German Elections & Politics

[Enno von Loewenstern]

The FDP is fading away. So much, that even articles about their declining are rarley. Here is one of them:

B.Z. (a Berlin daily newspaper)

No recovery, the FDP - how a party disappears
By Michael H. Spreng

Six months ago, she put four federal ministers, today it has disappeared from the public radar - the FDP. The small party that failed in the general election at the five per cent threshold has not recovered even under its new chairman, Christian Lindner.

The FDP languishes in the polls at three percent. In the newspapers and on television, she appeared only rarely like the Loch Ness monster . And here the question arises : Does it exist at all (yet) ? Only Wolfgang Kubicki adorns the talk shows. But he only presents himself, not the FDP.

The FDP must now determine how severe extra-parliamentary opposition, especially for a bourgeois party . In the European elections it is ranked only 7 of the result appear - according to the CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, "The Left " and AfD . And in the three East German state elections it has nowhere the chance.

The FDP has to date provided no argument that it is still needed . What is your unique selling proposition, what are their issues, what they can do better than the others?

In today's media society only the established and the shrill have a chance to be noticed . And the FDP is not established and shrill they do not want to be .

The FDP can only hope that the CDU / CSU commits serious errors in the grand coalition and gives her back room to be noticed and chosen. This does not happen, then it will gradually disintegrate in the extra-parliamentary opposition.

--------

The FDP is down from 14,6% in the federal elections 2009, to 4,8% in the elections 2013 and now at 3-4% in the surveys. The next elections are also not very helpful. In the European elections the FDP stands in the polls at 3% (down from 11%) and the surveys for the next state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg see them declining towards 2%. After September 2014, the FDP will probably sit in no state government (the last one is of Saxony) anymore and will be represented in only 6 out of 16 state parliaments (early 2015 possibly only in 5 because of the elections in Hamburg).

[politicus]

The FDP is fading away. So much, that even articles about their declining are rarley. Here is one of them:

B.Z. (a Berlin daily newspaper)

No recovery, the FDP - how a party disappears
By Michael H. Spreng

Six months ago, she put four federal ministers, today it has disappeared from the public radar - the FDP. The small party that failed in the general election at the five per cent threshold has not recovered even under its new chairman, Christian Lindner.

The FDP languishes in the polls at three percent. In the newspapers and on television, she appeared only rarely like the Loch Ness monster . And here the question arises : Does it exist at all (yet) ? Only Wolfgang Kubicki adorns the talk shows. But he only presents himself, not the FDP.

The FDP must now determine how severe extra-parliamentary opposition, especially for a bourgeois party . In the European elections it is ranked only 7 of the result appear - according to the CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, "The Left " and AfD . And in the three East German state elections it has nowhere the chance.

The FDP has to date provided no argument that it is still needed . What is your unique selling proposition, what are their issues, what they can do better than the others?

In today's media society only the established and the shrill have a chance to be noticed . And the FDP is not established and shrill they do not want to be .

The FDP can only hope that the CDU / CSU commits serious errors in the grand coalition and gives her back room to be noticed and chosen. This does not happen, then it will gradually disintegrate in the extra-parliamentary opposition.

--------

The FDP is down from 14,6% in the federal elections 2009, to 4,8% in the elections 2013 and now at 3-4% in the surveys. The next elections are also not very helpful. In the European elections the FDP stands in the polls at 3% (down from 11%) and the surveys for the next state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg see them declining towards 2%. After September 2014, the FDP will probably sit in no state government (the last one is of Saxony) anymore and will represented in only 6 out of 16 state parliaments (early 2015 possibly only in 5 because of the elections in Hamburg).

It wont be missed by many - left or right.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

The FDP is fading away. So much, that even articles about their declining are rarley. Here is one of them:

B.Z. (a Berlin daily newspaper)

No recovery, the FDP - how a party disappears
By Michael H. Spreng

Six months ago, she put four federal ministers, today it has disappeared from the public radar - the FDP. The small party that failed in the general election at the five per cent threshold has not recovered even under its new chairman, Christian Lindner.

The FDP languishes in the polls at three percent. In the newspapers and on television, she appeared only rarely like the Loch Ness monster . And here the question arises : Does it exist at all (yet) ? Only Wolfgang Kubicki adorns the talk shows. But he only presents himself, not the FDP.

The FDP must now determine how severe extra-parliamentary opposition, especially for a bourgeois party . In the European elections it is ranked only 7 of the result appear - according to the CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, "The Left " and AfD . And in the three East German state elections it has nowhere the chance.

The FDP has to date provided no argument that it is still needed . What is your unique selling proposition, what are their issues, what they can do better than the others?

In today's media society only the established and the shrill have a chance to be noticed . And the FDP is not established and shrill they do not want to be .

The FDP can only hope that the CDU / CSU commits serious errors in the grand coalition and gives her back room to be noticed and chosen. This does not happen, then it will gradually disintegrate in the extra-parliamentary opposition.

--------

The FDP is down from 14,6% in the federal elections 2009, to 4,8% in the elections 2013 and now at 3-4% in the surveys. The next elections are also not very helpful. In the European elections the FDP stands in the polls at 3% (down from 11%) and the surveys for the next state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg see them declining towards 2%. After September 2014, the FDP will probably sit in no state government (the last one is of Saxony) anymore and will represented in only 6 out of 16 state parliaments (early 2015 possibly only in 5 because of the elections in Hamburg).

It wont be missed by many - left or right.

Yes, the majority do not miss the FDP, but of course there is a need for liberal principles. The question will be whether the other parties can also promote these values​​. The coalition between the CDU, CSU and SPD acts mainly social democratic. The opposition in the parliament is consisting of the even more left-wing Greens and "The Left". With 4.8% for the FDP, 4.7% for AfD and 1% "Free Voters" about 10% of the bourgeois, liberal-conservative voters are not represented in parliament. It is not yet clear how far liberal (former FDP-)voters feel represented by the FDP competitiors. The AfD has currently taken over the nationalliberal voters. The economic liberals currently share on CDU, AfD and still FDP. The Civil rights and rule of law followers share on AfD, Greens, Pirates and FDP.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF

41% CDU/CSU
25% SPD    
10% Greens       
10% Left
-----    
4% AfD
4% FDP
6% Others

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Emnid

42% CDU/CSU
23% SPD    
10% Left   
9% Greens   
6% AfD
-----
4% FDP   
6% Others

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Forsa for Stern and RTL

41% CDU/CSU
23% SPD   
10% Left   
10% Greens   
6% AfD
-----
4% FDP   
6% Others


INSA for BILD

40,5% CDU/CSU
23,5% SPD   
10,0% Left   
10,0% Greens   
5,5% AfD
5,0% FDP
------
2,0 Pirates 
3,5% Others

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That's a rarity: the FDP poking over the threshold for once.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

That's a rarity: the FDP poking over the threshold for once.

Yes, that is exceptional, but even if the FDP would reach out in the European elections to the 5%, this electoral year will be very, very hard for them. Because the three state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg are without a chance for the FDP and that will determine its national image. But there is still room for the party, particularly in West Germany. Much will depend on the development of the AfD. It is pretty sure that the AfD will be ahead of the FDP at the european elections and the three state elections. But the question is whether the AfD survive their early years without Impolosion. It is currently still completely unclear for the next years whether both parties will be above or below 5%, or only one of the two and if so, which.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Allensbach for FAZ

40,0% CDU/CSU
26,5% SPD
11.0% Greens   
8,0% Left     
5,0% AfD
-----
4,5% FDP   
5% Others

GMS

41% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
10% Greens   
10% Left     
6% AfD
-----
4% FDP
2% Pirates
1% Free Voters   
2% Others

[windjammer]

I haven t seen this thread, my bad!

Seriouly, who will miss the FDP?

[EPG]

The FDP must hope the CDU/CSU drops from their current elevated support level, which will happen sooner or later. Not everyone there will want the AfD, if it's even around.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't really know. Short of raising taxes, Merkel has capitulated on literally every economic issue the FDP could attack her on from the right, and still the FDP can't take advantage. Worse, they can't really act as a right-wing protest vote sponge because of the AfD.

I don't think the FDP is quite at PASOK level terminal decline, but unless it carves out a niche it'll be pretty much gone.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I doubt that the FDP will manage to make a comeback as long as the younger* and more aggressive competition in the form of the AfD is around.

(Little known fun fact: The current press secretary of the AfD, Christian Lüth, worked as a chief of staff for a FDP Bundestag member until the FDP was obliterated at the polls last year. Some have already jumped the ship. )

* figuratively speaking, the individual members of the AfD leadership are actually not of a younger age than the FDP leadership's

[EPG]

All the FDP really need is either:
a. the AfD to drift away in the same manner as the Pirates, or
b. an extra 0.2% on top of their 2013 result.

Certainly, I would be on the FDP to return to the Bundestag as the grand coalition's centrist-to-centre-left nature becomes evident in deeds rather than words - though as of right now, I'd expect the AfD to do better.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

All the FDP really need is either:
a. the AfD to drift away in the same manner as the Pirates, or
b. an extra 0.2% on top of their 2013 result.

Certainly, I would be on the FDP to return to the Bundestag as the grand coalition's centrist-to-centre-left nature becomes evident in deeds rather than words - though as of right now, I'd expect the AfD to do better.

The FDP has made ​​the mistake not to develop in the direction of a dutch VVD or danish Venstre (perhaps with a soft populist touch). This option is now lost due to the AfD (as this is their "left-wing"). The left path is blocked, because the political landscape left of center is overcrowded: SPD, Greens, Left, Pirates there's no space. That leaves them only to their old course and the hope that voters who are disappointed with the kind of socialdemocratic acting of the CDU in the grand coalition, because they are economic liberal but pro-European leave the CDU and back the FDP again. On the other hand, the future development of the AfD is still completely open. Even if they should be successfully four times this year (Europe, Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg) what is not completly sure yet, no one knows whether they can keep their fractions togehter over the years and make reasonable working or falling out and produce scandals. The AFD currently has the better cards, but also the FDP still some substance. If both remain in the game until/after the next general elections it gets interesting, because a CDU without Merkel will face real problems and will give both (FDP and AfD) futher options. But this is a long way till then.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Emnid

40% CDU/CSU
25% SPD   
10% Greens
9% Left     
6% AfD
-----
4% FDP   
6% Others

[Enno von Loewenstern]

facebook likes of the main german parties

97.778 AfD
89.429 Pirates
77.830 CDU
70.311 SPD
63.528 Left
48.424 Greens
27.455 FDP
21.670 CSU

[Zanas]

facebook likes of the main german parties

97.778 AfD
89.429 Pirates
77.830 CDU
70.311 SPD
63.528 Left
48.424 Greens
27.455 FDP
21.670 CSU

Are you in fact Tender Branson in disguise ?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

facebook likes of the main german parties

97.778 AfD
89.429 Pirates
77.830 CDU
70.311 SPD
63.528 Left
48.424 Greens
27.455 FDP
21.670 CSU

Are you in fact Tender Branson in disguise ?

If you want me to be ...





Forsa for RTL and Stern

41% CDU/CSU
24% SPD   
10% Greens
10% Left     
5% AfD
-----
4% FDP   
6% Others


Insa for BILD

41,0% CDU/CSU
24,5% SPD   
10,5% Greens
9,0% Left     
5,0% AfD
-----
4,5% FDP
2,0% Pirates   
3,5% Others

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Infratest dimap for ARD

41%CDU/CSU
25%SPD
10% Greens
10% Left
5% AfD
----
4%FDP
5% Others

[Enno von Loewenstern]

This survey is for the European elections, but their results make inferences about the upcoming state elections. With 7% for the AFD in the german average, they are so in Saxony at about 10% and in Thuringia and Brandenburg at 7-9% and thus have excellent starting conditions for the forthcoming state elections this year. The FDP with 4% in the German average is thus lie in Brandenburg and Thuringia at about 2%. In Saxony the FDP is actually stronger (they are there clearly more conservative than the national party) but have there tough competition from (there also significantly more conservative) CDU and the AfD. With the state of today it looks like any good year for the FDP, the AfD on the other hand has all the chances (and of course risks).

INSA for FocusOnline

CDU/CSU 36%
SPD 28%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

[palandio]

Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.

I can think of three reasons:

* Voters like Merkel, but not her party. Therefore, they're going to swing against the CDU without the risk of losing her. That includes the right flank which is attracted to AfD.

* The AfD's Eurosceptic message is more attractive than its views on running the country federally (see: UKIP).

* People voting in these elections are less pragmatic and more idealogical than the general election crowd,

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.

Of course you're right that in order to discuss the possible results of the elections at the state level, the federal polls are actually more suitable. However, this is about the momentum and the electoral calendar. If the results of the AfD in these three states should be particularly strong and the results of the FDP should be particularly weak there, so that will also influence media coverage and voter behavior in this direction. The first state election is in Saxony. Should there the AfD reach almost 10% for the EP, it will help her to be perceived as a strong force in the eyes of the media and therefore of the voters. This will affect voters who otherwise might have the worry of wasting their vote (5% threshold). Also, voters who want to protest against the established media and parties, plus conservative FDP voters who do not want to waste their vote, same for NPD, and maybe some who just wants to be with the winning team. If saxonian results are strong for AfD, this of course also has an effect on the neighboring federal states of Thuringia and Brandenburg and their elections a few weeks later. Because the main reason for the founding of the AfD was the Euro-crisis and because of (though narrow) data available from the recent federal election, the Hessian state election and four Bavarian municipal elections, which shows that the AfD is the more successful, the higher the administrative level of the election is I would currently estimate that one can derive as follows: 7% in the EP polls means 5,5% in the federal elections, 4,25% in national average of the state level elections and a bit less than 3% on the muncipal level. As Saxony is the AfD stronghold 7% for the EP nationwide means about 10% there and this should be 7% on the state level. That could give the AfD in Thuringia and Brandenburg (where their level of organsisation is weaker) a little boost to get above the 5% threshold. Because of these potential chain reactions i think we can take the EP survey for predictions about the three state elections.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.

I can think of three reasons:

* Voters like Merkel, but not her party. Therefore, they're going to swing against the CDU without the risk of losing her. That includes the right flank which is attracted to AfD.

* The AfD's Eurosceptic message is more attractive than its views on running the country federally (see: UKIP).

* People voting in these elections are less pragmatic and more idealogical than the general election crowd,

The three states differ in their initial position. Saxony is an absolute stronghold of the CDU. The CDU here depends a little less of Merkel. The country has formed a strong regional identity and is something like the East German Bavaria. Significantly more identity conscious, more patriotic, less politcally correct and more conservative than other parts of Germany. The CDU has ruled since the first free elections and is unchallenged. Both the CDU and FDP are clearly to the right of their federal parties. Nevertheless, there was still room for the far-right NPD which has been successful in the last two last elections. But you're right insofar as the bourgeois voters, unlike in the general election, are without worrying about loss of power of the CDU. The CDU will govern Saxony in any case, even after the elections. Either with majority, or with the SPD or the Greens (most likely not with the AfD because they are "too new"  and the CDU has no interest in helping them establish).

Brandenburg is the total opposite of Saxony for the CDU. Here they are traditionally weak and divided. This state is a stronghold of the SPD and The Left  and it is quite certain that the SPD will win again. The result of the CDU will likely depend on whether there is a power perspective, if the SPD offers them a coalition possibility. For two legislative sessions the far-right DVU had been above 5% (the party later merged with the NPD). There is a potential for protest and right-wing voters, which the AfD could absorbe. The likely AfD Frontrunner Alexander Gauland is fairly well known in Brandenburg, because he was the editor of one of the two major newspapers in the country and is a more or less famous conservative publicist even nationwide.

In Thuringia CDU is since 1990 continuously the ruling party, but in a bit weaker position than in Saxony. The current CDU/SPD coalition is characterized by several small scandals. The main change in the countries politics is that the SPD, for the first time ever (!), agrees a coalition with "The Left ", even if the Left should get more votes than the SPD. So there is a clear option for a red- dark red alliance. The CDU would therefore prefer to form a coalition with the Greens. The current surveys are , however, very uncertain for such a black-green coalition Cabinet. The only chance to prevent a red- dark red coalition is a AfD into parliament, then there is only the possibility of continuing the grand coalition under the leadership of the CDU. This could be an argument for tactical voters and help the AfD. The AfD has indeed achieved here in the Bundestag elections the second best result, but its thuringian organisation is weak, divided and without strong and well kown candidates and therefore need additional external effects as succsessful EP elections, success in Saxony and tactical arguments.