German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

If you take the aggregate poll data you get this breakdown of seats:



Black-yellow are 12 seats short of a majority, a leftist coalition would need 55 additional seats. And remember when red-green was a thing? They're a remarkable 118 seats short of a governing majority.

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This map shows the strongholds of the five big traditional parties in the last six federal elections.
A stronghold of a major party (CDU, CSU, SPD, Linke in EG) is defined as a constituency where they received more than 10 percentage points above the national result.
For the definition of a stronghold of a minor party (Linke in WG, Grüne, FDP) they used 5 percentage points.

[Tender Branson]

Here's another election tool for your vote-choice ("Vote Swiper"):

https://wahlswiper.de

My results:

[Zioneer]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

[Hydera]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

the "Schulz-train" was hype that was dependent on some CDU, AfD, Die Linke, Grunen voters going to SPD. TLDR: those voters went home when the hype died down.  He made a statement months ago that he would form a Red-Red-Green coalition if they had the votes which caused CDU voters to go home and once those other party voters realized that SPD wasn't going to top CDU they went home making everything just where it was before Schulz.

[Beezer]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

Cause the SPD has been a 22-25% party for close to a decade now.

[MAINEiac4434]

My washlswiper results:

[Zioneer]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

Cause the SPD has been a 22-25% party for close to a decade now.

Why, exactly? is it just that they've only been able to have limited appeal, even though they seem to be the standard center-left party that most European nations have?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

Cause the SPD has been a 22-25% party for close to a decade now.

Why, exactly? is it just that they've only been able to have limited appeal, even though they seem to be the standard center-left party that most European nations have?

The introduction of Hartz IV and the rise of the Left Party, both of which happened around the same time. Also, Angel Merkel governing as a sort of social-democratish Christian Democrat.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Tried to answer the Google-translated questions, hopefully most of them were comprehensible:








Looks like I'm pretty right-wing in Germany.

[Kingpoleon]

If you take the aggregate poll data you get this breakdown of seats:



Black-yellow are 12 seats short of a majority, a leftist coalition would need 55 additional seats. And remember when red-green was a thing? They're a remarkable 118 seats short of a governing majority.

Would this probably lead to a Jamaica coalition, with a majority of forty?

[Sozialliberal]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

Cause the SPD has been a 22-25% party for close to a decade now.

Why, exactly? is it just that they've only been able to have limited appeal, even though they seem to be the standard center-left party that most European nations have?

The introduction of Hartz IV and the rise of the Left Party, both of which happened around the same time. Also, Angel Merkel governing as a sort of social-democratish Christian Democrat.

The SPD has been suffering from increased competition.

Let's go back to the 1970s, when the SPD was at the height of its success. Bundestag election results above 40% were the norm for the SPD back then. That started to change when environmentalism became more important to many voters, and the Greens subsequently emerged. However, the most painful loss for the SPD happened in the 2000s when Die Linke became an established force in German politics. An important reason for that, as Old Europe has pointed out, were the Hartz reforms of the then red-green government. Those welfare cuts estranged many SPD core voters from the party. It lost its credibility as a party that helps the poor. Now the AfD is quite successful in elections. Only time will tell if they will become an established force like Die Linke or fade away like Die Republikaner in the 1990s. There are former SPD voters who indeed vote for this nationalist, isolationist party because they fear the increased competition from immigrants on the job market and also out of a sense of welfare chauvinism.

If you take the aggregate poll data you get this breakdown of seats:



Black-yellow are 12 seats short of a majority, a leftist coalition would need 55 additional seats. And remember when red-green was a thing? They're a remarkable 118 seats short of a governing majority.

Would this probably lead to a Jamaica coalition, with a majority of forty?

Let's assume this would be the actual election result. Likeliest scenario in my opinion:
Step 1: The negotiations for a Jamaica coalition would start. Personally, I think they'll probably fail. Firstly, I can't see the CSU and the Greens agreeing on immigration/asylum. Secondly, this coalition would be a nightmare for the left wing of the Greens.
Step 2: If the negotiations for a Jamaica coalition fail, there's the possibility that, out of a sense of "moral obligation", the (masochist) SPD would grudgingly agree to being Ms Merkel's junior partner for another four years.

I think it's very unlikely that a minority government is formed at federal level. Generally speaking, Germans are not risk takers. I think even a new election would be more likely if a majority government can't be formed.

[DavidB.]

Good analysis; with the caveat that people in countries that are used to having minority governments aren't "risk-takers" either: they just have a different political culture, in which having a minority government isn't (perceived) as risky.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If you take the aggregate poll data you get this breakdown of seats:



Black-yellow are 12 seats short of a majority, a leftist coalition would need 55 additional seats. And remember when red-green was a thing? They're a remarkable 118 seats short of a governing majority.

Would this probably lead to a Jamaica coalition, with a majority of forty?

My guess is that Jamaica won't happen and this would in fact lead a renewed Grand coalition.

The CSU doesn't really want to govern with the Greens, the Greens don't want to govern with both FDP and CSU at the same time, and the FDP doesn't want to share the spoils with a second junior coalition partner at their side.

The first obstacle (CSU doesn't like Greens) would still be present in a pure Black-Green coalition without FDP, but maybe it could be overcome. CSU wouldn't have an ally in form of the FDP to help them push the Greens out, and Merkel could tell the CSU to just shut the f**k up. Black-Green instead of Jamaica would also be a bit of an easier sell to the base of the Green party.

So, if it comes down to either Grand coalition or Jamaica the following will happen IMO: CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens start negotiations to form a coalition. At some point these negotiations will break down. Then the Greens will blame the FDP and maybe the CSU for this failure, CSU and FDP will blame the Greens for it in return. CDU/CSU then enters negotiations to form another Grand coalition.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The only people I think that really want a black-green coalition are Cem Özdemir and Katrin Göring-Eckardt (who are desperate for some amount of power) and Merkel herself, who probably enjoys the idea of steamrolling yet another junior partner into submission.

[Bumaye]

Die PARTEI in Dresden with the imho best poster in this election year:  
  

  
The style of the poster is taken from the CDU which uses the slogan "For a country where we can live well." This one instead reads "For a beach where we can lay well." and shows dead refugee Aylan Kurdi who drowned in the Mediterranean.  
  
Lot's of Dresdners and Users online where enraged that this "goes to far" so they released a statement:  
  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[MAINEiac4434]

I want a Die PARTEI majority government now

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By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

[Zinneke]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

[Tender Branson]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

If we add up "Austrian Politics" 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 - this combined megathread would have 480.000 views, compared to 300.000 for the German thread.

[Zinneke]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

If we add up "Austrian Politics" 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 - this combined megathread would have 480.000 views, compared to 300.000 for the German thread.

Let's not tho

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

If we add up "Austrian Politics" 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 - this combined megathread would have 480.000 views, compared to 300.000 for the German thread.

And how many thousand posts are by you?

[parochial boy]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

too many #hottakes about how Marine Le Pen was the real left winger

[Zinneke]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

too many #hottakes about how Marine Le Pen was the real left winger

It's a shame because I liked the comment of some R-XX guy saying that with Fillon doing badly the French Right should look for up and coming patriotic figures or something and cited Jean-François Copé as an example...that was a genuinely funny post.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What happened to the Bavarian who opened this thread?