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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655234 times)
Beezer
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« Reply #2050 on: March 26, 2017, 11:32:06 AM »

 
  
I agree with that. The rest of the comment though? In a week nobody will talk about this election anymore. In Germany live more Arabs then Saarländers. In the grand scheme of things that election won't be a big deal. I think I wrote it before: Either the SPD lands an unexpected victory or everything will stay the same.  
  
I mean this result maybe isn't great for the SPD but then again if we compare it with the last couple elections it's absolute norm:  
  
2004: 30.8%
2009: 24.5%
2012: 30.6%
2017: 30.0%
 
So with a relatively even result in 2004 in the Saarland they reached 34,2% in the General Election the next year. If the SPD scores that high this year it would be very likely that we have a Godchancellor afterwards. 

If its and buts were candy and nuts...

I don't think we can just compare elections in completely different electoral environments like that. The SPD's natural home in recent years has been 25%. Back in the mid-00s it was closer to 35%. Maybe the Schulz-effect in the polls was similar to the US convention bounce. Ie SPD voters were more eager to take part in polls while Christian Democrats declined to take part. Schulz is no miracle worker, his focus on "wage equality" and more Europe isn't exactly going to entice many AfD-voters or people sitting on the fence to join the SPD.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2051 on: March 26, 2017, 11:36:40 AM »

How is the real count coming along?  Are the Greens really out?
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2052 on: March 26, 2017, 11:39:47 AM »

How is the real count coming along?  Are the Greens really out?
 
 
Tagesschau currently has them at 4,2%. They are out.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2053 on: March 26, 2017, 11:44:39 AM »

Left went down again.  I guess Lafontaine's influence is declining over time. 
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2054 on: March 26, 2017, 11:53:32 AM »

Seats according to the latest Infratest Dimap projection:  
  
CDU: 23 seats (+4)  
SPD: 18 seats (+1)  
Linke: 7 seats (-2)  
AfD: 3 seats (+3)  
  
One more and Red-Red would have a theoretical majority. I wouldn't go for it but would be important for the negotiating position of the SPD with the CDU.
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Beezer
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« Reply #2055 on: March 26, 2017, 11:58:10 AM »

AfD inching upward again...cause of absentee ballots? If I remember correctly they really underestimated the AfD vote in Berlin because of that.

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Boomer sooner
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« Reply #2056 on: March 26, 2017, 11:58:50 AM »

Seats according to the latest Infratest Dimap projection:  
  
CDU: 23 seats (+4)  
SPD: 18 seats (+1)  
Linke: 7 seats (-2)  
AfD: 3 seats (+3)  
  
One more and Red-Red would have a theoretical majority. I wouldn't go for it but would be important for the negotiating position of the SPD with the CDU.

Wouldn't that be bad for the SDP because of the upcoming General election? I thought I read that Linke is still associated with Communism?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2057 on: March 26, 2017, 11:59:06 AM »

Here is the actual count:

7/52 cities counted.

http://www.statistikextern.saarland.de/wahl/internet_saar/LT_SL/landesergebnisse/
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2058 on: March 26, 2017, 12:01:31 PM »

So the recent pattern of the parties of popular State PMs surprisingly overperforming continues.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2059 on: March 26, 2017, 12:07:44 PM »


Wouldn't that be bad for the SDP because of the upcoming General election? I thought I read that Linke is still associated with Communism?
 
  
What? No. I mean of course some people from the right-wing like to point out that they are the successor of the SED but that's about it. On a right-left scale they are very close to the left wing of the SPD. They have some weirdos in their ranks though and are very dogmatic about their pacifism. SPD and Linke are currently in 3 different state governments together though all of them are in East Germany where the party is known to be more pragmatic.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2060 on: March 26, 2017, 12:09:20 PM »

Regarding social policy they are more or less fine, even while a little bit too far on the far left for my taste.

Their foreign policy and their putin-loving is a dealbreaker for me.
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Boomer sooner
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« Reply #2061 on: March 26, 2017, 12:17:24 PM »

Okay. Thanks for the clarification they sound like a normal left wing European party and not some old communist one.
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #2062 on: March 26, 2017, 12:30:26 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2017, 12:50:15 PM by Sozialliberal »

Why is Saarland a separate state instead of being part of Rhineland-Palatinate? It's so tiny

It's because of the special history of Saarland. Germany and France often fought over this area. So it was part of Germany at times, and at other times, it was part of France. In 1935, 91 % of the people of Saarland voted in favour of becoming part of the German Reich again in a referendum. After World War II, it became a semi-sovereign state (with a strong French influence). Parties that opposed a sovereign Saarland, especially pro-German ones, were not allowed and the freedom of speech was restricted for anti-sovereigntists. That policiy was very unpopular with the local population and the cause of protests. The then premier of Saarland even envisioned that it should become the first "European territory" (think of it as kind of an EU version of Washington D.C.). The EU institutions that are now situated in Brussels, Luxembourg and Strasbourg would all be in Saarland if his plan had succeeded. The people of Saarland, however, voted against his proposal with a two-thirds majority in a referendum in 1955. The Saarland government interpreted the clear disapproval of the proposal as the people's wish to return to Germany.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2063 on: March 26, 2017, 12:48:25 PM »

Why is Saarland a separate state instead of being part of Rhineland-Palatinate? It's so tiny

It's because of the special history of Saarland. Germany and France often fought over this area. So it was part of Germany at times, and at other times, it was part of France. In 1935, 91 % of the people of Saarland voted in favour of becoming part of the German Reich again in a referendum. After World War II, it became a semi-sovereign state (with a strong French influence). Parties that opposed a sovereign Saarland, especially pro-German ones, were not allowed and the freedom of speech was restricted for anti-sovereigntists. That policiy was very unpopular with the local population and the cause of protests. The then premier of Saarland even envisioned that it should become the first "European territory" (i.e. directly governed by the ECC, the later EU; think of it as kind of an EU version of Washington D.C.). The EU institutions that are now situated in Brussels, Luxembourg and Strasbourg would all be in Saarland if his plan had succeeded. The people of Saarland, however, voted against his proposal with a two-thirds majority in a referendum in 1955. The Saarland government interpreted the clear disapproval of the proposal as the people's wish to return to Germany.
 
 
Very good explanation. I just want to add that there have been over the years multible ideas to redraw the German map and change the states. Almost all include that Berlin becomes part of Brandenburg, Hamburg becomes part of Schleswig-Holstein, Bremen becomes part of Niedersachsen and well Saarland becomes part of Rheinland-Pfalz. 
 
To show two examples:   
 
The so called Döring-Modell from 2003: 
 
 
The so called 8-state-solution from 1995: 
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2064 on: March 26, 2017, 12:52:23 PM »

who the hell created the concept...of...."nordelbingen"? this sounds soooo great, i would instantly vote for it.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2065 on: March 26, 2017, 01:18:44 PM »

who the hell created the concept...of...."nordelbingen"? this sounds soooo great, i would instantly vote for it.
 
 
It's by Werner Rutz. It is basically a wider metropolitan area of Hamburg which is interesting but I would object. I have lived in Greifswald, I've been in Bremerhaven, Emden, Hamburg, Kiel, etc. - If we go down this route I would prefer a true Northern State looking somewhat like what I've drawn below and call it Hansebund or something like that. Culturally someone from Wilhelmshaven is much closer to someone from Wismar then someone from Wolfsburg. Or someone from Stralsund is much closer to someone from Bremerhaven then someone from Cottbus. Our maritim, northern lifestyle is pretty unique but shared across the whole coastal area. 
 
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Mike88
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« Reply #2066 on: March 26, 2017, 01:22:08 PM »

CDU at 42.4% and SPD at 29.7% right now. Any new seat projection?
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2067 on: March 26, 2017, 01:28:30 PM »

CDU at 42.4% and SPD at 29.7% right now. Any new seat projection?
 
 
Most likely 24 CDU, 17 SPD, 7 Linke, 3 AfD. The two largest cities Saarbrücken and Neuenkichen aren't in yet but something big would need to happen to give Red-Red the majority.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2068 on: March 26, 2017, 01:34:15 PM »

CDU at 42.4% and SPD at 29.7% right now. Any new seat projection?
 
 
Most likely 24 CDU, 17 SPD, 7 Linke, 3 AfD. The two largest cities Saarbrücken and Neuenkichen aren't in yet but something big would need to happen to give Red-Red the majority.

Saarbrücken is actually fully counted already.
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Boomer sooner
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« Reply #2069 on: March 26, 2017, 01:44:09 PM »

Why is the fdp still doing terribly? I know they got the junior coalition treatment in 2013 but they still seem to be down there now. What made them so toxic?
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Mike88
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« Reply #2070 on: March 26, 2017, 01:44:32 PM »

CDU at 42.4% and SPD at 29.7% right now. Any new seat projection?
 
 
Most likely 24 CDU, 17 SPD, 7 Linke, 3 AfD. The two largest cities Saarbrücken and Neuenkichen aren't in yet but something big would need to happen to give Red-Red the majority.

Saarbrücken is actually fully counted already.
There are still 6 cities to be counted, but i don't know where they are.

Also, can these results give any clues to the Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia elections in May? The SPD is ahead in both right now although the CDU slipped in the last few polls in both states.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2071 on: March 26, 2017, 01:51:57 PM »

NRW and SH are much more spd-friendly in general, cause the north is more of a SPD bulwark in general and if sitting governors really got an advantage, these times the SPD would benefit from it.

besides local trends, i guess the results underline the weakness of the green party, the slighlty weaker afd prospects compared to 2016, and the need for the FDP to fight for its life.

maybe also showing that the national SPD is overrated but how much would be too early.

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rob in cal
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« Reply #2072 on: March 26, 2017, 01:53:36 PM »

  Probably a lot of potential FDP voters went with CDU, and also somewhat among Green voters going to Linke and SPD
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2073 on: March 26, 2017, 02:09:21 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2017, 02:12:20 PM by Bumaye »

Final result:  
  
CDU: 40,7%  
SPD: 29,6%  
Linke: 12,9%  
AfD: 6,2%  
Grüne: 4,0%  
FDP: 3,3%  
Family Party: 0,8%  
Pirate Party: 0,7%  
NPD: 0,7%  
Free Voters: 0,4%  
LKR: 0,2%  
  
All others received less then 1.000 votes each and 0,6% combined. 
 
Turnout: 69,7% 
 
Very bad result for the tiny parties. Free Voters and Family Party each lost for example more then half of their percents.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2074 on: March 26, 2017, 02:14:17 PM »

It seems that CDU did well on talks of a possible SPD-Linke coalition.  My question is why is that such a fear?  In 2012 SPD+Linke actually had a majority of seats yet SPD went with CDU.  Is that not enough for SPD to prove that it is not planning a SPD-Linke coalition ?
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