German Elections & Politics

[Former President tack50]

 If the Bundestag election leads to a CDU/CSU FDP near majority of seats, with RRG further behind in seats and a AFD delegation holding the rest of the seats, would a minority CDU/CSU FDP government be a possibility?

Why would they risk a minority government with the FDP when they can get another cozy grand coalition with the SPD as junior partner, who then keeps on losing the next general election again in 2021 ?

I guess SPD could just say no, but not likely to happen. Plus, wouldn't CDU/FDP/Greens be another viable alternative?

[Former President tack50]

there are not stable trends regarding the small parties atm,

you can only make out that the cdu is rising and the spd is falling, even while the cdu is rising much more than the spd is falling.

everything else is unclear and alle 4 small parties are in crisis.

Considering the instability of polling for small parties and that there's usually a 2-3% margin of error, is there a chance of all minor parties falling below the 5% threshold and having a parliament with just CDU/CSU and SPD?

Alternatively, what about not just the FDP, but also the Greens falling below 5% (ie a parliament with only AfD, CDU/CSU, SPD and Linke. I guess in that case a grand coalition would be basically guaranteed, with a small chance of SPD+Linke if they add up which isn't likely at all)

[Former President tack50]

So it's official then. The Schulz-Zug has completely derailed I guess.

[Former President tack50]

If CDU/CSU-FDP don't have a majority but CDU/CSU still win the election by a comfortable margin, it has to be a grand coalition again... right? Or is Jamaica really a plausible option?

Let's assume that neither red-red-green nor black-yellow nor black-green had a majority of seats. In that scenario, the respective parties would start negotiating a Jamaica coalition first. My gut feeling tells me that the negotiations wouldn't be successful, though. I believe that a coalition with the CDU/CSU and the FDP at federal level is potentially dangerous for the Greens, even more so than a black-green coalition, because they could lose many voters to Die Linke (watermelon greens) and the SPD (economically moderate SJWs). They could even end up like the FDP in 2013.

I honestly think a minority government would be more likely than a Jamaica coalition, and I don't think the former is very likely at all

While I think that both are unlikely, I'd say that a Jamaica coalition would be more likely than a minority government. Germans don't like minority governments, especially not at federal level. We're too much of play-it-safe types for that.

What about a traffic light coalition? (SPD+Greens+FDP). Assuming the numbers add up of course, which I guess is not likely at all.

[Former President tack50]

So it's looking more and more like an easy Merkel victory, with the SPD going back tho the 25% or so they have been in for a long time.

[Former President tack50]

So, the messages from an internal Whatsapp group of the AfD Saxony-Anhalt have been leaked.


So, far it seems the worst messages exchanged in that group were:

1) A member writing on February 18, that "after taking power, a panel must screen and filter all journalists and editors. Fire the directors, ban media who are enemies of the people". In response, another member voiced concern that this Whatsapp group was "almost public" due to its size, and that caution is advised.

2) AfD state chairman André Poggenberg writing about "expanding the external borders", and "Germany for the Germans!"


Poggenburg himself has confirmed the authenticity of the leaked material. His defense basically was: Freedom of speech.

To be fair, is that a private group of supporters, a group of the leadership, what?

Because if it's a private group of supporters then I don't see the problem. They are borderline neo-nazis sure, but you shouldn't ban an ideology.

If it's an official group they should be expelled, they've gone way too far.

[Former President tack50]

To be fair, is that a private group of supporters, a group of the leadership, what?

Because if it's a private group of supporters then I don't see the problem. They are borderline neo-nazis sure, but you shouldn't ban an ideology.

If it's an official group they should be expelled, they've gone way too far.

It's a Whatsapp group called "AfD Info LSA", run by their state chapter in Saxony-Anhalt.

It's supposed to have around 200 members. The members of the AfD state executive committee (including the state chairman, one of his deputy chairmen, and the state treasurer) serve as the administrators of the group. Other members include the chairman of the Saxony-Anhalt chapter of the AfD youth organization, as well as several members of the state parliament.


The originator of these aforementioned quotes has been identified as Nico Backhaus, deputy county chairman of the AfD and federal police officer:

"I have four children. I won't leave them to the Musulman faith (which isn't one). I'm also a good shooter, hence a good hit rate. I intend to get a private gun license too."

"I have to agree with you. But it's doable. All for one and one for all." (in response to: "I'm afraid that the upcoming, massive, establishment-made mistakes can only be solved by "chambering a round" and not so easily.")

Oh, so it's official and involving high up people! Well I guess now everyone knows that the AfD has some sympathies for neo nazis.

[Former President tack50]

Spent the last three days collecting signatures but apparently we did it! Die PARTEI will be on the ballot in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and with that in all 16 states! Last election the party only made it onto 5 state ballots. With how hopeless many leftists are right now regarding the chances for R2G I think it will be at least 0,7% in September but if things go right I could see us getting 1% nationwide. In addition to Martin Sonneborn and Serdar Somuncu a few days ago Nico Semsrott was named as frontrunner in Berlin so that are quite some figureheads. Die PARTEI currently has 24.000 members by the way, the AfD for comparison has 28.000 members.

 

I wonder, what would happen if the joke party got seats? Also, don't they have an MEP? What's he doing?

[Former President tack50]

Interesting new YouGov poll:

"Should (insert state) secede from Germany and become independent ?"

32% Bayern
22% Thüringen
22% Saarland

(...)

8% each for Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein & Rheinland-Pfalz

http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/bundesland/umfrage-bundeslaender-wollen-raus-aus-deutschland-52565436.bild.html

Yikes, those are actually really high numbers!

For reference around 25% of Basques or 42% of Catalans want independence. I wonder why there are no relevant "Bayern/Thuringen/Rheinland-Pfalz nationalist party" like here. They don't even need to be full on independence, just wanting more money and autonomy would be good enough

[Former President tack50]

Interesting new YouGov poll:

"Should (insert state) secede from Germany and become independent ?"

32% Bayern
22% Thüringen
22% Saarland

(...)

8% each for Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein & Rheinland-Pfalz

http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/bundesland/umfrage-bundeslaender-wollen-raus-aus-deutschland-52565436.bild.html

beautiful numbers. if frau merkel gets another term we could have independent bavaria. that would be great!

LOLno. From what I understand, the German constitution bans secession of a state from the mother (or father)land.

Doesn't seem to be an issue over here.

[Former President tack50]

'member Schulzmentum?

Yeah, what happened to him? Did he eat a baby live on TV?

[Former President tack50]

Meanwhile, Sultan Erdogan has advised his Turkish community in Germany against voting for the CDU, SPD or the Greens as these parties are supposed to be "foes of Turkey".
Instead, they should support parties that don't act hostile towards his sultanate - without telling which ones.

Oh, and Germany is supposed to have infringed European values, of course...

Considering the remaining parties are FDP, Linke and AfD I wonder which of the 3 would Erdogan endorse

[Former President tack50]

42 parties will be found on the ballots, but only nine are competing nationwide:

• SPD
• DIE LINKE
• GRÜNE
• FDP
• AfD
• FREIE WÄHLER
• Die PARTEI
• MLPD (Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany)
• BGE (party for unconditional basic income)

Furthermore, eight parties are only competing with direct candidates, i.e. without party lists:

• Bündnis C (Christians for Germany)
• DIE EINHEIT (German spin-off of United Russia)
• DIE VIOLETTEN (German Roseanne Barr Party)
• FAMILIE (conservative family party)
• DIE FRAUEN (German Taylor Swift Party)
• MIETERPARTEI (party for renters)
• Neue Liberale (founded by former, very moderate FDP politicians from Hamburg)
• UNABHÄNGIGE (party for direct democracy and first-past-the-post voting)

Any independents or minor parties with a chance (even if it's extremely remote) of winning one of the FPTP electorate seats based on local strength or something?

[Former President tack50]

FDP 66%
CDU 63%
SPD 51%
Grüne 47%
Linke 46%
AfD 39%

Well, that was unexpected. Apparently I'm a conservative and I never knew that :/

[Former President tack50]

I actually think there's a decent chance Die PARTEI AfD-2013s this, as in performing best of the minor parties and then spinning that into a surge where they can get in to the various Landtags that are having elections next.

 
 
Nah, I think the only chance is a city state election and the next one is Bremen in early 2019.   
Though I doubt it would go down like the Pirate Party. The difference is that people wanted legit answers from the Pirates which they couldn't provide at that point. Nobody expects Die PARTEI to have serious answers, their job is to criticize the established parties from the left as the AfD does from the right.

Isn't that actually Linke's job? The AfD is a serious party, just like the Pirates or Linke. Die PARTEI is a literal parody party

[Former President tack50]

A minority government relying on tacit AfD support is really not happening; viewing political competition as right vs. left isn't helpful if the center-right hate the far-right more than the center-left.

Would a minority CDU/CSU+FDP cabinet work, supported by either the Greens or the SPD depending on the issue? (or maybe even AfD)

[Former President tack50]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

[Former President tack50]

The FDP wants its seats in the middle of the new Bundestag. As of yet, they always used to occupy the space on the very right.

And now it's official: Schäuble will not only become the president of the Bundestag by seniority, he is going to become the regular President of the parliament.

I thought seats were always divided in one of these 2 ways?:

Leader of the opposition on one side (so with Jamaica, SPD; after 2013 Linke), Government in the other, everyone else in the middle, ordered most conservative to most left wing

Simply most conservative to most left wing no matter if they are in government or opposition

[Former President tack50]

I think there needs to be some kind of compromise for CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens to happen, such as granting the CSU to impose a low annual immigrant/asylum Obergrenze (= upper limit) for Bavaria in the coalition contract, which they can enforce. Or some other goodies to bring them onboard, such as limiting the big Bavarian payments to the poorer East etc.

I guess Germany could just make refugee limits a states issue? How big would the coalition be in "states rights"? That way the Greens can push for no limits in the states they control while the CSU does the same in Bavaria. And everyone else gets to say if they want them or not.

[Former President tack50]

SPD will be a viable electoral option only accepting to cooperate with The Left in federal politics.

I agree. The only way in the future for an SPD chancellor will be SPD-Greens-Linke or SPD-Linke if the greens fall below 5%

Traffic light won't work after Jamaica sends both FDP and Greens just barely above the 5% threshold and SPD-FDP won't get a majority and even if it does that will just make SPD the 3rd largest party on the next election

[Former President tack50]

The most interesting deputy election will result from Albrecht Glaser's nomination. The AfD politician is said to be staunchly Islamophobic, which is likely to lead to his defeat. He used to be a CDU member from 1970 till 2012. From 1997 till 2010, he was the city treasurer of Frankfurt am Main.

Glaser will of course repeatedly lose and the AfD will of course cry havoc and lament how totally unfairly they* are treated by the other parties.

* (and only they, because prior to the foundation of the AfD injustice and unfairness didn't exist at all in Germany... the AfD was basically founded with the express purpose of introducing someone who's treated unfairly. That the Greens didn't have a vice president of their own for the first eleven years they sat in parliament didn't actually happen. That the PDS didn't have a vice president for the first eight years they sat in parliament didn't actually happen. That Left Party vice presidential candidate Lothar Bisky didn't manage to get elected in 2005 and that the Left Party's vice presidential post then remained vacant for half a year until Petra Pau was elected for the Left Party in his place didn't actually happen.)

To be fair AfD got 12.6%. That's higher than any result the Greens or Linke/PDS ever got. In fact it is the third best result for a third party ever, only behind FDP's 14.9% in 2009 and FDP's 12.9% in 1961.

I think that getting 12.6% of the vote, higher than any other party except the big 2 and the 3rd best result for a third party entitles them to get a vicepresident of their own, and one that the AfD itself likes.

Also, I heard that the initial speech was not given by the oldest parlamentarian (which would have been an AfD one) but by the one with most seniority?

That's terrible. The German Bundestag shouldn't change its rules to marginalize the AfD. It should be treated like any other party.

[Former President tack50]

The most interesting deputy election will result from Albrecht Glaser's nomination. The AfD politician is said to be staunchly Islamophobic, which is likely to lead to his defeat. He used to be a CDU member from 1970 till 2012. From 1997 till 2010, he was the city treasurer of Frankfurt am Main.

Glaser will of course repeatedly lose and the AfD will of course cry havoc and lament how totally unfairly they* are treated by the other parties.

* (and only they, because prior to the foundation of the AfD injustice and unfairness didn't exist at all in Germany... the AfD was basically founded with the express purpose of introducing someone who's treated unfairly. That the Greens didn't have a vice president of their own for the first eleven years they sat in parliament didn't actually happen. That the PDS didn't have a vice president for the first eight years they sat in parliament didn't actually happen. That Left Party vice presidential candidate Lothar Bisky didn't manage to get elected in 2005 and that the Left Party's vice presidential post then remained vacant for half a year until Petra Pau was elected for the Left Party in his place didn't actually happen.)

To be fair AfD got 12.6%. That's higher than any result the Greens or Linke/PDS ever got. In fact it is the third best result for a third party ever, only behind FDP's 14.9% in 2009 and FDP's 12.9% in 1961.

I think that getting 12.6% of the vote, higher than any other party except the big 2 and the 3rd best result for a third party entitles them to get a vicepresident of their own, and one that the AfD itself likes.

Also, I heard that the initial speech was not given by the oldest parlamentarian (which would have been an AfD one) but by the one with most seniority?

That's terrible. The German Bundestag shouldn't change its rules to marginalize the AfD. It should be treated like any other party.

In this office, Glaser would not speak for the AfD, he would speak for the whole of the Bundestag.

There is substantial doubt whether Glaser's views are compatible with our constitution, namely the part about religious freedom.

On 18th April 2017, Glaser made a speech at an AfD party convention, in which he said:
"Islam itself is a construct that does not recognize or respect religious freedom. Where it is in charge, it nips religious freedom in the bud. If you treat a fundamental right like that, the fundamental right should be removed from you."

Islam is a controversial religion, and I agree that many of its proponents hold despicable views, but I still understand why someone like Glaser would be unsuitable for this office.

Nahles, the chairwoman of the SPD parliamentary group, said she had written a letter to Glaser before the constituiting session, in which she had urged Glaser to take a stand on his controversial remarks. However,  Glaser did not reply, according to Nahles.  

If the AfD are unable to put up a candidate that is trusted by the majority of Bundestag members, they'll have to go without this office. It's as simple as that.
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Personally, I think it makes more sense that the initial speech is delivered by the parlamentarian with the most political experience. It should have always been like that.

Yeah, but it should still be someone the AfD agrees to, not just some random guy picked by the other parties that just happens to be from AfD. A compromise candidate.

As for the initial speech, I agree that the politician with the most experience is better than simply the oldest one, but still, they shouldn't have changed the rules just because the oldest guy happened to be from AfD (unless AfD consented to that which I guess it didn't).

Maybe for the 2021, 2025 or an election when AfD is integrated into German politics (like Linke had to do) or drops out of parliament it would be acceptable, but marginalizing them is not a good strategy.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, but it should still be someone the AfD agrees to, not just some random guy picked by the other parties that just happens to be from AfD. A compromise candidate.

It's still up to the AfD to nominate a vice-presidential candidate. However, if they want to see their vice-presidential candidate get elected, they need to nominate someone who is capable of winning a majority of votes in the Bundestag.

This time they didn't nominate such a person and they possibly did so on purpose, because they considered the political gain from not winning the vice-presidential election to be higher than the gain from successfully getting a vice president elected.

At the end of the day, you simply can't force a member of the Bundestag to vote in favour of a certain candidate.... which is apparently what you're proposing.

Oh, I understand now. Then it's a dumb move. I thought they were being isolated by the rest of the Bundestag on purpose.

[Former President tack50]

If Jamaica fails, could Schulz try a minority SPD-Greens government, with support from FDP and Linke? Or is that impossible? (it would be extremely unstable I'll admit)

Also, how does Germany's system to elect a chancellor work? Does it require an overall majority? A simple majority? How many tries are allowed before Germans go to new elections?

[Former President tack50]

Wouldn't Merkel's 2nd appointment after 14 days fail as well?

She only has 246 seats while everyone else has more than double that. Or do you have to write someone's name or abstain?