German Elections & Politics

[TheSaint250]

Also, for anyone, are the polls believeable in the Left being in third? I feel like FDP and AfD have a better chance of being third. Am I wrong on this?

[Tender Branson]

Also, for anyone, are the polls believeable in the Left being in third? I feel like FDP and AfD have a better chance of being third. Am I wrong on this?

I belive that the Left is seriously overpolled right now.

In the state elections this year, the Left did much worse than what their pre-election polls showed.

Also, if you look at the Wahlrecht.de site for state polls (for the federal elections), the Left loses significantly compared with 2013.

I think the AfD and Green poll numbers are correct and for the FDP we'll have to wait and see what happens after Barney Lindner's comments.

[TheSaint250]

Also, for anyone, are the polls believeable in the Left being in third? I feel like FDP and AfD have a better chance of being third. Am I wrong on this?

I belive that the Left is seriously overpolled right now.

In the state elections this year, the Left did much worse than what their pre-election polls showed.

Also, if you look at the Wahlrecht.de site for state polls (for the federal elections), the Left loses significantly compared with 2013.

I think the AfD and Green poll numbers are correct and for the FDP we'll have to wait and see what happens after Barney Lindner's comments.

Ok.

The third-place race is really interesting to watch

[palandio]

I cannot exclude that the Left is overpolled to a certain extent right now, but overall I would expect them to finish near their 2013 result (8.6%).

Western state elections have been a problem for the Left for quite some time, as has been the phenomenon of them being overpolled before Western state elections and then finishing under the 5% threashold. (I might even quote one of my own posts from before the NRW and Schleswig-Holstein elections saying exactly this.)

Polling federal elections on a regional level presents new challenges to pollsters. On a federal level they have perfected their magical soup that keeps their samples stable and representative, on a regional level they have more difficulties.

I think that the Left will lose significantly in the East (from 22.7% down to ca. 15-17%), which would mean slightly more than one percentage point less on the federal level.

In the West they will lose some voters and win some voters, the question is which group will be larger. The stereotypical new Left voter would be relatively young, often urban, culturally rather "progressive"/"alternative" and would come from the SPD, Pirates or Greens. Looking on recent election results in cities it is quite easy to spot this trend. Also with the rise of the AfD the Left has become less toxic to some leftish swing voters.

So do I say that the Left will get 10% because of all the new Berniecrats? No, not at all, they might as well get 7% or so. But what I wanted to say is that seeing the losses of the Left towards the immigration-sceptical right might cause you to overlook where the Left might actually make gains.

Also on Barney's comments: I don't expect it to have too much effect, also because de facto Steinmeier, Merkel and Gabriel don't hold a completely different position.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think that the Left will lose significantly in the East (from 22.7% down to ca. 15-17%), which would mean slightly more than one percentage point less on the federal level.

In the West they will lose some voters and win some voters, the question is which group will be larger. The stereotypical new Left voter would be relatively young, often urban, culturally rather "progressive"/"alternative" and would come from the SPD, Pirates or Greens. Looking on recent election results in cities it is quite easy to spot this trend. Also with the rise of the AfD the Left has become less toxic to some leftish swing voters.

So do I say that the Left will get 10% because of all the new Berniecrats? No, not at all, they might as well get 7% or so. But what I wanted to say is that seeing the losses of the Left towards the immigration-sceptical right might cause you to overlook where the Left might actually make gains.

The rise of the AfD in East Germany to the detriment of the Left reminds me somehow of the demise of the Democratic Party in the Deep South...

[redbeard]

Hi, as an actual member of Die Linke maybe my (slightly biased) insights might be helpful. Today we put up election posters in the West-Berlin neighbourhood of Moabit. We had quite some positive feedback there especially from people with immigrant background and young people. I think we are going to gain some votes there. On the other hand we are going to lose some votes in the east, to the AfD and also because the old party members and supporters there are slowly dying off.
In the end I think we will get between 8-10% if nothing major happens.
Sorry for being a long-time lurker...

[FrancoAgo]

No, that shows a sophisticated understanding of the German political system and its inherent anti-democratic disadvantages.

The non direct elections of executives is the most democratic method, in a separation of powers system

[Zinneke]

Hi, as an actual member of Die Linke maybe my (slightly biased) insights might be helpful. Today we put up election posters in the West-Berlin neighbourhood of Moabit. We had quite some positive feedback there especially from people with immigrant background and young people. I think we are going to gain some votes there. On the other hand we are going to lose some votes in the east, to the AfD and also because the old party members and supporters there are slowly dying off.
In the end I think we will get between 8-10% if nothing major happens.
Sorry for being a long-time lurker...

Welcome to the forum! Good luck with the campaign.

[Beezer]

I think the AfD and Green poll numbers are correct and for the FDP we'll have to wait and see what happens after Barney Lindner's comments.

Nobody really gives a crap about Crimea so I doubt these comments will move the needle.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think the AfD and Green poll numbers are correct and for the FDP we'll have to wait and see what happens after Barney Lindner's comments.

Nobody really gives a crap about Crimea so I doubt these comments will move the needle.

I wonder if Scooter's Crimea crime (sorry for the pun) will become a political issue.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

No, that shows a sophisticated understanding of the German political system and its inherent anti-democratic disadvantages.

The non direct elections of executives is the most democratic method, in a separation of powers system

No. Period.

[Bumaye]

Average age of members of the 8 largest parties: 
 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lower Saxony early election set for October 15.

[Tender Branson]

Lower Saxony early election set for October 15.

Super Sunday !

... with both elections very likely resulting in big conservative wins.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Lower Saxony early election set for October 15.

Super Sunday !

... with both elections very likely resulting in big conservative wins.

I wonder which election will arouse more attention in the foreign media.

[Yeahsayyeah]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There were polls in the middle of june by state done for the regional television mdr by infratest dimap

Saxony

CDU: 46%
AfD: 18%
Linke: 14%
SPD: 11%
FDP: 5%
Greens: 3%
Others: 3%

Saxony-Anhalt

CDU: 45
Linke: 17
SPD: 14
AfD: 11
FDP: 6
Greens: 4
Others: 3

Thuringia

CDU: 43
Linke: 20
SPD: 12
AfD: 12
FDP: 5
Greens: 4
Others: 2

There is a newer INSA poll for Thuringia that gives a different picture

CDU: 39
Linke: 18
AfD: 18
SPD: 14
FDP: 5
Greens: 4

The AfD finishing second in some "rural" districts in Saxony is what one would expect with these numbers, but the CDU will win them huge anyway and the margin from the AfD to the others would be slim. I'm not that sure about the exact districts. There haven't been strong rural patterns in the AfD, SPD and Left vote, despite the urban-rural divide (which has been more of a CDU vs. Left/SPD/Green divide than a divide for the AfD in 2013). And there haven't been district candidates for the AfD.

 Bautzen and Görlitz are no-brainers. Meißen and Sächsische-Schweiz-Osterzgebirge could differe between well-off suburbs and the periphery, but have DSU heritage and all. Mittelsachsen seems culturally more likely for me than the Erzgebirge, but that's more gut feeling

I don't think it will be in the district which comprises mostly of Dresden north of the Elbe - which is around 80% of the districts electorate, and some suburbs. The Dresden parts are either "left-alternative (Neustadt, Hechtviertel), socially Mixed "Gründerzeit" quarters (Pieschen) ore well of (Weißer Hirsch), so probably no AfD-fortresses, the attached communities of the Bautzen district don't seem big enough to put them in second place

Of course, it is hard to extrapolate regional and local patterns with a change of the vote percentage from 7 to 18 percent for one party

[Tender Branson]

First Niedersachsen poll since the early state election was announced for Oct. 15:



49-49 tie between CDU/FDP vs. SPD/Greens/AfD/Left

Changes compared with 2013 state election:

CDU: +4%
SPD: -5%
Greens: -5%
FDP: -1%
Left: +2%
AfD: +7%
Others: -2%

[palandio]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There were polls in the middle of june by state done for the regional television mdr by infratest dimap

Saxony

CDU: 46%
AfD: 18%
Linke: 14%
SPD: 11%
FDP: 5%
Greens: 3%
Others: 3%

[...]

The AfD finishing second in some "rural" districts in Saxony is what one would expect with these numbers, but the CDU will win them huge anyway and the margin from the AfD to the others would be slim. I'm not that sure about the exact districts. There haven't been strong rural patterns in the AfD, SPD and Left vote, despite the urban-rural divide (which has been more of a CDU vs. Left/SPD/Green divide than a divide for the AfD in 2013). And there haven't been district candidates for the AfD.

 Bautzen and Görlitz are no-brainers. Meißen and Sächsische-Schweiz-Osterzgebirge could differe between well-off suburbs and the periphery, but have DSU heritage and all. Mittelsachsen seems culturally more likely for me than the Erzgebirge, but that's more gut feeling

I don't think it will be in the district which comprises mostly of Dresden north of the Elbe - which is around 80% of the districts electorate, and some suburbs. The Dresden parts are either "left-alternative (Neustadt, Hechtviertel), socially Mixed "Gründerzeit" quarters (Pieschen) ore well of (Weißer Hirsch), so probably no AfD-fortresses, the attached communities of the Bautzen district don't seem big enough to put them in second place

Of course, it is hard to extrapolate regional and local patterns with a change of the vote percentage from 7 to 18 percent for one party

election.de has a relatively weak track record when it comes to predicting local AfD strength (see e.g. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern where they saw some potential AfD seats in Rostock and Schwerin but missed out on some of the Vorpommern seats).

In my opinion if the Infratest dimap data were the results on election day, i.e. SPD 11%, Linke 14%, AfD 18%, then the AfD has good chances to get the second place in almost all rural constituencies of Saxony, particularly the Eastern ones. And then after the rural constituencies the AfD might also place second in Dresden II-Bautzen II, not because of its genuine strength there, but because a three-way tie between AfD, Linke and SPD at ca. 12-14% with relatively strong Greens at ca. 7-8% would be very plausible and then it can go either way.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

A couple of new federal polls released yesterday.....

Forsa:
CDU/CSU - 40% (NC)
SPD - 23% (+1)
Greens - 8% (NC)
The Left - 8% (NC)
AfD - 8% (NC)
FDP - 7% (-1)
Others - 6% (NC)

Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU - 39% (-1)
SPD - 24% (+1)
The Left - 9% (+1)
AfD - 8% (-1)
Greens - 8% (NC)
FDP - 8% (NC)
Others - 4% (NC)

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU seems to be heading for a landslide and nobody can do anything about it.

[Tender Branson]

CDU seems to be heading for a landslide and nobody can do anything about it.

It's the economy, stupid ... (in Germany's case, a good one).

[Beezer]

Not that Merkel has contributed anything to that...

But yeah most people feel that there is no need to change anything. What a boring election campaign it's been thus far. No one is actually addressing any of the noteworthy issues (migration, Europe etc.).

[Bumaye]

What a boring election campaign it's been thus far.

 
 
So much this. It's really easy to forget that the election is in 6 weeks because there is hardly any discussions. Everyone knows the Merkelnator will win another election in a landslide and nobody is discussing actual topics.

[parochial boy]

Once Merkel goes, and (assuming) CDU bounce back to the right, is there any chance of German politics opening up again?

[palandio]

Once Merkel goes, and (assuming) CDU bounce back to the right, is there any chance of German politics opening up again?

I would be tempted to say yes, but the way in which you are phrasing the question implies certain assumptions that cannot taken for granted.

1. You are implying that for German politics to open up again Merkel needs to go first. Merkel might seem invincible at the moment, but there are other examples of politicians who lost elections after a long time in power (e.g. Kohl). "How?" is of course a good question. But the short-lived Schulz hype has shown that many voter want a new face and voter fatigue could at some point translate into votes for the other side.

2. You are implying that the current state of German politics is a result of where the parties stand in the left-right spectrum. I think that for now the upcoming election is about two major issues and neither fits into the left-right narrative:
a) (already in 2013) The world and Europe being in crisis, but Germany being relatively fine, at least for the moment and compared to the others. Then it's logical to vote for the status quo and for the person who embodies it, independent from left and right.
b) Immigration. On the issue of immigration there is no majority to the left of Angela Merkel. Immigration is a losing issue for the center-left. On the other hand the right-wing opposition (AfD) has failed to offer more than radical rhetorics and anti-establishment protest, and for why that is not enough in Germany, see a).

3. So will there be an opening? Quite likely at some point in the future because:
a) The CDU while holding the chancellorship has been notoriously bad at power transitions on the federal level (see Adenauer, Kohl). Merkel has for a long time been very succesful in eliminating all potential rivals, which might eventually bite the CDU in the back. The CDU is the party of the chancellor and when the chancellor is gone, it is an empty hull until it rebounds.
b) The issues will eventually change and the key issues might again favor the center-left.