German Elections & Politics

[Bumaye]

Looking at the map of electoral districts its interesting that the AfD won in the four easternmost districts while the SPD won big everywhere else - especially in the western parts of the state. Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east? Could it be that being near the Polish border makes people more xenophobic?

Greifswalder here (the little red dot in the blue quagmire). The area is literally fcked. Mecklenburg survives because of it's tourism due to the Baltic Sea Coast and the Mecklenburg Lake Plateau. Stuff like that doesn't exist in Vorpommern, there is no industry at all, everyone who is young and educated moves away. (Greifswald is an exception because it's a university city) The people who are left see everything going down hill for their hometowns for decades. It's the perfect area for populist parties.

[Bumaye]

  Hey, Alfa got .3% of the vote, clearly the sign of a party that should be respected as a potent political force.

That's actually quite a good result looking at the fact that they have 40 members in the whole state.

[Bumaye]

By the way yesterday also Schwerin, the capital of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, elected a new mayor.

Die Linke: 31,6% 
SPD: 18,9% 
CDU: 18,2% 
UB: 16,1%
Grüne: 4,5%

(UB is some kind of surrogate-AfD)

That means it stays the same: There is not one single state capital controlled by a CDU/CSU mayor.

[Bumaye]

First poll for Berlin since the MV election by Infratest Dimap:

SPD: 21% 
CDU: 19% 
Grüne: 16% 
Linke: 15% 
AfD: 15% 
FDP: 5% 
Others: 9% 

9% for other parties is an astonishingly high number. It could indicate that the Pirates are hovering around 4% which means they could make it back into the parliament. Interestingly enough Martin Delius the leader of the pirates in the parliament today joined Die Linke.
The 9% could also indicate the best result of my party (Die PARTEI) in a state election after 1,9% in Bremen last year.

However building a coalition in Berlin will be fun with 5 medium sized parties. R2G looks the most realistic to me.

[Bumaye]

Three days until the Berlin election and we are going straight for the worst CDU state election result ever outside of Bremen and Hamburg (18,7% in Brandenburg 1994). The CDU overall is a mess and Henkel is one of the worst candidates they could have chosen.

My prediction:

SPD: 24,2%
Grüne: 17,4%
CDU: 16,5%
Linke: 14,6%
AfD: 13,6%
FDP: 4,7%
Piraten: 3,2%
Die PARTEI: 2,1%  
Sonstige: 3,7%

And then I grab my popcorn and see how the Union (CDU/CSU) completely destroys itself.

Die Linke could maybe get a little boost since Gregor Gysi arguably the most admired member of the party has declared that he will run for the Bundestag again next year.

[Bumaye]

How many refugees did Germany take in last year, and how many have they taken in this year? Still seems like an incredibly large number to me.

We first and foremost took in asylum seekers, not refugees. That's a major difference. In 2015 a total of 440.000 asylum cases were decided, among them 53.000 from Albania alone. The thing is just 0,4% of asylum seekers from Albania actually receive refugee status. Kosovo, Serbia and Macedonia which are also among the top 10 countries where the people came from have similar success rates. Russians, Nigerians and Pakistanis are all below 10% as well. On the other hand the Syrians who obviously make up the largest group with 158.000 cases have an acceptance rate of 98,1%, Iraqis and Afghans around 50%. That adds up to a total of 61% of the asylum seekers who are allowed to stay in Germany.

Most numbers say that a total of 1.100.000 asylum seekers arrived in Germany last year. So when all the cases are decided we should be at a number of around 650.000 refugees in 2015. And yes that was a lot and if not for tens of thousands of volunteers helping out to menage the situation all across the country we would have been in trouble.

Now the good news: The numbers are already shrinking drastically. This year so far 222.000 asylum seekers arrived in Germany, we plan with 300.000-350.000 until the end of the year - one third of the amount of the year before. That is manageable for us without much problems. Now begins the hard work for the politics though. Integration, education and keeping an eye on the bad guys among them.

Regarding Seehofer: He can get worked up about his cap of 200.000 all he wants, at the end of the day the Federal Constitutional Court would stop such a limitation a few weeks after it's implemented as they do all the time with stupid ideas of our Bavarian clowns of the CSU. The right of asylum is part of our constitution and not something you can just change how you would like to. Also his party with it's 7% is the smallest one in the parliament, he often forgets it but CDU and SPD don't need him and his party to rule.

[Bumaye]

My prediction:

SPD: 24,2%
Grüne: 17,4%
CDU: 16,5%
Linke: 14,6%
AfD: 13,6%
FDP: 4,7%
Piraten: 3,2%
Die PARTEI: 2,1%  
Sonstige: 3,7

I expected the Greens to benefit a little more from the Pirates then the Left but if you put the left wing coalition together I was spot on (56%). The AfD was even weaker than I thought (god bless) which benefited CDU and FDP.

Now I'm waiting for the district level results. Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg is always interesting.  

[Bumaye]

So will there be a revival of SPD-Linke coalition, but this time with Grüne also?

R2G (SPD-Green-Left) is the most likely coalition but there are other possibilities. Jamaica coalition (SPD-CDU-Greens) and Germany coalition (SPD-CDU-FDP) are also possible even though unlikely that SPD and CDU will join forces again after just losing more than 10% doing so. Maybe even the traffic light coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) is possible, but with a really small majority.

[Bumaye]

Non-Pirate Others seems to have done well.  I guess NPD must have done pretty well which would be surprising given that AfD is running strong. 

Nope they didn't. So far this is the results of the ballots counted of the smaller parties:

Die PARTEI: 2,1% (YEAAAAAH!!!!!)
Tierschutzpartei (Animal protection party): 2,0%
Piratenpartei (Pirates): 1,8%
Graue Panther (Pensioners party): 1,1%
NPD: (Nazis) 0,6%
Gesundheitsforschung (Health research): 0,5%
Pro Deutschland (Anti-Islam party): 0,5%
ALFA: 0,4%
DKP (Communists): 0,2%

Everyone else is completely meaningless.

[Bumaye]

Strongest party in different areas of Berlin:

That's wrong. The black district is Treptow-Köpenick, so far in terms of first votes the SPD is leading with 24,6% (AfD 22,8%) and in terms of second votes the Linke (22,2%) is the strongest party. (AfD 21,3%).

[Bumaye]

The political landscape of Berlin has changed quite a bit. (Zweitstimmen [Party votes])

I'm not yet allowed to post pictures so if someone wants: imgur. com/dDZkUV8. png

With 3 of 2.432 places yet to count it's save to say that Die PARTEI has for the first time reached the 2 percent mark and is the strongest party not in the parliament.

With how the evening went just two coalitions are possible (no one is going with the AfD), SPD-Left-Green or SPD-CDU-Green. The polls show that the fast majority prefer option number one.

[Bumaye]

Uh, is there anything specific about 1967 that would make it a reference point for quality of life?

 
 
Not in quality but the society changed drastically after the protests of 1968. Racism and Sexism all of a sudden were bad things, some people are angry about that till today.   
 
_____________ 
 
Todays survey by Civey for the newspaper "Tagesspiegel": 
 
CDU: 34,3% 
SPD: 20,7% 
AfD: 14% 
Linke: 10,2% 
Grüne 10,1% 
FDP: 6% 
Others: 4,7% 
 
Funny actually that through the sheer existence of the AfD the AfD voters get either the same again or the same with more feminism and gay rights. 
 
By the way since Die Linke decided to nominate Wagenknecht and the SPD most likely went for Gabriel I will probably vote Green in November.

[Bumaye]

What's exactly wrong with her? Not supporting an utterly naive policy on asylum seekers, that's bound to get the far right on the rise.

 
 
When your policies are determined by how to get a lot of votes instead of your convictions then you are a pretty bad socialist. People like Rosa Luxemburg, Otto Wels and Karl Liebknecht died for what they believe in, Wagenknecht on the other hand picks up far right positions for a percentage point in the polls.   
 
You know where she gave her first interview after being crowned candidate of Die Linke? The German state news? A renowned newspaper like Süddeutsche or Zeit? No, Russia Today. Her affiliation towards Moscow is widely known and with it her position towards the US. Putin and Assad can bomb East Aleppo to the ground but for Mrs. Wagenknecht that is obviously only the fault of the US. Of course she also supported the referendum in Crimea despite armed gunman in every polling station. International agreements like the Budapest Memorandum? Who gives a sh**t! 
 
But wait, there is one American politician she showed appreciations for before. It's an old weirdo called Donald Trump. She praised him because he understood that large investments in infrastructure are needed. Well yeah, but his biggest and only tangible infrastructure project is a ing stupid wall at the Mexican border. 
 
Now let's talk about her "realistic asylum policy". A sentence she repeated over and over again is that "Who missuses his guest right shall lose his guest right." But we are not talking about guest right here, asylum is a human right and deporting people into war zones is against our constitution as Karlsruhe already decided. Then she is talking about limits for asylum - limiting a human right? And next we put a limit on free speech and equality? But I mean who sh**ts on Budapest and Schengen probably sh**ts on Geneva as well. Besides that she hasn't named anything specific to fix the situation, just populism, no ideas. 

Last but not least I could talk about her connections to conspiracy networks with her support for the "Winter of peace" led by neonazis, antisemites and other pests but I don't wanna waste more of my time with "one of the best politicians in Europe".

[Bumaye]

The Green Party's primary is over. While Katrin Göring-Eckardt was already the designated winner since she was the only women running for the job her male counter part has been decided. It is the Green Party's chairmen Cem Özdemir - by a lead of 75 votes.  
  
The full results look like that:  
  
Özdemir: 35.96%
Habeck: 35.74%
Hofreiter: 26.19%

Göring-Eckhart: 70.63%  
  
This is especially interesting because both Göring-Eckhart and Özdemir are part of the so called "Realo" wing which is pretty centrist and generally seen as more open for a CDU-Green coalition. In today's Forsa Poll they would get 47% which would be just as much as the remaining meaningful parties combined.  
  
Özdemir by the way is an interesting guy. He was the very first German-Turkish MP in 1994 yet despite his heritage he was one of the main figures pushing for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide and is a strong critic of Erdogan. Erdogan in response called him a persona non grata. He supports an EU-Army, drug legalization, a slightly higher taxation of the rich and so on plus the typical green topics like feminism, LGBTQ rights, renewable energies, etc.

[Bumaye]

Only four more months till the election in Germany's highest populated state: Nordrhein-Westfalen. A lot of people see it as the major test run for the election of the Bundestag in November so it's time to have a first look at the polls: 
 
Emnid 21.01.2017 (At the end is the change compared to the last election) 
 
SPD: 32% (-7,1%) 
CDU: 30% (+3,7%) 
Grüne: 10% (-1,3%) 
AfD: 10% (+10%) 
FDP: 8% (-0,6%) 
Linke 7% (+4,5%)
 
NRW is the natural habitat of the SPD besides the city states. 32% is just as bad as the worst result they ever had in the state - that was 1947.  Meanwhile Die Linke is benefiting a lot from that weakness of the SPD and could get their best result ever after 5,6% in 2010. As everywhere the AfD has joined the fray as well and has good chances to score a double digit result in the state that received the most refugees in the last couple of years though they don't get even close to their results in east Germany. On a side node the Pirateparty became a non-factor after getting 7,8% in the last election. 
 
If not a whole lot changes one thing is for sure: The Red-Green coalition will not be able to hold their majority. Because of that a LOT of possibilities exist. R2G, Red-Green-Yellow, Grand Coalition, Black-Green-Yellow.

[Bumaye]

Too bad that the AfD decided to keep Höcke today.

This guy is a nut and deserved to be kicked out for his recent comments.

 
 
No, god, no! Höcke is the best thing that could have happen. No sane person doubts that this man is a fascist, he makes it much easier to prove that the same goes for his party.

[Bumaye]

Wow, a brand new poll shows Merkel and Schulz tied, if the chancellor were to elect directly. Encouraging news!

 
  
To compare that with the former races:  
  
Merkels lead in January of election year against:  
2017: +0, Schulz  
2013: +25, Steinbrück  
2009: +19, Steinmeier  
  
It is the very first time since Merkel is chancellor that she is not ahead. We will see how it goes though. Half of the Germans don't know what he stands for so everyone projects their hopes onto him at the moment. I would definitely welcome a European backlash with Schulz and Macron after this weird year 2016. I'll vote Green nevertheless but now there is at least some hope again for R2G. It was depressing to think the best possible outcome would be Black-Green.

[Bumaye]

Most polls are in field for 5 to 7 days...A poll released today would likely have been fielded partially pre and partially post the Schultz announcement. Wait another week and then we will have some real polls.

 
 
So we have some first Post-Schulz nomination polls and it definitely helps the SPD. In the projection of "Forschungsgruppe Wahlen" they climbed 3% in one week and in today's Ipsos poll the left leaning parties have 44%, the highest numbers they ever had in an Ipsos poll. 
 
Today Schulz officially became the candidate of the SPD and I can say that they are more euphoric then I ever saw them. He had a great speech today in the Willy Brandt Haus, the headquarter of the party where he mentioned first points of his campaign. Sounded pretty Sanders-esque to me. Bringing people together, fair taxation for huge corporations, justice and solidarity, fighting climate change, stopping the rise of the far-right in Europe and defend our democracy and our values against all attackers. As someone who likes bashing the SPD I have to say I liked it a lot.

[Bumaye]

No spoilers, please!


Anyway, here's the Infratest shock poll:

CDU/CSU 34% (-1)
SPD 28% (+5)
AfD 12% (-2)
Greens 8% (-1)
Left 8% (+-0)
FDP 6% (+-0)

 
 
That's the highest numbers the SPD had in an Infratest Poll since September 2013. If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out as it seems right now. Well, color me surprised. I honestly thought there was no chance for change as long as Merkel was running. 
 
Even more impressive then that surge are the numbers for a theoretical direct chancellor election in the same poll: 
 
Schulz: 50% (+14%) 
Merkel 37% (-7%) 
 
This is the first time since Merkel took office - reminder: That was in November 2005 - that she lost such a poll.

[Bumaye]

If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out

What makes you think that Schulz would want to even consider a coalition with the Linke instead of the one with CDU? Ideologically, the gap between Merkel and him is infinitely smaller.

 
  
The fact that he visited some of the monthly so called "R2G-Trialogs" with politicians of all three parties to find a common ground for a coalition. It is no secret that some in the SPD would prefer Red-Green-Yellow but it is unlikely that the FDP will be strong enough for that.  
  
  
EDIT:  
  
Another INSA poll was just released. This time not an online poll but landline.  
  
CDU: 33% (+0,5%) 
SPD: 27% (+1%)  
AfD: 12% (-1%)  
Linke: 9% (-1,5%)  
Grüne: 9% (+1,5%)  
FDP: 6% (-0,5%)  
  
I think 45% for R2G is the highest I saw lately. That makes me moist.

[Bumaye]

Three weeks ago Pollster Emnid saw a 16 point lead for the CDU/CSU over the SPD. Now only 4 points of that lead are left. Last time the SPD had 29% in an Emnid poll? November 2012.  
  
CDU: 33%  
SPD: 29%  
AfD: 11%  
Linke: 8%  
Grüne: 8%  
FDP: 6%  
  
R2G 45% - Rest 50%  
It's getting closer by the day.  
  
Today by the way Schulz probably gained some more votes. He for the first time criticized some points of the infamous Agenda 2010 and acknowledged that it was misused by some companies to reduce wages.

[Bumaye]

I personally prefer a SPD-Greens-FDP coaltion (would actually like only SPD-FDP, but that isn't possible unless the Social Democrats gain another twelve points or so).

 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umDr0mPuyQc 
 
That would be the end of the SPD for another 15 years. Schulz' campaign is based on social justice, higher wages, less temporary employment, fighting tax evasion, equal chances  and investing in infrastructure. All of that is fought against by the FDP. Yes, Wagenknecht and some other members of Die Linke are weirdos but in their political ideas they are the party that is the closest to the SPD. I mean how shall anyone trust the SPD when they again talk about all the topics I just mentioned and again form a coalition with a neo-capitalistic party like the CDU or the FDP while there is a socialist party ready to cooperate to get things done?

[Bumaye]

Die Linke isn't what it used to be.  Plus the 3 parties are already in a watermelon coalition in Thuringia and there have been a lot of discussions between the 3 parties.  I know you're a right winger so I probably can't convince you, but calling Die Linke illiberal in 2017 is false.

I do not that much care about your conventional right-left. I have no problem with the Greens in Germany whatsoever. But die Linke is a very unpleasant group, with very unpleasant ideas.

 
  
The only ideas that are drastically different from everybody else is that they wanna leave NATO and categorically rule out interventions in other countries. They are less harsh towards Russia to be fair but still critical of Putin.

[Bumaye]

Just a daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes.  
  
New Poll from GMS (Compared to 5th January):  
CDU: 33% (-3%)  
SPD: 29% (+9%)  
AfD: 11% (-2%)  
Grüne: 9% (-1%)  
Linke: 8% (-2%)  
FDP: 6% (-1%)  
  
The deficit of R2G against the right wing parties has shrunk from 16 points to 4 points in a month according to this.  
  
Also it's really interesting to take a look at Bavaria. GMS polled them separately as well and in Bavaria the SPD only has gained +3% compared to +9% nationwide. That leads to the conclusion that their gains must be really high in other places which should be a great sign for the upcoming state elections in Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and Nordrhein-Westfalen. R2G was behind by 4-5% in all of these states in the latest polls.

[Bumaye]

Just another daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes. 
 
New poll from yesterday by "Trend Research Hamburg": 
 
SPD 30% 
CDU 30% 
AfD 13% 
Linke 9% 
Grüne 7% 
FDP 6%   
 
Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not. By the way in the last two weeks the SPD got around 5.000 new members, ten times as much as normal.