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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655468 times)
Lotuslander
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« Reply #1150 on: March 13, 2016, 01:37:46 PM »

If this, hypothetically speaking, was the final result in SA, I can't see how a willing coalition could be formed.

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DavidB.
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« Reply #1151 on: March 13, 2016, 01:39:02 PM »

CDU, SPD and the Greens would have a majority of seats, apparently.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1152 on: March 13, 2016, 01:39:47 PM »

Sachsen-Anhalt, actual count, 1007/2494 precincts in:



AfD gets up to 30% in the rural areas, and 15-20% in Magdeburg.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1153 on: March 13, 2016, 01:44:22 PM »

AfD does extremely well in the Southern part of Sachsen-Anhalt, near Sachsen (getting 30-40% in the cities there):

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DavidB.
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« Reply #1154 on: March 13, 2016, 01:49:12 PM »

Where do you get that from, Tender?
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1155 on: March 13, 2016, 01:49:17 PM »

What did the exit polls have for RLP in terms of vote transfers.  On paper it seems like Green->AfD but that seems unlikely and it is much more likely it was Green->SPD and SPD->AfD.

Exactly what I was thinking. It would be hard to believe that there are many Green -> AfD voters (maybe a few pure protest voters who don't think much about ideologies).
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jaichind
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« Reply #1156 on: March 13, 2016, 02:00:44 PM »


Does not Pforzheim have an unusual number of unemployed and refugees? Seems like a good combination for the AfD vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1157 on: March 13, 2016, 02:05:15 PM »

I suppose the exit polls may have fallen victim to a "shy AfD" effect.

Definitely.

Which is funny, because in Austria's state elections last year the "exit polls" overestimated the FPÖ by about 5% in Vienna and 2% in Upper Austria.

Looking at the exit polls and the projected results it seems that the "Shy AfD" voter is someone that tells the exit pollster that he/she will vote CDU but really voted for AfD.
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Hifly
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« Reply #1158 on: March 13, 2016, 02:12:18 PM »

The SPD have lost their only district in BW (Mannheim I) to AfD.
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palandio
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« Reply #1159 on: March 13, 2016, 02:13:55 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2016, 02:17:12 PM by palandio »


Does not Pforzheim have an unusual number of unemployed and refugees? Seems like a good combination for the AfD vote.
Pforzheim has a high percentage of ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe, too. [Edit: Typo]
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1160 on: March 13, 2016, 02:20:05 PM »

    Some  new developments in German political history today.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU wins seats in three landtags at the same time.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU is the second biggest in a German landtag.  Huge victory for political diversity today.  
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1161 on: March 13, 2016, 02:23:55 PM »

BaWü has the weirdest state-level politics right now...
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DL
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« Reply #1162 on: March 13, 2016, 02:25:57 PM »

Seems to me that AfD poses the same sort of problem that Linke poses for the SPD. Are we moving towards an Austrian style situation in Germany where the only possible government is going to be never-ending "grand coalitions" between the CDU and SPD??
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Beezer
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« Reply #1163 on: March 13, 2016, 02:26:42 PM »

   Some  new developments in German political history today.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU wins seats in three landtags at the same time.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU is the second biggest in a German landtag.  Huge victory for political diversity today.  

+ first time that the SPD comes in fourth in statewide elections (I assume).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1164 on: March 13, 2016, 02:30:28 PM »

Would suggest that its kind of a bit early in the day to drawn grand predictions of the future.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1165 on: March 13, 2016, 02:32:57 PM »

    SA is even more interesting with all the other wasted votes going to the NPD.  The final combined votes going for parties to the right of the CDU is going to be very high.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1166 on: March 13, 2016, 02:34:55 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2016, 02:39:01 PM by DavidB. »

Seems to me that AfD poses the same sort of problem that Linke poses for the SPD. Are we moving towards an Austrian style situation in Germany where the only possible government is going to be never-ending "grand coalitions" between the CDU and SPD??
Yes, and the situation in Germany is "worse" (in the sense that moderate hero centrist coalitions will be more inevitable), because the FPÖ is clearly more coalitionable than AfD. Also, the presence of Die Linke in the German party system, which is also rather uncoalitionable, means that the basis for a potential non-AfD coalition is smaller than the basis for a potential non-FPÖ coalition in Austria.

Eventually the CDU will have to move to the right in order to prevent more losses, but it might already be too late for them to push AfD away entirely, and by moving to the right (a process which we have seen in many countries already) it increases the potential for the "unthinkable" (actually not so unthinkable in the long run) to happen: government cooperation with AfD. It obviously depends on the circumstances, but this is the trajectory we have seen in so many places already, and I would not be surprise if one day this will become reality in Germany too.
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palandio
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« Reply #1167 on: March 13, 2016, 02:35:26 PM »

The Greens actually lost 0.1% in their absolute stronghold of Stuttgart I. Green gains and CDU losses are bigger in the districts that are close to the average, resulting in close Green wins in many districts.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #1168 on: March 13, 2016, 02:36:04 PM »

this is like weimar without a left. fck everything.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1169 on: March 13, 2016, 02:46:41 PM »

According to this results i see the CDU/CSU at ca. 30%
nationwide.

German federal elections are most definitely not applied state elections so you can't really do that.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1170 on: March 13, 2016, 02:49:13 PM »

  I would argue that on the existential issues of immigration  and the  ethinic de-Germanization of Germany the forces in favor of that , which I would argue are on the left, are doing quite well, if one looks at the long term trend.  Today certainly amounts to a reset of sorts, but its not as if the AFD and its allies has some new majority.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1171 on: March 13, 2016, 03:14:43 PM »

Somewhere Bernd Lucke is shedding a tear or two...

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DavidB.
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« Reply #1172 on: March 13, 2016, 03:15:12 PM »

Somewhere Bernd Lucke is shedding a tear or two...


Did ALFA even contest? Lmao
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jaichind
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« Reply #1173 on: March 13, 2016, 03:19:20 PM »

I think ALFA contested by was down there at around 1%
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1174 on: March 13, 2016, 03:23:45 PM »

   I wonder if the extent of the AFD victories and CDU losses will impact Merkel.  Its not as if these losses were unexpected, though the size is a bit bigger than expected.  
   Concerning what I term ethnic de-Germanization, I'm referring to the situation where in many German cities, the % of schoolchildren whose parents or grandparents are from what is termed a "migration background" is quite high and growing higher.  
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