German Elections & Politics

[DL]

As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?

I think it's more of a problem that the Left is anti-Treaty of Lisbon, anti-NATO, anti-sanctions against Russia, anti-German troops in Afghanistan, and anti-couple of other things in foreign policy which are generally supported by SPD/Greens.

As soon as you form a SPD-Green-Left coalition government and something in the world happens which requires a decision by the German government, said government will probably fall apart and be replaced by a Grand coalition again.

All of thoise issues are about foreign policy...what is the obstacle to SPD-Linke coalition at the state level?

[Middle-aged Europe]

All of thoise issues are about foreign policy...what is the obstacle to SPD-Linke coalition at the state level?

Not that much of an obstacle. There is currently one in Brandenburg, there have been such coalitions in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin (and de facto in Saxony-Anhalt too).

Saxony and Thuringia are a bit of different case, because the SPD is usually weaker than the Left there and that means they would have to concede the office of the minister-president to the Left Party. Which means the SPD would have to officially recognize that they are not the major left-wing party in those states.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Do you think that the FDP is getting smaller because the CDU is becoming almost like a new FDP? I read that, in recente years, the CDU has been becoming more free marketeer and less Christian.

While you could say that the CDU has become "less Christian", it certainly isn't more free-market now. The bottomline is, the CDU is not the reason for the FDP's decline. The FDP itself is.

Under Guido Westerwelle, the FDP dropped almost any of its platform planks except for tax cuts, effectively turning it into a populist anti-tax party. And then they became part of the federal governent and no tax cuts occured. Which rendered the party's existence redunant in they eyes of its voters.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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Generational changes, yes, but I would not call them challenges. Linke is still getting good results with those, born in the eighties and nineties who were politically socialized in the years of the total disruption of economy and society that where the nineties and 2000/02, then came the Hartz reforms, that aren't that well for young people struggling in an environment of structural unemployment. As the LINKE staff is getting younger, they also get more greenish, less structurally conservative, more 'hipster urban' to some extent, and GDR nostalgia has never played a large roll in the official party platform. This switch can be seen. The newly-directly-elected Juliane Nagel from the south of Leipzig is an antifascist and antiracist activist from parts of the town entrenched in 'left-wing alternative culture', whereas the old guard types were not able to win direct seats.

Organised labour is also friendly to the Linke in the East (well, they are the main left wing party). I think, one has to abstract from the common knowledge cliche that LINKE voters are all disgruntled ex-Stasi retirees. There aren't many people left who were in some charge until 1989 and play a role in the party, by now (There is a list regarding to their Bundestag faction somewhere in this or the election 2013 thread). Today the seventies 'new left' sectarian types that undeservingly benefited from the PDS/WASG merger and came into positions on Lafontaine's coattails seem to be a bigger problem for the prospects of a red-red-green government.

[njwes]

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As the LINKE staff is getting younger, they also get more greenish, less structurally conservative, more 'hipster urban' to some extent, and GDR nostalgia has never played a large roll in the official party platform. This switch can be seen. The newly-directly-elected Juliane Nagel from the south of Leipzig is an antifascist and antiracist activist from parts of the town entrenched in 'left-wing alternative culture', whereas the old guard types were not able to win direct seats.

Interesting, do you think this trend could improve LINKE's performance in west Germany, to the detriment of GRÜNE?

[Yeahsayyeah]

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I was actually talking about the east, esp. Saxony, where the left is breaking into this urban, youngish leftish milieus that reshape their appearance. In the west, parts of this milieus are already in their column and shape their apperance.

But if their is some equalisation between the results in east and west it would still be the Left dwindling in the east and the greens rising a bit for demographical reasons.

[Beezer]

Last poll ahead of this weekend's state elections in Brandenburg and Thuringia:

BB:



TH:

[Tender Branson]

Time for my predictions then:

Brandenburg

31.7% SPD
23.6% CDU
19.7% Left
10.5% AfD
  5.3% Greens
  2.5% FDP
  2.4% NPD
  1.5% FW
  1.3% Pirates
  1.5% Others

Turnout: 58%

Thüringen

34.3% CDU
25.6% Left
15.2% SPD
  9.1% AfD
  5.2% Greens
  4.1% NPD
  2.4% FDP
  1.8% FW
  1.4% Pirates
  0.9% Others

Turnout: 56%

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to some journalists, "Berlin" (i.e. federal politicans) expects a PM Ramelow. If NPD does not and GREENS do come into parliament (probable), a (thin) left majority were given.

Yes, that's also the reason why the federal CDU has started a "omg, we must prevent a communist minister-president for Thuringia, you must vote CDU!" campaign.

Btw, if I'm not mistaken, this could be then the first time in the history of the Federal Republic that we have two non-CDU/CSU/SPD minister-presidents at the same time (Kretschmann from the Greens in BW, and Ramelow in Thuringia).

[Franzl]

I really hope red-red-green does happen. I dislike the idea of Linke being in charge just as much as the next reasonable person, but it's really time for it to happen. There needs to be a clear left and right.

[Tender Branson]

Voting underway in Brandenburg and Thüringen.

The next PM of Thüringen ?

Bodo Ramelow (Left Party, with the fitting Commie-trenchcoat)

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Thüringen until 12:00 was 20% (30% with postal ballots).

That is about the same as 5 years ago.

Final turnout then was 56%.

[Tender Branson]

According to some journalists, "Berlin" (i.e. federal politicans) expects a PM Ramelow. If NPD does not and GREENS do come into parliament (probable), a (thin) left majority were given.

Yes, that's also the reason why the federal CDU has started a "omg, we must prevent a communist minister-president for Thuringia, you must vote CDU!" campaign.

If their campaign works, I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong CDU-showing today ...

[Franzl]

I'd vote Green in Thüringen today. Probably CDU in Brandenburg.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Voting underway in Brandenburg and Thüringen.

The next PM of Thüringen ?

Bodo Ramelow (Left Party, with the fitting Commie-trenchcoat)

Owl pictures!!

[jeron]

Turnout in Thüringen until 12:00 was 20% (30% with postal ballots).

That is about the same as 5 years ago.

Final turnout then was 56%.

It was 18% last time. There are no exact numbers for Brandenburg, but turnout seems to be low there. At 14:00 turnout was 23.7% in Potsdam compared to 38.8% during the bundestag elections last year.

[Tender Branson]

14:00 turnout:

Brandenburg: 22.4% (2009: 36.3%, held together with the federal elections)

Thüringen: 30.0% (2009: 34.5%)

...

The drop-off in Brandenburg is disgusting, they are heading for 50-55% turnout.

[Tender Branson]

16:00 turnout numbers point to a final turnout of 55-60% in Thüringen (roughly unchanged compared with 2009) and ca. 50-55% in Brandenburg (a decline of 12-17% compared with 2009).

[Tender Branson]

ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

[Franzl]

ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

Ah thanks!

I've been trying for several minutes to get a livestream and unfortunately, from Poland, it's not the easiest task.

That works though.

[Tender Branson]

ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

Ah thanks!

I've been trying for several minutes to get a livestream and unfortunately, from Poland, it's not the easiest task.

That works though.

No problem ...

Btw: What are you doing in Poland ?

[Franzl]

ARD election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/44

ZDF election coverage starts:

http://en.iphone-tv.eu/stream/de/19

1st projection for both states in 15 minutes !

Ah thanks!

I've been trying for several minutes to get a livestream and unfortunately, from Poland, it's not the easiest task.

That works though.

No problem ...

Btw: What are you doing in Poland ?

Auslandssemester

[Tender Branson]

ZDF is showing some stuff from the Thüringen exit poll and in this, both the CDU-Gov. and the Left-leader aren't doing all too hot.

More voters prefer a CDU/SPD coalition than a left-wing Left/SPD/Green one (which is actually opposed by a majority of voters).

[Franzl]

Hoping the respectable turnout in Thüringen means the NPD doesn't surprise us...

[Franzl]

CDU-SPD "grand coalition" with a majority of only 1 seat in Thüringen. Red-Red-Green 1 seat short of a majority. Well this is going to be chaos.