German Elections & Politics

[palandio]

    Do we have any data breaking down the electorate by whether they are public employees or not?  It would be interesting to see among the white collar electorate whether the CDU does much better among non-public employees and the Greens,Linke, SPD much better among public employees.

There are data for "Beamte", that is civil servants with a special status. Compared to the rest of the white collar electorate they tend to vote slightly more CDU and Greens, while the rest of the white collar electorate ("Angestellte") tends to vote slightly more SPD and Linke. But of course you need to take into account that in the recent past many new public employees have not been employed as "Beamte", except for some areas like police officers.

(Sibboleth is right: These are old-fashioned categories, not to be over-interpreted.)

@ David: Voter statistics for recent federal elections by type of employment, union membership and confession:
https://www.bundestag.de/blob/272928/f5acde8f297f7dd8ce148d79a3de1b1b/kapitel_01_11_stimmabgabe_nach_beruf_und_konfession__zweitstimme_-pdf-data.pdf

[ApatheticAustrian]

As one of the few people on this board who would prefer to to see a right-of-center party in the Bundestag, I do actually think the AfD would be better off w/o Höcke and some of his pals but achieving this may be close to impossible w/o sinking the entire party.

and that's the catch.

you compromose on that question, which doesn't make you an enemy of liberal values in any way....but it underlines how many voters and supporters of those parties don't detest the höcke wing enough to change their voting behaviour.

[Intell]

So on the whole does the overall left, get a higher % among the poor and working class, than among the middle/upper classes.

[Bumaye]

Today the new "Politbarometer" by public broadcaster ZDF was released. I guess I'll translate some of the more important points.  
  
Poll:  
  
  
They also release an unweighted set of data called "political climate" which looks like this:  
SPD: 42%  
CDU: 32%  
Grüne: 9%  
FDP 6%  
AfD 6%  
Linke 5%  
  
The rise of 13% for the SPD in that category since 27th January is the highest that ever happened in the history of the Politbarometer.  
  
Right now 44% (Basically CDU + AfD voters) of the people would oppose a Red-Red-Green coalition though the government favored by most is still the Grand Coalition. 33% say that this would be their favorite option.  
  
In the question which of the two major party candidates the Germans would prefer as chancellor Schulz has surpassed Merkel in a landslide. 49% favor Schulz and only 38% favor Merkel (Last Time: 40% Schulz; 44% Merkel) Which is ironic since a clear majority of Germans say that Merkel does a good job. Even a majority of Die Linke voters approve of her work as chancellor.  
  
  
  
By the way to throw in some US policy: 78% of the Germans say that they are worried about the policies of US president Donald Trump. It is just 58% for Wladimir Putin. Probably because Trump is the unknown factor that could destroy the balance of the world while Putin is a well known problem.  
  
Back to more uplifting news: Only 5% of the people asked said that they are non-voters while 15% say that they are not sure if they gonna vote. Back in the middle of 2008 some 20% were non-voters while 17% were undecided about voting. That resulted in the lowest turnout in the history of modern Germany with only 70,78% in the 2009 election.  
  
Asked about their own personal economical situation 65% of the Germans said it was good, 28% said it was partly good and 7% rated their situation bad.  
  
While a tiny 1 point majority (48%) says that Merkel handled the refugee crisis well and a clearer majority of 60% said that Germany is strong enough to deal with that much refugees the public opinion of the AfD has hit rock-bottom after the Höcke struggles. On a scale form -5 to +5 Germans on average gave the AfD a -3,5 rating, the lowest ever.  
  
The full Politbarometer can be found here: https://www.zdf.de/politik/politbarometer/170217-politbarometer-bilderserie-100.html#gallerySlide=0

[Bumaye]

New Emnid Poll: 
 
SPD: 33% (+1%) 
CDU: 32% (-1%) 
AfD: 9% (-1%) 
Linke: 8% (+0%) 
Grüne: 7% (+0%) 
FDP: 6% (+0%) 
 
Several big things about that: 
- The first theoretical R2G-majority since September 2015 (AfD and FDP both with 4% in that poll) 
- The worst AfD result since January 2016 
- The first time the SPD is the strongest party since November 2006 
- The best SPD result since November 2005 
 
I guess we are really meming this guy to the chancellorship. Huh.

[Tender Branson]

New NRW state election poll (in May):







Kraft also has a 64-33 job approval rating.

[Beezer]

Schulz, slayer of eco-hippies...

[jaichind]

New NRW state election poll (in May):







Kraft also has a 64-33 job approval rating.

If these were the results then SPD-Green alliance will fail to win a majority.  I do not know much about Kraft so I do not know what she would prefer: A SPD-Green-Linke or SPD-CDU alliance ?

[Yeahsayyeah]

In 2010 the outcome was a red-green minority government tolerated by Die Linke. This maybe gives a hint. Much will probably depend on weither Die Linke faction will be more of a dogmatic or a "realo" kind. Given the history of the party in NRW I would suspect the former, but I am not aware of newer developments.

[Beezer]

NRW offers quite a few pitfalls for the SPD. If a red-red-green government has an abysmal couple of months leading up the federal election, this could of course also be used by the CDU for their own "project fear" at the national level.

[jaichind]

NRW offers quite a few pitfalls for the SPD. If a red-red-green government has an abysmal couple of months leading up the federal election, this could of course also be used by the CDU for their own "project fear" at the national level.

Could not SPD counter with "Hey, if that is what we are planning we could have formed a SPD-Green-Linke government back in 2013."?

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Schulz and the SPD has peaked.

In the new YouGov poll, CDU gains 1.5% and the SPD loses 1% compared with last week.

This happens at the same time as comedians take on the blank slate Schulz more vigorously ...

[Beezer]

AfD with worst Allensbach result since December of 2015; last time the Greens were below 9% with this particular pollster was almost exactly 9 years ago.



Changes compared to Allensbach's #s 4 weeks ago:

CDU: -3
AfD: -3
Left: -1.5
Greens: -1
FDP: 0
SPD: +7.5

[DL]

It's interesting that Schulz has led the SPD to take votes from all parties...he has even taken a few points from the AfD even though he is more pro-refugee and more pro-EU than Merkel is. How does that happen?

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's the anybody but merkel protest vote which was hopeless a few months ago.

[Beezer]

Still think the AfD is primarily hemorrhaging voters due to infighting and that on top of that we're seeing the convention bounce (or drop) effect - AfD voters probably aren't too keen on taking part in polls right now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's interesting that Schulz has led the SPD to take votes from all parties...he has even taken a few points from the AfD even though he is more pro-refugee and more pro-EU than Merkel is. How does that happen?

The SPD initially lost some voters to the AfD.

The fact that the SPD lost voters to the AfD doesn't mean that all of them did it due to refugee policies. And some may have switched to the AfD due to the refugee policies and are returning now despite refugee policies. Or maybe refugee policies aren't as important as an issue anymore (which is certainly proved by polls on the issue).

Hell, the day before yesterday I've got a letter from a voter. Content: Said voter committed a hit-and-run accident, ramming a parking car while driving under the influence of alcohol. Court sentenced her to paying a fine. She thinks her sentence is unfair. Hence she announced her intention to vote AfD in the fall as a protest vote (even though, by her own admission, she doesn't agree with all of the AfD's political goals).

People do all kinds of things for all kind of reasons and most of them aren't logical at all. Voters cast their vote primarily based on emotion.

[JA]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1610HG

34% - CDU/CSU
31% - SPD
08% - AfD
07% - Linke
07% - Grüne
06% - FDP

39% - Merkel (CDU)
36% - Schulz (SPD)

[Beezer]

SPD has leapfrogged the CDU/CSU in the infratest dimap poll for the first time since 2006.



CDU -3
SPD + 4
Left -1
AfD -1
Greens, FDP 0

[ApatheticAustrian]

schulz is stagnating/losing in the new emnid poll.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

and - big surprise - far-right AfD ideological leader björn höcke participated in a a neo-nazi demo in 2010.

[DL]

schulz is stagnating/losing in the new emnid poll.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

and - big surprise - far-right AfD ideological leader björn höcke participated in a a neo-nazi demo in 2010.

The last three polls by Emnid have had the SPD at 32, then 33 and now 33...in other words no change whatsoever since surging ten points when Schulz took over...considering that 32/33 is the highest the SPD has been in the polls in over 10 years...i wouldn't call that "stagnating/losing" I'd call that plateauing at a very high level!

[jaichind]

schulz is stagnating/losing in the new emnid poll.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

and - big surprise - far-right AfD ideological leader björn höcke participated in a a neo-nazi demo in 2010.

The last three polls by Emnid have had the SPD at 32, then 33 and now 33...in other words no change whatsoever since surging ten points when Schulz took over...considering that 32/33 is the highest the SPD has been in the polls in over 10 years...i wouldn't call that "stagnating/losing" I'd call that plateauing at a very high level!

Yes.  But to be meaningful SPD has to overtake CDU/CSU and stay there.  Otherwise all the polls show a surge for SPD but the over dynamics has not changed.  Namely, no SPD-Green-Linke majority, no SDP-Green-FDP majority, and no CDU/CSU-Green-FDP majority.  So we will be stuck with a CDU/CSU-SPD government again unless SPD can overtake CDU/CSU to turn it into a SDP-CDU/CSU government which might not work because CSU might balk at that.  To be fair it seems most polls show SPD and CDU/CSU neck-to-neck now.  But any sort of slippage by SPD since it seems to have "plateaued" means we are back to the same de facto result as 2005 2009 and 2013 with the difference being SPD might have clout similar to the post-2005 election situation. 

[DL]

Its true, but a month ago who would have predicted that the SPD would gain as much ground as they did as a result of Schulz. When it was first announced that he would be the candidate for chancellor - the conventional wisdom was the SPD might get a "bounce" of 3 or 4 points. Instead it ended up being more like an 8-10 point bounce and so far it seems to be holding.

If the final polls in September continue to show the CDU and SPD neck and neck to be the biggest party, it raises two questions for me:

1. At what point do voters for the smaller parties start to feel the need to vote "strategically" to choose the chancellor. Let's say i am a Green voter but the final poll says that the CDU and SPD are deadlocked at 33% each and the Greens are at 8%. Maybe I'd consider "lending" my vote to the SPD knowing that the the SPD beats the CDU by so much as a single seat - Schulz would have a claim on being chancellor in a new grand coalition...of course some FDP voters could vote strategically for the CDU to keep Merkel - which could in turn have the unintended consequence of causing the FDP to fall below the 5% hurdle again and get no seats!

2. What would happen if the SPD beat the CDU by a handful of seats? Some say the CDU would refuse to be a junior partner to the SPD, so then what government would emerge? Could you have an SPD minority government?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I would assume an early election, with the CsU being punished if the public views its behaviour as childish.

[Boston Bread]

I would say an FDP voter would be more strategic to vote FDP and not CDU, since if FDP falls below 5% then R2G would likely have a majority. That would be a lot worse for FDP voters than SPD-CDU.