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Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0  (Read 328664 times)
Kevinstat
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« on: June 07, 2015, 12:57:35 AM »

Current state governments in Austria:



Styria = TBD (currently SPÖVP)

Carinthia, Upper Austria and Lower Austria also have "Proporz", which means all parties above 10% also have a cabinet post.

So there's a coalition (not just some SPÖ cabinet members as mandated by "Proporz") in Lower Austria even though the ÖVP have an absolute majority?  Is that to increase the chance of remaining in power if they fall below 50% of seats?  I remember Voralberg had an ÖVP-FPÖ coalition at one time even though the ÖVP had a majority, and that coalition continued after the ÖVP lost its majority there.

Wow, the Greens sure have gotten into several Governments after their breakthrough in Vienna in 2010!
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2015, 09:21:06 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2015, 09:42:30 PM by Kevinstat »

Meanwhile, under much pressure/criticism/protest, Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) and the broader federal SPÖ-leadership has agreed to let state SPÖs enter coalitions with the FPÖ, but maintained a federal "ban" on working with them.

Many SPÖ-members are now quitting party membership because of this, incl. former MPs. They call it "unbearable" that the SPÖ is working with the FPÖ.

All of this of course is terrible news for SPÖ prospects in the Vienna state election in 4 months, where the FPÖ is on track to cross 30% (+4%) and the SPÖ likely to drop to 35% (-9%).

On the other hand, FPÖ-leader Strache is now showing the biggest self-confidence ever [...]

His goal is now to win a stunning Vienna upset and force mayor Häupl (SPÖ) to step down ...

Another day with big and fast-changing political developments:

[...]

* Salzburg: Overnight, Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache has expelled the whole Salzburg-FPÖ leadership from the party (state FPÖ-leader Doppler and state-FPÖ parliamentary club leader Schnell). Also, 5 of the 6 state MPs for the FPÖ remain loyal to Doppler/Schnell and will be expelled as well, like 1 federal MP for the FPÖ and one BR (Bundesrat). The reason for the massive turmoil in the Salzburg-FPÖ was months of backstabbing, bad climate and intrigue. Strache now pulled the ripcord as a last resort, but the trouble won't end here because the FPÖ is now basically split and the expelled ones could create a new right-wing party. This is bad news for Strache, after having 2 weeks now with very positive news (elections wins in Bgld. and entering the government there and massive gains in Styria).

Meanwhile the FPÖ-debacle here in Salzburg is getting deeper and deeper:

After Strache has ousted basically the whole FPÖ-leadership in Salzburg last night ("The night of the long knives" or "Knittelfeld 2.0"), Karl Schnell is now calling Strache a "dictator".

It should be noted that Karl Schnell was one of Jörg Haiders first followers and became FPÖ-party leader in Salzburg in the early 1990s, served for more than 20 years and has the backing of more than 80% of the state-FPÖ.

Yet Strache decided to throw him and all others out of the party yesterday. Schnell has said that he might create his own list for the 2018 state election, which would split the FPÖ into 2 pieces with ca. 10% each ... Tongue

I wonder if Burgenland Gov. Hanz Niessl now regrets forming a coalition with the FPÖ, or if federal SPÖ leaders regret not doing {something, more} (whichever applies) to stop it.

Also, would Franz Voves still be Governor of Styria and (not imminently stepping down, if he hasn't already) state SPÖ leader if Niessl had renewed his party's coalition with the ÖVP?

Also, why didn't the SPÖ and Greens form a coalition in Burgenland after the SPÖ lost its majority in 2010?  They had a 19-17 majority between them (SPÖ 18, Greens 1).  If this year's election had gone badly for the coalition, the SPÖ could have switched to a coalition with the ÖVP and had it be a change, rather than a continuation of a just-rebuked status quo with Niessl obviously didn't like.  The Greens had lost ground in 2010 so perhaps that was a factor, plus perhaps the fear that the ÖVP would retaliate by forming a coalition without the SPÖ if they ever regained the ability to.  Or had the SPÖ even governed along during the 2005-2010 term or had they been in coalition with the ÖVP like the Lower Austria ÖVP is with the SPÖ today?  That could help explain why they kept governing with the ÖVP after 2010.

What party/parties was/were the SPÖ's coalition partner(s) in Burgenland in the 2000-2005 term?  (SPÖ-Greens had a 19-17 majority then as in 2010-2015.)  It must have been the ÖVP from 1991 (maybe earlier) to 2000 as only the SPÖ, ÖVP, and FPÖ had seats in the Landtag in that period.

When did Burgenland get rid of Proporz?

Okay, I'm done with my questions for this evening.
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Kevinstat
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Posts: 1,823


« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2015, 04:30:30 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2015, 04:35:49 PM by Kevinstat »

Thank you for answering most of my questions, Cranberry.  The remaining one, about whether Gov. Niessl and/or the federal SPÖ regret forming a coalition with the FPÖ/changing the by-laws to make it "legal" for a state SPÖ to form such a coalition (beyond what is required in the states that still have Proporz) in light of the FPÖ's internal troubles that might have blunted their momentum (and in light of how intense the backlash has been within the SPÖ base)... that's a question for which the answers could probably only be guessed at.

Looking at the portions of Tender's posts from June 9, June 10 and June 11 that I quoted in my last post, it certainly seems like the SPÖ (both in Burgenland and federally) might be breathing a sigh of relief right now if they and the ÖVP had taken the risk (and it is a risk, I know) of continuing to relegate the FPÖ to the role of an opposition party throughout the country in which they had been thriving (and surging in the polls).  And as I someone said, the FPÖ may still benefit nationally from being an opposition party because Burgenland is such a small state.
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Kevinstat
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Posts: 1,823


« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2015, 09:13:30 PM »

Final statewide result:

36.4% ÖVP (-10.4), 21 seats (-7), 3 government seats (-2)
30.4% FPÖ (+15.1), 18 seats (+9), 3 government seats (+2)
18.4% SPÖ (-6.6), 11 seats (-3), 2 government seats (n/c)
10.3% Greens (+1.1), 6 seats (+1), 1 government seat (n/c)
  3.5% NEOS (+3.5)
  0.8% KPÖ (+0.2)
  0.4% CPÖ (-0.1)

Thought I'd add the seat count (from http://orf.at/wahl/ooe15/#projection ) and seat changes, as well as my guess at the number of government seats under Proporz (seems pretty clear from the numbers, whether D'Hondt or Sainte-Laguë is used and whether it's based off the vote results or the number of seats, i.e. whether or not your using "rounded" figures in the calculation).

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
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