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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655327 times)
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2750 on: September 14, 2017, 02:44:25 AM »

BREAKING NEWS

The leaders of each Bundestag faction have agreed on extending the four-years legislative periods to five years. The bill to change the length of a term is expected to be passed in the next session of the Bundestag and is to become effective after the 2021 election.

TL;DR: AfD +10%
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Beezer
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« Reply #2751 on: September 14, 2017, 11:34:38 AM »

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Boomer sooner
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« Reply #2752 on: September 14, 2017, 11:51:56 AM »

I did not expect an AFD resurgence. What happened? It doesn't look like cdu voters are going to them. Are there a bunch of SPD AFD swing voters? It doesn't look like the left is getting the same bump
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2753 on: September 14, 2017, 12:27:24 PM »

I did not expect an AFD resurgence. What happened? It doesn't look like cdu voters are going to them. Are there a bunch of SPD AFD swing voters? It doesn't look like the left is getting the same bump
 
 
It's a swing from "My god, maybe we can really get rid of Merkel!" back to " it, she is unbeatable, at least let's send a message by voting for the AfD". 
 
I don't know, of course I don't want a strong AfD but seeing the SPD crash and burn would be funny at least.
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mvd10
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« Reply #2754 on: September 14, 2017, 12:29:34 PM »

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.
too many #hottakes about how Marine Le Pen was the real left winger Tongue

It's a shame because I liked the comment of some R-XX guy saying that with Fillon doing badly the French Right should look for up and coming patriotic figures or something and cited Jean-François Copé as an example...that was a genuinely funny post.

Wasn't that Kingpoleon? I remember asking for potential future LR candidates and he responded with naming some people of which even I knew that just wasn't going to happen (I believe he even cited Dupont-Aignan, but I'm not sure). It also could have been someone else though.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #2755 on: September 14, 2017, 12:31:12 PM »


Schulz btfo.

(Also AFD surge, it appears the fact that Schulz is becoming completely irrelevant is helping AFD, yay.)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2756 on: September 14, 2017, 12:34:28 PM »

Also: 36.5% for Red-Darkred-Green must be an all-time-low.

CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP meanwhile are close to 60%.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2757 on: September 14, 2017, 01:06:49 PM »

I did not expect an AFD resurgence. What happened? It doesn't look like cdu voters are going to them. Are there a bunch of SPD AFD swing voters? It doesn't look like the left is getting the same bump

Hope this helps:



40% say: The AfD doesn't fix any problems, but calls things as they are.
40% also say: The AfD exists to change the government's asylum policy.
21% say: I'd approve of the AfD entering the Bundestag.
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Boomer sooner
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« Reply #2758 on: September 14, 2017, 01:21:47 PM »

Thanks. It looks like Germany will have all the major modern positions represented in the budestag. The far right, moderate conservatives, liberal-libertarians, social democrats, environmental left and far left all will make it. I'm opposed to the extreme parties but it is good to see some genuine diversity and competiveness. At least compared to the US. I maintain my belief that the German system is the best legislative one in the world.
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #2759 on: September 14, 2017, 01:35:52 PM »

The SPD really needs to revise its strategy after this election because it obviously isn't a winning strategy. The FDP, as much as I dislike its current incarnation, did that after they dropped out in 2013 and they're now back on track. They actually didn't change all that much: More focus on digital policy and education, being more hipsterish in communicating their message. It worked for them. However, the SPD can't simply copy that. They have to find their own way. Preferably, they'll do that while they're in opposition. Because when they're busy with governing, they have less time to reform their own party.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #2760 on: September 14, 2017, 03:14:38 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2017, 03:20:24 PM by ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ »

Isn't it a bit self-evident that a party that has been in coalitions with the government for the majority of this past decade, and is going into the election as one, isn't going to convincingly argue they're the vehicle for change? That consensus seemed to be best shown within the debates, where there was mockery on how often the two leaders agreed.

I welcome Schulz's support for a Red-Green government, and his focus within the campaign, but I think until the SPD are out of government they will not be able to land the punches and channel the public disquiet and are left languishing.

It is a shame it's going to AFD, but not in the least bit surprising.
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parochial boy
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2761 on: September 14, 2017, 03:37:16 PM »

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.
too many #hottakes about how Marine Le Pen was the real left winger Tongue

It's a shame because I liked the comment of some R-XX guy saying that with Fillon doing badly the French Right should look for up and coming patriotic figures or something and cited Jean-François Copé as an example...that was a genuinely funny post.

Wasn't that Kingpoleon? I remember asking for potential future LR candidates and he responded with naming some people of which even I knew that just wasn't going to happen (I believe he even cited Dupont-Aignan, but I'm not sure). It also could have been someone else though.
Well to be fair, no-one would have predicted that Flanby would win a second term; and that's basically what happened...
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Zinneke
JosepBroz
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« Reply #2762 on: September 14, 2017, 03:41:14 PM »

Did a prominent AfD member really just say that the Germans should be proud of what they did in both World Wars?

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2017/09/14/afd---wees-fier-op-wat-duitse-soldaten-deden-in-de-twee-wereldoo/

(sorry could only find dutch)

Also, what kind of scores have the FDP achieved in East Germany in the past? Have they ever had a real surge in support there?

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.
too many #hottakes about how Marine Le Pen was the real left winger Tongue

It's a shame because I liked the comment of some R-XX guy saying that with Fillon doing badly the French Right should look for up and coming patriotic figures or something and cited Jean-François Copé as an example...that was a genuinely funny post.

Wasn't that Kingpoleon? I remember asking for potential future LR candidates and he responded with naming some people of which even I knew that just wasn't going to happen (I believe he even cited Dupont-Aignan, but I'm not sure). It also could have been someone else though.
Well to be fair, no-one would have predicted that Flanby would win a second term; and that's basically what happened...

I´m not sure it was Kingpoleon, it had a Florida flair I think...
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #2763 on: September 14, 2017, 03:57:14 PM »

Well to be fair, no-one would have predicted that Flanby would win a second term; and that's basically what happened...

...? What are you referring to here?
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2764 on: September 14, 2017, 04:08:34 PM »

Well to be fair, no-one would have predicted that Flanby would win a second term; and that's basically what happened...

...? What are you referring to here?

Certain misinformed left wing wags might be tempted to claim that, from a policy perspective, Macron's presidency is merely a continuation of Hollande's,but with a different face.

A flanby is a sort of pudding that has custard at the top and caramel at the bottom.
Like this:
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2765 on: September 14, 2017, 04:19:04 PM »

Did a prominent AfD member really just say that the Germans should be proud of what they did in both World Wars?

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2017/09/14/afd---wees-fier-op-wat-duitse-soldaten-deden-in-de-twee-wereldoo/

Yes, Gauland did.

Also, what kind of scores have the FDP achieved in East Germany in the past? Have they ever had a real surge in support there?

The FDP used to be quite successful in Saxony-Anhalt because of Hans-Dietrich Genscher's birthplace Halle; he was so popular there that an FDP politician, Uwe Lühr, could win a direct seat - in the Halle district - the last one for that party in the whole of Germany. In 1990, they received 13.5% in the Landtag election and in 2002 they got 13.3%.

Best results for the FDP for each East German state in a Landtag election:

Saxony: 10.0% in 2009 (The SPD received 10.4% in that election. ROFL)
Thuringia: 9.3% in 1990
Brandenburg: 7.2% in 2009
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 5.5% in 1990
Berlin (after Reunification): 9.9% in 2001

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Leftbehind
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« Reply #2766 on: September 14, 2017, 04:19:24 PM »

Oh, I knew the dessert and the politician it referred to - I suppose I just see Macron's Frankenstein monster appreciably different to PS at its worst. Left-wing wags you say...
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parochial boy
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« Reply #2767 on: September 14, 2017, 04:22:43 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2017, 04:30:04 PM by parochial boy »


Joe Cole's wife.

I'll stop now

(But in many respects, for example, the labour reforms Macron is trying to push through are actually less bad than the loi el khomri would have been. Macron may be a convinced liberal where Hollande wasn't one; but Hollande's liberal turn bears a huge responsibility for the mess the French left is currently in, and it is Hollande after all, who made Macron his economy minister and set him up to be where he is)
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #2768 on: September 14, 2017, 05:40:21 PM »

Absolutely - but the regrettable liberal influence over a PS at its worst is altogether different from a vehicle that offers nothing but those liberals.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2769 on: September 14, 2017, 08:13:10 PM »

The SPD really needs to revise its strategy after this election because it obviously isn't a winning strategy. The FDP, as much as I dislike its current incarnation, did that after they dropped out in 2013 and they're now back on track. They actually didn't change all that much: More focus on digital policy and education, being more hipsterish in communicating their message. It worked for them. However, the SPD can't simply copy that. They have to find their own way. Preferably, they'll do that while they're in opposition. Because when they're busy with governing, they have less time to reform their own party.
 
 
Remember when in 2009 the SPD lost a third of their voters and landed in the opposition? What changed back then in the party? Absolutely nothing.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2770 on: September 15, 2017, 02:40:22 AM »

Here is the complete list of my Wahl-O-Mat series.
It'd be nice if y'all could participate in it, especially in the latest questions since there has been a mysteriously sharp decline in voters lately. :-

Questions 1-3: counter-terrorism/diesel taxation/refugee limit 37 voters
Questions 4-6: renewable energy/public housing/BAföG 27 voters
Questions 7-9: video surveillance/Greece/speed limit 27 voters
Questions 10-12: defense budget/fake news/organic farming 25 voters
Questions 13-15: child benefits/employment contracts/vaccination 24 voters
Questions 16-18: banks/the Holocaust/budget surplus 30 voters
Questions 19-21: farm animals/lignite mining/subcontracted labor 25 voters
Questions 22-24: dual citizenship/pensionable age/Deutschmark 18 voters
Questions 25-27: female quota/capital tax/defense of infancy 14 voters
Questions 28-30: health insurance/right-wing extremism/real estate tax 18 voters
Questions 31-33: arms exports/cannabis/solidary pact II 12 voters
Questions 34-36: integration of refugees/all-day care/reference to God 10 voters
Questions 37+38: UBI/EU (too early to call)
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Beezer
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« Reply #2771 on: September 15, 2017, 03:03:03 AM »

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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2772 on: September 15, 2017, 03:11:07 AM »

ZDF proves, again, that they are way more left-wing than ARD...
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Bumaye
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« Reply #2773 on: September 15, 2017, 08:05:37 AM »

ZDF proves, again, that they are way more left-wing than ARD...
 
You act like ZDF would make these polls themselves and not Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Telefonfeld GmbH.
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Diouf
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« Reply #2774 on: September 15, 2017, 08:05:53 AM »

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