German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

Schulztrain facing serious problems in NRW as well?

[DavidB.]

Among the members of "Köln stellt sich quer" are the CDU, the FDP, the SPD, the Greens, the Left Party, the Pirate Party, all major labor unions, both Christian churches, Jewish organizations, Amnesty International, and so on... all in all more than 80 organizations.

#NotInMyName

[ApatheticAustrian]

those nrw numbers would instantly kill schulz.

and cologne means that there is no more "moderate" afd wing.

[Beezer]

those nrw numbers would instantly kill schulz.

and cologne means that there is no more "moderate" afd wing.

Well, they're gonna be the sole party with a homosexual spitzenkandidat. Doesn't that count for something?

[rob in cal]

  If the Bundestag election leads to a CDU/CSU FDP near majority of seats, with RRG further behind in seats and a AFD delegation holding the rest of the seats, would a minority CDU/CSU FDP government be a possibility?

[ApatheticAustrian]

going out on a limb but....not in germany. not on the national level.

[Tender Branson]

 If the Bundestag election leads to a CDU/CSU FDP near majority of seats, with RRG further behind in seats and a AFD delegation holding the rest of the seats, would a minority CDU/CSU FDP government be a possibility?

Why would they risk a minority government with the FDP when they can get another cozy grand coalition with the SPD as junior partner, who then keeps on losing the next general election again in 2021 ?

[Kringla Heimsins]

those nrw numbers would instantly kill schulz.

and cologne means that there is no more "moderate" afd wing.

Well, they're gonna be the sole party with a homosexual spitzenkandidat. Doesn't that count for something?

Wait, what? It can't be Gauland, so is Alice Weidel LGBT?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Wait, what? It can't be Gauland, so is Alice Weidel LGBT?

you answered it your self but...yeah.

and she obviously never pointed it out but this is germany for you.

we may not be seen as liberal in some ways than france but we actually don't really care about this topic anymore in the german world....no big rallies or stuff.

[Beezer]

those nrw numbers would instantly kill schulz.

and cologne means that there is no more "moderate" afd wing.

Well, they're gonna be the sole party with a homosexual spitzenkandidat. Doesn't that count for something?

Wait, what? It can't be Gauland, so is Alice Weidel LGBT?

You didn't know Gauland was dating black men?

[Former President tack50]

 If the Bundestag election leads to a CDU/CSU FDP near majority of seats, with RRG further behind in seats and a AFD delegation holding the rest of the seats, would a minority CDU/CSU FDP government be a possibility?

Why would they risk a minority government with the FDP when they can get another cozy grand coalition with the SPD as junior partner, who then keeps on losing the next general election again in 2021 ?

I guess SPD could just say no, but not likely to happen. Plus, wouldn't CDU/FDP/Greens be another viable alternative?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

those nrw numbers would instantly kill schulz.

and cologne means that there is no more "moderate" afd wing.

Well, they're gonna be the sole party with a homosexual spitzenkandidat. Doesn't that count for something?

i thought y'alls were against ~identity politics~?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

those nrw numbers would instantly kill schulz.

and cologne means that there is no more "moderate" afd wing.

Well, they're gonna be the sole party with a homosexual spitzenkandidat. Doesn't that count for something?

i thought y'alls were against ~identity politics~?

the right are far shallower in their approach to identity politics than any Tumblrqueer Left Leftist could ever dream of. Like, the easiest way to get upvoted on The_Donald is to go "oh hi I'm a transgender lesbian Latina ex-muslim and I'M DEPLORABLE because PIZZAGATE etc."

Witness also this fairly embarrassing "wow, don't you want to shatter the glass ceiling by voting for Le Pen over straight white males!" that's becoming quite popular now.

[Tender Branson]

New YouGov NRW poll:



Time for Hannelore Kraft to chill, after that outlier-ish looking ARD poll.

[Representative simossad]

New YouGov NRW poll:



Time for Hannelore Kraft to chill, after that outlier-ish looking ARD poll.

That poll was really strange. The majority of polls sees the CDU below 30 percent in NRW.

[Sozialliberal]

 If the Bundestag election leads to a CDU/CSU FDP near majority of seats, with RRG further behind in seats and a AFD delegation holding the rest of the seats, would a minority CDU/CSU FDP government be a possibility?

Why would they risk a minority government with the FDP when they can get another cozy grand coalition with the SPD as junior partner, who then keeps on losing the next general election again in 2021 ?

I guess SPD could just say no, but not likely to happen. Plus, wouldn't CDU/FDP/Greens be another viable alternative?

A CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP coalition, also called "Jamaica coalition", would be a possibility if neither red-red-green nor black-green nor black-yellow had a majority. The left wing of the Greens, which I'd term the "alternative wing" (as in "alternative lifestyle"), would certainly try very hard to prevent this coalition. The alternative wing prefers red-red-green to black-green. The right wing of the Greens, which I'd call the "bourgeois wing", would be more open to a Jamaica coalition because they generally prefer a coalition with the CDU to a coalition with Die Linke. Both Green top candidates for this year's Bundestag election are representatives of the bourgeois wing, which is a sign that this wing is currently the stronger one within the party. The CSU definitely wouldn't like to form any coalition with the Greens, but they're a spineless lot, so I wouldn't rule it out.

By the way, a Jamaica coalition could be formed after this year's Schleswig-Holstein state election, as both the CDU top candidate and the FDP top candidate suggested. The Greens of Schleswig-Holstein said that they didn't rule this coalition out.

In case anyone is confused about the colours of the major parties:
CDU/CSU = black
SPD = red
AfD = blue
Die Linke = red (also "dark red" when Die Linke is contrasted with the SPD)
Greens = green
FDP = yellow

[Tender Branson]

A new ZDF poll shows the CDU overtaking the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein (votes next Sunday):



Greens remain quite strong up there. Any reason for that ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Greens remain quite strong up there. Any reason for that ?

1. Robert Habeck.

2. Not running a sh**tty campaign.

[Sorenroy]

Totally out of the loop here. Haven't looked at the polling for several months and just noticed that the SPD has jumped about 10% over the past two months or so. Can anyone give me a brief explanation of why that is?

[Representative simossad]

Totally out of the loop here. Haven't looked at the polling for several months and just noticed that the SPD has jumped about 10% over the past two months or so. Can anyone give me a brief explanation of why that is?

Martin Schulz.

[Tender Branson]

Totally out of the loop here. Haven't looked at the polling for several months and just noticed that the SPD has jumped about 10% over the past two months or so. Can anyone give me a brief explanation of why that is?

A very short summary:

A guy named Martin Schulz took over the SPD and he was instantly seen as the new Jesus of the party that will save them from all their ills. But Schulz turned out to be a blank slate and of course he's an overrated Eurocrat (who would have totally flopped here in Austria). And more and more Germans who flirted with him and the SPD over the past months are realizing now that there's only hot air surrounding him and now the bubble is over ...

Maybe some of the German posters can present a more detailed analysis.

PS: Stop editing my posts Hash, you fascist fu**er.

[palandio]

Looking at the federal SPD results before 2005 and many of the more recent regional results, it is clear that the SPD always had a voter potential of over 30%. Many of these voters stayed away from the SPD because it was just too unattractive, but they were just waiting for any kind of signal to come back, at least temporarily. This in turn has made the coming election more competitive and reactivated CDU/CSU voters. And to be honest I don't see yet how the bubble is over, at least in the polls. The SPD peaked at 32% at most and is now slightly above 30%, almost 10 percentage points above the polls from the beginning of the year.

That being said I do see problems ahead for Schulz and the SPD. Schulz' involvement in the European insitutions will come under scrutiny. He will either give up on the R2G option or this option will motivate CDU voters, or both. And giving up on governing options is bad, particularly for the SPD because many of its potential voters are not willing to vote for a future junior partner in a reiterated grand coalition.
I still doubt that the SPD will be able to make this election campaign about social justice and to be seen as the main party supporting it, particularly with eurocrat Schulz at the top. I mean, they have been in government for 15 out of the last 20 years. I still fear that the SPD won't be able to communicate how measures like the minimum wage, support for single moms, earlier retirement ages for people with 45 years continuous employment and the double citizenship are useful for the society as a whole and not just handouts to particular groups. Please get me right, I'm not saying that these measures are wrong, but "for everyone we have something" is not the same as "we have one thing that is for everyone", and the SPD needs both.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Since the SPD hasn't exactly fallen back to their pre-Schulz 20% in the polls I'd agree that the bubble hasn't burst (yet?)... Schulz has merely put his peak behind him.

[Sorenroy]

So, just making sure I understand things, a popular person took over the SPD and caused it's support to skyrocket (for some reason) and it may or may not now be fading slightly.

[Beezer]

More like a more or less nondescript person took over the SPD, the media was having a circle jerk over this supposedly fresh face (even though the guy's been a member of the SPD party executive for close to two decades) and now support is waning once again.

I know some in the US complained about the media essentially providing Trump with free publicity but this pales in comparison to what transpired in Germany after Schulz became the SPD's leader. Non-stop coverage, virtually all of it positive.