald Klug (SPÖ) - Innenministerin Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP)

* STAATSREFORM UND DIREKTE DEMOKRATIE - Verfassung, Föderalismus, öffentlicher Dienst

Burgenlands Landeshauptmann Hans Niessl (SPÖ) - Seniorenbund-Obmann Andreas Khol (ÖVP)

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz (27), could become the youngest Austrian cabinet minister ever this year.



When he became State Secretary for Integration in 2011 at the age of 24, there was controversy because of his young age.

But he did a good job in the past 2.5 years and is now the 2nd most popular politician in Austria (after President Fischer) and the most popular cabinet member. He also got the most preference votes in the parliamentary election, more than Faymann and Spindelegger.

SPÖVP have said that they will cut the cabinet by 2 ministries and merge those 2 with other ministries (so they can say "we are a savings coalition").

Kurz could take over a newly created "Super-Ministry" for "Future Issues" (the coalition talks will show what this really means).

[Tender Branson]

The parliamentary election result is now OFFICIAL and FINAL (as expected, there have been no changes compared with the preliminary final result):

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/Verlautbarung_BWB_endgErg_inkl_3_Ermittlungsverfahren_NRW13.pdf

http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/End_Gesamt.aspx

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/Mandatsspiegel_NRW_2013_4_Tag_nach_Wahltag_Wahlkarten_Vorl.pdf

Excel-file with data down to the town level:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/NRW13_endgueltiges_Gesamtergebnis.xlsx

Preference votes on the federal level:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/NRW13_Bund_VZ_Broschuere.pdf

Preference votes on the state level:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/NRW13_Land_VZ_Broschuere_Gesamt.pdf