German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.

[Beezer]

The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html

Both countries have vastly different electorates and electoral systems so I doubt an American can really bring a lot to the table besides "do more social media stuff." Or maybe I'm just misinterpreting his role as campaign manager...

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

so basically the instant someone founded a new party to capitalise on the failure of the fdp, it started its resurgence. poor new liberals.

[solarstorm]

So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

No, the FDP is simply proof that a party just needs to obtrude itself upon the media, and they'll see a boost in the polls, no matter how content-free their program or incompetent their top candidates are...

Btw, you post brings back good memories ...

[Beezer]

FDP @ 5%!

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[sirius3100]

Let me add my prediction:

45% SPD
18% CDU
13% Greens
8% Left
6% AFD
5% FDP
2% Liberals
1% Pirates
2% Others

Turnout: 51%

[Tender Branson]

A final FGW/ZDF poll was released for Hamburg, so I need to update my prediction:

46.0% SPD (-2.5%)
18.0% CDU (-4.0%)
12.0% Greens (+1.0%)
  8.5% Left (+2.0%)
  5.5% FDP (-1.0%)
  5.5% AfD (+5.5%)
  4.5% Others

Turnout: 55% (-2%)

[Franzl]

Here's to hoping the FDP and AFD land at exactly 4.99%.

[Beezer]

Will be interesting to see if AfD once again fares better than they do in the polls...given this is a western state, could there be more of a shy Tory effect than what we saw in the 3 eastern state elections last year?

[jaichind]

Since it seems likely that AfD will cross 5% since it will likely under-poll.  I guess the make or break for SPD to form a majority government on its on is if FDP can make it past 5%.  I am hoping that it will pass 5% and make a somewhat of a comeback.

[Tender Branson]

State election in Hamburg today.

For the first time ever, 16 and 17-year olds will be allowed to vote as well.

Polls close @ 6pm local time.

[sirius3100]

According to NDR (http://www.ndr.de/info/Letzter-Trend-vor-der-Wahl-in-Hamburg,audio233088.html; audio only) a last (unpublished) poll by Infratest dimap shows a downward trend for the AFD and an upward trend for FDP. So the AFD might miss the required 5%.

[Tender Branson]

If there's a last minute "Copenhagen-effect", it probably helps CDU and AfD the most.

But since the CDU polled only 17-19% anymore, an "effect" would probably mean 20%+ or even 21% to be measurable, and ca. 6% for the AfD.

[Tender Branson]

Hamburg - 11am turnout:

2015: 24.2%
2011: 25.7%

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

my prediction:

spd 46%
cdu 19%
grüne 13%
linke 7%
afd 5% (above)
fdp 5% (below)
others 5%

[solarstorm]

State election in Hamburg today.

For the first time ever, 16 and 17-year olds will be allowed to vote as well.

Polls close @ 6pm local time.

And for the first time the Hamburgers elect their representatives for a legislative session of 5 years.

PS: Is "Hamburger" the right term?

[solarstorm]

My prediction:

SPD: 45%
CDU: 18%
AfD: 10% 😭
Greens: 10%
Left: 8%
FDP: > 5% 😭 😭 😭

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

SPD: 45%
CDU: 18%
AfD: 10% 😭
Greens: 10%
Left: 8%
FDP: > 5% 😭 😭 😭

Nope.

Hamburg ≠ East Germany

[Beezer]

This is the birthplace of the Schill-Party though... (not that I think the AfD will come anywhere close to 10%).

[Tender Branson]

This is the birthplace of the Schill-Party though... (not that I think the AfD will come anywhere close to 10%).

That's correct, but I don't see the AfD repeating the Schill result there right after the 9/11 attacks.

The Schill Party got 19% just 2 weeks after the 9/11 attacks and underpolled by 5%.

The AfD polls only 4-6% right now and if we assume a similar %-wise underpolling relative to their actual polling, they will not get more than 7-8% today, even when factoring in the Copenhagen terror attacks.

[solarstorm]

So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.

Here is, btw, the "delicate" video Beezer was adverting to ...

[Tender Branson]

So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.

Here is, btw, the "delicate" video Beezer was adverting to ...

I'm tempted to do a "hot or not, or just hot enough for the FDP to get 5%+" poll on those legs.

[solarstorm]

I'm tempted to do a "hot or not, or just hot enough for the FDP to get 5%+" poll on those legs.

And I'm tempted to make a GIF out of that.
But I'm sure you mods would rate it as inappropriate.

[jaichind]

Any link to results as they come in?

[Beezer]

Turnout @ 2pm: 38.5% (2011: 43.2%).

http://www.hamburg.de/buergerschaftswahl/4450380/wahlbeteiligung/