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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655320 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #1375 on: September 03, 2016, 09:14:06 AM »

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern  it seems, just like other Eastern Germany landers, AfD is picking up support not just from NPD but also Linke as the anti-establishment party.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1376 on: September 03, 2016, 09:16:38 AM »

Thanks for your great posts, Sozialliberal, and for replying to my post on AfD. If you're interested, we can discuss this by PM in order to prevent this thread from being derailed (but I also understand if you don't really care Tongue).
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windjammer
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« Reply #1377 on: September 03, 2016, 09:24:38 AM »

My prediction for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election tomorrow:

26.4% SPD (-9.2)
25.3% AfD (+25.3)
20.7% CDU (-2.3)
12.9% Left (-5.5)
  5.6% Greens (-3.1)
  3.1% FDP (+0.3)
  1.9% NPD (-4.1)
  4.1% Others (-1.4)

Turnout: 57.6% (+6.1)
I guess one day that will happen that Afd+Linke=majority of seats ?
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #1378 on: September 03, 2016, 10:05:49 AM »

My prediction for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election tomorrow:

26.4% SPD (-9.2)
25.3% AfD (+25.3)
20.7% CDU (-2.3)
12.9% Left (-5.5)
  5.6% Greens (-3.1)
  3.1% FDP (+0.3)
  1.9% NPD (-4.1)
  4.1% Others (-1.4)

Turnout: 57.6% (+6.1)
I guess one day that will happen that Afd+Linke=majority of seats ?

Unless AfD goes the way of the Republicans, this is rather likely in (eastern) state elections. Was a close shave in Saxony-Anhalt (41 seats out of 87, with the Greens just barely clearing the threshold at 5.2%. Would have been 44 out of 87 had they stayed under 5.)
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #1379 on: September 03, 2016, 03:10:32 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2016, 03:16:59 PM by Sozialliberal »

Thanks for your great posts, Sozialliberal, and for replying to my post on AfD. If you're interested, we can discuss this by PM in order to prevent this thread from being derailed (but I also understand if you don't really care Tongue).
Thanks, I do my best. Smiley Your posts in the Dutch elections and politics thread are not bad, either. We can discuss this by PM.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1380 on: September 03, 2016, 06:01:26 PM »

Thanks for your great posts, Sozialliberal, and for replying to my post on AfD. If you're interested, we can discuss this by PM in order to prevent this thread from being derailed (but I also understand if you don't really care Tongue).
Thanks, I do my best. Smiley Your posts in the Dutch elections and politics thread are not bad, either. We can discuss this by PM.
I'm curious, Sozialliberal: which party do you belong to in Germany? The FDP?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1381 on: September 04, 2016, 05:15:25 AM »

The state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has started.

A first report about turnout will come at around 3pm.

The weather is rainy, which could be good news for turnout.

Polls close at 6pm.
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #1382 on: September 04, 2016, 06:07:21 AM »

Thanks for your great posts, Sozialliberal, and for replying to my post on AfD. If you're interested, we can discuss this by PM in order to prevent this thread from being derailed (but I also understand if you don't really care Tongue).
Thanks, I do my best. Smiley Your posts in the Dutch elections and politics thread are not bad, either. We can discuss this by PM.
I'm curious, Sozialliberal: which party do you belong to in Germany? The FDP?
That's a good question! Sadly, I think all major parties in Germany are more or less horrible.

If I had been around in the 1970s (I'm 24 now.), I would have been an FDP supporter. In my opinion, the FDP started to become a horrible party in the 1980s when it adopted economic policies that were influenced by Thatcherism/Reaganism.

In the last Bundestag election, I voted for the Pirate Party, thinking they would be able to bring a breath of fresh air to German politics. However, the party collapsed and they're even more naive about the refugee crisis than the Greens. In the next Bundestag election, I'm probably going to vote for the Free Voters. I think they're just the kind of party Germany needs now: down-to-earth, centrist, pragmatic. There's also an important issue that the Free Voters raise, but the FDP does not: Liberty can be threatened by a too powerful state, but it can also be threatened by a too powerful corporation.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1383 on: September 04, 2016, 08:17:06 AM »

Turnout at 2 pm: 32.8% (w/o postal ballots). 2011: 29.8% .
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1384 on: September 04, 2016, 08:20:30 AM »

Turnout at 2 pm: 32.8% (w/o postal ballots). 2011: 29.8% .

Considering more people will vote by postal ballot this year than in 2011, turnout could be up 5-10% altogether at the end of the day.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1385 on: September 04, 2016, 08:39:42 AM »

Requested postal ballots in Schwerin (state capital):

2011:   8,952
2016: 12,431
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/772425636136808448
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1386 on: September 04, 2016, 10:32:40 AM »

Polls close in 25 minutes.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #1387 on: September 04, 2016, 10:55:04 AM »

Some traits (exit poll by ARD): 56 per cent view the economic situation in MVP as "good", 73 per cent approve of the work of prime minister Erwin Sellering. Around three of four say, this election won't affect their personal life.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1388 on: September 04, 2016, 10:57:05 AM »

Some traits (exit poll by ARD): 56 per cent view the economic situation in MVP as "good", 73 per cent approve of the work of prime minister Erwin Sellering. Around three of four say, this election won't affect their personal life.

I just saw this.

Based on this, I would not be surprised if the personal popularity of the SPD-Governor would be enough to keep the SPD ~30%. Lower voter transfers from SPD to AfD could keep the AfD below 25%.

CDU should drop to 20% though.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1389 on: September 04, 2016, 10:57:33 AM »

Any live streams?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1390 on: September 04, 2016, 10:58:30 AM »


http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/ard.html

http://www.live-stream.tv/online/fernsehen/deutsch/zdf.html
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1391 on: September 04, 2016, 10:58:55 AM »

Thank you!
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Beezer
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« Reply #1392 on: September 04, 2016, 11:02:31 AM »

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jaichind
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« Reply #1393 on: September 04, 2016, 11:02:48 AM »

*SPD 30%, CDU 20%, AFD 21.5% IN GERMAN STATE VOTE: ZDF EXIT POLL
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1394 on: September 04, 2016, 11:03:37 AM »

Exit polls (ARD/ZDF):

30% SPD, 21-22% AfD, 19-20% CDU, 12-13% Left, 5% Greens, 3% FDP, 3% NPD, 5% Others
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jaichind
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« Reply #1395 on: September 04, 2016, 11:04:26 AM »

Looks like it is for ARD

SPD    30.5
CDU   19
AfD     21
Linke  12.5
Green   5.0
NPD      3.5
FDP       2.5
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1396 on: September 04, 2016, 11:04:32 AM »

Exit polls underestimated AfD support in last year's state elections, right?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1397 on: September 04, 2016, 11:06:25 AM »

Exit polls underestimated AfD support in last year's state elections, right?

They might gain a bit with the vote count, yes.

But I don't think they'll get more than 23%.

The SPD-Governor was so popular that many potential AfD-voters stuck with voting SPD in the end.
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DL
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« Reply #1398 on: September 04, 2016, 11:16:34 AM »

Having the CDU come in third behind the AfD in Merkel's home state has to be a big blow to her
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Beezer
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« Reply #1399 on: September 04, 2016, 11:16:54 AM »

First projection with actual ballot count...



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