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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655284 times)
Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1975 on: March 09, 2017, 03:31:57 PM »

Ipsos online poll (national, 03/08)

CDU/CSU 33% (+1)
SPD 29% (-1)
AfD 11% (-1)
Left 9% (-1)
Greens 8% (+1)
FDP 6% (+1)

Sorry folks, again Grand coalition only.
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« Reply #1976 on: March 09, 2017, 06:07:25 PM »

Infratest dimap approval ratings

Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU): 65% (+3)
Angela Merkel (CDU): 60% (+5)
Thomas de Maiziere (CDU): 54% (+4)
Martin Schulz (SPD): 52% (-3)
Cem Özdemir (Green): 50% (+1)

Mhmmm..... Schulz honeymoon starting to be over??




Also, AfD voters are ridiculously uniform in their opposition against pretty much everything:

The government's disapproval rating
CDU/CSU voters 31%
Greens 50%
SPD 55%
FDP 57%
Left 70%
AfD 98%

Don't allow Turkish politicians to campaign in Germany
Green voters 53%
Left 68%
SPD 75%
FDP 76%
CDU/CSU 84%
AfD 96%

The government should confront Turkey more determined
Green voters 67%
Left 68%
FDP 69%
SPD 75%
CDU/CSU 77%
AfD 98%
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« Reply #1977 on: March 10, 2017, 04:07:57 AM »

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen national poll (03/10)

CDU/CSU 34% (+-0)
SPD 32% (+2)
AfD 9% (-1)
Left 8% (+1)
Greens 7% (-2)
FDP 5% (-1)

Sorry folks, Grand coalition only.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1978 on: March 10, 2017, 01:39:53 PM »

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen national poll (03/10)

CDU/CSU 34% (+-0)
SPD 32% (+2)
AfD 9% (-1)
Left 8% (+1)
Greens 7% (-2)
FDP 5% (-1)

Sorry folks, Grand coalition only.
If the FDP is just under 5 (which would get rounded  to 5 in the poll) then R2G would have a majority.
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« Reply #1979 on: March 11, 2017, 07:35:05 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2017, 07:38:07 PM by 0% Approval Rating »

New Emnid national poll from today

CDU/CSU 33% (+-0)
SPD 33% (+1)
AfD 8% (-2)
Left 8% (+-0)
Greens 7% (+-0)
FDP 6% (+-0)

Majority for CDU/CSU-SPD and SPD-Left-Greens.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1980 on: March 15, 2017, 07:57:51 AM »
« Edited: March 15, 2017, 08:03:01 AM by Beezer »

SPD with a steep rise in NRW:



Compared with January #s:

SPD +5
CDU -3
Greens -2
FDP +2
Left -1
AfD -1
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windjammer
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« Reply #1981 on: March 15, 2017, 03:55:38 PM »

SPD with a steep rise in NRW:



Compared with January #s:

SPD +5
CDU -3
Greens -2
FDP +2
Left -1
AfD -1
So likely red-green or red-red-green
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« Reply #1982 on: March 15, 2017, 03:56:37 PM »

Both Grune and Linke being on the threshold level could be dicey though.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1983 on: March 15, 2017, 03:57:19 PM »

good starting point for a new social-liberal coalition, imho.
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« Reply #1984 on: March 15, 2017, 04:00:30 PM »

I suppose the question going forward is if the SPD wants a leftist coalition at the federal level. In which case those 6 Bundesrat votes from NRW should probably be kept in the red-green(-red) camp rather than use it as a starting point for a sozialliberale renaissance. Although I suppose a federal traffic light coalition may sound somewhat enticing as well...
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« Reply #1985 on: March 15, 2017, 04:50:58 PM »

I suppose the question going forward is if the SPD wants a leftist coalition at the federal level. In which case those 6 Bundesrat votes from NRW should probably be kept in the red-green(-red) camp rather than use it as a starting point for a sozialliberale renaissance. Although I suppose a federal traffic light coalition may sound somewhat enticing as well...

Have the FDP moved leftwards in exile?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1986 on: March 15, 2017, 04:52:53 PM »

Have the FDP moved leftwards in exile?

in some ways, yes.

party chair lindner is talking a lot more about the danger of "big corporatism" and is promoting their social/cultural values much more.
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« Reply #1987 on: March 15, 2017, 04:55:32 PM »

I'd say while the FDP has become more hipster they didn't become more left-wing.
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« Reply #1988 on: March 15, 2017, 06:35:51 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2017, 02:03:37 PM by Sozialliberal »

I suppose the question going forward is if the SPD wants a leftist coalition at the federal level. In which case those 6 Bundesrat votes from NRW should probably be kept in the red-green(-red) camp rather than use it as a starting point for a sozialliberale renaissance. Although I suppose a federal traffic light coalition may sound somewhat enticing as well...

Both the SPD and the FDP were a lot more left-wing in the 1970s than they are now. So the closest approximation to the social-liberal coalition of that era would be a red-red-yellow coalition. We all know that won't happen in the foreseeable future, though. I kind of miss the FDP of the 70s. (Yeah, okay, it was not free from flaws, either, but no party is.)

Have the FDP moved leftwards in exile?

in some ways, yes.

party chair lindner is talking a lot more about the danger of "big corporatism" and is promoting their social/cultural values much more.

There have been some positive changes in policy under Lindner, but the overall picture disappoints me. He criticizes multinational corporations for their tax evasion, and at the same time, the FDP dismisses any criticism of TTIP and CETA (special courts for investors, and other nasties) as scaremongering. He talks about the importance of formal education for social mobility, and at the same, he's in favour of tuition fees for higher education. I could go on and on.

I'd say while the FDP has become more hipster they didn't become more left-wing.

Exactly. They hired an advertising agency to create a "We're the hip, new, modern party in Germany now!" campaign for them. *pukes*
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« Reply #1989 on: March 16, 2017, 07:38:10 AM »

The first Schleswig-Holstein state election poll since December is out... election is on May 7, concurrently with the French run-off.

SPD 33% (+7)
CDU 27% (-7)
Greens 14% (-1)
FDP 9% (+-0)
AfD 7% (+1)
Left 4% (-1)
SSW 3% (+-0)

This means SPD and Greens could continue their coalition without the SSW's assistance this time.

(I'd attribute the Greens' strong position compared to other recent state polls due to deputy minister-president Robert Habeck, who apparently is the most popular state-level politician in Schleswig-Holstein.)
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« Reply #1990 on: March 16, 2017, 07:48:36 AM »

The first Schleswig-Holstein state election poll since December is out... election is on May 7, concurrently with the French run-off.

SPD 33% (+7)
CDU 27% (-7)
Greens 14% (-1)
FDP 9% (+-0)
AfD 7% (+1)
Left 4% (-1)
SSW 3% (+-0)

This means SPD and Greens could continue their coalition without the SSW's assistance this time.

(I'd attribute the Greens' strong position compared to other recent state polls due to deputy minister-president Robert Habeck, who apparently is the most popular state-level politician in Schleswig-Holstein.)

Which pollster?
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« Reply #1991 on: March 16, 2017, 07:52:10 AM »

The first Schleswig-Holstein state election poll since December is out... election is on May 7, concurrently with the French run-off.

SPD 33% (+7)
CDU 27% (-7)
Greens 14% (-1)
FDP 9% (+-0)
AfD 7% (+1)
Left 4% (-1)
SSW 3% (+-0)

This means SPD and Greens could continue their coalition without the SSW's assistance this time.

(I'd attribute the Greens' strong position compared to other recent state polls due to deputy minister-president Robert Habeck, who apparently is the most popular state-level politician in Schleswig-Holstein.)

Which pollster?

Infratest dimap, both now and back in December.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1992 on: March 16, 2017, 08:19:34 AM »

schulzmentum unbroken.

well, i won't believe it before NRW is done.
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« Reply #1993 on: March 16, 2017, 02:54:20 PM »

New poll for Saarland as well where the election will be held next week. It's compared with the 2012 result. Note: SPD won't form a coalition with Die Linke here, it will be another Grand Coalitions, it's only about who'll lead it. 
 
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windjammer
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« Reply #1994 on: March 16, 2017, 02:56:20 PM »

New poll for Saarland as well where the election will be held next week. It's compared with the 2012 result. Note: SPD won't form a coalition with Die Linke here, it will be another Grand Coalitions, it's only about who'll lead it. 
 

Why no SPD-DieLinke?
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Bumaye
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« Reply #1995 on: March 16, 2017, 03:15:59 PM »

 
 
Linke chairman in Saarland is Oskar Lafontaine who was the SPD leader in the late 90s and then left the party. Until today they hate each others guts.
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« Reply #1996 on: March 18, 2017, 03:26:34 AM »

 
 
Linke chairman in Saarland is Oskar Lafontaine who was the SPD leader in the late 90s and then left the party. Until today they hate each others guts.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Anke Rehlinger seemed to be quite OK with him in a recent interview I saw and I talked with some people from Saarland who said that red-red is a possibility.

I would be quite surprised if there weren't any coalition talks at least.
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« Reply #1997 on: March 18, 2017, 04:50:54 AM »

Red-red-green in its various guises has 34 seats in the Bundesrat (out of 69) right now. They'd be rather stupid if they didn't use the opportunity to get to a majority with Saarland's 3 seats.
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« Reply #1998 on: March 18, 2017, 05:07:17 AM »

Red-red-green in its various guises has 34 seats in the Bundesrat (out of 69) right now. They'd be rather stupid if they didn't use the opportunity to get to a majority with Saarland's 3 seats.

State elections aren't solely about Bundesrat majorities though. Nor should they be IMO.
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« Reply #1999 on: March 18, 2017, 07:57:41 AM »

Why are the left so strong there compared to other western states?
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