German Elections & Politics

[ApatheticAustrian]

In the last 37 years there were only 5 years when NRW was not ruled either by SPD/Green or SPD alone.

you are totally correct, i am ofc talking about other federl states and the national level, the left party in nrw is more or less powerless.

well, imho black - yellow is better than the "groko"....at least clear responsibilies.

[jaichind]

CDU-SPD gap getting smaller.  If it gets any smaller then CDU-FDP majority might not be viable even if Linke falls below 5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting swings in this election.

Not as much as you'd assume; the CDU campaign last time was a complete fiasco.

[Bumaye]

well, imho black - yellow is better than the "groko"....at least clear responsibilies.

 
  
I disagree. Black/Yellow would probably mean no more tuition free universities which would be horrible imho.  
  
______
Well, some group specific results:  
  
Workers:  
SPD: 37%  
CDU: 26%  
Linke: 10%  
AfD: 8%  
FDP: 7%  
Grüne: 3%  
  
College graduates:  
CDU: 31%  
SPD: 30%  
FDP: 18%  
Grüne: 11%  
Linke: 3%  
AfD: 2%  
  
Under 30:  
CDU: 31%  
SPD: 26%  
Grüne: 7%  
FDP: 7%  
AfD: 6%
Linke: 4%
  

[jaichind]

CDU-FDP only ahead of rest by 1 seat right now.

[palandio]

Just wondering, the completely counted districts are all going to the CDU but in most of them the CDU gains and the SPD losses are not as big as projected. These districts don't seems to be representative of NRW as a whole, but I wonder if the swing will be so much stronger in the under-counted more urban areas of the Rhine (probably, that's a swingy region) and Ruhr (that would be new).

edit: I see that the SPD losses in the Ruhr area are huge, often >10%.

[palandio]

AfD at 15.2% in Gelsenkirchen II (that is the southern one of the two Gelsenkirchen constituencies).

Gelsenkirchen is an SPD stronghold and also one of the Ruhr area cities most affected by unemployment, child poverty, debt and Romania and Bulgaria disposing of unwanted subgroups of their population.

[jeron]

AfD at 15.2% in Gelsenkirchen II (that is the southern one of the two Gelsenkirchen constituencies).

Gelsenkirchen is an SPD stronghold and also one of the Ruhr area cities most affected by unemployment, child poverty, debt and Romania and Bulgaria disposing of unwanted subgroups of their population.

SPD down to 37.5% from 50% there

[Bumaye]

AfD at 15.2% in Gelsenkirchen II (that is the southern one of the two Gelsenkirchen constituencies).

 
 
It's like poetry. The two strongest constituencies for the AfD so far are in Gelsenkirchen, the two strongest constituencies of Die Linke are in Dortmund. Gotta love the Schalke-Dortmund rivalry. 
 
Jokes aside it's pretty clear that the AfD is strong where the situation is most problematic. They are at more then 10% in cities like Gelsenkirchen, Bottrop and Herne while failing to reach 5% in areas such as Münster, Steinfurt and Coesfeld. 
FDP close to 20% in Düsseldorf. Some prejudices are true after all.

[palandio]

Also all four of the Düsseldorf districts are fully counted, while none of the seven Cologne districts is. (Maybe they will all come in at once?)

[palandio]

First district out of Cologne. Cologne III with DIE LINKE at 12.1%, up by 7.6%. Probably won't help them in the end, but still.

edit: Cologne III also has the highest Greens result so far, at 16.6%.

[Bumaye]

As it looks the SPD won the Ruhrpott, Cologne, Lippe, Aachen, Bielefeld and Minden-Lübbecke, the CDU winning everything else, most notably Düsseldorf, Münster, Bonn and Leverkusen. 

[jaichind]

It seems it is CDU+FDP 100 seats, everyone else 99 seats. 

[Bumaye]

It seems it is CDU+FDP 100 seats, everyone else 99 seats.  

 
  
Yes but as it seems the FDP has f-ed up something and a court will have to decide about one seat.  
  
  
  
  
Die PARTEI by the way with 0,65% (55.000 votes). More then doubled our votes (22.915 or 0,29%) since 2012. The 2nd best result in a non city-state behind Saxony in 2014 (0,71%).  
  
Pirate party is missing 0,05% to reach the 1% they would need for the campaign cost refund.

[MAINEiac4434]

So I don't think this is necessarily a repudiation of Schulz and the SPD. I think this is voters going with the trusted hand of the CDU in a time of great uncertainity.

[Klartext89]

well, imho black - yellow is better than the "groko"....at least clear responsibilies.

 
  
I disagree. Black/Yellow would probably mean no more tuition free universities which would be horrible imho.  
  
______
Well, some group specific results:  
  
Workers:  
SPD: 37%  
CDU: 26%  
Linke: 10%  
AfD: 8%  
FDP: 7%  
Grüne: 3%  
  
College graduates:  
CDU: 31%  
SPD: 30%  
FDP: 18%  
Grüne: 11%  
Linke: 3%  
AfD: 2%  
  
Under 30:  
CDU: 31%  
SPD: 26%  
Grüne: 7%  
FDP: 7%  
AfD: 6%
Linke: 4%
  

These are the ZDF Exit poll results, but ARD has totally different:

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-05-14-LT-DE-NW/umfrage-werwas.shtml

e.g. Workers AfD 17% (8% with ZDF). In other words: One is totally bogus. But which one lol...

EDIT: Again very interesting is the AfD Age result:

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-05-14-LT-DE-NW/charts/umfrage-alter/chart_95966.shtml

In contrast to what pundits and Leftists love to think, it's the working Age population who backs AfD while the old, government-dependend people want to remain the status quo (especially their pensions). Orit's because they mostly can't inform themself independent on the Internet and only get their "information" from the government-controlled left-wing media.

[rob in cal]

   If just a tiny bit of the SPD or Green electorate had voted for Die Linke and thus put them over the 5% threshold there would be no possibility of a CDU/FDP majority. 

[ApatheticAustrian]

   If just a tiny bit of the SPD or Green electorate had voted for Die Linke and thus put them over the 5% threshold there would be no possibility of a CDU/FDP majority. 

correct but the alternative would be even worse for left-leaning parties, imho.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Some new federal polls

INSA:
CDU/CSU - 36 (+1)
SPD - 27 (+/-)
AfD - 10 (+/-)
Left - 9 (-1)
FDP - 8 (+1)
Greens - 6 (-1)
Others - 4 (+/-)

Forsa:
CDU/CSU - 38 (+2)
SPD - 26 (-3)
FDP - 8 (+1)
Left - 8 (+/-)
Greens - 7 (+/-)
AfD - 7 (+/-)
Others - 6 (+/-)

[mvd10]

CDU/CSU-FDP at 44 and 46. It's probably not happening, but it would be great. We need the FDP to shift Merkel to the right on economic issues (even though it didn't really work out that way from 2009 to 2013).

[Beezer]

Would be quite amazing if after all the ups and downs during the legislative period (in terms of polling) we wind up with a fresh CDU/FDP government. Although I'm not sure the latter would really be well advised to enter government right away.

[windjammer]

Well, as long as the CDU/SPD coalition doesn't hold, I'm fine with any results

[Tender Branson]

Following the NRW-election, Germany shifts to the Right.

New ARD/infratest dimap poll:

[Zinneke]

How big of a mistake did the SPD commit by suggesting a R-R-G coalition?

[Klartext89]

Seems that CDU+FDP got their majority in NRW because of massive voter fraud against AfD there. They might lose it if AfD gets a 17th seat (which would cost FDP one).

AfD members are reporting fraud with 30-40 mails daily, party is investigating, first success already reached.

Mostly it's because of votes given to other parties instead of AfD so that the party mostly got 0,0% of party list votes while having double digit constituency votes. I'm sure it was all only an accident... and yeah, also pure random that only AfD is suffering such "mistakes"...

http://mobil.stern.de/politik/deutschland/afd-in-nrw-kontrolliert-einzelne-stimmauszaehlungen-der-landtagswahl-7459858.html