German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

Germans are complete morons when it comes to this topic. Anyone wanting to read Mein Kampf can do so already. If it's a complete piece of junk, publish it so all those w/o internet access can see for themselves what a depraved human being Hitler was. They're in a sense glorifying the book by keeping it under wraps.

[Tender Branson]

The following parties will be on the Rheinland-Pfalz state election ballot on March 13:

[Tender Branson]

"Der 3. Weg" (The Third Way) is a Neo-Nazi party, btw.

Could also be named "The Third Reich" instead ...

...

I also thought "Die Einheit" (Unity) was Neo-Nazi, but it's actually a pro-migrant party.

[DavidB.]

What are the ideological differences between Der 3. Weg and the NPD?

[Tender Branson]

What are the ideological differences between Der 3. Weg and the NPD?

Their party names ?

[Yeahsayyeah]

The "Dritte Weg" is actually a "freie Kameradschaft" (street-fighting Nazi hoodlums) with a party banner, while the NPD is only collaborating and openly supporting such structures without beeing one and also have some people who ocassionally were suits.

So it is more a matter of style then ideology.

[MaxQue]

The "Dritte Weg" is actually a "freie Kameradschaft" (street-fighting Nazi hoodlums) with a party banner, while the NPD is only collaborating and openly supporting such structures without beeing one and also have some people who ocassionally were suits.

So it is more a matter of style then ideology.

Given Germany love for censorship and over-nannying (ie. the dreadful, dictatorial and index-like BPjM), how those "Kameradschaft" not banned?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Isn't Der 3. Weg something close to paganism-nationalism? NPD is rather rarely touching issue of religion as far as I know.

[DavidB.]

I, too, am amazed by the fact that this vile organization is not only still allowed to exist, but can even contest in elections. Wow.

Anyway, I looked up some more information on them. It seems that they are, indeed, pagans: they are explicitly anti-Christian and want to replace Christianity with "Artgemeinschaft" ideas, which is basically Germanic paganism mixed with racism/white supremacism. They are also very "leftist"/interventionist when it comes to the economy, standing within the tradition of the NSDAP's left (though I'm not sure if this is much different from the NPD).

[Yeahsayyeah]

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The BPjM isn't index-like. "Media imperiling the youth" are going "on the index", literally.

The irony is, that the "Kameradschaft" organisations this party is based on are already banned, but parties are specially protected by the Grundgesetz, in that they only can be banned via the Constitutional court. . This is an expensive procedure, so it is only used for quiet important parties and not for obscure right and left wing splinter groups. (There is an NPD case pending at the moment, but it would only be the third banned party in BRD/FRG history). There is also a minor procedure, that the Constitutional Court can state, that an organisation isn't a party, so it can be banned as a normal association. This happened to another militant Neonazi organisation, the FAP (Freiheitliche Arbeiterpartei) in 1994.

[Tender Branson]

First polling after the Cologne "incidents" shows the AfD at a new record-high and the SPD at a new record low (CDU/CSU is also pretty low):

35.0% CDU/CSU
21.5% SPD
11.5% AfD
10.0% Greens
10.0% Left
  6.0% FDP
  6.0% Others

[DavidB.]

First time that AfD comes in third?

[Zanas]

First time that AfD comes in third?

No, they've already been third federally in November. But with the Istanbul bombing having made mostly German casualties, we can expect them to only go up from here...

[Beezer]

AfD also at 9% in Forsa poll, best result since Oct. 2014 and tied for their highest ever with that polling firm.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[Beezer]

Polls for March state elections

Saxony-Anhalt...could AfD actually come in 2nd?

CDU 33 %
Left 19 %
SPD 19 %
AfD 15 %
Greens 5 %
FDP 3 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm

Rhineland-Palatinate

CDU 37 %
SPD 31 %
Greens 9 %
AfD 8 %,
FDP 5 %
Left 5 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/rheinland-pfalz.htm

[Beezer]

Baden-Württemberg poll (change compared to Dec. 2015):

CDU 35 (-2)
Greens 28 (+3)
SPD 15 (-3)
AfD 10 (+2)
FDP 6 (+1)
Left 3 (-1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

[rob in cal]

     Beezer, what do you think  the new Baden Wurtemberg government would look like if the polls hold up like that?  A CDU FDP coalition with the AFD tolerating it?  Or would the AFD not want to do this and thus maybe a CDU SPD coalition, or CDU minority government?  Would love to see the AFD overtake SPD as third largest party, that would make for a nice electoral earthquake.  If there is no sign of a lessening of the refugee flows that might be possible, I would think.

[Beezer]

I think for the time being the AfD like most upstart right wing parties would want to steer clear of any governing responsibility. At the same time it would cause huge outrage if the CDU took over with the help of the AfD. The party is treated like a pariah by the establishment and it is by far Merkel's most vehement critic. You really can't portray a party like the AfD as racists and then get into bed with them. Scholars would probably also argue that this might only legitimize the party and make it even stronger in future elections as voters are sent the signal that far from being too far to the right, the AfD is just another player within the German party system. So marching orders from Berlin would probably put a stop to any sort of cooperation with them.

So what are the other options then...perhaps another grand coalition could be in the cards for BW. Seems like the only viable gov. majority.

New poll commissioned by German public broadcaster ZDF showing the AfD in 3rd place as well (#s compared to Dec 11):

CDU 37 (-2)
SPD 24
AfD 11 (+2)
Grüne 10
Linke 8 (-1)
FDP 5 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/politbarometer.htm

[Beezer]

Latest Infratest-dimap polls + west and east preferences:

[Beezer]

How do you rate Merkel's handling of the refugee crisis (gut = good, schlecht = bad/poor)?



http://www.heute.de/fluechtlingskrise-merkel-stuerzt-ab-mehrheit-haelt-obergrenze-von-200.000-nicht-fuer-machbar-41820126.html

[Tender Branson]

Polls for March state elections

Saxony-Anhalt

AfD 15 %

Rhineland-Palatinate

AfD 8 %

Baden-Württemberg poll (change compared to Dec. 2015):

AfD 10 (+2)

...

The AfD will gain across the board, maybe getting 10% or more in the 2 south-western states and 15-20% in the eastern Sachsen-Anhalt.

My prediction (even before the Cologne rapes) doesn't look that off now ...

[Sozialliberal]

Black-Green would also be a viable coalition in Baden-Württemberg. Both top candidates, Wolf (CDU) and Kretschmann (Greens), said they don't rule it out.

The situation in Saxony-Anhalt, however, looks more complicated. A continuation of the grand coalition could be the only viable coalition there. It's unclear whether Red-Red-Green will have a majority.

By the way, Saxony-Anhalt has the reputation of being the state with the most volatile electorate in Germany. Look up their state election results from 1990 onwards and you'll understand why.

The CDU top candidate in Rhineland-Palatinate, Julia Klöckner, is decidedly more restrictive/conservative than Chancellor Merkel when it comes to asylum/immigration/integration policies. It will be interesting to see if it'll pay off for her on election day.

[Beezer]

Black green sounds interesting. Would the Greens really enjoy playing second fiddle to the CDU though, particularly one that will inevitably move to the right on the migrant topic (and after they've held the office of state premier)? Feels to me like the CDU has backed itself into a corner here. If it enters another high-profile coalition with the Greens my hunch is that even more of the party's right will migrate to the AfD. At the same time it only has one other credible coalition partner, the SPD.

[SNJ1985]

New Emnid poll

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 24%
Grünen: 10%
AfD: 9%
DL: 9%
FDP: 5%
Others: 5%

[Beezer]

INSA