German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

I wonder if these results will make Frauke Petry more well known outside of Germany at the level of how well Marine Le Pen is known outside France.

[rob in cal]

    Also, the fate of the Greens is intriguing.  1st place in BW, barely passing the 5% threshold in RP and SA.

[palandio]

[...]
   Concerning what I term ethnic de-Germanization, I'm referring to the situation where in many German cities, the % of schoolchildren whose parents or grandparents are from what is termed a "migration background" is quite high and growing higher.  

That's right, but these "migration background" numbers are somehow inflated. Does it count as ethnic de-Germanization when children have an Austrian parent or a half-Italian parent or a Transsylvanian Saxon parent? It's only natural that the % of children from a "migration background" is growing higher with his definition. (And yes, I do know that Muslims in Germany on average have higher birthrates, but this is only part of the picture.)

[DavidB.]

AfD keeps climbing in ST (24.4% now, wow) and BaWü (15.1%). FDP now under the threshold in ST (4.8%).

[palandio]

Most important net voter migrations in Baden-Württemberg (preliminary estimates according to ARD infratest dimap exit polls, categories being CDU, Greens, SPD, FDP, Left, AfD, others, none):

207k from none to AfD
188k from CDU to AfD
160k from SPD to Greens
151k from others to AfD
133k from none to Greens
109k from CDU to Greens
88k from SPD to AfD
86k from CDU to FDP
68k from Greens to AfD
61k from SPD to none.

[palandio]

Rheinland-Pfalz:

93k from Greens to SPD
77k from none to AfD
66k from none to SPD
65k from none to CDU
46k from CDU to AfD
43k from others to AfD
34k from SPD to AfD
22k from none to FDP
21k from Greens to CDU.

[palandio]

Sachsen-Anhalt:

104k from none to AfD
52k from others to AfD
42k from none to CDU
38k from CDU to AfD
33k from none to others
29k from Left to AfD
22k from SPD to CDU
21k from SPD to AfD.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I mean, this looks very bad (or good, if you're inclined that way) but isn't really indicative of future elections. Remember the Pirate phenomena? Remember when people started to confidently assume the Green surge would last?

[Beezer]

Of course some of the AfD's support may - or will - dissipate if the migrant crisis disappears from the headlines. I'd argue though that what sets its rise apart from the Pirate Party surge is that the AfD fills a genuine void within the party system, as illustrated by the success of similar parties across Europe. There are plenty of voters who feel that they lack a political home and the AfD may provide them with just that. Now the question is how other parties will respond, whether the AfD can overcome infighting that has been relegated to the backpages as the migrant crisis has taken over the headlines and whether it can broaden its appeal beyond the bread and butter issue of immigration.

[DavidB.]

I mean, this looks very bad (or good, if you're inclined that way) but isn't really indicative of future elections. Remember the Pirate phenomena? Remember when people started to confidently assume the Green surge would last?

I don't agree. The Pirate phenomenon wasn't a pan-European thing, at least not nearly in the way radical right-wing phenomenon has been over the last two decades. Germany was an anomaly for the Pirate surge, yet it was an anomaly for not having a strong radical right-wing party. That has now changed. Of course that does not necessarily say anything about the future, but if you look at the rest of Western Europe, radical right-wing parties are popular basically everywhere. Germany has the exact same fertile soil for such parties to emerge and be successful, it just took the refugee crisis for AfD to really break through the "ceiling of shame" regarding Germany's past. I don't know if AfD will last, but I think the radical right, as a political force, will remain important in Germany, just as I'm not confident that the Dutch PVV will last yet I know the radical right will stay. I don't see any evidence in Europe to think otherwise.

Besides, given the result in BaWü one could hardly say the Green surge did not last there...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well this is depressing.

[DavidB.]

In BaWü, both Greens+CDU and Greens+SPD+FDP have a majority. Might be good for the CDU to stay out of govt for a while and let the Greens and the SPD include the FDP.

[jaichind]

In BaWü, both Greens+CDU and Greens+SPD+FDP have a majority. Might be good for the CDU to stay out of govt for a while and let the Greens and the SPD include the FDP.

CDU-SPD-FDP will also work too.  In fact I think this what FDP prefers.

[DavidB.]

In BaWü, both Greens+CDU and Greens+SPD+FDP have a majority. Might be good for the CDU to stay out of govt for a while and let the Greens and the SPD include the FDP.

CDU-SPD-FDP will also work too.  In fact I think this what FDP prefers.

Yes, but it's obviously not going to happen given the victory of the Greens + the approval ratings of Kretschmann + the CDU's and SPD's defeat. The Greens will lead the next coalition, that seems inevitable. It's the question whether they will govern with the CDU or with the SPD and the FDP.

[RodPresident]

Looks that SA is set for Malawi coalition. But if Greens by someway get out, things can get interesting. Can AfD and Die Linke work together?

[DavidB.]

Can AfD and Die Linke work together?

Not in 3,000 years.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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AfD mixes economic liberalism (real meaning, not the American one) and welfare cuts with social conservatism and xenophobia, so its literally the total opposite of what is in the Linke's party platform.

[DavidB.]

Apart from their political programs it would just be inconceivable in general. Die Linke is the party for the activist far left, these people despise AfD and its voters. On the other hand, many AfD voters see Die Linke people as dirty commies.

The thing on which AfD and Die Linke do agree, though, is that they are both Putinversteher.

[RodPresident]

But East Germany is a very different thing of West Germany.

[Beezer]

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AfD mixes economic liberalism (real meaning, not the American one) and welfare cuts with social conservatism and xenophobia, so its literally the total opposite of what is in the Linke's party platform.

That's the pre-breakup AfD you're talking about though. Right now the AfD has virtually nothing to say on economic topics aside from their opposition to TTIP.

[DavidB.]

But East Germany is a very different thing of West Germany.

Even in the East, the fact that there is some overlap in electorate does not mean the majority of the electorate would be okay with such cooperation. It is not going to happen -- not now, and not in the future.

[DavidB.]

That's the pre-breakup AfD you're talking about though. Right now the AfD has virtually nothing to say on economic topics aside from their opposition to TTIP.

I already had the impression they had left their economically right-wing program at Lucke's doormat, together with all his stuff. Sad. AfD seems to have become a FN-FPÖ crossover. Especially its geopolitical turn is worrisome (though electorally smart).

[rob in cal]

   Why did the Greens collapse so bad in RP?

[Famous Mortimer]

Two grand coalitions replace two Red-Green governments. A Red-Green government becomes a Black-Red-Green government. This was actually not that horrible of a night for Merkel.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

   Why did the Greens collapse so bad in RP?

likely tactical voting because it was obvious the real question is whether spd or cdu leads the grand coälition