German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

Why is the fdp still doing terribly? I know they got the junior coalition treatment in 2013 but they still seem to be down there now. What made them so toxic?

I was thinking the same thing.  Although FDP did increase from 2012 and FDP in 1994 and 1999 also failed to clear 5% in Saarland state elections.

[DL]

It seems that CDU did well on talks of a possible SPD-Linke coalition.  My question is why is that such a fear?  In 2012 SPD+Linke actually had a majority of seats yet SPD went with CDU.  Is that not enough for SPD to prove that it is not planning a SPD-Linke coalition ?

Possibly because the CDU premier is personally very popular so people didn't want to lose her?

[DavidB.]

Wondering about the extent of the Piraten > AfD swing.

[Klartext89]

Big Schulz veeeeeeeeeeery strong candidate! Veeeeeeery strong! The German Hillary!

It's a wonderful morning in Germany, lots of sun, still a bit cold beacuse of the wind, but the summer is clearly loading.

Yesterday, once again, I was proven damn right. Not a big surprise, but enough to write a few sentences.

As you all know the litte Saarland voted yesterday. Normally not that important, but always interesting.

There are these takeaways:

1. SPD/Schulz: The big Loser of yesterday. There's no "Schulz effect" or euphoria for the Capo outside of German media headquarters, there's simply an interest of getting rid of Merkel. This guy has nothing to show. Neither is he a good rhetorician, neither has he Charisma nor a program. Simply hot air, big mouth and a radical plan to destroy and dissolve Germany to be part of a big "United Nations of Europe". The more the people learn about him, the fewer fall for his and the medias Propaganda. He's the German Hillary Clinton. Veeeeeeeery popular in polls, veeeeery weak at the Ballot box.

2. CDU: Big win, not question. I stopped being angry about voters who always fall for their conservative election campaign after and before governing like Liberals. People liked Madame Prime Minister and therefore the party got a boost. Once more it shows that German state and local elections are more about people and likability than politics.

3. Greens: Big joy yesterday. This radical left-wing anti-German crap is disappering every day a bit more. Very good! At least Schulz has something I can thank him for :-D

4. FDP: Well... I wouldn't bet that they will easily enter Bundestag again. They will get a boost from NRW and Schleswig-Holstein because of their most prominent politicians being Leaders there, but they still suck and without having any reasonable plan or utility they will have a hard time in a lot of states.

5. AfD: The Saar AfD is a totally chaotic group having had several scandals and infights over the last couple of years. They got a poor showing and they absoluetly deserved it. Unity is important, I hope Petry learns from it and the Saar AfD starts to become ONE party and takes the role as the secon-biggest Opposition Party in parliament.
Nevertheless it is promising that even when the national party is nearly doing nothing to help (very few Money ressources and menpower to help in the election campaign) and with a bit strange and questionable candidates on the Ballot and with an election campaign only speaking about CDU vs. Red-Red-(Green), there are enough voters everywhere in the country to easily enter parliament. With FDP and Greens failing, there is nothing to be ashamed of.

6. Left: Oscar we still love you - but there are every time fewer people who still remember the 80s and 90s.

All in all: Thanks to the AfD there's no red-red majority. Secretly, the CDU will be very pleased with the result and this fact.

[Klartext89]

Why is the fdp still doing terribly? I know they got the junior coalition treatment in 2013 but they still seem to be down there now. What made them so toxic?

I was thinking the same thing.  Although FDP did increase from 2012 and FDP in 1994 and 1999 also failed to clear 5% in Saarland state elections.

The FDP historically got their votes from these groups:

1. High income people, mainly freelancers like dentists, doctors, lawyers, tax sonsultants, Auditors etc.
2. Protestant faith

The Saarland is heavily catholic and working-class (coal country), one of the poorest states in Germany.

The only things that really surprised me are the big distance from the threshold despite polling close to 5%, the fact that no CDU-voters felt they had to vote FDP to help them enter parliament and prevent a red-re-(green) majority. That's what cost the FDP the Bundestag group in 2013 because they normally get CDU crossover votes and that changed there.

[Klartext89]

who the hell created the concept...of...."nordelbingen"? this sounds soooo great, i would instantly vote for it.

 
 
It's by Werner Rutz. It is basically a wider metropolitan area of Hamburg which is interesting but I would object. I have lived in Greifswald, I've been in Bremerhaven, Emden, Hamburg, Kiel, etc. - If we go down this route I would prefer a true Northern State looking somewhat like what I've drawn below and call it Hansebund or something like that. Culturally someone from Wilhelmshaven is much closer to someone from Wismar then someone from Wolfsburg. Or someone from Stralsund is much closer to someone from Bremerhaven then someone from Cottbus. Our maritim, northern lifestyle is pretty unique but shared across the whole coastal area. 
 

I would go even furthr and make a 6 state solution:

- Baden-Württemberg as it is today
- Bavaria as it is today
- Saarland, Rhineland-Pfalz, Hesse to form one state
- NRW as it is today
- Lower Saxony, Bremen, Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein to form a North State
- The whole former GDR

Well, I know that it is hard to name the former GDR "East Germany" and the Hesse-RP-Saar state "middle Germany" because historically GDR is middle Germany, but if not even myself is really caring anymore about the real East Germany, why not naming it like it is today and will sadly stay so for many centuries to come.

But I guess we will still have 16 states when we're celebrating 22th century...

[Bumaye]

Wondering about the extent of the Piraten > AfD swing.

 
 
Pirates are not listed for themselves but the AfD got the biggest share of their voters from "others" - of course some of those votes are former NPD votes and probably also Family Party but the lion share should come from the Pirate Party. 
 
Looking at where the AfD votes came from it's pretty clear that they had no influence on the major parties but mainly collected votes from protest (non-)voters. 
 

[Vosem]

who the hell created the concept...of...."nordelbingen"? this sounds soooo great, i would instantly vote for it.

According to English Wikipedia, the chronicler Adam of Bremen recorded in 1076 AD that Nordalbingia is divided into three parts

[Representative simossad]

Big Schulz veeeeeeeeeeery strong candidate! Veeeeeeery strong! The German Hillary!

It's a wonderful morning in Germany, lots of sun, still a bit cold beacuse of the wind, but the summer is clearly loading.

Yesterday, once again, I was proven damn right. Not a big surprise, but enough to write a few sentences.

As you all know the litte Saarland voted yesterday. Normally not that important, but always interesting.

There are these takeaways:

1. SPD/Schulz: The big Loser of yesterday. There's no "Schulz effect" or euphoria for the Capo outside of German media headquarters, there's simply an interest of getting rid of Merkel. This guy has nothing to show. Neither is he a good rhetorician, neither has he Charisma nor a program. Simply hot air, big mouth and a radical plan to destroy and dissolve Germany to be part of a big "United Nations of Europe". The more the people learn about him, the fewer fall for his and the medias Propaganda. He's the German Hillary Clinton. Veeeeeeeery popular in polls, veeeeery weak at the Ballot box.

2. CDU: Big win, not question. I stopped being angry about voters who always fall for their conservative election campaign after and before governing like Liberals. People liked Madame Prime Minister and therefore the party got a boost. Once more it shows that German state and local elections are more about people and likability than politics.

3. Greens: Big joy yesterday. This radical left-wing anti-German crap is disappering every day a bit more. Very good! At least Schulz has something I can thank him for :-D

4. FDP: Well... I wouldn't bet that they will easily enter Bundestag again. They will get a boost from NRW and Schleswig-Holstein because of their most prominent politicians being Leaders there, but they still suck and without having any reasonable plan or utility they will have a hard time in a lot of states.

5. AfD: The Saar AfD is a totally chaotic group having had several scandals and infights over the last couple of years. They got a poor showing and they absoluetly deserved it. Unity is important, I hope Petry learns from it and the Saar AfD starts to become ONE party and takes the role as the secon-biggest Opposition Party in parliament.
Nevertheless it is promising that even when the national party is nearly doing nothing to help (very few Money ressources and menpower to help in the election campaign) and with a bit strange and questionable candidates on the Ballot and with an election campaign only speaking about CDU vs. Red-Red-(Green), there are enough voters everywhere in the country to easily enter parliament. With FDP and Greens failing, there is nothing to be ashamed of.

6. Left: Oscar we still love you - but there are every time fewer people who still remember the 80s and 90s.

All in all: Thanks to the AfD there's no red-red majority. Secretly, the CDU will be very pleased with the result and this fact.

That's perhabs the worst election analysis I have ever read in my entire life.

[Klartext89]

That's perhabs the worst election analysis I have ever read in my entire life.

You may not like it, but it's all true and you know it ;-)

But I can imagine that you mostly read "analysis" from the German left-wing media propaganda networks, so you're reading crap every day and election. No wonder you're shocked when reading reality. Sorry, not sorry.

If we're talking about the German public GEZ-paid media (pay for the propaganda or get jailed in the "most free Germany of all time"), yesterday I saw an Analysis of the ARD/ZDF talk Show guests in 2017:

CDU/CSU 29 appearances
SPD 24
Greens 12
FDP 8
Linke 8
AfD 1

Great Democracy we're having. But of course, the German media is totally non-bias - let's get outraged about RT Propaganda! ;-)

[Tender Branson]

The NRW election could end up being the reverse of the Saarland election: In Saarland, the popular CDU-Governor was responsible for pushing the party above 40%, 5% more than what polling showed. The SPD underperformed, even though their frontrunner was also quite popular.

In NRW, it's Governor Hannelore Kraft (SPD) who has very high ratings (64% approving of her job), while the CDU-guy only has 40% approval ratings. Even Christian ("Barney") Lindner (FDP) has better ratings than the CDU-guy ...



And in a direct vote for Governor, Kraft is also far ahead of the CDU-guy:



On the other hand, NRW has 18 million people vs the 1 million in Saarland, so this might shake things up - but I still believe Kraft and the SPD might outperform the polls there. I guess the Greens will take a bigger hit tough.

[Representative simossad]

That's perhabs the worst election analysis I have ever read in my entire life.

You may not like it, but it's all true and you know it ;-)

But I can imagine that you mostly read "analysis" from the German left-wing media propaganda networks, so you're reading crap every day and election. No wonder you're shocked when reading reality. Sorry, not sorry.

If we're talking about the German public GEZ-paid media (pay for the propaganda or get jailed in the "most free Germany of all time"), yesterday I saw an Analysis of the ARD/ZDF talk Show guests in 2017:

CDU/CSU 29 appearances
SPD 24
Greens 12
FDP 8
Linke 8
AfD 1

Great Democracy we're having. But of course, the German media is totally non-bias - let's get outraged about RT Propaganda! ;-)

Thank you for indirectly supporting my argument.

[Klartext89]

That's perhabs the worst election analysis I have ever read in my entire life.

You may not like it, but it's all true and you know it ;-)

But I can imagine that you mostly read "analysis" from the German left-wing media propaganda networks, so you're reading crap every day and election. No wonder you're shocked when reading reality. Sorry, not sorry.

If we're talking about the German public GEZ-paid media (pay for the propaganda or get jailed in the "most free Germany of all time"), yesterday I saw an Analysis of the ARD/ZDF talk Show guests in 2017:

CDU/CSU 29 appearances
SPD 24
Greens 12
FDP 8
Linke 8
AfD 1

Great Democracy we're having. But of course, the German media is totally non-bias - let's get outraged about RT Propaganda! ;-)

Thank you for indirectly supporting my argument.

I see, again too much reality and arguments for the average media victim ;-)

[adma]

I see, again too much reality and arguments for the average media victim ;-)

Yeah, you really seem the "Lügenpresse" sort.  In which case, maybe we should start a "Klartext89 forum ban" countdown...

[Middle-aged Europe]

The 2017 North Rhine-Westphalian CDU campaign compared to the 1994 Lower Saxon SPD campaign:



"Listening. Deciding. Acting."

[Tender Branson]

I'm now even more confident that May 14 will end up being a great day for Kraft and the SPD.

[Beezer]

God, I am so sick and tired of these three word campaign taglines. Are they as widespread abroad as well? Seriously, every f'ing candidate in Germany just comes up with three random words (Honest. Tough. Caring.) and then sticks them on a campaign poster. As if they made any sort of difference.

[windjammer]

What is going on with Afd?

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD is even starting to crash now in their favorite pollsters' newest poll.


INSA

SPD 32.5% (+0.5%)
CDU/CSU 32.0% (+-0%)
AfD 9% (-2%)
Left 9% (+0.5%)
Greens 6.5% (+-0%)
FDP 6.5% (+0.5%)

Majority for Red-Red-Green or Red-Black.


What's going on with the AfD?

- Frauke Petry recently threatend to resign and leave the party if she isn't made sole lead candidate for the Bundestag election. Her, um, enemies insist on a lead team instead of Petry as the sole leader... maybe they hope that she resigns and leaves the party.

- Expulsion procedures against Björn Höcke are moving forward. He also plans to attend the upcoming AfD national congress, even though the hotel where the congress is held has banned him from entering the premises.

[Bumaye]

Forsa dropped a Berlin Poll and I thought it's maybe interesting to compare it with the results of last October's election: 
 
SPD: 25% (+3,4) 
CDU: 20% (+2,4) 
Linke: 16% (+0,4) 
Grüne: 13% (-2,2) 
AfD: 8% (-6,2) 
FDP: 7% (+0,3) 
   
 
So it kinda proves the general direction we're seeing all over the country. AfD is falling but definitely isn't done yet. The SPD has it's Schulz-Effect which at the same time weakens the Greens while Linke and FDP don't give a f*** and stay roughly the same. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How is the red red green coalition holding up, anyway?

[SPQR]

Forsa dropped a Berlin Poll and I thought it's maybe interesting to compare it with the results of last October's election: 
 
SPD: 25% (+3,4) 
CDU: 20% (+2,4) 
Linke: 16% (+0,4) 
Grüne: 13% (-2,2) 
AfD: 8% (-6,2) 
FDP: 7% (+0,3) 
   
 
So it kinda proves the general direction we're seeing all over the country. AfD is falling but definitely isn't done yet. The SPD has it's Schulz-Effect which at the same time weakens the Greens while Linke and FDP don't give a f*** and stay roughly the same. 

Who's getting the other 11%? Seems a pretty high % for "others" with respect to the national scenario.

[Tender Branson]

Forsa dropped a Berlin Poll and I thought it's maybe interesting to compare it with the results of last October's election:  
  
SPD: 25% (+3,4)  
CDU: 20% (+2,4)  
Linke: 16% (+0,4)  
Grüne: 13% (-2,2)  
AfD: 8% (-6,2)  
FDP: 7% (+0,3)  
  
  
So it kinda proves the general direction we're seeing all over the country. AfD is falling but definitely isn't done yet. The SPD has it's Schulz-Effect which at the same time weakens the Greens while Linke and FDP don't give a f*** and stay roughly the same.  

Who's getting the other 11%? Seems a pretty high % for "others" with respect to the national scenario.

In the 2016 Berlin state election, "others" got more than 9%:

2.0% The Party
1.9% Animal Rights Party
1.7% Pirate Party
1.1% Grey Panthers
0.6% NPD
0.5% Party for Health Research
0.4% proGermany
0.4% Alliance for Progress
0.2% German Communist Party

And a few others with 0.1% each

[Barnes]

How is the red red green coalition holding up, anyway?

They could get a rather slim majority on most polls, but I honestly think Schulz would try for a Red-Green minority with some kind of agreement with the Left if at all possible. While rare, minority governments aren't without precedent federally.

Of course, another grand coalition would be easier to manage in that situation, honestly.

[Tender Branson]

I seriously doubt that Red-Maroon-Green will get a majority in September ...

In the end, Merkel will pull this out again and there'll be a renewed Grand Coalition.