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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655403 times)
Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1825 on: February 06, 2017, 10:10:48 AM »

By the end of February the SPD will be at 75%.

Jealous?! I sure am!
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mvd10
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« Reply #1826 on: February 06, 2017, 10:12:13 AM »

I don't like Schulz and ideologically I'm way closer to Merkel, but please kick her out. Please.
I totally understand what you mean, but it's not as if Schulz is going to be better. Reminds me of being glad Timmermans left as our Foreign Minister and then realizing Koenders is actually worse.

Chancellor Jens Spahn is totally worth 8 years of Red-Red-Green though.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1827 on: February 06, 2017, 10:13:39 AM »

A close race should be good news for turnout.

Probably around 75% this year.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #1828 on: February 06, 2017, 12:18:01 PM »

I find this polls hard to swallow, Schultz really had this effect that SPD is now polling 10% more than a month ago? I somehow doubt it
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DL
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« Reply #1829 on: February 06, 2017, 01:19:56 PM »

Keep in mind though that historically the SPD has always polled at least in the 30s in German elections so the pre-Schulz low 20s polling numbers were themselves the anomaly and what we are seeing now is very much a reversion to the historic pattern
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Zanas
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« Reply #1830 on: February 06, 2017, 01:36:57 PM »

Keep in mind though that historically the SPD has always polled at least in the 30s in German elections so the pre-Schulz low 20s polling numbers were themselves the anomaly and what we are seeing now is very much a reversion to the historic pattern
Exactly, it's all just differential turnout (well, differential poll-response anyway) and enthusiasm gap. Let's see how those votes actually turn ou in the polls in a few months though...
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #1831 on: February 06, 2017, 05:23:10 PM »

I find this polls hard to swallow, Schultz really had this effect that SPD is now polling 10% more than a month ago? I somehow doubt it

Gabriel was part of the Merkel administration.  Schulz isn't.  There's nothing strange about this.  It would be great to see a watermelon coalition under Schulz with SPC, the Greens and Die Linke (this couldn't possibly happen with Gabriel).
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ag
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« Reply #1832 on: February 06, 2017, 11:07:25 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2017, 11:09:05 PM by ag »

I find this polls hard to swallow, Schultz really had this effect that SPD is now polling 10% more than a month ago? I somehow doubt it

Gabriel was part of the Merkel administration.  Schulz isn't.  There's nothing strange about this.  It would be great to see a watermelon coalition under Schulz with SPC, the Greens and Die Linke (this couldn't possibly happen with Gabriel).

Why, or why would anybody want the Left in a coalition? What is such a coalition supposed to achieve? Joining Trump and Putin in partitioning Europe? But, then, why would somebody like Schulz and the Greens want it?

What is the objective of inviting one of the tow illiberal German parties into the government?

Note: none of Merkel supporters are suggesting it would be great to get AfD in. That, by itself, is a good reason to supprot Merkel.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #1833 on: February 06, 2017, 11:41:16 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2017, 11:43:40 PM by watermelon »

I find this polls hard to swallow, Schultz really had this effect that SPD is now polling 10% more than a month ago? I somehow doubt it

Gabriel was part of the Merkel administration.  Schulz isn't.  There's nothing strange about this.  It would be great to see a watermelon coalition under Schulz with SPC, the Greens and Die Linke (this couldn't possibly happen with Gabriel).

Why, or why would anybody want the Left in a coalition? What is such a coalition supposed to achieve? Joining Trump and Putin in partitioning Europe? But, then, why would somebody like Schulz and the Greens want it?

What is the objective of inviting one of the tow illiberal German parties into the government?

Note: none of Merkel supporters are suggesting it would be great to get AfD in. That, by itself, is a good reason to supprot Merkel.

Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1834 on: February 07, 2017, 12:57:48 AM »

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1835 on: February 07, 2017, 05:54:51 AM »
« Edited: February 07, 2017, 06:07:05 AM by Beezer »

Keep in mind though that historically the SPD has always polled at least in the 30s in German elections so the pre-Schulz low 20s polling numbers were themselves the anomaly and what we are seeing now is very much a reversion to the historic pattern

Who cares about history though when your last 2 election results look like this:

2013: 25.7
2009: 23.0

Moreover the last time the SPD polled consistently in the low 30s (i.e. 32% or more) was about a decade ago:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/2006.htm
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/2007.htm

If I had to wager some money on whether the SPD was going to get either 20 or 30% of the vote, I'd definitely be more comfortable placing a bet on the former. The SPD's problem (and I suppose this applies to most socdems) has been that it's not really the first choice for any particular segment of society anymore. Left-leaning people with a university degree and a home in the suburbs can opt for the Greens or more recently the Merkel-CDU as well. People in their 20s who dream of smashing globalization are also more at home in the Left Party or the Greens while the working class/precariat prefers the Left or now the AfD. All of those people could see themselves as SPD-voters as well I suppose but ultimately the SPD's message has become so diluted that it's not surprising the party has recently come in third or even fourth in state elections. Maybe a fresh face like Schulz can provide a bit of a bounce in the short term but the broader trend behind the SPD's demise will take more than a eurocrat to reverse - if that's even possible in this day and age.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1836 on: February 07, 2017, 07:01:11 AM »

I have the impression that a lot of white working-class people still vote SPD, just look at NRW. The SPD need to thank G-d (though not a very SPD thing to do...) that Die Linke are still pretty toxic in the West; with a more capable party to their left, their bottom would have fallen out already. You only have to look westward to see how low a social democratic party in Western Europe can go. Over 50% of WWC vote PVV or SP here; even in their "good" 2012 result (24.8%) the PvdA's base consisted mainly of middle-class public servants who would nowadays perhaps vote for the Greens in Germany.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1837 on: February 07, 2017, 11:03:02 AM »

Worth noting that Schulz can credibly distance himself from some of the more electorally toxic elements of the Schröder era, and that stuff has been a big drag in recent years. Still, it's early days (i.e. all Schulz has done so far is establish himself as a potential serious challenger) so it's important not to let speculation and prediction get out of hand, but nevertheless it is always an error to underestimate the strength of the SPD 'brand', even if maybe it hasn't been particularly well looked after in recent years. 
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #1838 on: February 07, 2017, 11:57:34 AM »

Here's a fun Martin Schultz fact: he loves the late Eric Hobsbawm. Schultz said "Eric Hobsbawm was a man of extraordinary qualities. His books have greatly inspired and influenced my political and historical thoughts."

Here's a photo of him reading the Age of Extremes.



He's winning me over!
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palandio
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« Reply #1839 on: February 07, 2017, 06:20:08 PM »

@ David: Voter statistics for recent federal elections by type of employment, union membership and confession:
https://www.bundestag.de/blob/272928/f5acde8f297f7dd8ce148d79a3de1b1b/kapitel_01_11_stimmabgabe_nach_beruf_und_konfession__zweitstimme_-pdf-data.pdf
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ag
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« Reply #1840 on: February 07, 2017, 10:20:14 PM »


Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.

I do not that much care about your conventional right-left. I have no problem with the Greens in Germany whatsoever. But die Linke is a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas.
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ag
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« Reply #1841 on: February 07, 2017, 10:21:06 PM »

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1842 on: February 07, 2017, 11:59:25 PM »

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Being a FDP/Democratic voter wouldn't make much sense...
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mvd10
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« Reply #1843 on: February 08, 2017, 01:07:17 AM »

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Being a FDP/Democratic voter wouldn't make much sense...

Well, I don't believe in the ''Democrats would be far-right neoliberal fascists in Europe'' sh**t, but I imagine there people in Germany who want to see their taxes slashed, but not to the extent that social spending has to be reduced to US levels. And the FDP is fairly liberal on social issues.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #1844 on: February 08, 2017, 03:19:52 AM »


Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.

I do not that much care about your conventional right-left. I have no problem with the Greens in Germany whatsoever. But die Linke is a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas.

The CDU is also a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas from a liberal perspective...
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Bumaye
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« Reply #1845 on: February 08, 2017, 03:33:51 AM »


Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.

I do not that much care about your conventional right-left. I have no problem with the Greens in Germany whatsoever. But die Linke is a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas.
 
  
The only ideas that are drastically different from everybody else is that they wanna leave NATO and categorically rule out interventions in other countries. They are less harsh towards Russia to be fair but still critical of Putin.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1846 on: February 08, 2017, 04:24:35 AM »

New Forsa poll is out

CDU/CSU 34% (-1)
SPD 31% (+5)
AfD 10% (-1)
Greens 8% (+-0)
Left 8% (-1)
FDP 5% (-1)
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ag
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« Reply #1847 on: February 08, 2017, 05:32:11 PM »


Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.

I do not that much care about your conventional right-left. I have no problem with the Greens in Germany whatsoever. But die Linke is a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas.

The CDU is also a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas from a liberal perspective...

We have a different definition of "liberalism" I guess Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #1848 on: February 08, 2017, 05:32:59 PM »

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Being a FDP/Democratic voter wouldn't make much sense...

Why not? Would seem very ideologically consistent to me.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1849 on: February 08, 2017, 05:55:50 PM »

this question is nonsense cause over here you can try to balance your preferences out among a set of different parties.

in the US you need to find your ONE TRUE PREFERENCE.

fdp voters would be split between more social liberal and economical liberal voters.
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