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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655370 times)
Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #2425 on: June 26, 2017, 03:54:57 AM »

To be fair, is that a private group of supporters, a group of the leadership, what?

Because if it's a private group of supporters then I don't see the problem. They are borderline neo-nazis sure, but you shouldn't ban an ideology.

If it's an official group they should be expelled, they've gone way too far.

It's a Whatsapp group called "AfD Info LSA", run by their state chapter in Saxony-Anhalt.

It's supposed to have around 200 members. The members of the AfD state executive committee (including the state chairman, one of his deputy chairmen, and the state treasurer) serve as the administrators of the group. Other members include the chairman of the Saxony-Anhalt chapter of the AfD youth organization, as well as several members of the state parliament.


The originator of these aforementioned quotes has been identified as Nico Backhaus, deputy county chairman of the AfD and federal police officer:

"I have four children. I won't leave them to the Musulman faith (which isn't one). I'm also a good shooter, hence a good hit rate. I intend to get a private gun license too."

"I have to agree with you. But it's doable. All for one and one for all." (in response to: "I'm afraid that the upcoming, massive, establishment-made mistakes can only be solved by "chambering a round" and not so easily.")

Oh, so it's official and involving high up people! Well I guess now everyone knows that the AfD has some sympathies for neo nazis.

To follow up on this... André Poggenburg, the chairman of the Saxony-Anhalt state chapter of the AfD, has now been formally reprimanded by the AfD federal executive committee (of which he is himself a member of). There won't be any expulsion procedures initiated for now though.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2426 on: June 27, 2017, 11:35:14 AM »

Article (German)

Armin Laschet (CDU) has just been elected Prime-Minister of Northrhine-Westphalia, the country's most populated state. He received 100 out of 199 votes in the legislature, exactly the number he needed and the new government-coalition has. Despite being a member of the SPD, I hope he's doing a good job. Laschet is a moderate heroTM and a very likeable person.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #2427 on: June 27, 2017, 12:36:11 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2017, 12:42:48 PM by Chairman of the 2024 Trump campaign for Russian president »

We suddenly have a gay marriage debate in Germany now too.


It basically went like this:

Pretty much every major political party except CDU/CSU and AfD (which ironically is the only party with a gay lead candidate, raising her children together with her female partner) has now gay marriage and gay adoption as a plank in their campaign platform connected with a pledge to not enter a governing coalition which doesn't legalize it.

This means every potential coalition partner of Angela Merkel (SPD, FDP, Greens) wants to have gay marriage as a pre-condition for forming a government with her after the election. Which lead to Merkel saying yesterday: "Okay, fair enough." Martin Schulz basically responded by saying: "Great, let's pass a bill right NOW." And the conservative wing of the CDU/CSU basically said: "F**k you, Merkel!"
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2428 on: June 27, 2017, 01:08:37 PM »

And the conservative wing of the CDU/CSU basically said: "F**k you, Merkel!"

Who cares what these backwards rednecks want ? They should go and f**k themselves.

It's time for the CDU/CSU/ÖVP to get this issue over with and vote for it (it's long overdue already).
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2429 on: June 27, 2017, 01:12:50 PM »

This is typical Merkel.

She plays both the conservative wing and the liberals and boosts her own standing in the process.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #2430 on: June 27, 2017, 01:44:22 PM »

We suddenly have a gay marriage debate in Germany now too.


It basically went like this:

Pretty much every major political party except CDU/CSU and AfD (which ironically is the only party with a gay lead candidate, raising her children together with her female partner) has now gay marriage and gay adoption as a plank in their campaign platform connected with a pledge to not enter a governing coalition which doesn't legalize it.

This means every potential coalition partner of Angela Merkel (SPD, FDP, Greens) wants to have gay marriage as a pre-condition for forming a government with her after the election. Which lead to Merkel saying yesterday: "Okay, fair enough." Martin Schulz basically responded by saying: "Great, let's pass a bill right NOW." And the conservative wing of the CDU/CSU basically said: "F**k you, Merkel!"
German politics is funny
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« Reply #2431 on: June 27, 2017, 03:31:22 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2017, 03:35:59 PM by Chairman of the 2024 Trump campaign for Russian president »

This is typical Merkel.

She plays both the conservative wing and the liberals and boosts her own standing in the process.

Well, SPD, FDP, and Greens basically backed Merkel into a corner which caused her to throw the conservatives of her own party under the bus.

In the media, it is considered at least a tactical victory for Martin Schulz too. Angela Merkel simply considered having a coalition partner after the election to be of higher priority than continuing opposing gay marriage... which she never really cared about herself anyway. So, she decided to fold.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2432 on: June 28, 2017, 10:56:20 AM »

Forsa shows CDU/CSU at 40%. No majority for CDU/CSU-FDP though ...

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TheSaint250
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« Reply #2433 on: June 28, 2017, 11:20:43 AM »

Forsa shows CDU/CSU at 40%. No majority for CDU/CSU-FDP though ...


I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2434 on: June 28, 2017, 12:45:38 PM »

I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel
No, they wouldn't.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #2435 on: June 28, 2017, 12:47:33 PM »

I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel
No, they wouldn't.
Would they just go for a grand coalition again or do a German flag coalition or a Jamaica coalition?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2436 on: June 28, 2017, 01:53:16 PM »

I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel
No, they wouldn't.
Would they just go for a grand coalition again or do a German flag coalition or a Jamaica coalition?
If possible, a Jamaica coalition would be preferable to the traffic light, German flag, or grand coalition.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2437 on: June 28, 2017, 03:43:59 PM »

I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel
No, they wouldn't.


we are atm in for either black - yellow or black - red....i know, the spd kind of rejected this but they got no balls and hate state crises.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2438 on: June 28, 2017, 04:41:51 PM »

Forsa shows CDU/CSU at 40%. No majority for CDU/CSU-FDP though ...



Oof! Looks like the SPD is on track to lose votes from 2016! (25.9% I believe) Looks like Schulz's tenure is set to be rather short especially if Merkel and the CDU/CSU gain the 6 seats and win the majority.
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mgop
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« Reply #2439 on: June 30, 2017, 07:37:01 AM »

why did merkel voted against gay marriage? is germany so homophobic that she decided to vote against because of election, or is it just because of her homophobia?
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« Reply #2440 on: June 30, 2017, 08:02:01 AM »

why did merkel voted against gay marriage? is germany so homophobic that she decided to vote against because of election, or is it just because of her homophobia?

Strategic vote to appease the majority (which is opposed to gay marriage) within her own party.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #2441 on: June 30, 2017, 09:59:33 AM »
« Edited: June 30, 2017, 10:04:04 AM by Helsinkian »

why did merkel voted against gay marriage? is germany so homophobic that she decided to vote against because of election, or is it just because of her homophobia?

This is interesting, don't you think:

A person who thinks that gay people should be allowed to have civil unions but not marriage rights, would have been...

- A radical in the 1950s
- A liberal in the 1970s
- A moderate in the 1990s
- A conservative in the 2010s
- A reactionary in the 2020s

A phobia is defined as an irrational fear. Claiming that all people opposed to gay marriage are afraid of homosexuals is a ridiculous argument.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #2442 on: June 30, 2017, 12:33:15 PM »

why did merkel voted against gay marriage? is germany so homophobic that she decided to vote against because of election, or is it just because of her homophobia?

This is interesting, don't you think:

A person who thinks that gay people should be allowed to have civil unions but not marriage rights, would have been...

- A radical in the 1950s
- A liberal in the 1970s
- A moderate in the 1990s
- A conservative in the 2010s
- A reactionary in the 2020s

A phobia is defined as an irrational fear. Claiming that all people opposed to gay marriage are afraid of homosexuals is a ridiculous argument.

"Homophobia" is not literally a fear of gay people, despite the origins of the term "phobia." It encompasses a wide net of negative emotions towards LGBTs.
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« Reply #2443 on: June 30, 2017, 03:46:50 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2017, 03:50:34 PM by Chairman of the 2024 Trump campaign for Russian president »

why did merkel voted against gay marriage? is germany so homophobic that she decided to vote against because of election, or is it just because of her homophobia?

This is interesting, don't you think:

A person who thinks that gay people should be allowed to have civil unions but not marriage rights, would have been...

- A radical in the 1950s
- A liberal in the 1970s
- A moderate in the 1990s
- A conservative in the 2010s
- A reactionary in the 2020s

If you had changed the centuries, you could have made exactly the same argument with "give women the active, but not the passive right to vote" though.
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« Reply #2444 on: July 02, 2017, 03:19:34 AM »

Anyhow, the rise of CDU and FDP comes at the expanse of the AfD who dwindles back into irrelevancy. Today's Emnid poll sees them at only 7% which is the lowest for the party in an Emnid poll in 19 months. The unweighted "political climate" of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen even sees them as low as 5%. 
 
Good that gay marriage is finally a thing, it was about damn time. But honestly seeing the SPD celebrate that as their victory is annoying. If they chose the right coalition partners after the last election they could have gotten that and many other things years ago.
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mvd10
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« Reply #2445 on: July 02, 2017, 06:29:04 AM »

So what's Schulz future going to be if he ends up with 26% or less? He can't stay on as party leader in that case, but I suppose a cabinet job is possible if we end up with CDU/CSU-SPD?
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« Reply #2446 on: July 02, 2017, 07:37:46 AM »

Anyhow, the rise of CDU and FDP comes at the expanse of the AfD who dwindles back into irrelevancy. Today's Emnid poll sees them at only 7% which is the lowest for the party in an Emnid poll in 19 months. The unweighted "political climate" of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen even sees them as low as 5%. 

I think several things are contributed to the AfD's downfall:

1) The whole refugee/terrorism thing has become less relevant in the public mind, up to the point that AfD leaders have made statements that they "hope" that the situation will worsen again in the future. The last time "refugees and terrorism" made headlines in Germany was when that far-right military officer was arrested who had successfully posed as a fake refugee with the intention of carrying out a false-flag terrorist attack and blame it on Muslims. The Merkel government also started to get tough on asylum-seekers, up to the point that it backfired on them (the riots at that school in Bavaria when they attempted to deport one of the students).

2) The aforementioned Whatsapp-gate in Saxony-Anhalt probably has tarnished the party's reputation even further. The leaked messages from the Whatsapp group made the AfD look like a bunch of trigger-happy morons who get themselves ready for civil war and who want to abolish the freedom of the press first thing after taking power. Plus, the expulsion procedures against Björn Höcke are still ongoing.

3) The main issue in public consciousness this past week or two was gay marriage. 70% of the German population support it, the AfD opposes it. Granted, the majority of the AfD's base happens to oppose legalization of SSM, but not by huge margins (55% of the AfD's voters said they're opposed to it). The AfD has now announced their intention to file a complaint before the Federal Constitutional Court against the new gay marriage law. So, when it comes to the issue of gay marriage, they're running their election campaign with an unpopular position here.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #2447 on: July 02, 2017, 05:16:59 PM »

AfD will probably underperform
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #2448 on: July 03, 2017, 09:34:58 PM »

A lot of people seem to think that the AfD is the most successful post-WW2 party to the right of the CDU and CSU. What about this party, though? They had seats in the Bundestag from 1949 to 1960, and they even participated in governing coalitions.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2449 on: July 07, 2017, 06:51:03 AM »

As expected, the gay marriage vote didn't have an impact on voting intentions ...

New polls today for the ARD and ZDF:





---

There are also 2 new federal polls out for the population-rich southern states of Bayern and BW and they are in line with the national polling results:



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