German Elections & Politics

[TheSaint250]

Merkel loathes AfD.

Yeah, she does, that's why I was thinking literally as an extreme

She'd sooner form a new grand coalition than team up with them.

Probably

[Tender Branson]

I still believe that in the end there will be a slight majority for CDU/CSU-FDP (like in the NRW state election) ...

No AfD or Green support needed.

[TheSaint250]

I still believe that in the end there will be a slight majority for CDU/CSU-FDP (like in the NRW state election) ...

No AfD or Green support needed.

Yeah, that's what I've been thinking/hoping for.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel loathes AfD.

Yeah, she does, that's why I was thinking literally as an extreme

She'd sooner form a new grand coalition than team up with them.

Probably

There's not gonna be a CDU-AfD coalition after this election. It's not that it is unlikely. It is impossible.

The CDU is definitely ruling it out. Acceptable coalition partners for the CDU are: FDP, SPD, and Greens. Unacceptable coalition partners for the CDU are: AfD and the Left.

Also, one of AfD's main political demands is basically that Merkel's Chancellorship must be ended. The AfD simply wants to enter the parliament for the first time and doesn't seek participation in any kind of coalition at this point. If the AfD leadership were to seek a coalition with Angela Merkel, they'd probably be quickly removed from their positions. There's a strong faction within the AfD that argues that the AfD should only enter governing coalitions with other parties provided they are the larger party in that coalition and can fill the position of head of government accordingly.

You have to understand that the AfD is basically the German equivalent to the US Republican Party, while CDU, SPD, FDP, and Greens are together constituting the German equivalent to the US Democratic Party. The rift between the AfD and the other parties is about as deep as the rift between the two parties in the US. Assuming that the AfD will form a coalition with the CDU after the election is like assuming that Democrats and Republicans are going to run a joint presidential  ticket in 2020.

[SNJ1985]

New ARD poll:



CDU/CSU-FDP tied with SPD-AfD-Left-Greens (48% vs. 48%)

CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP: 57%
SPD-Left-Greens: 39%

AfD back in third place. Nice!

[Dereich]

Good news, the Political Compass have decided to grace us with their interpretation for the upcoming election.




Besides the obvious, like the CSU being far to the left of CDU and Die Linke being far and away the most libertarian party, I'll point out that since last election apparently CDU and SDP have swung to the right and the greens have shifted WILDLY, moving from where Die Linke is now.

[TheSaint250]

Good news, the Political Compass have decided to grace us with their interpretation for the upcoming election.




Besides the obvious, like the CSU being far to the left of CDU and Die Linke being far and away the most libertarian party, I'll point out that since last election apparently CDU and SDP have swung to the right and the greens have shifted WILDLY, moving from where Die Linke is now.

Thank goodness! I don't know what I would do without the Political Compass's horribly inaccurate informative ideological placings of the parties.

[Middle-aged Europe]

and the greens have shifted WILDLY,

Well, this is what you get when you shift from supporting tax hikes for people with 60,000 € income per year (2013) to merely supporting tax hikes for people with 100,000 € income per year (2017). It marks the basic difference between socialism and conservatism. The line between the two ideologies probably lies exactly at 80,000 €.

[parochial boy]

I mean, Merkel's position on asylum seekers obviously marks her out as a massive authoritarian guys...

[mgop]

I mean, Merkel's position on asylum seekers obviously marks her out as a massive authoritarian guys...

well her position on gay marriage does. i love how liberals didn't say anything when their queen merkel was against gay marriage, but when trump ban transsexuals from army, they got triggered so hard lol

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's clear that PC didn't really understand the greens in their previous compasses, viewing them as equivalent to he English or American equivalents, and they've had to abruptly change as someone finally informed them op that they were nimrods.

[MAINEiac4434]

I mean, Merkel's position on asylum seekers obviously marks her out as a massive authoritarian guys...

well her position on gay marriage does. i love how liberals didn't say anything when their queen merkel was against gay marriage, but when trump ban transsexuals from army, they got triggered so hard lol

Yeah, but Merkel never tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/742771576039460864?lang=en

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's clear that PC didn't really understand the greens in their previous compasses, viewing them as equivalent to he English or American equivalents, and they've had to abruptly change as someone finally informed them op that they were nimrods.

I disagree. I probably understand why the Greens have moved in the Compass, although I find the extent as to which they moved a bit too extreme.

Back in 2013, the German Greens did indeed run on a decidedly leftist platform, because in that election year the Leftist wing of the party also happened to be politically dominant one. But then the Greens' election result turned out to be disappointment and the Leftist wing was accused of having fumbled the ball with their platform. Subsequently, the "Realo" wing became dominant and currently the Green party is running on a more centrist platform. However, current polling numbers (right now at 8% on average) still do not significantly differ from the Greens' last election result (8.4%). So maybe the Realos will have to take the blame this time around, and the party possibly shifts more to the left again after this election.

That's because a simple shift to the center hasn't solved the party's root problem in any way. And the root problem - in my opinion - is that the Greens do not operate as a single, unified party, but as a de facto coalition of two distinct political parties.... the Leftist wing of the Greens which is kind of  a "SPD-crossed-with-Left-Party, but with stronger ecologial orientation", and the centrist Realo wing which is kind of a "SPD-crossed-with- the-CDU, but with stronger ecological orientation". Problem is, that divide is not only represented in the party's leadership and membership, but in my experience it can also be found in the party's electorate.

An example which maybe manages to illustrates this better is the fact that there is a not an insignificant number of potential Green voters who often seem to be expressing the opinion; "the fact that you're not ruling out a coalition with SPD+Left Party / CDU+FDP (depends on which wing of the Greens the voter in question adheres to) means that I can't vote for you any longer".

That's a structural problem that can't be really solved at the moment if you won't dissolve the party altogether. But if you split the Greens you'll have two parties which win 4% of the vote each and do not manage to make it to the parliament any longer. Maybe you're thinking now "so, why don't the Leftists join the Left Party/SPD and the Realos the CDU/SPD then?" Well, at the the end of the day the Realos still prefer to the deal with the Leftists within their party rather than with the average CDU member. The feeling's probably mutual in the side of the Green leftists with regards to the Left Party. And why is that? The Green realos don't like the social conservatives in the CDU, and the Green leftists don't like the Castro admirers/GDR apologists within the Left Party. And both wings happen to dislike the SPD because it's too pro-coal. So maintaining the status quo seems like the least bad option for everybody.

In my opinion, the Greens desperately need to strengthen their own "center" (which basically would be sort of a SPD with less coal and more ecology, I guess) instead of perpetuating their own divide. However, the rift within the party is perpetuated by the fact that the Greens always have two co-chair(wo)men. Officially, that's to guarantee gender quality. Unofficially, it has become a way to guarantee that each of the two wings have at least one chairperson of their own. In practice, this too often leads to two chairpeople who don't act as leaders of the party as a whole, but as the leader of their respective wing. Which in turn leads to a competitive dynamic between the two leaders, with members of the party pledging at least covert allegiance to one of the two.

So, as you can see, it's a complex, f**ked up situation. But I guess other political parties have their problems too.

[Leftbehind]

I note PC have DL as slightly to the right of British Labour, and in line the UK Green party? I haven't interrogated their policy platform, but that can't be right, surely? Labour were offering standard social democracy at the last election, unless they've ignored that in favour of the leadership/cabinet's actual views, which are much more socialist.

Are DL as Eurosceptic as Mélenchon and Corbyn? I wonder if that drags them to centre in this ranking. 

[parochial boy]

That's a structural problem that can't be really solved at the moment if you won't dissolve the party altogether. But if you split the Greens you'll have two parties which win 4% of the vote each and do not manage to make it to the parliament any longer. Maybe you're thinking now "so, why don't the Leftists join the Left Party/SPD and the Realos the CDU/SPD then?" Well, at the the end of the day the Realos still prefer to the deal with the Leftists within their party rather than with the average CDU member. The feeling's probably mutual in the side of the Green leftists with regards to the Left Party. And why is that? The Green realos don't like the social conservatives in the CDU, and the Green leftists don't like the Castro admirers/GDR apologists within the Left Party. And both wings happen to dislike the SPD because it's too pro-coal. So maintaining the status quo seems like the least bad option for everybody.

As a sort of comparison, the Swiss Green party did actually split between its liberal and leftist wings and the two parties combined do perform slightly better than the old unified version - so a split in the German party wouldn't necessarily mean a zero sum return.

Do you not feel that a strengthening of the Greens "centre" as you put it would effectively result in a party that struggles as voters struggle to distinguish it from the SPD?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Do you not feel that a strengthening of the Greens "centre" as you put it would effectively result in a party that struggles as voters struggle to distinguish it from the SPD?

No, not necessarily... because the SPD already is the party the Greens exchanges the most voters with back and forth. SPD and Greens can also be distinguished in the way that the SPD focuses primarily on social justice, and the Greens focus primarily on ecology.

[Lotuslander]

Election.de recently gave their forecast, as of July 24, 2017, for current constituencies/riding level outcomes both in terms of first and second place finishes.





What jumped out at me was the forecast 2nd place finishes for the AfD in 6 seats in the southwest state of Saxony mostly surrounding the Dresden region. OTOH, Die Linke seems to be the default 2nd place position in most other eastern German states along with the SPD.

And that begs the question. Why are AfD 2nd place positions all concentrated in Saxony and why AfD instead of Die Linke as elsewhere?

[palandio]

[...]

What jumped out at me was the forecast 2nd place finishes for the AfD in 6 seats in the southwest state of Saxony mostly surrounding the Dresden region. OTOH, Die Linke seems to be the default 2nd place position in most other eastern German states along with the SPD.

And that begs the question. Why are AfD 2nd place positions all concentrated in Saxony and why AfD instead of Die Linke as elsewhere?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tal_der_Ahnungslosen

A scientific study (Kern, Hainmueller, 2009) based on Stasi protocols states that not having access to Western information and entertainment (due to geographical distance) made people in Eastern Saxony and the German part of Pomerania less content with socialism. If you look on political maps these regions are the ones where CDU (and now also AfD) are particularly strong and Linke and SPD are particularly weak.

[jaichind]

Election.de recently gave their forecast, as of July 24, 2017, for current constituencies/riding level outcomes both in terms of first and second place finishes.

That would give CDU 214 CSU 45 SPD 35 Die Linke 4 and Greens 1.  For CDU that would beat 2013 wins of 191.  With both FPD and AfD crossing 5% this time would not this sort of results  should create overhang seats for CSU.  I think the rules now are that the other parties will not be compensated for the CSU overhang seats right ?

[Tender Branson]

Disturbing video:

https://www.facebook.com/ZDFheute/videos/1922995317983004

8000 Neo-Nazis meet in the state of Thüringen for a Right-Rock concert and a young female headscarf-wearing German-Lebanese ZDF journalist interviews the Nazis.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Election.de recently gave their forecast, as of July 24, 2017, for current constituencies/riding level outcomes both in terms of first and second place finishes.

That would give CDU 214 CSU 45 SPD 35 Die Linke 4 and Greens 1.

Which Green is supposed to win the direct seat according to election.de? Ströbele is not running again, and while he won district no. 83 quite overwhelmingly, his Green Party only came third in his constituency as to the second vote. Are they referring to Özdemir in Stuttgart I?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Election.de recently gave their forecast, as of July 24, 2017, for current constituencies/riding level outcomes both in terms of first and second place finishes.

That would give CDU 214 CSU 45 SPD 35 Die Linke 4 and Greens 1.

Which Green is supposed to win the direct seat according to election.de? Ströbele is not running again, and while he won district no. 83 quite overwhelmingly, his Green Party only came third in his constituency as to the second vote. Are they referring to Özdemir in Stuttgart I?

They're referring to Canan Bayram who's currently running to succeed Ströbele in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. While it will be harder for her to win the district, it's not entirely impossible.

Bayram is currently the directly elected state parliament MP from "Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 5". She won that district in 2006, 2011, and 2016 with 28%, then 32%, and then 34% of the vote. (The first time she ran as a SPD candidate, in 2011 and 2016 she stood for the Greens there.)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

They're referring to Canan Bayram who's currently running to succeed Ströbele in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. While it will be harder for her to win the district, it's not entirely impossible.

Bayram is currently the directly elected state parliament MP from "Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 5". She won that district in 2006, 2011, and 2016 with 28%, then 32%, and then 34% of the vote. (The first time she ran as a SPD candidate, in 2011 and 2016 she stood for the Greens there.)

Never heard of her. Never. Had you not written that she's a woman I would have thought she were a man.
I still think Özdemir has a better chance of winning a direct seat than that no-name.

[Middle-aged Europe]

They're referring to Canan Bayram who's currently running to succeed Ströbele in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. While it will be harder for her to win the district, it's not entirely impossible.

Bayram is currently the directly elected state parliament MP from "Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 5". She won that district in 2006, 2011, and 2016 with 28%, then 32%, and then 34% of the vote. (The first time she ran as a SPD candidate, in 2011 and 2016 she stood for the Greens there.)

Never heard of her. Never. Had you not written that she's a woman I would have thought she were a man.
I still think Özdemir has a better chance of winning a direct seat than that no-name.

The relevant question is how much of a no-name she is in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. People from outside her district can't vote for her and hence don't need to know her.

And I bet you never heard of Pascal Meiser and Cansel Kiziltepe either. Those are the Left and SPD candidates from that district.

In the 2016 state election, the Greens won four out of the five direct seats in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. So, you don't necessarily need to be a national celebrity to win a direct seat as a Green there.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The relevant question is how much of a no-name she is in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. People from outside her district can't vote for her and hence don't need to know her.

Touché! But how many voters know their congressmen? Many just checked the field with Ströbele's name which can be proved by a look at the second vote.