German Elections & Politics

[rob in cal]

   Yeah, I would think that none of the parties in the Bundestag would like to see new elections, since the AFD have a very good chance of taking seats, and the FDP somewhat, and none of the major parties currently in the Bundestag would want the AFD to get in.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The AfD has hit 10,5% in the latest INSA/YouGov poll on wahlrecht.de, overtaking the Greens and the Left!

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23,5%
AfD: 10,5%
Grünen: 10,0%
DL: 10,0%
FDP: 5,0%
Others: 6%

The boss of INSA is also an AfD advisor and they get their data from the YouGov online panel. So let us take this with as much salt as possible, until it is confirmed by other pollsters.

https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html

For instance, Forsa, which is the only other post-Paris poll out, yet has only an 1-point bump for the Afd, from 7 to 8 per cent.

[Yeahsayyeah]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

1. It is constitutionally possible, but a bit iffy, as the president is allowed to appoint the candidate with the most votes for chancellor, after they have been voting for two weeks, even if he has no absolute majority, but he does not have to. So a minority government needs the de facto approvement of the president to come in place.

2. The biggest German political topos is probably "muh stability, unlike evil Weimar", so the reputation of the model "minority government" isn't that high and it has not been tried as it wasn't necessary, since 1945 on the federal level. There have been some minority governments on state level, but they have had either interim character (like NRW 2010-2012), or have been quasi-coalitions with the junior partner not having ministerial posts (e.g. "Magdeburg model").

[Beezer]

The boss of INSA is also an AfD advisor and they get their data from the YouGov online panel. So let us take this with as much salt as possible, until it is confirmed by other pollsters.

https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html

For instance, Forsa, which is the only other post-Paris poll out, yet has only an 1-point bump for the Afd, from 7 to 8 per cent.

And Forsa chairman Güllner, who's quite vocal in his criticism of the AfD, is a member of the SPD. Which no one really cares about. I also think that piece is rather weak. It starts off by saying that INSA's polls "had already placed the AfD in the Bundestag even though that eventually of course wasn't the case." Wow, what a take down. INSA saw the AfD at 5%, it wound up winning 4.7%.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Forsa has it's own flaws, for instance wild swings for the headlines, and regular UNDERPOLLING of the SPD, which is quite funny, given Güllner's party mempership.

Of course, the writers of this peace seam to know nothing about the concept of margin of error. But for the moment, INSA is the outlier, and personal reasons and questionable polling methods may be the reasons for it. Just to put cherrypicked polls in context.

[Yeahsayyeah]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One thing is, that measures have to be taken that they at least do not starve "in the camps in Syria's neighbouring states", when there are no possibilities of subsistence besides help from outside.

The other thing, what "securing the border" means in this context. Just to send them away is just relocating the problem, obviously and just leading to millions of gipsies. By the way, what a "safe country" is, seems to be subject to sprains of definitions, for instance if one considers the situation of Roma in the Balkan countries, although I get the argument to concentrate on groups that need more help, at the moment, like Syrians. But if one uses this argument, like the Merkel government, one should not contradict it, with new proposed measurements against Syrian refugees, almost every day, as they do now.

[Yeahsayyeah]

In a funny move, Germany's most important public broadcaster, ARD, has decided that Xavier Naidoo is supposed to represent Germany at the next Eurovision song contest.

Naidoo, who first became famous for his Christianity-based soul pop, has outed himself during the last two years (first at the so called "peace picket movement", than at Pegida and the likes) as follower of the "Reichsbürger" movement, that claims, that the Federal republic is not the legitimate government of Germany as the Reich never ceased to exist, and other conspiracy theories, besides homophobia, mysogny and the likes - all those things, that will make him a well respected representative of this country. ;-)

[rob in cal]

   Has Die Linke Partei forged a clear policy on the migrant issue?  I would guess that the party leadership would be in favor of a more open borders policy, but could imagine that much of their electorate might not be so in favor of it.  Also, it might be tough for seasoned leftists to be on the same side of an issue as the elites, and the business elites especially.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The Left as a party has a clear "Let's help the refugees" stance, at least the party leadership has. Red-red-green in Thuringia has a little bit more of an pragmatic edge, but still clearly on the pro side. Left base members and voters, especially in the East, is a more blurred picture, but most opponents either stay at the closet or loosen their ties to the Left, at the moment.

[Beezer]

Bit of an altercation at the CSU party conference today. Merkel with her regular "we can do it" shtick (muted applause only) which then led to Seehofer attacking her while she was standing next to him. Afterwards Mutti left the stage w/o waving to the crowd.

[Beezer]

Berlin state election poll:

[Yeahsayyeah]

Now, two other pollsters have (Infratest, GMS) have basically confirmed the AfD upward trend. So Infratest and Forsa have them both up one percentage point on a weekly basis (8 respectively 9 per cent). GMS has them at 9 per cent (+4 up on a monthly basis, just like infratest in their Berlin poll).

[Beezer]

If looks could kill...

[Beezer]

Forsa strikes again, sees CDU jump from 36 to 39 percent in a single week. Supposed to be taken with a grain of salt I guess. http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[Tender Branson]

A new poll shows every 2nd German now wants Merkel to retire after this term is over in 2017.

47% of those polled disapprove of Merkel's handling of the migrant crisis, just 40% approve.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/umfrage-48-prozent-gegen-weitere-amtszeit-merkels-a-1065082.html

[palandio]

In a referendum in Hamburg 51.6% has voted against applying for the 2024 Olympic Summer Games. Another electoral defeat for big sports organizations and big sports events after Oslo and Munich.
Link: http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen/wahlen-in-hamburg/volksentscheide/2015/

[Tender Branson]

AfD at 10% in the new Infratest dimap poll:

[Beezer]

Pollster says that the vast majority of new AfD voters come from the CDU:

[Tender Branson]

Sachsen-Anhalt state election (March 13) poll by INSA:

35.0% CDU (+2.5)
23.0% Left (-1.0)
15.5% SPD (-6.0)
13.5% AfD (+13.5)
  6.0% Greens (-1.0)
  3.0% FDP (-1.0)
  4.0% Others (-7.0)

Majorities for CDU-SPD & CDU-AfD, but not for Left-SPD-Greens.

[DavidB.]

The migrant crisis truly came as a blessing for AfD...

[Tender Branson]

New Rheinland-Pfalz state election (in March) poll (by Infratest dimap for SWR):

[FredLindq]

Schwarz-Grüne i Rheinland?!

[Tender Branson]

Schwarz-Grüne i Rheinland?!

They have 48% right now compared with 48% for the other parties, so it's unclear.

But the coming state elections in March will all be interesting (Red-Green having no majority anymore in RP, and neither does the Green-Red coalition in Baden-Württemberg).

The AfD will gain across the board, maybe getting 10% or more in the 2 south-western states and 15-20% in the eastern Sachsen-Anhalt.

[Sozialliberal]

Yesterday, Sigmar Gabriel was re-elected as SPD chairman. He received 74.3 % of the delegate vote, making it the second-worst result for an SPD chairman since 1946. Only Oskar Lafontaine received a lower share of votes in 1995, when he challenged the incumbent Rudolf Scharping. Since no one ran against Gabriel, the result is an even greater embarrassment for him.

So why did more than a quarter of the delegates vote against him? Well, there's his staunch support for the free-trade agreements TTIP and CETA, his championship of data retention and his remarks about not ruling out a temporary Grexit. He also irritated many follow SPD members when he engaged in a dialogue with supporters of the anti-Islamic movement Pegida.

Sigmar Gabriel's results in SPD chair elections, sorted by year:
2009: 94.2 %
2011: 91.6 %
2013: 83.6 %
2015: 74.3 %

Worst election results for SPD chairmen since 1946:
62.6 % (Oskar Lafontaine, 1995)
74.3 % (Sigmar Gabriel, 2015)
76.0 % (Gerhard Schröder, April 1999)
79.4 % (Rudolf Scharping, June 1993)
80.8 % (Gerhard Schröder, 2003)

Best election results for SPD chairmen since 1946:
99.7 % (Kurt Schumacher, 1947)
99.7 % (Kurt Schumacher, 1948)
99.4 % (Willy Brandt, 1966)
99.4 % (Matthias Platzeck, 2005)
98.8 % (Hans-Jochen Vogel, 1988)

Source of the election results: stern.de

[Sozialliberal]

Hitler's "Mein Kampf" to be republished in January 2016 due to copyright expiration

In the European Union, a work is protected under copyright up to 70 years after the author's death. The copyright expires on 1 January of the following year. Because Adolf Hitler died on 30 April 1945, the copyrights of his works will expire on 1 January 2016. That means that anyone in the European Union will be able to legally publish Hitler's works without having to ask for permission.

The copyright history of "Mein Kampf" is quite interesting: Hitler had been registered as a resident of Munich, Bavaria until his death. Since Bavaria was part of the American occupation zone, the American Military Government seized Hitler's property (including his intellectual property). It was planned that the respective regional states confiscate the property of people who are responsible for the Nazi crimes. Each of the suspects had to be brought to trial. Hitler was found guilty in 1948 and his property was confiscated by the Free State of Bavaria. As a result, the Free State of Bavaria, represented by the Bavarian Ministry of Finance, became the copyright holder of "Mein Kampf".

The Bavarian Ministry of Finance always refused a republication of "Mein Kampf" and brought lawsuits against people or companies that published "Mein Kampf" in Germany or abroad. However, the book could still be published legally in English-speaking countries because the company "Random House" acquired the publishing rights for that area in the 1930s. With the advent of the Internet era, the prohibition on the publication of "Mein Kampf" has become ineffective. Anyone in Germany can download it.

The 2016 edition will be published by the Institut für Zeitgeschichte ("Institute for Contemporary History"). This institute is financed by the Federal Republic of Germany and seven regional states (including Bavaria). Commentaries by historians and about 3,700 footnotes will be added to the 781-page original so that the whole edition will contain roughly 2,000 pages in two volumes. The production of the edition started in 2009.

Bavaria temporarily supported the project from April 2012 on but withdrew in December 2013. The Bavarian Ministry of Finance holds the opinion that the spread of "Mein Kampf" would still be illegal in Germany after the copyright expiration because the book is anticonstitutional propaganda and incitement to hatred. The republication remains controversial. The assembly of the justice ministers of the regional states left it open whether they will prohibit the 2016 edition by the Institut für Zeitgeschichte.

My personal opinion is that it would be very stupid to prohibit the Institut für Zeitgeschichte edition. I'm shocked by the excessive prohibition mentality of some of my fellow citizens. Why not inform the public with this annotated edition?