German Elections & Politics

[ApatheticAustrian]

would kind of mirror the margin between spd and cdu from the last time and underline how weak green and afd have become.

[Bumaye]

My prediction: 
 
CDU: 35.4% 
SPD: 32.8% 
Linke: 13.1% 
AfD: 6.4% 
Grüne: 4.5% 
FDP: 4.3% 
Others: 3,5% 
 
I believe that the FGW polls were just outliers and that SPD and CDU are actually closer while I think that the CDU will be slightly ahead.  it is a rare occasion that both parties of a Grand Coalition benefit from it but here it seems possible. Saarland is a weak state for the Greens anyway and in their current position I don't think they will make it. FDP will bounce back a little from the 1,2% catastrophe last time but fail to reenter the parliament. The AfD should be slightly below the level that the Pirateparty reached last election.

[Bumaye]

New Emnid poll. SPD +1; Others -1. 49% for R2G. 
 

[Bumaye]

Saarland: At 2PM 32,6% of the voters have cast their ballots. That's a little higher then in 2012 (31,1%) but significantly lower then 2009 (36,7%). In 2012 the full turnout was 61,6%, in 2009 67,6% and in 2004 55,5%. So as it stands the turnout will be somewhere between 62% and 64% which is pretty much the norm in the last 20 years.

[Tender Branson]

Saarland: At 2PM 32,6% of the voters have cast their ballots. That's a little higher then in 2012 (31,1%) but significantly lower then 2009 (36,7%). In 2012 the full turnout was 61,6%, in 2009 67,6% and in 2004 55,5%. So as it stands the turnout will be somewhere between 62% and 64% which is pretty much the norm in the last 20 years.

Do you know if the 2pm figure includes postal ballots or not ?

If there's a higher number of postal voters this year, turnout could be higher ...

[RedPrometheus]

The CDU will definitely celebrate tonight.

[Tender Branson]

The CDU will definitely celebrate tonight.

I would say so too. AKK is a fairly popular governor and the incumbency advantage should lead to a nice victory for the CDU. I don't think the Rehlinger-SPD can pull this out, considering they have a bigger opposition with the Left and the Greens (16% combined) than the CDU has with the FDP and AfD (11%).

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

These are the 2 frontrunners of the SPD (left) and CDU (right), at a demo against the NPD:

[DL]

Why is Saarland a separate state instead of being part of Rhineland-Palatinate? It's so tiny

[Tender Branson]

The ARD election day survey preview indicates an easy win for the CDU.

85% of voters say their personal economic situation is excellent/good, 65% say the same for the state.

76% approve of Governor AKK's job (68% of her SPD-counterpart).

By a 63-21 margin, voters say AKK is the stronger leader than Rehlinger.

[Tender Branson]

18:00 ARD Exit Poll:

41.0% CDU [+5.8]
29.5% SPD [-1.1]
13.0% Left
  6.0% AfD
  3.0% FDP
  4.5% Greens

Turnout 71% (+10%)

[Beezer]

But, but...what about the Schulz Train?

[Bumaye]

18:00 ARD Exit Poll:

41.0% CDU [+5.8]
29.5% SPD [-1.1]
13.0% Left
  6.0% AfD
  3.0% FDP
  4.5% Greens

Turnout 71% (+10%)

 
  
Crazy. The last time the CDU was above 40% in a poll in Saarland was in September 2008 - that is really unexpected. A possible reason I see is that a number of SPD-voters didn't wanted Red-Red and so moved over to the CDU to keep Black-Red going. The smaller parties are all roughly where they were expected. The turnout is lovely. Highest since 1999.

[Tender Branson]

But, but...what about the Schulz Train?

Pretty easy:



(nah ... just a joke, this election was just really local and considering AKK's approval ratings, this was expected.)

[Beezer]

[ApatheticAustrian]

tremendous CDU numbers.

i guess Afd swalloed linke voters.

small losses for Spd and Green.....only hurting the ego of the SPD but existencially for the Green party cause of the 5% threshold which they - and the fdp - could fail to meet.

this derails Lindner's comeback scenario, Schulz's game changer scenario, the general anti-merkel atmosphere and ...is also quite a bad result for the Afd.

only the CDU can celebrate today.

[Tender Branson]

18:00 ARD exit poll:







18:00 ZDF exit poll:

[Beezer]

...is also quite a bad result for the Afd.

Meh, the AfD had been polling at 6% for quite a while there. They will still see this as evidence that they're now the third force in German politics.

[ApatheticAustrian]

...is also quite a bad result for the Afd.

Meh, the AfD had been polling at 6% for quite a while there. They will still see this as evidence that they're now the third force in German politics.

well, maybe the strong "leftish populist" western Linkspartei is a way to decrease AfD numbers after all.

They are atm surely the third force, which says more about the other small parties, imho.

[Bumaye]

only the CDU can celebrate today.

 
  
I agree with that. The rest of the comment though? In a week nobody will talk about this election anymore. In Germany live more Arabs then Saarländers. In the grand scheme of things that election won't be a big deal. I think I wrote it before: Either the SPD lands an unexpected victory or everything will stay the same.  
  
I mean this result maybe isn't great for the SPD but then again if we compare it with the last couple elections it's absolute norm:  
  
2004: 30.8%
2009: 24.5%
2012: 30.6%
2017: 30.0%
 
So with a relatively even result in 2004 in the Saarland they reached 34,2% in the General Election the next year. If the SPD scores that high this year it would be very likely that we have a Godchancellor afterwards. 

[Tender Branson]

First ARD projection (based on already-counted precincts):



First ZDF projection (based on already-counted precincts):

[ApatheticAustrian]

You are surely correct, Bumaye but finding out where all those new CDU voters came from could also be interesting for the elections in NRW and SH.

even a strong candidate sometimes can't win against the zeigeist, as the elections of 2016 have proven.

[Beezer]

...is also quite a bad result for the Afd.

Meh, the AfD had been polling at 6% for quite a while there. They will still see this as evidence that they're now the third force in German politics.

well, maybe the strong "leftish populist" western Linkspartei is a way to decrease AfD numbers after all.

They are atm surely the third force, which says more about the other small parties, imho.

This is Lafontaine's home state after all so I wouldn't read too much into these numbers.

[Beezer]

Red-red-green losing votes. This along with the train wreck in Berlin I guess indicates that Schulz would be wise to not get too cozy with the Greens and Left before election day.

[Tender Branson]

The CDU mobilized more than twice as many non-voters than the SPD ...

Notice that turnout went up 10% to 71%.