German Elections & Politics
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:51:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 55 56 57 58 59 [60] 61 62 63 64 65 ... 176
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655437 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1475 on: September 17, 2016, 09:34:07 AM »

Wow, in Berlin tomorrow we will most likely have 5 parties in double digits.  I think that has never happened before.
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1476 on: September 17, 2016, 10:07:37 AM »

  Tender, do you have a link to the new immigration numbers?  I'd be interested in seeing where the bulk of non-asylum seekers are coming from, and whether that's also influencing the political debate.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1477 on: September 17, 2016, 10:39:16 AM »

  Tender, do you have a link to the new immigration numbers?  I'd be interested in seeing where the bulk of non-asylum seekers are coming from, and whether that's also influencing the political debate.

The 2016 numbers are only an estimate for Germany as a whole so far.

The migration numbers are only available for 2015 and in German:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/Thematisch/Bevoelkerung/Wanderungen/vorlaeufigeWanderungen5127101157004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

But on page 4 you can find an English description of the tables.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1478 on: September 17, 2016, 10:51:32 AM »

Is Michael Müller equally popular to some of the incumbents in recent state elections? I believe that the incumbent party has usually gained a few percentage points compared to the polls in most of these elections.

No, he's one with the lowest job approval ratings among all incumbents:



Woah Kretschmann. Why is he so popular anyway?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1479 on: September 17, 2016, 12:11:54 PM »

Because he's anything you want him to be baby.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1480 on: September 18, 2016, 02:23:42 AM »

Polls are open for the Berlin state election.

Polls close at 6pm.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1481 on: September 18, 2016, 03:42:31 AM »

A first report about turnout until noon should come at 1:15pm
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1482 on: September 18, 2016, 07:50:25 AM »

25.1% at noon, compared to 19.1% 5 years ago.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-berlin/berlin-deutlich-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung-zeichnet-sich-ab-14441081.html
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1483 on: September 18, 2016, 08:27:17 AM »


Adjusted for postal ballots, turnout was 9% higher at noon compared with 2011.
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1484 on: September 18, 2016, 08:49:17 AM »

Similar increase then compared to other state elections this year.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1485 on: September 18, 2016, 09:36:49 AM »

Meanwhile, AfD leader Frauke Petry's car was set on fire in Leipzig last night. AfD says that the violence against party members has come to resemble terror. According to the party, some politicians are engaging in a smear campaign and "no longer use democratic arguments" when talking negatively about AfD.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1486 on: September 18, 2016, 10:23:36 AM »


Sounds like bad news for CDU and good news for AfD and I guses Linke
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1487 on: September 18, 2016, 10:24:29 AM »

   Would be amazing if CDU finishes 5th in the Berlin vote. Not likely, but possibly in some districts?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1488 on: September 18, 2016, 11:02:33 AM »

SPD 23 CDU 18 AfD 12.5
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1489 on: September 18, 2016, 11:02:35 AM »

Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1490 on: September 18, 2016, 11:04:24 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2016, 12:00:59 PM by Sozialliberal »

infratest dimap prognosis:


Meanwhile, AfD leader Frauke Petry's car was set on fire in Leipzig last night. AfD says that the violence against party members has come to resemble terror. According to the party, some politicians are engaging in a smear campaign and "no longer use democratic arguments" when talking negatively about AfD.
As much as I despise the AfD, that's just sad.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1491 on: September 18, 2016, 11:13:27 AM »

Meanwhile, AfD leader Frauke Petry's car was set on fire in Leipzig last night. AfD says that the violence against party members has come to resemble terror. According to the party, some politicians are engaging in a smear campaign and "no longer use democratic arguments" when talking negatively about AfD.

I've never understood the wisdom of this sort of thing. It's a great way to make people sympathize with AfD and make your own side look unreasonable. I mean, obviously this is probably some nut who did it and not someone at CDU/SPD HQ, but still.
Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1492 on: September 18, 2016, 11:17:51 AM »

Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1493 on: September 18, 2016, 11:20:09 AM »

I don't really like AfD either (anymore), but I vividly recall what happened to Pim Fortuyn, and given the current toxic political climate and German extremists' propensity to use violence (on both sides), Germany has much more potential for a "Fortuyn" case than even the Netherlands in 2002 had. It is not something you want to happen.
Logged
Simfan34
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1494 on: September 18, 2016, 11:24:25 AM »

Is Michael Müller equally popular to some of the incumbents in recent state elections? I believe that the incumbent party has usually gained a few percentage points compared to the polls in most of these elections.

No, he's one with the lowest job approval ratings among all incumbents:



Woah Kretschmann. Why is he so popular anyway?

What about Seehofer?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1495 on: September 18, 2016, 11:25:46 AM »

My prediction for the Berlin state election tomorrow:

23.1% SPD (-5.2%)
18.3% CDU (-5.0%)
14.9% AfD (+14.9%)
14.6% Greens (-3.0%)
13.2% Left (+1.5%)
 6.2% FDP (+4.4%)
 2.1% Pirates (-6.8%)
 7.6% Others (-0.8%)

Turnout: 66.1% (+5.9%)

...

Hmm, I nailed SPD, CDU, FDP and Pirates and probably turnout.

Underestimated Greens and Left (probably because some ex-Pirate voters switched back to the Greens) and overestimated AfD (not as many Left voters voting for them like in MVP).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1496 on: September 18, 2016, 11:27:27 AM »

Is Michael Müller equally popular to some of the incumbents in recent state elections? I believe that the incumbent party has usually gained a few percentage points compared to the polls in most of these elections.

No, he's one with the lowest job approval ratings among all incumbents:



Woah Kretschmann. Why is he so popular anyway?

What about Seehofer?

Wasn't polled yet.
Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1497 on: September 18, 2016, 11:40:38 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2016, 12:00:15 PM by Sozialliberal »

More charts!

Gains and losses


Seats


Prognosis for former West Berlin


Prognosis for former East Berlin
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,223
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1498 on: September 18, 2016, 11:50:26 AM »

So will there be a revival of SPD-Linke coalition, but this time with Grüne also?
Logged
Bumaye
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 317


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1499 on: September 18, 2016, 11:52:16 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2016, 11:56:51 AM by Bumaye »



My prediction:

SPD: 24,2%
Grüne: 17,4%
CDU: 16,5%
Linke: 14,6%
AfD: 13,6%
FDP: 4,7%
Piraten: 3,2%
Die PARTEI: 2,1%  
Sonstige: 3,7


I expected the Greens to benefit a little more from the Pirates then the Left but if you put the left wing coalition together I was spot on (56%). The AfD was even weaker than I thought (god bless) which benefited CDU and FDP.

Now I'm waiting for the district level results. Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg is always interesting. Cheesy  
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 55 56 57 58 59 [60] 61 62 63 64 65 ... 176  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.099 seconds with 12 queries.