German Elections & Politics

[mvd10]

Former foreign minister (2009-13) and longtime FDP chairman (2001-11) Guido Westerwelle died today, aged 54.

Shortly after leaving office, he had been diagnosed with leukemia and was struggling with it ever since. While I was not a huge a fan of him politically, that was a pretty cruel fate he suffered.

He'll be remembered for being largely reponsible for both the FDP biggest electoral success and the party's biggest defeat in 2009 and 2013 respectively. He was also the first openly gay foreign minister of Germany.

RIP

[mvd10]

I don't like Schulz and ideologically I'm way closer to Merkel, but please kick her out. Please.


According to Wikipedia this is the first poll with the SPD in the lead since August 2011.

[mvd10]

I don't like Schulz and ideologically I'm way closer to Merkel, but please kick her out. Please.

I totally understand what you mean, but it's not as if Schulz is going to be better. Reminds me of being glad Timmermans left as our Foreign Minister and then realizing Koenders is actually worse.

Chancellor Jens Spahn is totally worth 8 years of Red-Red-Green though.

[mvd10]

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Being a FDP/Democratic voter wouldn't make much sense...

Well, I don't believe in the ''Democrats would be far-right neoliberal fascists in Europe'' sh**t, but I imagine there people in Germany who want to see their taxes slashed, but not to the extent that social spending has to be reduced to US levels. And the FDP is fairly liberal on social issues.

[mvd10]

Just another daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes.  
  
New poll from yesterday by "Trend Research Hamburg":  
  
SPD 30%  
CDU 30%  
AfD 13%  
Linke 9%  
Grüne 7%  
FDP 6%  
  
Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not. By the way in the last two weeks the SPD got around 5.000 new members, ten times as much as normal.

At this pace the next Chancellor will be Schulz, unless something highly unexpected occurs. The question then becomes: who will be the SPD's coalition partner(s)?

Also, I'm curious if anyone knows how Schulz would intend to handle President Trump. Frau Merkel has charted a middle course between confrontation and embrace, thereby helping solidify Germany's potentially new role as leader of the liberal, democratic world. How will Schulz maintain or alter that direction of German foreign policy?

The elections are in september so a lot can happen. And this boost might only be temporary. In France Fillon was polling at 28-30% in the weeks after his primary victory, in late january (before Penelopegate) he was back at 23-25% so it's possible the SPD will be back at 25% in a couple of weeks.

I've heard that Gabriel wanted a SPD-Greens-FDP coalition, so that's probably also Schulz's preferred coalition but I doubt it will have a majority. I suppose it's going to be another grand coalition or maybe red-red-green.

[mvd10]

Martin Schulz was officially nominated as candidate for chancellor and as the new party leader of the SPD. He won 605 of 605 votes cast, and thus a result of 100%. That has never happened before in the SPD. He attacked Trump by saying: "Whoever labels free reporting as fake news, whoever deals with deals with the media selectively, applies the axe on the roots of democracy."

In his farewell speech, Gabriel indirectly endorsed Emanuel Macron for president in France by saying: "Imagine how we can change Europe if Martin Schulz becomes chancellor of Germany and Emanuel Macron becomes president of France!" Even though Hamon does not really have a chance in this race, Gabriel endorsed an independent candidate over the nominee of the SPD's sister party, which is notable IMO.

Well the Socialist Minister-President of Wallonia and de facto leader was at Hamon's rally, but apart from him and Corbyn (lol) I expect the leaders of the socialist parties in Europe to model themselves off the Macron-Schulz axis of social liberalism.

Our transformation to the false dichotomous form of American democracy is almost complete.

Isn't Schulz running on a fairly left-wing platform? He promised to roll back some of Agenda 2010's reforms, while Macron is running on a French version of Agenda 2010.

[mvd10]

It's always funny to see how far-right nationalists don't seem to back far-right nationalists in other parties. I understand why Trump wasn't backed by AfD/PVV voters (the Republican party itself is almost as toxic as Trump over here) but Le Pen isn't really much different from Wilders or the current AfD leadership.

[mvd10]

It's always funny to see how far-right nationalists don't seem to back far-right nationalists in other parties. I understand why Trump wasn't backed by AfD/PVV voters (the Republican party itself is almost as toxic as Trump over here) but Le Pen isn't really much different from Wilders or the current AfD leadership.

Perhaps a "theirs is crazy, ours is much more reasonable" reaction?

Yeah, I guess so. And maybe the FN's dark past scares off some AfD voters, but then again their own party also has problems with antisemitic politicians and it doesn't stop them from voting AfD. Or maybe their vote for the AfD is just a protest vote and they don't actually want someone like Le Pen leading the second most powerful country in the EU.

[mvd10]

Is Kraft still regarded as a possible future SPD leader or did her window close? Losing the state elections surely would put an end to that speculation.

[mvd10]

Hannelore Kraft (SPD) steps down from all offices ... with an approval rating of 64-30 according to the ZDF exit poll.

Lol. The Dutch PM won reelection with something like 60% of voters saying they don't want him to win another term at the start of the campaign.

[mvd10]

CDU/CSU-FDP would be amazing!

[mvd10]

CDU/CSU-FDP at 44 and 46. It's probably not happening, but it would be great. We need the FDP to shift Merkel to the right on economic issues (even though it didn't really work out that way from 2009 to 2013).

[mvd10]

A federal CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would do a lot to redeem Merkel (unless she slowly sucks the life out of the FDP again).

[mvd10]

A federal CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would do a lot to redeem Merkel (unless she slowly sucks the life out of the FDP again).

redeem like...what?

she is going to do it anyway - she MUST do it, her base will be furious otherwise, even while the fpd is known to be an annoying partner - if the votes are there.

there just hasn't been a lot of difference between spd and fdp merkel coalitions.

Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. But I don't think CDU/CSU-FDP will have a majority in the end btw. This is the first poll since forever that showed a CDU/CSU-FDP majority and I don't think it will happen unless the AfD completely collapses. Red-Red-Green would have to be at something like 40% for CDU/CSU-FDP to happen.

[mvd10]

So what's Schulz future going to be if he ends up with 26% or less? He can't stay on as party leader in that case, but I suppose a cabinet job is possible if we end up with CDU/CSU-SPD?

[mvd10]

Are we really that sure Merkel would prefer the Greens over the FDP? I don't like her because I think she sold out too much, but we should remember her 2005 campaign which was pretty right-wing as far as I know. I think her pivot to the centre mainly was caused by electoral opportunism, so privately she probably still favors a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition.

[mvd10]

So, why is Schauble so popular?

He's ensuring Germany's continued prosperity by quietly doing his job, or at least that's how I'd describe his public image. I guess he's seen as competent and the personification of political stability albeit in a boring way. At the very least he has amassed more political experience than some of these other folks combined, considering that it was almost 33 years ago that he first became a cabinet member under Helmut Kohl.

Does being Merkel's "pitbull" on Greece also help his image?

[mvd10]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

too many #hottakes about how Marine Le Pen was the real left winger

It's a shame because I liked the comment of some R-XX guy saying that with Fillon doing badly the French Right should look for up and coming patriotic figures or something and cited Jean-François Copé as an example...that was a genuinely funny post.

Wasn't that Kingpoleon? I remember asking for potential future LR candidates and he responded with naming some people of which even I knew that just wasn't going to happen (I believe he even cited Dupont-Aignan, but I'm not sure). It also could have been someone else though.

[mvd10]

Is there a separate poll on the preference of CSU voters? They don't seem to like the Greens very much.

[mvd10]

Warum ist die CDU Schwarz? -.-

[mvd10]

My prediction:
CDU/CSU 34.4%
SPD 21.2%
AfD 14.7%
Left 10.1%
FDP 9.2%
Greens 6.1%
Others 4.3%

[mvd10]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

[mvd10]

A question for Johnson:
Wouldn't a Jamaica coalition be closer to you ideologically than your own SPD ?

[mvd10]

1. Schäuble maybe? The SPD should claim the finance ministry in a grand coalition (they might even claim both the finance and foreign ministry) and in a Jamaica coalition FDP probably will claim the finance ministry (and the Greens could get the foreign ministry). I can't see Schäuble at a lesser ministry like Defence or Economic Affairs so President of the Bundestag is the next best thing left.

2. It's very possible that CDU/CSU-FDP has a majority in that case. Otherwise grand coalition I guess? Or perhaps new elections, but I don't think the Germans would appreciate that.

[mvd10]

1. Schäuble maybe? The SPD should claim the finance ministry in a grand coalition (they might even claim both the finance and foreign ministry) and in a Jamaica coalition FDP probably will claim the finance ministry (and the Greens could get the foreign ministry). I can't see Schäuble at a lesser ministry like Defence or Economic Affairs so President of the Bundestag is the next best thing left.

2. It's very possible that CDU/CSU-FDP has a majority in that case. Otherwise grand coalition I guess? Or perhaps new elections, but I don't think the Germans would appreciate that.

1.) It's possible. Did you know that the Bundestag changed its parliamentary law? We have a parliamentary post called Alterspräsident ("president by seniority"); he is used to be the oldest member of the Bundestag and presides until the new speaker takes up office. In this and the last legislative period, Christian Democrat Heinz Riesenhuber (81), who will have resigned after this election, held this office.
From sheer fear of Alexander Gauland becoming the Alterspräsident in the next legislative session, the Bundestag changed the rules and will make the longest member of parliament occupy this office, i.e. presumably Schäuble.

2.) I think SPD+Linke+AfD would still have more seats than CDU+CSU+FDP.

If you use the Bloomberg polling average and move 2.6% from the Greens to SPD-AfD-Linke you have CDU/CSU-FDP at 44.8% and SPD-AfD-Linke at 45.4%. So it would be 50/50. Probably Merkel's nightmare scenario since she probably doesn't really like the FDP and their majority would be extremely small, but she would be forced to do it anyway.