German Elections & Politics

[Vosem]

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Variety of reasons. I live in Ohio, whose local Republican Party is currently governing the state and doing a very good job of it. There's also a few wedge issues (such as my continued strong pro-gun and strong pro-Zionist stances) that are keeping me on board as well. I don't think "economic liberalism", which tended to be (simplified) my answer for many years, really works, since it no longer seems very clear that the Republican Party is more economically liberal than the Democratic one (in fact, it hasn't really been clear in policy since the mid-'90s or so, but until the Trump candidacy at least the Republican Party tended to be more economically liberal in rhetoric).

So, for the moment I am likely to vote Democratic (for most candidates; Booker or Gillibrand I could become quite enthused about) or third-party (if the Democrats nominate Sanders or Warren or Merkley or some-such) presidentially in 2020, and very likely Democratic for the House in 2018-2020 (not that it would matter since I live in a Democratic vote-sink and Joyce Beatty is popular with a large crossover vote anyway, but still). I'd probably cast Democratic Senate votes in 2018-2020 in many states, but Rob Portman and whichever of Josh Mandel or Pat Tiberi get nominated in 2018 are good-quality Ohio Republicans and will get my vote; for our state legislature and most row positions (except maybe Secretary of State; the officer in charge of voting rights should probably be a Democrat during the Trump Administration; this'll depend on who's nominated as well) I'll probably continue voting Republican as well for the immediate future. There you have it.

[Bumaye]

Just a daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes.  
  
New Poll from GMS (Compared to 5th January):  
CDU: 33% (-3%)  
SPD: 29% (+9%)  
AfD: 11% (-2%)  
Grüne: 9% (-1%)  
Linke: 8% (-2%)  
FDP: 6% (-1%)  
  
The deficit of R2G against the right wing parties has shrunk from 16 points to 4 points in a month according to this.  
  
Also it's really interesting to take a look at Bavaria. GMS polled them separately as well and in Bavaria the SPD only has gained +3% compared to +9% nationwide. That leads to the conclusion that their gains must be really high in other places which should be a great sign for the upcoming state elections in Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and Nordrhein-Westfalen. R2G was behind by 4-5% in all of these states in the latest polls.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.

I do not that much care about your conventional right-left. I have no problem with the Greens in Germany whatsoever. But die Linke is a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas.

The CDU is also a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas from a liberal perspective...

We have a different definition of "liberalism" I guess

I don't think limiting the rights of immigrants to have dual citizenship, proposing to ban the burqa, historically bashing Turkish immigrants, and, in general, treating immigrants with utter contempt is remotely congruent with liberalism as a contemporary ideology. I suppose that it's pretty congruent with what liberalism meant when it was actually a well-defined ideology that influenced the world but  that sort of liberalism is disgusting, elitist and dead. More generally, the CDU is not a liberal party. Characterizing it as one is very bizarre. I suppose it can be argued that aspects of its traditions stem from the DVP and the old liberalism of German Protestantism but it's fundamentally a conservative party. It's changed quite a bit over the past few decades but its roots continue to define the party and those roots are decidedly illiberal.

[President Johnson]

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Being a FDP/Democratic voter wouldn't make much sense...

Why not? Would seem very ideologically consistent to me.

FDP is more comparable to the Libertarians in the US. FDP is against the Patriot Act, pro gay-marriage and ended the draft. Honestly, I think that most Germans would be Democrats in the US, even Merkel.

[DL]

 Honestly, I think that most Germans would be Democrats in the US, even Merkel.

What do you mean "even Merkel"? The CDU has always been a very middle of the road party that is pretty much the same as that of a mainstream Democrat in the US. The last time I would have described the CDU as being at all synonymous with the GOP would have been in 1976 when Gerald Ford was the candidate or maybe possibly under Bush Sr. and Merkel is seen as being very much on the leftwing of her own party.

The only people in Germany who would be Republicans in the US would be supporters of the NPD and maybe some AfD people. Everyone else would be a Democrat.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The only people in Germany who would be Republicans in the US would be supporters of the NPD and maybe some AfD people. Everyone else would be a Democrat.

I would assume the NPD is way too leftist economically and fiscally to be a good match for the Republican Party.

However, I'd say that members of the AfD are the spot-on equivalent to the mainstream GOP we know today. Especially, since some of the economic and fiscal ideas they've discussed make look the FDP like Marxists.

The average voter of the AfD is a different matter entirely, since they've often defected from the Left Party (or SPD) and either don't know or don't care about the AfD's economic policies. They care only about the AfD being anti-establishment and anti-immigrant.

[Intell]

The only people in Germany who would be Republicans in the US would be supporters of the NPD and maybe some AfD people. Everyone else would be a Democrat.

I would assume the NPD is way too leftist economically and fiscally to be a good match for the Republican Party.

However, I'd say that members of the AfD are the spot-on equivalent to the mainstream GOP we know today. Especially, since some of the economic and fiscal ideas they've discussed make look the FDP like Marxists.

The average voter of the AfD is a different matter entirely, since they've often defected from the Left Party (or SPD) and either don't know or don't care about the AfD's economic policies. They care only about the AfD being anti-establishment and anti-immigrant.

Isn't it most Afd voters defected from the CDU, then with a drop off SPD. The ammount of Linkie voters which switch to Afd, is quite little, compared to those two parties.

[ApatheticAustrian]

only an useful point if you think, the average republican voter today cares about balanced budgets.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The only people in Germany who would be Republicans in the US would be supporters of the NPD and maybe some AfD people. Everyone else would be a Democrat.

I would assume the NPD is way too leftist economically and fiscally to be a good match for the Republican Party.

However, I'd say that members of the AfD are the spot-on equivalent to the mainstream GOP we know today. Especially, since some of the economic and fiscal ideas they've discussed make look the FDP like Marxists.

The average voter of the AfD is a different matter entirely, since they've often defected from the Left Party (or SPD) and either don't know or don't care about the AfD's economic policies. They care only about the AfD being anti-establishment and anti-immigrant.

Isn't it most Afd voters defected from the CDU, then with a drop off SPD. The ammount of Linkie voters which switch to Afd, is quite little, compared to those two parties.

I was a bit imprecise, actually.

First of all, the largest block of voters the AfD draws from are the people who didn't previously vote at all or who had cast their vote for one of the minor parties (not CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, or FDP).

When it comes to the major parties, different patterns have developed in West Germany and East Germany. In the East, the AfD mostly draws from the CDU and the Left Party, in the West it's the CDU and the SPD. I think we can attribute that to the differing nature of the Left in the West and East. Left voters in the West are usually more liberal when it comes to non-economic/fiscal issues (like immigration), while Left voters in the East are more conservative/populist.

Here are the top two major parties the AfD drew voters from in state elections since 2014. The AfD's election results are usually stronger in the East:

East Germany

Saxony 2014: 1. CDU, 2. FDP, 3. Left
Brandenburg 2014: 1. Left, 2. CDU
Thuringia 2014: 1. CDU, 2. Left
Saxony-Anhalt 2016: 1. CDU, 2. Left
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2016: 1. CDU, 2. Left

West Germany

Hamburg 2015: 1. CDU, 2. SPD
Bremen 2015: 1. CDU, 2. SPD/Greens (tie)
Baden-Württemberg 2016: 1. CDU, 2. SPD
Rhineland-Palatinate 2016: 1. CDU, 2. SPD

Berlin 2016: 1. CDU, 2. SPD, 3. Left/Pirates (tie)


As you can see, Brandenburg is the only state where the Left actually managed to "beat" the CDU. Otherwise they usually come second in the Eastern states.

Pirates were third in Berlin, because they had received a lot of protest votes in 2011 who apparently now moved to the AfD. This despite the fact that the two parties' platforms couldn't be further apart from each other, aside from a general anti-establishment stance. This means that these voters don't really care about issues, I guess.


Source: Post-election voter transition analyses by Infratest dimap

[ag]

There is another obvious reason for Left being more common as a source for AfD votes in the East: there are not too many Left voters in the West to begin with. Except in the Saarland and the city-states they are nearly invisible in the West.

It is (the few Western exceptions notwithstanding) a socially conservative populist illiberal Eastern party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There is another obvious reason for Left being more common as a source for AfD votes in the East: there are not too many Left voters in the West to begin with. Except in the Saarland and the city-states they are nearly invisible in the West.

It is (the few Western exceptions notwithstanding) a socially conservative populist illiberal Eastern party.

Yes, to some extent.

The AfD still managed to capture more total votes from former Left voters than they did from former FDP or Green voters in Rhineland-Palatinate, and more total votes from former Left voters than they did from former FDP voters in Baden-Würtemberg, despite the fact that the Left is generally weaker in these states than either FDP or Greens.

[Famous Mortimer]

There is another obvious reason for Left being more common as a source for AfD votes in the East: there are not too many Left voters in the West to begin with. Except in the Saarland and the city-states they are nearly invisible in the West.

It is (the few Western exceptions notwithstanding) a socially conservative populist illiberal Eastern party.

It's voters are socially conservative illiberal populists. It's members and leaders not so much.

[Intell]

The fact that some of Left's voters, are persuaded to vote for AfD, based upon their social conservatism/populist rhetoric, does not mean a vast majority of Linkie Voters (In the East, and especially in the west), are actually leftist.

[Bumaye]

Just another daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes. 
 
New poll from yesterday by "Trend Research Hamburg": 
 
SPD 30% 
CDU 30% 
AfD 13% 
Linke 9% 
Grüne 7% 
FDP 6%   
 
Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not. By the way in the last two weeks the SPD got around 5.000 new members, ten times as much as normal.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There is another obvious reason for Left being more common as a source for AfD votes in the East: there are not too many Left voters in the West to begin with. Except in the Saarland and the city-states they are nearly invisible in the West.

It is (the few Western exceptions notwithstanding) a socially conservative populist illiberal Eastern party.

It's voters are socially conservative illiberal populists. It's members and leaders not so much.

That's true for progressives like Katja Kipping. Not so much for the populist matrimony of Oskar Lafontaine and Sarah Wagenknecht.

[Intell]

There is another obvious reason for Left being more common as a source for AfD votes in the East: there are not too many Left voters in the West to begin with. Except in the Saarland and the city-states they are nearly invisible in the West.

It is (the few Western exceptions notwithstanding) a socially conservative populist illiberal Eastern party.

It's voters are socially conservative illiberal populists. It's members and leaders not so much.

That's true for progressives like Katja Kipping. Not so much for the populist matrimony of Oskar Lafontaine and Sarah Wagenknecht.

I still have yet to see how Lafontaine is socially conservative and illiberal (he criticises some immigrants, and the immigration rate, at the most).

I still have yet to see how Wagenknecht is socially conservative (she criticise  the extremes of the refugee policy, and doesn't want refugees that are criminals, that's all).

 I know the blarite/centrist/social liberal and not anything left, likes to use populist as an insult, but it really isn't.

[DL]

It's been a long time since we have seen a poll from Allensbach. What are they waiting for?.

[JA]

Just another daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes.  
  
New poll from yesterday by "Trend Research Hamburg":  
  
SPD 30%  
CDU 30%  
AfD 13%  
Linke 9%  
Grüne 7%  
FDP 6%  
  
Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not. By the way in the last two weeks the SPD got around 5.000 new members, ten times as much as normal.

At this pace the next Chancellor will be Schulz, unless something highly unexpected occurs. The question then becomes: who will be the SPD's coalition partner(s)?

Also, I'm curious if anyone knows how Schulz would intend to handle President Trump. Frau Merkel has charted a middle course between confrontation and embrace, thereby helping solidify Germany's potentially new role as leader of the liberal, democratic world. How will Schulz maintain or alter that direction of German foreign policy?

[mvd10]

Just another daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes.  
  
New poll from yesterday by "Trend Research Hamburg":  
  
SPD 30%  
CDU 30%  
AfD 13%  
Linke 9%  
Grüne 7%  
FDP 6%  
  
Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not. By the way in the last two weeks the SPD got around 5.000 new members, ten times as much as normal.

At this pace the next Chancellor will be Schulz, unless something highly unexpected occurs. The question then becomes: who will be the SPD's coalition partner(s)?

Also, I'm curious if anyone knows how Schulz would intend to handle President Trump. Frau Merkel has charted a middle course between confrontation and embrace, thereby helping solidify Germany's potentially new role as leader of the liberal, democratic world. How will Schulz maintain or alter that direction of German foreign policy?

The elections are in september so a lot can happen. And this boost might only be temporary. In France Fillon was polling at 28-30% in the weeks after his primary victory, in late january (before Penelopegate) he was back at 23-25% so it's possible the SPD will be back at 25% in a couple of weeks.

I've heard that Gabriel wanted a SPD-Greens-FDP coalition, so that's probably also Schulz's preferred coalition but I doubt it will have a majority. I suppose it's going to be another grand coalition or maybe red-red-green.

[Middle-aged Europe]

At this pace the next Chancellor will be Schulz, unless something highly unexpected occurs. The question then becomes: who will be the SPD's coalition partner(s)?

Let's wait and see. Schulz has been Chancellor-candidate for two and a half weeks now, and the SPD has received a poll bump accordingly. The election is in seven months though. A lot can happen in that time. Today, I saw the first article on Schulz' "shady deals" when he was president of the European Parliament. And the CDU is also starting to get into attack mode against Schulz.

Also, I'm curious if anyone knows how Schulz would intend to handle President Trump. Frau Merkel has charted a middle course between confrontation and embrace, thereby helping solidify Germany's potentially new role as leader of the liberal, democratic world. How will Schulz maintain or alter that direction of German foreign policy?

In an interview last week, Martin Schulz called Donald Trump a "high-grade threat to democracy", his election campaign an "infamousness", his Muslim travel ban "unbearable", and his foreign policy "gambling with the security of the Western world". He also said Merkel shouldn't remain silent to Trump's "unacceptable actions".

[Representative simossad]

No one has reported about the presidential election held tomorrow. That's understandable, because that procedure will be fairly boring.

The election takes place in the Federal Assembly. This institution comes together very 5 years and its only purpose is to elect the president. This year, 1260 members will come together, all 630 members of the Bundestag and another 630 members elected by the 16 state parliaments. State parties often nominate celebreties to be part of the Bundesversammlung, for example Joachim Löw, coach of the national soccer team (nominated by the Greens Baden-Württemberg), Carolin Kebekus, comedian (nominated by the Greens North Rhine-Westphalia), Martin Sonneborn, MEP of the satire party THE PARTY (nominated by the Pirate Party North Rhine-Westphalia), and Natalia Wörner, actress and partner of the Minister of Justice, Heiko Maas, (nominated by the SPD Baden-Württemberg).

These are the factions in the Bundesversammlung:



Union - 42.8%
SPD - 30.6%
Greens - 11.6%
Left - 7.8%
FDP - 2.9%
AfD - 2.8%
Pirates - 0.9%
Free Voters - 0.8%
SSW - 0.1%
BVB - 0.1%
unaffiliated - 0.1%

Parties in red are local parties, the Free Voters are a strong party in Bavaria, the SSW is the regional party of the Danish minority in Schleswig-Holstein, and the BVB have a few seats in the Brandenburg Landtag. The unaffiliated member is Erika Steinbach, former CDU-representative.

The candidate who is most likely to win in Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD), former foreign minister. He is one of the most popular politicians in Germany and has approval ratings between 60%-70%, being the most populat German politican besides Wolfgang Schäuble. He is supported by the SPD, the Union, the FDP and by most members of the Greens, so he will easily win in the first round by a large majority. Other candidates are Christoph Butterwegge, nominated by the Left, Albrecht Glaser, nominated by the AfD, Alexander Holdt, a judge who was part in a really famous court show on German Television, nominated by the Free Voters, and the last one, Engelbert Sonneborn, father of Martin Sonneborn, nominated by the Pirate Party and THE PARTY.

Nothing spectecular. The only interesting thing to watch will be the margins, because Merkel was originally opposed to Steinmeier as president. We'll see.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I've heard a couple of Bundestag backbenchers and state-level politicians from the Greens endorse Left Party candidate Christoph Butterwege recently. So he might get slightly more votes than expected. The Greens could actually go 65-35 for Steinmeier-Butterwege or something like that.

[Bumaye]

Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not.

 
 
He is. Compared to a week ago: 
 
CDU 33% (nc) 
SPD 32% (+3%) 
AfD 10% (-1%) 
Linke 8% (nc) 
Grüne 7% (-1%) 
FDP 6% (nc) 
 
Ignoring the Schulz train for a moment, if I was a member of the Green party I would get worried right now. On 19th November they were at 12%, ever since they lose bit by bit. Then again they are not the only ones falling, the AfD lost a quarter of their voters since Christmas. 
 

It's been a long time since we have seen a poll from Allensbach. What are they waiting for?.

 
 
Allensbach publishes only one poll per month, normally on a Wednesday or Thursday in the later half of the month.

[DL]

If the polls continue to show such a close race between the CDU and SPD I wonder if could unleash a lot of strategic voting by supporters of the small parties. Everyone knows that the only possible government that can emerge is another grand coalition - and the only open question is who will be the chancellor. If the SPD beats the CDU by so much as one seat - Schulz becomes chancellor and ditto if the CDU wins by one seat...ergo we could get a lot of last minute shifting of Green and Linke voters to the SPD as a means of ensuring that Schulz replaces Merkel as chancellor. On the other side, you could get some FDP voters going CDU to make sure the CDU is the largest party... (AfD voters mostly hate Merkel so much that they don't give a damn whether the next chancellor is her or Schulz)

[Lord Halifax]

If the polls continue to show such a close race between the CDU and SPD I wonder if could unleash a lot of strategic voting by supporters of the small parties. Everyone knows that the only possible government that can emerge is another grand coalition - and the only open question is who will be the chancellor. If the SPD beats the CDU by so much as one seat - Schulz becomes chancellor and ditto if the CDU wins by one seat...ergo we could get a lot of last minute shifting of Green and Linke voters to the SPD as a means of ensuring that Schulz replaces Merkel as chancellor. On the other side, you could get some FDP voters going CDU to make sure the CDU is the largest party... (AfD voters mostly hate Merkel so much that they don't give a damn whether the next chancellor is her or Schulz)

No, that is far from given.