German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I doubt Merkel will seek a grand coalition again. It looks like she might go for a Jamaica Coalition

I think she'll only need the Greens.

But doesn't she prefer FDP?

Only officially. Merkel has never been a conservative. She only became a member of the CDU because Kohl was at the helm during Reunification.
Her political views bear much more resemblance to the Greens than to the FDP.

Huh ok that makes sense, but wouldn't the more conservative elements of the CDU/CSU want her to go with the FDP?

Of course. But she will be lucky and happy if a black-yellow coalition doesn't get enough votes. Furthermore there has been a strong black-green movement for over twenty years call "pizza connection" making the case for a black-green coalition. It's named after a meeting of various CDU and Green politicians, including Hermann Gröhe, Armin Laschet, Peter Altmaier, Ronald Pofalla, Julia Klöckner, Kristina Köhler, and on part of the Greens Katrin Göring-Eckardt, Cem Özdemir, Volker Beck, in the Italian restaurant Sassella in Bonn in 1995.

Pofalla and Altmaier later become Merkel's Head of the Federal Chancellery and the former was also her party's Secretary General. I think that says a lot about Merkel.

[TheSaint250]

I doubt Merkel will seek a grand coalition again. It looks like she might go for a Jamaica Coalition

I think she'll only need the Greens.

But doesn't she prefer FDP?

Only officially. Merkel has never been a conservative. She only became a member of the CDU because Kohl was at the helm during Reunification.
Her political views bear much more resemblance to the Greens than to the FDP.

Huh ok that makes sense, but wouldn't the more conservative elements of the CDU/CSU want her to go with the FDP?

Of course. But she will be lucky and happy if a black-yellow coalition doesn't get enough votes. Furthermore there has been a strong black-green movement for over twenty years call "pizza connection" making the case for a black-green coalition. It's named after a meeting of various CDU and Green politicians, including Hermann Gröhe, Armin Laschet, Peter Altmaier, Ronald Pofalla, Julia Klöckner, Kristina Köhler, and on part of the Greens Katrin Göring-Eckardt, Cem Özdemir, Volker Beck, in the Italian restaurant Sassella in Bonn in 1995.

Pofalla and Altmaier later become Merkel's Head of the Federal Chancellery and the former was also her party's Secretary General. I think that says a lot about Merkel.

Ok thanks

It will be interesting to see what happens after this election

[Leftbehind]

Why is Die Linke doing so badly?

8% is fairly normal for DL?

[_]

1st:  How did Schulz completely collapse?
2nd:  Will AFD, FDP, The Greens, or Die Linke win the race for third?
3rd:   Is there a scenario in which CDU/CSU, FDP, and The Greens combined can't form a government?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

1st:  How did Schulz completely collapse?
2nd:  Will AFD, FDP, The Greens, or Die Linke win the race for third?
3rd:   Is there a scenario in which CDU, FDP, and The Greens combined can't form a government?

1st:  Actually, he didn't collapse. It was just a short rearing up because something allegedly new surfaced in the media, and now he's still over Gabriel's level of polling.

2nd:  No clue, but I'd say AfD.

3rd:  You mean numerically? No.

[_]

1st:  How did Schulz completely collapse?
2nd:  Will AFD, FDP, The Greens, or Die Linke win the race for third?
3rd:   Is there a scenario in which CDU, FDP, and The Greens combined can't form a government?

1st:  Actually, he didn't collapse. It was just a short rearing up because something allegedly new surfaced in the media, and now he's still over Gabriel's level of polling.

2nd:  No clue, but I'd say AfD.

3rd:  You mean CDU/CSU? No.

Reasoning for AfD?  Polls in Austria, France, and Netherlands all overestimated the Far-Right party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

1st:  How did Schulz completely collapse?
2nd:  Will AFD, FDP, The Greens, or Die Linke win the race for third?
3rd:   Is there a scenario in which CDU, FDP, and The Greens combined can't form a government?

1st:  Actually, he didn't collapse. It was just a short rearing up because something allegedly new surfaced in the media, and now he's still over Gabriel's level of polling.

2nd:  No clue, but I'd say AfD.

3rd:  You mean CDU/CSU? No.

Reasoning for AFD?  Polls in Austria, France, and Netherlands all overestimated the Far-Right party.

I think it's because the AfD (with a lower case f) is simply different from all the other parties.
Plus, the left-wing terroristic violence at the G20 summit and the same-sex marriage bill could have a marked effect on the right-wing populist movement.

[_]

1st:  How did Schulz completely collapse?
2nd:  Will AFD, FDP, The Greens, or Die Linke win the race for third?
3rd:   Is there a scenario in which CDU, FDP, and The Greens combined can't form a government?

1st:  Actually, he didn't collapse. It was just a short rearing up because something allegedly new surfaced in the media, and now he's still over Gabriel's level of polling.

2nd:  No clue, but I'd say AfD.

3rd:  You mean CDU/CSU? No.

Reasoning for AFD?  Polls in Austria, France, and Netherlands all overestimated the Far-Right party.

I think it's because the AfD (with a lower case f) is simply different from all the other parties.
Plus, the left-wing terroristic violence at the G20 summit and the same-sex marriage bill could have a marked effect on the right-wing populist movement.

Anarchism at home probably does help AfD, and a small number of disaffected social conservatives may vote AFD as a protest against Merkel.

[TheSaint250]

I think AfD will underperform following the recent trend despite the protests. Then again all of my predictions have been wrong since brexit. They were:

-No Brexit
-Clinton victory
-PVV getting 1st place (The Netherlands)
-Le Pen getting 40% or more of the vote (France)
-Estes would win by more than he did (KS-04)
-Quist win (MT-AL)
-Conservative majority (UK)
-Ossoff win (GA-06)
-Norman would win by more than he did (SC-05)

I'm 0 for 9. On my record, AfD might come in first or something crazy.

[_]

I think AfD will underperform following the recent trend despite the protests. Then again all of my predictions have been wrong since brexit. They were:

-No Brexit
-Clinton victory
-PVV getting 1st place (The Netherlands)
-Le Pen getting 40% or more of the vote (France)
-Estes would win by more than he did (KS-04)
-Quist win (MT-AL)
-Conservative majority (UK)
-Ossoff win (GA-06)
-Norman would win by more than he did (SC-05)

I'm 0 for 9. On my record, AfD might come in first or something crazy.

If Merkel makes some sort of vague promise to the right AFD can underperform, like how Rutte won because he tacked to the right on the last couple days and had that spat with Turkey.

[TheSaint250]

I think AfD will underperform following the recent trend despite the protests. Then again all of my predictions have been wrong since brexit. They were:

-No Brexit
-Clinton victory
-PVV getting 1st place (The Netherlands)
-Le Pen getting 40% or more of the vote (France)
-Estes would win by more than he did (KS-04)
-Quist win (MT-AL)
-Conservative majority (UK)
-Ossoff win (GA-06)
-Norman would win by more than he did (SC-05)

I'm 0 for 9. On my record, AfD might come in first or something crazy.

If Merkel makes some sort of vague promise to the right AFD can underperform, like how Rutte won because he tacked to the right on the last couple days and had that spat with Turkey.

Yeah that would probably be her best bet, but it seems like she wouldn't do it. Tacking somewhat left is what's keeping from swing voters from jumping ship

[Beezer]

I think the AfD could recover to come in third. Earlier this year when it appeared that the CDU and SPD were engaged in a neck-and-neck battle for first place, plenty of potential AfD-voters may have felt compelled to vote for Merkel after all in order to prevent a red-red-green coalition (or perhaps some of them migrated back to the SPD). Now that Merkel is all but assured another term, I'd say a good chunk of these voters could ultimately vote AfD in light of the fact that neither Merkel nor Schulz really need their vote as all signs point to another Grand Coalition with virtually the same vote share as in 2013.

Schulz is also beginning to focus on the topic of refugees as a campaign issue which should only further help the AfD.

[Beezer]

1st:  How did Schulz completely collapse?

I'll quote a comment of mine from February:

Keep in mind though that historically the SPD has always polled at least in the 30s in German elections so the pre-Schulz low 20s polling numbers were themselves the anomaly and what we are seeing now is very much a reversion to the historic pattern

Who cares about history though when your last 2 election results look like this:

2013: 25.7
2009: 23.0

Moreover the last time the SPD polled consistently in the low 30s (i.e. 32% or more) was about a decade ago:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/2006.htm
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/2007.htm

If I had to wager some money on whether the SPD was going to get either 20 or 30% of the vote, I'd definitely be more comfortable placing a bet on the former. The SPD's problem (and I suppose this applies to most socdems) has been that it's not really the first choice for any particular segment of society anymore. Left-leaning people with a university degree and a home in the suburbs can opt for the Greens or more recently the Merkel-CDU as well. People in their 20s who dream of smashing globalization are also more at home in the Left Party or the Greens while the working class/precariat prefers the Left or now the AfD. All of those people could see themselves as SPD-voters as well I suppose but ultimately the SPD's message has become so diluted that it's not surprising the party has recently come in third or even fourth in state elections. Maybe a fresh face like Schulz can provide a bit of a bounce in the short term but the broader trend behind the SPD's demise will take more than a eurocrat to reverse - if that's even possible in this day and age.

The German Social Democrats are a 25% party. Not much more, with the potential for further losses IMO significantly bigger than that of any noteworthy gains.

[DavidB.]

Schulz is also beginning to focus on the topic of refugees as a campaign issue which should only further help the AfD.

Is he positioning the SPD to the right of the CDU on this issue?

[Beezer]

Somewhat. He has said that the EU needs to lessen Italy's burden by relocating migrants and refugees to the rest of the EU. He has at the same time excluded Germany from thid scheme though, arguing it has done enough for the time being. Talk about having your cake and eating it as well...

Source: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/martin-schulz-will-fluechtlinge-zum-wahlkampfthema-machen-a-1159280.html

[DavidB.]

Somewhat. He has said that the EU needs to lessen Italy's burden by relocating migrants and refugees to the rest of the EU. He has at the same time excluded Germany from thid scheme though, arguing it has done enough for the time being. Talk about having your cake and eating it as well...

Source: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/martin-schulz-will-fluechtlinge-zum-wahlkampfthema-machen-a-1159280.html

Doesn't the CDU support such a relocation scheme as well? I thought this was a common position held by most mainstream parties nowadays. If all EU countries are included it is obvious that Germany, Sweden and the Southern European member states would "benefit" the most.

(Of course I oppose this because I don't think other EU countries should carry the burden of Merkel's invitation, but I'm not exactly in the majority here.)

[Beezer]

I think the difference may be that Schulz has explicitly stated Germany should accept no relocated migrants from Italy whereas Merkel has in the past offered some support and taken in (token numbers) of migrants.

Of course I wholeheartedly agree with you. The entire scheme is ridiculous and doomed to fail. You are sending refugees that don't want to be in Poland, Hungary and so forth to a part of the continent that doesn't want to host them either. And of course most migrants that have been relocated to EEurope turned up on Germany's door step a couple of weeks later. How some European politicians are incapable of understanding this basic flaw in their harebrained scheme this is quite frankly beyond me.

[palandio]

Schulz really lacks some basic political instincts. If he brings up an issue he should be able to say something slightly more precise and realistic than a para-phrased "We should take in refugees and force them down Poland's throat." This guy can't really disappoint me anymore, but he is constantly doing his best to do so.

[_]

1st:  How did Schulz completely collapse?

I'll quote a comment of mine from February:

Keep in mind though that historically the SPD has always polled at least in the 30s in German elections so the pre-Schulz low 20s polling numbers were themselves the anomaly and what we are seeing now is very much a reversion to the historic pattern

Who cares about history though when your last 2 election results look like this:

2013: 25.7
2009: 23.0

Moreover the last time the SPD polled consistently in the low 30s (i.e. 32% or more) was about a decade ago:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/2006.htm
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/2007.htm

If I had to wager some money on whether the SPD was going to get either 20 or 30% of the vote, I'd definitely be more comfortable placing a bet on the former. The SPD's problem (and I suppose this applies to most socdems) has been that it's not really the first choice for any particular segment of society anymore. Left-leaning people with a university degree and a home in the suburbs can opt for the Greens or more recently the Merkel-CDU as well. People in their 20s who dream of smashing globalization are also more at home in the Left Party or the Greens while the working class/precariat prefers the Left or now the AfD. All of those people could see themselves as SPD-voters as well I suppose but ultimately the SPD's message has become so diluted that it's not surprising the party has recently come in third or even fourth in state elections. Maybe a fresh face like Schulz can provide a bit of a bounce in the short term but the broader trend behind the SPD's demise will take more than a eurocrat to reverse - if that's even possible in this day and age.

The German Social Democrats are a 25% party. Not much more, with the potential for further losses IMO significantly bigger than that of any noteworthy gains.

So the SPD is essentially losing voters to the right and the left by not having a coherent message, and Schulz isn't doing anything to really fix it.

[Sozialliberal]

I doubt Merkel will seek a grand coalition again. It looks like she might go for a Jamaica Coalition

I think she'll only need the Greens.

But doesn't she prefer FDP?

Only officially. Merkel has never been a conservative. She only became a member of the CDU because Kohl was at the helm during Reunification.
Her political views bear much more resemblance to the Greens than to the FDP.

Huh ok that makes sense, but wouldn't the more conservative elements of the CDU/CSU want her to go with the FDP?

Of course. But she will be lucky and happy if a black-yellow coalition doesn't get enough votes. Furthermore there has been a strong black-green movement for over twenty years call "pizza connection" making the case for a black-green coalition. It's named after a meeting of various CDU and Green politicians, including Hermann Gröhe, Armin Laschet, Peter Altmaier, Ronald Pofalla, Julia Klöckner, Kristina Köhler, and on part of the Greens Katrin Göring-Eckardt, Cem Özdemir, Volker Beck, in the Italian restaurant Sassella in Bonn in 1995.

Pofalla and Altmaier later become Merkel's Head of the Federal Chancellery and the former was also her party's Secretary General. I think that says a lot about Merkel.

Ok thanks

It will be interesting to see what happens after this election

I think black-yellow (CDU/CSU + FDP) is much more likely than black-green (CDU/CSU + Greens) now. The refugee crisis is not over yet and there's a state election in Bavaria next year. Forming a coalition with the Greens at federal level would be toxic for the CSU. Merkel, while probably preferring black-green to black-yellow secretly, is likely to go for black-yellow for tactical reasons. I think she knows that the CDU could lose too many votes to the AfD and the FDP in the next election if she prefers black-green to black-yellow.

[mvd10]

Are we really that sure Merkel would prefer the Greens over the FDP? I don't like her because I think she sold out too much, but we should remember her 2005 campaign which was pretty right-wing as far as I know. I think her pivot to the centre mainly was caused by electoral opportunism, so privately she probably still favors a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition.

[mgop]

either cdu-fdp or cdu-greens does not have majority and it's very unlikely to get one

[Tender Branson]

New ARD poll:



CDU/CSU-FDP tied with SPD-AfD-Left-Greens (48% vs. 48%)

CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP: 57%
SPD-Left-Greens: 39%

[TheSaint250]

Merkel will either have to side with the Greens or the AfD in addition to the FDP. Most likely greens first but to ensure a coalition she can't write off AfD completely

[MAINEiac4434]

Merkel will either have to side with the Greens or the AfD in addition to the FDP. Most likely greens first but to ensure a coalition she can't write off AfD completely

Merkel loathes AfD. She'd sooner form a new grand coalition than team up with them.