German Elections & Politics

[Sozialliberal]

If neither red-red-green nor black-green had a majority, a thinkable alternative to the grand coalition would be a so-called Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP). That coalition has only been tried out once at state level: from 2009 to 2012 in Saarland. It didn't last a whole legislative period because of disputes within the FDP state party. Needless to say that such a coalition would be the worst nightmare of the more left-wing Greenies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course voters can (and do) change their minds.

[rob in cal]

  In the last Bundestag election had the FDP crossed the 5% threshold wouldn't that have led to a CDU-CSU/FDP coalition?

[Sozialliberal]

 In the last Bundestag election had the FDP crossed the 5% threshold wouldn't that have led to a CDU-CSU/FDP coalition?

Yes, that would have led to a black-yellow coalition. However, it is no secret that Merkel is very fond of black-green. She said that the CDU had been ready to form a black-green coalition already after the 2013 election. The black-green coalition talks after the election were unsuccessful mostly because of the Greens. They had quite a left-wing tax plan back then. Having a left-wing tax plan while ruling out a coalition with The Left makes sense, doesn't it? The Greens eventually decided against a black-green coalition because they would have had to break too many of their election promises. The CSU is generally more sceptical of the Greens than the CDU. Especially now during the refugee crisis, the CSU fears that a black-green coalition would scare too many of its voters away.

While a black-yellow coalition is still a possibility, it's farther away from a majority than red-red-green or black-green according to the polls. So I didn't mention it.

[pilskonzept]

Looks Germany is doomed to be governed by a CDU-SPD "grand coalition" in perpetuity - much like Austria.

Likely for some time.

Can anyone see ANY way in which the CDU can govern without the SPD (or vice-versa) in the foreseeable future?

Sure, with the AfD. Not going to happen under Merkel or the current AfD leadership, obviously.

[DL]

The CSU is generally more sceptical of the Greens than the CDU. Especially now during the refugee crisis, the CSU fears that a black-green coalition would scare too many of its voters away.

Is there any chance of an actual schism between the CDU and CSU whereby the CSU decides to opt out of government altogether and act like a rightwing opposition party?

PS: What colour do people associate with the AfD? so we can start adding them to the red, black, yellow, green, red palette!

[pilskonzept]

Is there any chance of an actual schism between the CDU and CSU whereby the CSU decides to opt out of government altogether and act like a rightwing opposition party?

There has been a chance of that since forever. Is there a chance of them going for it in '17? Hell no.

PS: What colour do people associate with the AfD? so we can start adding them to the red, black, yellow, green, red palette!

Blue. As in FPÖ blue. Sometimes shown as turquoise or purple.

[DL]

What nickname could we give to a "Black/Blue" coalition - a black eye coalition?

[pilskonzept]

What nickname could we give to a "Black/Blue" coalition - a black eye coalition?

Blaues Wunder. The blue part is straight outta Dresden after all.

[Sozialliberal]

The CSU is generally more sceptical of the Greens than the CDU. Especially now during the refugee crisis, the CSU fears that a black-green coalition would scare too many of its voters away.

Is there any chance of an actual schism between the CDU and CSU whereby the CSU decides to opt out of government altogether and act like a rightwing opposition party?

I think that's rather unlikely.

In order to get a better understanding of the matter, let's take a look at history:
When the German nation state was formed, Bavaria was sceptical about joining. You could say that this scepticism towards the rest of Germany, especially towards the "Prussians" in the north, lasts to this day. There's even a small secessionist party in Bavaria that received 2.1% of the vote in the last state election, but secessionism is too radical a position for most Bavarians.

The CSU governed Bavaria without a coalition partner continuously from 1966 to 2008 (that's 42 years!), because it always received the absolute majority of the vote in state elections. The party takes a lot of pride in this fact. They feel like they "own" Bavaria. So it was a huge shock for them when the party lost its absolute majority in 2008, but it could regain it in 2013. If the CSU became a federal party, the CDU would compete in Bavarian elections in return. That would be a disaster for the CSU, because it would lose its absolute majority of the vote again and could even be marginalized.

[Bumaye]

First poll for Berlin since the MV election by Infratest Dimap:

SPD: 21% 
CDU: 19% 
Grüne: 16% 
Linke: 15% 
AfD: 15% 
FDP: 5% 
Others: 9% 

9% for other parties is an astonishingly high number. It could indicate that the Pirates are hovering around 4% which means they could make it back into the parliament. Interestingly enough Martin Delius the leader of the pirates in the parliament today joined Die Linke.
The 9% could also indicate the best result of my party (Die PARTEI) in a state election after 1,9% in Bremen last year.

However building a coalition in Berlin will be fun with 5 medium sized parties. R2G looks the most realistic to me.

[RedPrometheus]

Today are municipal elections in my home state of Lower Saxony. The AfD result will be particularly interesting. They are pushing quite hard with several big events the last couple of days.

You can follow the results here: http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/niedersachsen/kommunalwahl_niedersachsen_2016/Kommunalwahl-in-Niedersachsen-Machen-Sie-Ihr-Kreuz,kommunalwahl582.html

[RedPrometheus]

New INSA poll for Berlin:

CDU: 18%
SPD: 22%
Greens: 18%
FDP: 6%
Left: 14%
AfD: 14%
Others: 8%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

[President Johnson]

New INSA poll for Berlin:

CDU: 18%
SPD: 22%
Greens: 18%
FDP: 6%
Left: 14%
AfD: 14%
Others: 8%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

That will lead into a red-red-green coalition. And another sounding defeat for Merkel. Good! However, hope the SPD will be over 25%.

LOL at the Pirats, they're so done. Not even polled anymore.

[palandio]

Berlin votes on sunday. The incumbent government is a SPD-CDU grand coalition under mayor Michael Müller (SPD). My prediction:

SPD 24.0% (-4.3)
CDU 17.0% (-6.4)
Greens 15.5% (-2.1)
Left 14.2% (+2.5)
Pirates 2.0% (-6.9)
FDP 6.0% (+4.2)
AfD 14.0% (new)
Others 7.3% (-1.0)

Turnout: 66.6% (+6.4).

Most likely coalition: R₂G.

[Bumaye]

Three days until the Berlin election and we are going straight for the worst CDU state election result ever outside of Bremen and Hamburg (18,7% in Brandenburg 1994). The CDU overall is a mess and Henkel is one of the worst candidates they could have chosen.

My prediction:

SPD: 24,2%
Grüne: 17,4%
CDU: 16,5%
Linke: 14,6%
AfD: 13,6%
FDP: 4,7%
Piraten: 3,2%
Die PARTEI: 2,1%  
Sonstige: 3,7%

And then I grab my popcorn and see how the Union (CDU/CSU) completely destroys itself.

Die Linke could maybe get a little boost since Gregor Gysi arguably the most admired member of the party has declared that he will run for the Bundestag again next year.

[Beezer]

Seehofer tells Merkel to implement a cap of 200,000 refugees a year or the CSU won't support her (possible) re-election bid. http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/fluechtlinge-horst-seehofer-droht-angela-merkel-mit-endgueltigem-bruch-a-1112584.html

[DavidB.]

Seehofer tells Merkel to implement a cap of 200,000 refugees a year or the CSU won't support her (possible) re-election bid. http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/fluechtlinge-horst-seehofer-droht-angela-merkel-mit-endgueltigem-bruch-a-1112584.html

How many refugees did Germany take in last year, and how many have they taken in this year? Still seems like an incredibly large number to me.

[rob in cal]

  David, I think its a case of the Overton window effect.

[Bumaye]

How many refugees did Germany take in last year, and how many have they taken in this year? Still seems like an incredibly large number to me.

We first and foremost took in asylum seekers, not refugees. That's a major difference. In 2015 a total of 440.000 asylum cases were decided, among them 53.000 from Albania alone. The thing is just 0,4% of asylum seekers from Albania actually receive refugee status. Kosovo, Serbia and Macedonia which are also among the top 10 countries where the people came from have similar success rates. Russians, Nigerians and Pakistanis are all below 10% as well. On the other hand the Syrians who obviously make up the largest group with 158.000 cases have an acceptance rate of 98,1%, Iraqis and Afghans around 50%. That adds up to a total of 61% of the asylum seekers who are allowed to stay in Germany.

Most numbers say that a total of 1.100.000 asylum seekers arrived in Germany last year. So when all the cases are decided we should be at a number of around 650.000 refugees in 2015. And yes that was a lot and if not for tens of thousands of volunteers helping out to menage the situation all across the country we would have been in trouble.

Now the good news: The numbers are already shrinking drastically. This year so far 222.000 asylum seekers arrived in Germany, we plan with 300.000-350.000 until the end of the year - one third of the amount of the year before. That is manageable for us without much problems. Now begins the hard work for the politics though. Integration, education and keeping an eye on the bad guys among them.

Regarding Seehofer: He can get worked up about his cap of 200.000 all he wants, at the end of the day the Federal Constitutional Court would stop such a limitation a few weeks after it's implemented as they do all the time with stupid ideas of our Bavarian clowns of the CSU. The right of asylum is part of our constitution and not something you can just change how you would like to. Also his party with it's 7% is the smallest one in the parliament, he often forgets it but CDU and SPD don't need him and his party to rule.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Berlin state election tomorrow:

23.1% SPD (-5.2%)
18.3% CDU (-5.0%)
14.9% AfD (+14.9%)
14.6% Greens (-3.0%)
13.2% Left (+1.5%)
  6.2% FDP (+4.4%)
  2.1% Pirates (-6.8%)
  7.6% Others (-0.8%)

Turnout: 66.1% (+5.9%)

[Tender Branson]

Some statistics from the Berlin office of elections:

Number of eligible voters: 2.485.363 (+15.647 compared with the 2011 election)

Number of postal ballots issued: 525.364 (+81.352 compared with the 2011 election)

This, btw, is a new record of postal ballot requests for a state election in Berlin.

21.1% of all eligible voters have requested a postal ballot this year, up from 18% in 2011.

The district of Steglitz-Zehlendorf had the highest share of postal ballot requests with 28.3%, while Marzahn-Hellersdorf had the lowest with 15.9% of eligible voters.

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2016/presse/20160916c.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact before the Berlin state election:

The German statistics office has announced that the German population has grown by 800.000 in the first 8 months to reach 83 million people, a new record high.

So, it's not just asylum seekers that are streaming into Germany - but also regular immigrants who heard Merkel's call and now come in droves.

If this pace continues, Germany's population could swell by more than 1.5% this year or by far over 1 million people.

[Diouf]

Is Michael Müller equally popular to some of the incumbents in recent state elections? I believe that the incumbent party has usually gained a few percentage points compared to the polls in most of these elections.

[Tender Branson]

Is Michael Müller equally popular to some of the incumbents in recent state elections? I believe that the incumbent party has usually gained a few percentage points compared to the polls in most of these elections.

No, he's one with the lowest job approval ratings among all incumbents: