German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

[Tender Branson]

The AfD's two frontrunners Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland have met with FPÖ's Strache and Hofer in Vienna and asked them for advice in the coming German elections ...



The AfD is at 8%, while the FPÖ is at 25-26% right now (was at 35% late last year) and almost won the Presidency. So, the AfD is all like "How are you doing it ?" Well, no intra-party fights would be a first step ...

http://derstandard.at/2000058687815/AfD-Spitzenkandidaten-zu-Besuch-bei-der-FPOe

[Former President tack50]

So it's looking more and more like an easy Merkel victory, with the SPD going back tho the 25% or so they have been in for a long time.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am not surprised about a strong cdu (result of lots of non-voters and afd-voters coming back)

i am also not surprised by a stronger fdp and decreasing spd numbers.

but.....the acceleration of the process is really surprising for me!

a few weeks ago i would have guessed, 30% spd and 35% cdu would be a modest model.....

weak afd, weak green and weak spd, on the other hand, is kind of shocking, combined with a 40% cdu.....and that after merkel single-handedly broke some literal campaign promises and started the refugee crisis of 2015.

amazing.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So it's looking more and more like an easy Merkel victory, with the SPD going back tho the 25% or so they have been in for a long time.

Yep. Schulz really blew the opportunity to oust Merkel.

[JA]

Why has the SPD been essentially trapped in the 20s for years now? Considering the surge they had when Schulz first became party leader, it's obvious there's a large potential voter base for the party, but they seem incapable of actually capturing it. What has caused this dilemma for them?

[ApatheticAustrian]

left party split and merkel's leftish policies.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

INSA (2/6-6/6)

CDU: 38% (+2.5)
SPD: 23% (-3)
Die Linke: 11% (+1)
Greens: 7% (+1)
FDP: 11% (+1)
AfD: 8% (-1)

SPD continues to slide in polls. Pretty significant gains by Merkel. This is also the CDU's best results from this pollster since December 2015.

[Tender Branson]

The new AfD campaign posters (... are far more aggressive than the FPÖ-posters so far):

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[rob in cal]

  That first poster is taken from the Polish government playbook, in that Szydlo's government has rejected taking in non-European migrants, and instead have passed the Family 500+ law with the direct idea of raising the Polish population through a higher birth rate rather than through immigration.

[JA]

There's nothing at all wrong with policies aimed at increasing native birth rates, whether among Germans or anyone else, but to establish it upon such racial grounds is, well, racist. Those posters are a disgrace and an offense not only to Muslims, but all thinking Germans.

[Tender Branson]

 That first poster is taken from the Polish government playbook, in that Szydlo's government has rejected taking in non-European migrants, and instead have passed the Family 500+ law with the direct idea of raising the Polish population through a higher birth rate rather than through immigration.

From what I've read, births in Poland increased by 3.5% last year - but there are still more deaths in that country. Don't know if this has anything to do with the 500+ law, or if it's just a usual annual uptick.

Austria for example has very generous child and family benefits and the birth rate has increased to the highest level in 21 years last year.

But not because of an increase in births to Austrian mothers (they are actually lower by 1.000 compared with 10 years ago), but exclusively because births to foreign mothers more than doubled in the last 10 years.

10 years ago, 11% of children born were to foreign mothers - last year this increased to 25% of all births.

[rob in cal]

   I think the Polish birth rate did start going up more toward the end of last year. The 500+ plan only came into effect last spring, I believe.  I thought it was interesting because of the juxtaposition of the law with the overall migrant issue, much of which was tied up with the argument that all these young dynamic vibrant immigrants would help reverse the demographic decline of Europe.

[Lord Halifax]

There's nothing at all wrong with policies aimed at increasing native birth rates, whether among Germans or anyone else, but to establish it upon such racial grounds is, well, racist. Those posters are a disgrace and an offense not only to Muslims, but all thinking Germans.

If the purpose of a country is to be the national homeland for a particular ethnic group its hardly racist to try to increase the birth rate of this ethnic group rather than bring in other ethnic groups. Not all countries are supposed to be multiethnic societies. Sometimes that would undermine the entire basis for their existence as a separate state.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

If the purpose of a country is to be the national homeland for a particular ethnic group

that's a big assumption to make

[Lord Halifax]

If the purpose of a country is to be the national homeland for a particular ethnic group

that's a big assumption to make

Not really when it comes to a place like Poland. It was only recreated so the Poles could have their own country.

[Klartext89]

Infratest dimap/ARD (06.06.–07.06):

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 24% (-2)
FDP 10% (+1)
AfD 9%
LIN 8% (+2)
GRÜ 7% (-1)
Others 4%

CDU/CSU+FDP 48%
Red-Red-Greens 39%
AfD 9%

Pretty close to my (most realistic) wish result (Black-yellow with a slim majority and a double digit AfD controlling them to hold on to their campaign programme)

[Sozialliberal]

Survey on foreign policy (June 2017)

I think this is quite an interesting survey.


Statements on international policy

Question: I'm now going to read out a few statements regarding international cooperation. Please tell me if you tend to agree or tend to disagree with this statement.

"The states of the European Union should cooperate more closely on defence matters."
93% tend to agree
5% tend to disagree

"When the United States withdraws from global politics, the European Union should jointly take more responsibility at a global level."
80% tend to agree
17% tend to disagree

"Germany should aim at less cooperation at EU level and should act more independently at an international level."
31% tend to agree
65% tend to disagree


Trustworthy partners of Germany

The trustworthiness rating of the United States has plummeted under Donald Trump's presidency. The share of people who said that the U.S. can be trusted went down from 59% in November 2016 to 21% in June 2017, which is the same rating that Russia got.

Question: I'm going to mention a few countries. Please tell me if the respective country can be trusted as a partner for Germany or not.

France:
94% said "can be trusted"
4% said "cannot be trusted"

United Kingdom:
60% said "can be trusted"
35% said "cannot be trusted"

China:
36% said "can be trusted"
53% said "cannot be trusted"

Russia:
21% said "can be trusted"
74% said "cannot be trusted"

United States:
21% said "can be trusted"
74% said "cannot be trusted"

Turkey:
3% said "can be trusted"
95% said "cannot be trusted"


Satisfaction with international top politicians

Question: And the next topic is your opinion on a few top politicians. What about ...? Would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, less satisfied or not satisfied at all with his/her political work?

Emmanuel Macron:
59% responded with "very satisfied" or "satisfied"
9% responded with "less satisfied" or "not satisfied at all"

Theresa May:
22% responded with "very satisfied" or "satisfied"
59% responded with "less satisfied" or "not satisfied at all"

Donald Trump:
5% responded with "very satisfied" or "satisfied"
92% responded with "less satisfied" or "not satisfied at all"


International commitment of Germany

Question: Currently, it is debated whether the Federal Republic of Germany should commit itself more strongly when international crises arise. Do you think a stronger commitment of Germany in the case of international crises is fundamentally right or fundamentally not right?

62% said it is "fundamentally right"
33% said it is "fundamentally not right"


U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement

Question: The United States has decided to withdraw from the international Paris climate protection agreement. The federal government, on the other hand, has decided to remain committed to the agreement. The goal of the agreement is to reduce global warming to less than two degrees in comparison with pre-industrial times. In your opinion, is it good or not good that the federal government remains committed to the agreement?

93% think it is "good" that the federal government remains committed to the climate protection agreement
6% think it is "not good" that the federal government remains committed to the climate protection agreement


German-Turkish relations: Chances of improvement

Question: Because of considerable differences of opinion between Turkey and Germany, the federal government has decided to withdraw the Federal Armed Forces from the military base in Incirlik, Turkey. In your opinion, what are the chances that the German-Turkish relations will improve again in the next years?

1% said that the chances are "very high"
10% said that the chances are "high"
57% said that the chances are "low"
30 % said that the chances are "very low"


Information on the survey

Survey method: telephone interviews (CATI)
Sample size: 1,000
Survey period: 6th to 7th June 2017
Margin of error: 1.4 to 3.1 percentage points
Polling agency: infratest dimap
Full report: https://www.infratest-dimap.de/fileadmin/user_upload/dt1706_bericht.pdf

[TheSaint250]

Why is the FDP doing so much better in the polls? It surprises me that some say they could come ahead of Die Linke and AfD

[jaichind]

Infratest dimap/ARD (06.06.–07.06):

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 24% (-2)
FDP 10% (+1)
AfD 9%
LIN 8% (+2)
GRÜ 7% (-1)
Others 4%

CDU/CSU+FDP 48%
Red-Red-Greens 39%
AfD 9%

Pretty close to my (most realistic) wish result (Black-yellow with a slim majority and a double digit AfD controlling them to hold on to their campaign programme)

Wow, CDU/CSU-FDP closing in on majority

[Sozialliberal]

Why is the FDP doing so much better in the polls? It surprises me that some say they could come ahead of Die Linke and AfD

My guess would be that the increase has come from CDU/CSU-FDP swing voters who would prefer a black-yellow coalition and who, after seeing the remarkable state election results in SH and NRW, are quite sure now that the FDP has a good chance of re-entering the Bundestag this year.


Die Linke: Manifesto for the 2017 Bundestag election

So I'd like to inform you on the key points of Die Linke's 2017 election manifesto.

Note: Most of the following information is simplified because I don't want to bore or confuse you with the gazillion exceptions for every rule that the German law has to offer.

Income tax:
* The first 12,600 euros of a person's yearly income would be tax-free.
* Starting from 70,000 euros, the tax rate would be 53%.
* Starting from 260,000 euros, the tax rate would be 60%.
* Starting from 1,000,000 euros, the tax rate would be 75%.
The status quo: The first 8,820 euros are tax-free. The highest tax rate is 45%, which has to be paid on a yearly income from 256,304 euros up.

* Introducing a 5% tax on a person's private property if it is worth 1,000,000 euros or more.

Labour market:
* Raising the gross minimum wage to 12 euros per hour.
* People who work via temporary employment agencies would have to be paid 10% more than permanent staff.
The status quo: The gross minimum wage is currently 8.84 euros per hour.

Retirement:
* Lowering the retirement age to 65 years.
* Introducing a minimum retirement pension of 1,050 euros per month.
* Raising the pension level to 53% (i.e. the ratio of the standard retirement pension to the average payment of the gainfully employed population in a given year).
The status quo: People who were born in 1967 or later can retire at 67 years of age. The pension level is at 48%. There is no minimum retirement pension, which means that people have to claim benefits if their pension is not high enough to get by.

Welfare:
* Complete abolishment of Hartz IV.
* Abolishing benefit cuts for unemployed people who reject a job offer, or miss an appointment without an excuse.
* Raising the minimum unemployment benefit to 1,050 euros per month.
The status quo: The standard Alg II rate is 409 euros per month. Alg II is a type of unemployment benefit for people who have been unemployed for longer than 12 months or who have paid into the state unemployment insurance for less than 12 months within the past 24 months.

Foreign policy:
* No combat missions of the Federal Armed Forces in foreign countries.
* Basically, the same crackpot policies they've always had.
See:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180300.msg5153751#msg5153751
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180300.msg4803748#msg4803748

* Oh, and they want to abolish all German secret services, too ...

[Tender Branson]

First-time voters (18-21) are fully behind Merkel:

57% Merkel
21% Schulz

Among all voters:

53% Merkel
23% Schulz

http://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/wahltrend--martin-schulz-kann-bei-erstwaehlern-nicht-punkten-7491388.html

[Tender Branson]

Germany's largest state - NRW - will get a CDU/FDP coalition:

http://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/landespolitik/reaktionen-cdu-fdp-koalitionsvertrag-nrw-100.html

The coalition contract was finalized yesterday evening. CDU/FDP have just a 1 seat majority. The previous government was SPD-Greens.

...

And Schleswig-Holstein will get a CDU-Green-FDP coalition, also called "Jamaica".

This coalition contract was finalized today. The previous government was SPD-Greens-SSW.

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/schleswig-holstein/landtagswahl_2017/Jamaika-Koalition-eine-echte-Chance-fuer-SH,koalitionsvertragsh102.html

[mgop]

it's really nice to see that germans are so filthy rich, when they vote for cdu-fdp...

[kyc0705]

Green Party says it will only be part of a coalition if the legalization of gay marriage is guaranteed: http://www.dw.com/en/german-greens-make-same-sex-marriage-guarantee-condition-of-coalition/a-39294421