Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

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It would be the 6th state government (out of 9) with the Green Party in it (only Lower Austria, Styria and Burgenland have no Greens in the government).

Do the Greens get any actual influence on environmental policies and infrastructure in these coalitions? 

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The gender gap in that exit poll is really quite amazing - one of the biggest I have seen anywhere. Is FPÖ that much of a mens party in the rest of Austria?

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Is  BZÖ dead by now? They seemed to have stopped polling them?

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^ Judging by the recent polls TB posted, it looks like the pollsters only want to poll for parties that have seats in Parliament. Everyone else goes under ''Others'', if recorded at all.

They got 3.53%  in the National Council election last year, so being among "Others", which are only polling 2% combined, is close to being politically "dead" (I suppose they must be at max 1.5%).

Also only 0.47% in the Euros (but that is a different game).

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@ Tender, you never answered my question. Is there any chance of another FPOVP coalition?

Not long ago, I have written a lengthy PM about this issue to a poster who PMed me about it.

Too bad I have already deleted the message.

In short: As of right now, there's no chance of another FPÖVP or ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, simply because of the previous coalition that was a fu**ing disaster and because the FPÖ is so toxic nationally (the Left would stage massive protests) and internationally (the EU countries would go nuts again). Also, there's the problem with the FPÖ's Nazi-statements here and then. In recent years, FPÖ-leader Strache has looked to make the FPÖ much more moderate and "mainstream", taking a tough line against anyone who makes such statements. But the risk still remains and the ÖVP does rather prefer a coalition with someone else.

There are also some areas where the FPÖ and ÖVP do not agree a lot: The FPÖ (like the SPÖ) wants a millionaire tax or higher taxes for high-income earners, the ÖVP is categorically opposed. The FPÖ wants basically no further immigration, the ÖVP wants as many (skilled) immigrants as the economy demands. The FPÖ opposes TTIP and TISA, the ÖVP favours it. And so on.

Of course, you can never rule an FPÖVP coalition out, but 2018 is a long way to go and under Mitterlehner (ÖVP-leader) it's really unlikely.

Any chance of SPÖ-FPÖ ever becoming a possibility? (say, within a generation or so)

How right wing is FPÖ on economics and labour relations in their present incarnation?

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@ Tender, you never answered my question. Is there any chance of another FPOVP coalition?

Not long ago, I have written a lengthy PM about this issue to a poster who PMed me about it.

Too bad I have already deleted the message.

In short: As of right now, there's no chance of another FPÖVP or ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, simply because of the previous coalition that was a fu**ing disaster and because the FPÖ is so toxic nationally (the Left would stage massive protests) and internationally (the EU countries would go nuts again). Also, there's the problem with the FPÖ's Nazi-statements here and then. In recent years, FPÖ-leader Strache has looked to make the FPÖ much more moderate and "mainstream", taking a tough line against anyone who makes such statements. But the risk still remains and the ÖVP does rather prefer a coalition with someone else.

There are also some areas where the FPÖ and ÖVP do not agree a lot: The FPÖ (like the SPÖ) wants a millionaire tax or higher taxes for high-income earners, the ÖVP is categorically opposed. The FPÖ wants basically no further immigration, the ÖVP wants as many (skilled) immigrants as the economy demands. The FPÖ opposes TTIP and TISA, the ÖVP favours it. And so on.

Of course, you can never rule an FPÖVP coalition out, but 2018 is a long way to go and under Mitterlehner (ÖVP-leader) it's really unlikely.

Any chance of SPÖ-FPÖ ever becoming a possibility? (say, within a generation or so)

How right wing is FPÖ on economics and labour relations in their present incarnation?

A) I'm no fortune teller, but the chances are quite low. Unless the SPÖ kicks Faymann's butt and votes in a new, more FPÖ-friendly leader.

B) The FPÖ is not right wing in economics and labour relations, but rather left-wing.

Nah, I wasn't asking you to look in the crystal bowl, I was just curious if the situation was parallel to Denmark with a so-called right wing populist party which in reality is pursuing economic, welfare & labour market policies quite similar to the SDs and some talk about a possible coalition "when the present generation of SD leaders are gone".

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As I've said, in topics like mass imnmigration and kowtowing to islam, more than 26% side with the FPÖ. But there are other issues/aspects, that explain why FPÖ has just 26% support. From this poll it is obvious that most Austrians do not agree with the increase of the influence of Islam in their country.

Unique Research poll for "Heute":

Do you agree with the phrase "Islam belongs to Austria" ?

  7% Yes, definitely agree
21% Yes, somewhat agree        => 28% agree

27% No, somewhat disagree
42% No, definitely disagree       => 69% disagree

  3% Undecided

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/150209_HEU/4

Yep, the idea that Islam ''belongs to Austria'' doesn't make much sense when it has only had a significant presence in the country for a handful of decades. Austria is a historically Christian country, through and through. Sadly, though, it has become largely secular; like most countries in Europe.

It is a very odd phrase - though it may make more sense in German. I wonder why they asked that question.

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The German phrase is "Gehört der Islam zu Österreich?"
Normally, "gehören" means "belong to"; I wonder if "belong with" is better here? It means roughly if the people think that Islam is a part of what is Austria; so not that they believe there should be no Muslims in Austria, but rather that they believe Islam is not a "real" part of Austria.

Thanks, that makes sense. It is still not a good polling question. There is too much room for interpretation. Asking if they thought "Islam is alien to Austria" would be better.

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It means roughly if the people think that Islam is a part of what is Austria; so not that they believe there should be no Muslims in Austria, but rather that they believe Islam is not a "real" part of Austria.

There's a difference? As soon as we start to define who is and who is not a 'real citizen' then we enter dangerous territory.

If you ask about a general category (ie Islam) you get different numbers than if you name a group of people (ie Muslims).

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Communists (KPÖ) and Pirates will run under a joint list for the Vienna state elections (which are held either in June or in the fall).

They already did so last year in the EP elections, when it was called "Europa Anders" (A different Europe).

Now it is called "Wien Anders" (A different Vienna).

They got 4% in Vienna at the EP elections, but the threshold for the state elections will be 5%.

Will be pretty hard to get in.

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So why is it that these Eritrean or Somalian asylum seekers insist on claiming asylum only in Central or Northern Europe? There are dozens of other countries in between. The answer, of course, is that these are for the large part economic migrants, not actual refugees fleeing from personal persecution.

Most of them are both, which is part of the problem. The UN refugee convention was created to take care of political dissidents from the Eastern bloc (mainly), whereas modern refugee streams from conflict areas have more in common with, say, Eastern European Jews fleeing to America in the late 1800s. They were both persecuted in their hellish homelands and in search of a better future for the children. The problem is we do not have another America to fill. We are in dire need of a total rethinking of the global refugee system, but there is no one to take charge of it.The UN is hopelessly inefficient.

The distribution of refugees should not depend on what countries they were able to reach by paying large sums to traffickers, but be allocated on a need basis.

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@Tender: IE may be wrong board to discuss refugee policy. It will derail the thread quickly . This is more IP or Political Debate stuff.

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the Hungarian fence turns out to be a joke, migrants simply cut it with an iron scissor.

It is temporary. The permanent "wall" they set up in November will be a different matter.

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I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

That would mean that the ÖVP would fully legitimise NEOS as a political force, which the current ÖVP still is not ready to do. They probably still think if they just wait and basically ignore them for long enough, they'll just go away (like the LIF in the 90ies), and that's what the ÖVP wants. They don't want competition to their remaining young-ish, urban-ish constituency, so they still hope NEOS will fade into oblivion just as any other liberal Austrian party so far has...
So, to come back to your question, ÖVP quite prefers the Greens as coalition partner, mainly because they're not at all competition.

But would NEOS not be more dangerous for them outside of government? Protest parties tend to become unpopular when they get responsibility.

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I'd say, from today's POV, a 50/50 or maybe 40/60 chance of either FPÖ/ÖVP or SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens. Depends probably on how much the ÖVP would get its way in the three-party coalition, because they'll obviously play the "if you don't want to we'll take Strache"-card. Yes, that's exactly how horrible the ÖVP is.

Wouldn't SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS be more acceptable than SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens for the ÖVP, in that case?

That would mean that the ÖVP would fully legitimise NEOS as a political force, which the current ÖVP still is not ready to do. They probably still think if they just wait and basically ignore them for long enough, they'll just go away (like the LIF in the 90ies), and that's what the ÖVP wants. They don't want competition to their remaining young-ish, urban-ish constituency, so they still hope NEOS will fade into oblivion just as any other liberal Austrian party so far has...
So, to come back to your question, ÖVP quite prefers the Greens as coalition partner, mainly because they're not at all competition.

But would NEOS not be more dangerous for them outside of government? Protest parties tend to become unpopular when they get responsibility.

NEOS is not really a protest party, and never was. It was always a party of more elitist people, and its rise before the 2013 elections was less a "populist" thing, but orchestrated from some old, grumpy people within the ÖVP (former Vice-Chancellor and Leader Erhard Busek, for example), and the so-called (largely liberal/conservative) "quality" newspapers (Presse, Salzburger Nachrichten, also Standard, though that's a left-wing-ish paper).

Protest parties can also originate in the elite. Liberal Alliance in Denmark is very much an elite baed protest party. I assumed NEOS was broadly similar.

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I haven't seen a term like this used in proper newspapers/TV stations, that's what I want to go to (well except the Kronen Zeitung, but whether or not you can call the Queen of the Austrian boulevard press a "proper" news source is again debatable...)

Why would that be debatable? It clearly isn't.

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The FPÖ has reached an all-time polling high in today's Gallup poll.

Not even among Haider did the FPÖ reach 32%, but peaked at 31% during early 2000.



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-SPOe-stabil-FPOe-zieht-weg/204809487

No surprise, if SD can poll at 27% in Sweden, why shouldn't FPÖ be at 32% in Austria. This is wrecking havoc with European politics.

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Somehow I think it's ironic for Austrians to want Germany to annex (parts of) Austria because of sentiments against the far-right

Well, it would mean that Hitler was born in (modern) Germany. They could then write him off as a Bavarian.

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Did the FPÖ ever consider running in Southern Germany? How do you think they would do in Bavaria or Baden-Würtemberg in the current situation?

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How popular is Mitty atm? Would replacing him with the twelve year-old foreign secretary insulate the OVP against the FPO's rise?

After lifting the ÖVP to new highs, he has fallen back to earth in the past year. He still has much better favorable ratings than Faymann though. And no, Sebastian Kurz would not be a threat to the FPÖ. Maybe for a short time, but the FPÖ can only be stopped by the FPÖ itself (at best by putting them into government).

Did the FPÖ ever consider running in Southern Germany? How do you think they would do in Bavaria or Baden-Würtemberg in the current situation?

That doesn't work that way. You cannot export a Far-Right party from a certain country to another and expect it to do well there too. You need a long standing tradition, core voters, a message that resonates and a well-oiled machine, which the FPÖ has established over the past 70 years. The AfD lacks all of that and that's why it sucks compared with the FPÖ.

Hmm, not totally convinced of that. The Swedish SD is basically a copycat operation on DPP, so I am not so sure it isn't doable if we are talking about two culturally closely related areas (which is why I emphasized Southern Germany). Of course there was a basis on which Åkesson & Co. could build the modern version of SD, but with its toxic Neo-Nazi/facist roots that basis was more of a liability than an asset for them. Though, it of course provided a bit of organization.

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An internal Austrian report states that the large and continuing flow of refugees that over the past several months have arrived in Europe could result in a number of serious risk scenarios.

The report is entitled ‘Sonderberichterstattung und Analyse der derzeitigen Migrationslage’ - 'Special report and analysis of the current migration situation'.

The report concludes, that as a result of the situation in Austria the police may be overburdened and that there is a threat to the maintenance of public order.

In addition, there is the danger that the asylum and supply system can be overstretched, just as there is a risk of inter-religious and inter-ethnic conflicts breaking out among migrants.

'There is a danger that the judicial and legal structures could be put out of force'

The report was really only for internal use, but several Austrian media have gotten hold of it anyway.

First, excerpts has been brought on Austrian TV, and then the full text in Krone Zeitung.

Krone Zetiung subsequently put the report on the net.

http://de.scribd.com/doc/282572361/Sonderberichterstattung-und-Analyse-der-derzeitigen-Migrationslage

The authorities initially denied the existence of the report, due to its politically explosive content.

(cross-posted from the refugee crisis thread)

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Seems like an epic fail that this has been leaked to the media. Reports like this should remain confidential for a reason. Is it Mikl-Leitner who is in charge of this? She will hopefully face serious questions about this.

Also, I cannot think of a better start of the final week of campaigning for the FPÖ.

I am more interested in the content than the political consequences, because it raises a couple of obvious points. And while its mostly things you could imagine for yourself it is always chilling to have those things pointed out in an official report. No matter how you feel about immigration and refugees the way this is developing is a severe security risk.

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true to their party line ...

That's what people voted for, if he wants to go against the party line and appear at FPÖ events to discuss about "privileged homosexuals, women and migrants" he should at least stand in an election.

Exactly. The Greens are a party of "left-leftist" thinking, Tender, and no whining will ever change that. If it had been the other way round - he being an FPÖ-politician but sympathising with the Greens - he would have been "axed" long ago, so why should the Greens continue to support him?

Great to see a new Austrian, by the way, Flocke, especially one with a Socialist avatar

Bullsh*t.

Apparently "left-leftist" thinking now means having no brain or no common sense anymore. Thinking that pro-Erdogan supporters who want to create a parallel-AKP in Austria are "normal" and that Burka-wearing women and foreigners abusing/taking advantage of the welfare system etc. are tolerable things ...

A party like the Greens need critical people like Dönmez who can speak up against the party line, to "wake up" the increasingly moral-apostolic party leadership. Yesterday they just behaved like plain fascists or the Nazis in the "Night of the Long Knives" ... just eradicating anyone who tries to speak up.

If a party like the Greens - who are preaching of tolerance and critical-thinking the whole time and expecting the whole world to do it, cannot handle a few independent-minded people with a spine and a different opinion, they are only to pity. Nothing more.

If you are sufficiently at odds with your party you should form a new one (despite the difficulties). There is a limit to how broad-tent a party can be.

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Still, it is very telling that Western European Social Democrats and Greens have a tendency to talk a lot about tolerance and openness, but cannot stand party members with a migrant background being open about the problems in their communities - for ideological reasons ("don't break my happy multicultural bubble", which often applies to Greens) or for electoral reasons (being too honest = scaring away constituencies that vote heavily for this party - this often applies to Social Democrats). Ayaan Hirsi Ali switching from PvdA to VVD in the Netherlands is also an excellent example for this.

We had an interesting case were the Alternative first silenced and then expelled their Integration Spokesperson Uzma Ahmed Andresen (an ethnically Pakistani feminist academic, who is married to a Dane, but a practicing Muslim) for advocating that immigrants who do not accept gender equality and other Western core values should be repatriated. Logical from a feminist POV, but unacceptable to their voter segment.

But still, the logical thing is to form separate parties based on this cleavage, its too important to handle within the traditional parties.