German Elections & Politics

[rob in cal]

   Klartext, agreed about problems with thresholds.  But, in the last federal election it was kind of like a perfect storm, where both FDP and AFD came so close to crossing the 5% line but just missed it.  Wonder how many right leaning voters who supported another party in that election regretted not helping the AFD over the finish line.

[freefair]

   Klartext, agreed about problems with thresholds.  But, in the last federal election it was kind of like a perfect storm, where both FDP and AFD came so close to crossing the 5% line but just missed it.  Wonder how many right leaning voters who supported another party in that election regretted not helping the AFD over the finish line.

A 4% threshold seems like a more reasonable target to reach. The last election was won by the right, but one couldn't know that from the results.

[DavidB.]

I was reminded of this: why is the electoral threshold in the European elections considered to be unconstitutional but the threshold in the federal election is not?

Because the federal elections are important, and the European elections are unimportant.

Well, actually the reasoning was like this: The Bundestag parties must be able to form a stable government and therefore it is of an advantage to have fewer parties in the parliament. On the other hand, the European Comission isn't formed by the European Parliament as such so it doesn't really matter if there are a trillion parties represented in the parliament.

Thank you.

[Middle-aged Europe]

   Klartext, agreed about problems with thresholds.  But, in the last federal election it was kind of like a perfect storm, where both FDP and AFD came so close to crossing the 5% line but just missed it.  Wonder how many right leaning voters who supported another party in that election regretted not helping the AFD over the finish line.

A 4% threshold seems like a more reasonable target to reach. The last election was won by the right, but one couldn't know that from the results.

There's no such thing as "the" right.

[DavidB.]

   Klartext, agreed about problems with thresholds.  But, in the last federal election it was kind of like a perfect storm, where both FDP and AFD came so close to crossing the 5% line but just missed it.  Wonder how many right leaning voters who supported another party in that election regretted not helping the AFD over the finish line.

A 4% threshold seems like a more reasonable target to reach. The last election was won by the right, but one couldn't know that from the results.

There's no such thing as "the" right.

Yeah, this is something people from countries with a sharp left/right divide often don't get about politics in countries like Germany or the Netherlands.

[President Johnson]

Wow, a brand new poll shows Merkel and Schulz tied, if the chancellor were to elect directly. Encouraging news!

[Zinneke]

   Klartext, agreed about problems with thresholds.  But, in the last federal election it was kind of like a perfect storm, where both FDP and AFD came so close to crossing the 5% line but just missed it.  Wonder how many right leaning voters who supported another party in that election regretted not helping the AFD over the finish line.

A 4% threshold seems like a more reasonable target to reach. The last election was won by the right, but one couldn't know that from the results.

There's no such thing as "the" right.

Yeah, this is something people from countries with a sharp left/right divide often don't get about politics in countries like Germany or the Netherlands.

And yet the last 2 election in those countries were fought on a black and white, left or right basis.

Then they allied with each other.

[ApatheticAustrian]

AfD and "the left" have more in common than the parties in between, imho.

[freefair]

Yeah, this is something people from countries with a sharp left/right divide often don't get about politics in countries like Germany or the Netherlands.

I'm quite aware that the FDP can go into coalition with the SPD, but that's certainly not in a way that is compatible with its current platform. Either way, disenfranchising 9.8% of the electorate, as happened in 2013, is unfair. Its not like 2 million list votes each is something to ignore in a PR system.

[Sozialliberal]

I was reminded of this: why is the electoral threshold in the European elections considered to be unconstitutional but the threshold in the federal election is not?

Because the federal elections are important, and the European elections are unimportant.

Well, actually the reasoning was like this: The Bundestag parties must be able to form a stable government and therefore it is of an advantage to have fewer parties in the parliament. On the other hand, the European Comission isn't formed by the European Parliament as such so it doesn't really matter if there are a trillion parties represented in the parliament.

Well, the German small parties cheered, but it didn't last long. The threshold was re-introduced through the back door. A law that was drafted by the MEPs Jo Leinen (SPD, Germany) and Danuta Hübner (PO, Poland) contained the introduction of an EU-wide minimum threshold of 3% for European Parliament elections. This minimum threshold was passed by the European Parliament in 2015 and would change the distribution of seats only in Germany and Spain.

Here is how the parliamentary groups in the EP voted on the minimum threshold. I broke down the party membership and country of the MEPs who voted differently than their parliamentary groups.

EPP
In favour: 173
Against: 7 (3x M, Sweden; 2x PN, Malta; 1x KD, Sweden; 1x UDC, Spain)
Abstentions: 1 (Kok., Finland)

S&D
In favour: 164
Against: 2 (1x FI, Sweden; 1x Possibile, Italy)
Abstentions: 0

ECR
In favour: 0
Against: 60
Abstentions: 5 (4x N-VA, Belgium; 1x Conservatives, UK)

ALDE
In favour: 39
Against: 14 (3x ANO 2011, Czechia; 2x independent, Ireland/Spain; 2x UPyD, Spain; 1x CDC, Spain; 1x DP, Lithuania; 1x EAJ/PNV, Spain; 1x Freie Wähler, Germany; 1x LZS, Latvia; 1x MoDem, France; 1x PDR, Portugal)
Abstentions: 9 (3x VVD, Netherlands; 2x Kesk., Finland; 1x ANO 2011, Czechia; 1x DP, Luxembourg; 1x MR, Belgium; 1x V, Denmark)

GUE/NGL
In favour: 0
Against: 43
Abstentions: 3 (2x AKEL, Cyprus; 1x independent, France)

Greens/EFA
In favour: 1 (Grüne, Austria)
Against: 40
Abstentions: 0

EFDD
In favour: 0
Against: 36
Abstentions: 0

ENF
In favour: 0
Against: 17
Abstentions: 0

Non-Attached Members:
In favour: 0
Against: 10
Abstentions: 0

Countries whose majority of MEPs voted against the threshold:
UK (43 against, 17 in favour, 1 abstention)
Greece (11 against, 7 in favour, no abstentions)
Sweden (9 against, 7 in favour, no abstentions)
Netherlands (10 against, 9 in favour, 3 abstentions)

Ties:
Ireland (5 against, 5 in favour, no abstentions)
Finland (4 against, 4 in favour, 3 abstentions)

It should be noted that particularly the majority ratios of small countries can change because of absent members of parliament (e.g. in the case of Denmark).

Source: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-%2f%2fEP%2f%2fNONSGML%2bPV%2b20151111%2bRES-RCV%2bDOC%2bPDF%2bV0%2f%2fEN&language=EN (A8-0286/2015 Am 2/2)

[DavidB.]

Thanks, that's very interesting. Didn't even know, probably because you need 3% to get in here anyway (though not much more than that, I think).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, this is something people from countries with a sharp left/right divide often don't get about politics in countries like Germany or the Netherlands.

I'm quite aware that the FDP can go into coalition with the SPD, but that's certainly not in a way that is compatible with its current platform. Either way, disenfranchising 9.8% of the electorate, as happened in 2013, is unfair. Its not like 2 million list votes each is something to ignore in a PR system.

The issue here is actually that the CDU prefers to form a coalition with SPD or Greens instead of one with the AfD.

And the SPD prefers - at least on the federal level - to form a coalition with CDU or FDP instead of one with the Left.

So, there are not two political "camps", but up to four: CDU/FDP, SPD/Greens, Left, and AfD.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if a party breaks away from your own party and vilifies you and takes on irresponsible hardcore positions, there usually won't be an alliance until the leading figures on both sides are gone.

[Bumaye]

Wow, a brand new poll shows Merkel and Schulz tied, if the chancellor were to elect directly. Encouraging news!

 
  
To compare that with the former races:  
  
Merkels lead in January of election year against:  
2017: +0, Schulz  
2013: +25, Steinbrück  
2009: +19, Steinmeier  
  
It is the very first time since Merkel is chancellor that she is not ahead. We will see how it goes though. Half of the Germans don't know what he stands for so everyone projects their hopes onto him at the moment. I would definitely welcome a European backlash with Schulz and Macron after this weird year 2016. I'll vote Green nevertheless but now there is at least some hope again for R2G. It was depressing to think the best possible outcome would be Black-Green.

[Klartext89]

Well, INSA made the same poll for BILD and it Shows a very different picture:

"Whom would you vote for?

Merkel 36,6%
Schulz 22,9%
None of them 30,4%
Don't know 8,1%
Refused 1,9%

Excluded Dk and R:

Merkel 40,7%
Schulz 25,5%
None 33,8%


Well, I guess he's getting a few nice polls from the governments channels and from SPD-Forsa, but there's a big Information campaign going on in the social networks about Schulz and therefore it won't last long.

[Zinneke]

Well, INSA made the same poll for BILD and it Shows a very different picture:

"Whom would you vote for?

Merkel 36,6%
Schulz 22,9%
None of them 30,4%
Don't know 8,1%
Refused 1,9%

Excluded Dk and R:

Merkel 40,7%
Schulz 25,5%
None 33,8%


Well, I guess he's getting a few nice polls from the governments channels and from SPD-Forsa, but there's a big Information campaign going on in the social networks about Schulz and therefore it won't last long.

You shilling for Merkel now, Klartext?

[ApatheticAustrian]

while this poll could easily be right you need to take everything INSA said with a ton of salt.

and sure...pro-gov channels are going to hype schulz....and forsa is pro-cdu or nothing.

[Klartext89]

Well, INSA made the same poll for BILD and it Shows a very different picture:

"Whom would you vote for?

Merkel 36,6%
Schulz 22,9%
None of them 30,4%
Don't know 8,1%
Refused 1,9%

Excluded Dk and R:

Merkel 40,7%
Schulz 25,5%
None 33,8%


Well, I guess he's getting a few nice polls from the governments channels and from SPD-Forsa, but there's a big Information campaign going on in the social networks about Schulz and therefore it won't last long.

You shilling for Merkel now, Klartext?

LOL, u know the answer ;-) But I'm sure that 30% neither is way closer to the truth than 11%.

[Klartext89]

while this poll could easily be right you need to take everything INSA said with a ton of salt.

and sure...pro-gov channels are going to hype schulz....and forsa is pro-cdu or nothing.

Sorry for laughing but it's always the same with Leftists: Always critizising INSA while you never read a bad word about Forsa-Güllner or Allensbach. Meanwhile, INSA has the best track record in the last state elections (2016) and the three left parties are polling higher with them than e.g. with Infratest or FGW. Forsa and Infratest have the left parties 0.5 points higher than INSA. Only AfD is better with INSA than with the others (except Infratest) and CDU is lower than with others. I can tell you why: There are lots of normally CDU voting people like my parents e.g. who really dislike Merkel and her refugee policies and are considering voting AfD but could also swing back in an election campaign.

You need to take every poll with a ton of salt. None of them is truly independent.

Forsa has a SPD member as CEO (or owner?) who openly hates AfD and is working for Stern/RTL.
Infratest works for ARD.
FGW works for ZDF
Emnid with BamS
Allensbach with FAZ
etc.

[ApatheticAustrian]

You need to take every poll with a ton of salt. None of them is truly independent.

long story short:

my problem is not the bias of INSA but their methods.

the other  pollsters are more or less transparent re: their work, bias or not, INSA's way of success is something like an educated guess out of nothing. finally the special sauce is taking over the business.

and ofc i know of their track record but you or I could have done the same if we wanted to.....just take an average of everbody else and bet against the coalition and on AfD.

seems more like a scam to me but well....maybe that's the only way to break through the reality of permanently lying voters.

[Klartext89]

You need to take every poll with a ton of salt. None of them is truly independent.

long story short:

my problem is not the bias of INSA but their methods.

the other  pollsters are more or less transparent re: their work, bias or not, INSA's way of success is something like an educated guess out of nothing. finally the special sauce is taking over the business.

and ofc i know of their track record but you or I could have done the same if we wanted to.....just take an average of everbody else and bet against the coalition and on AfD.

seems more like a scam to me but well....maybe that's the only way to break through the reality of permanently lying voters.

I love the crosstabs of US polls, would love to see the samples for German polls.

[Klartext89]

First poll (I assume) totally taken after the SPD "change":

Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl • Infratest dimap/ARD: CDU/CSU 35 %, SPD 23 %, AfD 14 %, GRÜ 9 %, LIN 8 %, FDP 6 %

Compared to last time (5th of January) it's SPD up 3, CDU/CSU down 2, AfD down 1, FDP up 1, Left down 1.

Well, there's an effect but way smaller than I expected. I guess Schulz got some CDU/SPD mainstream low information voters back and a bit "former SPD"-voters from the Left while AfD and FDP exchanged some former CDU/CSU backers because of the Höcke controversy.

[DL]

Most polls are in field for 5 to 7 days...A poll released today would likely have been fielded partially pre and partially post the Schultz announcement. Wait another week and then we will have some real polls.

[Bumaye]

Most polls are in field for 5 to 7 days...A poll released today would likely have been fielded partially pre and partially post the Schultz announcement. Wait another week and then we will have some real polls.

 
 
So we have some first Post-Schulz nomination polls and it definitely helps the SPD. In the projection of "Forschungsgruppe Wahlen" they climbed 3% in one week and in today's Ipsos poll the left leaning parties have 44%, the highest numbers they ever had in an Ipsos poll. 
 
Today Schulz officially became the candidate of the SPD and I can say that they are more euphoric then I ever saw them. He had a great speech today in the Willy Brandt Haus, the headquarter of the party where he mentioned first points of his campaign. Sounded pretty Sanders-esque to me. Bringing people together, fair taxation for huge corporations, justice and solidarity, fighting climate change, stopping the rise of the far-right in Europe and defend our democracy and our values against all attackers. As someone who likes bashing the SPD I have to say I liked it a lot.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am a longterm fan of schulz/juncker and even while i am pretty pessimistic about the chances of an european politican to succeed on the ground, i would vote for mister schulz.....and would never have voted for gabriel.