German Elections & Politics

[TheSaint250]

What's the reason for the surge?

[Beezer]

What's the reason for the surge?

I guess calling the political elite "pigs" that want to foment a civil war is a vote winner these days.

[Leftbehind]

Since red-green is very far away from a majority, I assume you meant red-red-green. Well, Schulz only said that he doesn't rule out this coalition under certain conditions. I wouldn't really call that support.

Of course, the Greens are former coalition partners, the (federal) Left are former untouchables. I was using Red-Green in the same way it was used in the Norwegian election - not accounting for the different shades of red and green within it. I think the fact that he refused to rule it out was still worth welcoming - the German left appears to be forever f**ked otherwise.

True, the recent grand coalitions are additional baggage for the SPD. But do you remember when the SPD's poll figures suddenly surged after Schulz entered the stage of German politics? So there were apparently many people who did see a "vehicle for change" in the SPD at that time.

Well that's the problem, the bubble burst and I suspect it was in large part because Schulz couldn't maintain the perception he was that change.

[Tender Branson]

Scandal !

The recent town hall with Merkel featured a ton of refugees who had the possibility to speak with her and plead against their deportation (one even said into the camera: "I LOVE you, Mrs. Merkel !").

On the other hand, the public broadcaster ZDF disinvited a Berlin terror victim before the town hall, who also wanted to debate Merkel ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scandal !

The recent town hall with Merkel featured a ton of refugees who had the possibility to speak with her and plead against their deportation (one even said into the camera: "I LOVE you, Mrs. Merkel !").

On the other hand, the public broadcaster ZDF disinvited a Berlin terror victim before the town hall, who also wanted to debate Merkel ...

#LockHerUp

[palandio]

What's the reason for the surge?

In my opinion some of the AfD's soft support is returning. Some had hoped that Schulz could throw Merkel out, some considered Merkel to be the lesser evil compared to R2G. Many had considered not voting at all, because after all they do not consider the AfD to be a compellent option. But now the result of the election seems to be settled with Merkel ahead after a lame campaign which in the CDU's case I would dare to call provocatively apolitical. So when thinking about the nearing election they decide to "hold their nose" and vote AfD.

In general it is quite typical that two or three weeks before the election the number of undecideds and voters in disguise diminishes. The question is where they go. Actually I have to admit that I was quite surprised by the current AfD surge. (Keep in mind that we are still talking about polls, not real election results.)

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://deutschland.isidewith.com/en/results/3292000083

Weird quiz which contains some decidedly "American" issues/questions which play no role whatsoever in this or any other German election campaign.

Take the death penalty question for instance. None of the seven (if we count the CSU separately) political parties who will enter the Bundestag advocates the introduction of the death penalty. Even if one of them were, they'd still need a two-third majority in Bundestag and Bundesrat to change the constitution. And even if they had that two-third majority, EU treaties still wouldn't allow it. So, this and some other of these questions deal largely in hypotheticals.

Yeah, this quiz is really American. Still, the results are alright in terms of accuracy, I guess:

CDU 67%
FDP 61%
Greens 61%
SDP 60%
Die Linke 57%
The Party 54%
CDU/CSU Union (lol) 53%
Pirates 49%
CSU in Bavaria 46%
Ecological Democratic Party 42%
Alliance for Progress and Renewal 34%
AfD 32%

https://deutschland.isidewith.com/en-gb/results/3293305781?from=PFdPUTFK9

[TheSaint250]

Is there a good possibility of the SPD over performing and forcing the grand coalition to continue? I feel like that might happen.

[Hifly]

Is there a good possibility of the SPD over performing and forcing the grand coalition to continue? I feel like that might happen.

Based on what? The Americans must know something the rest of us don't!

If you had been analysing recent German state elections you'll have noted that popular largest-party incumbents have generally overperformed and likewise their opposition or smaller coalition party underperformed on polling day.

[TheSaint250]

Is there a good possibility of the SPD over performing and forcing the grand coalition to continue? I feel like that might happen.

Based on what? The Americans must know something the rest of us don't!

we always know what will happen

If you had been analysing recent German state elections you'll have noted that popular largest-party incumbents have generally overperformed and likewise their opposition or smaller coalition party underperformed on polling day.

Ok thank you!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are the results of the Wahl-O-Mat:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272895

Take a guess on which party is the best fit for this forum...

[parochial boy]

Here are the results of the Wahl-O-Mat:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272895

Take a guess on which party is the best fit for this forum...

NPD?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are the results of the Wahl-O-Mat:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272895

Take a guess on which party is the best fit for this forum...

NPD?

No. AfD, NPD and die Rechte aren't well-received by the forum at all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Big, if true.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Big, if true.

But the FDP is.

[Beezer]

Record low for the SPD now looking more likely with every passing day...

INSA:

[Zinneke]

Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

[Boomer sooner]

Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

Can a party running as a joke run a good or bad campaign?

[mileslunn]

It looks like Merkel should easily win, but any chance the Black-Yellow coalition might be viable or will it probably fall short?  If it does it seems either continue with the Grand Coalition or put together a Jamaica Coalition.  The Grand Coalition might be tougher this time as the SPD cannot be a credible opposition party if part of the government so being in opposition for four years would probably be better for them in terms of their prospects in 2021.  On the other hand I am not sure the Greens want to be part of a right of centre coalition as usually when a party on the left is a junior partner in a right leaning one, they get hammered the next election much like Labour in Ireland, Labour in Netherlands, Greens in Czech Republic and Ireland about a decade ago, and the Liberal Democrats in the UK so if they join there is a real risk they will fail to crack the 5% mark next time around and if on the left, this kills really any chance of a left wing government post 2021.  Perhaps maybe the CDU/CSU and FDP could form a minority and do issue by issue.  It's pretty much a foregone conclusion the right (CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD) will get the majority of votes so doing this would be a way to rely on the AfD without actually reaching out them which Merkel has ruled out.

[DavidB.]

A minority government relying on tacit AfD support is really not happening; viewing political competition as right vs. left isn't helpful if the center-right hate the far-right more than the center-left.

[mileslunn]

A minority government relying on tacit AfD support is really not happening; viewing political competition as right vs. left isn't helpful if the center-right hate the far-right more than the center-left.

So otherwise unless FDP and CDU/CSU outperform polls that means either another Grand Coalition or Jamaica coalition?

[rob in cal]

  Has there been any talk about a CDU/CSU FDP minority coalition government or is it the default expectation that any new government would have to have a Bundestag majority?

[Beezer]

Maybe we'll give the Dutch or Belgians a run for their money when it comes to the length of negotiations. The way I see it there are plenty of roadblocks to the two likely coalitions.

Grand Coalition: If the SPD manages to beat its previous record low (looking more likely each day), I just can't see how they can then enter government once again unless the party really wants to come in third at the next election. Of course they could sell it as the sole viable option with them only entering the government in the interest of democratic stability.

Jamaica: Can the CSU really share a cabinet table with the Greens? State elections are coming up in Bavaria next year. The FDP and Greens will also be aware of the fact that Merkel has a habit of destroying all junior coalition partners. There are plenty of integrationist projects on the horizon and the FDP will remember that its tacit approval for all sorts of eurozone rescue mechanisms ultimately played a key role in the rise of the AfD and the former's failure to enter parliament. Are they really willing to once again enter such a minefield? Merkel's desire to probably leave a lasting eurozone legacy provide the FDP with limited options to put a stop to Macron's reform projects.

As has already been mentioned, Germans don't do minority governments and the CDU/CSU will most certainly avoid any sort of cooperation with the AfD.

But who knows, perhaps we'll get another grand coalition agreement by late October.

[Leftbehind]

Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

Can a party running as a joke run a good or bad campaign?

How are they running as a joke?

[Beezer]

Latest Allensbach data not looking too great for Merkel either...



http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/allensbach.htm