German Elections & Politics

[Franzl]

I was asked to lock the previous thread because it was getting so long.

I'll open this thread with today's federal Forsa poll:

CDU/CDU 45%
SPD 24%
Grüne 8%
Linke 8%
AfD 6%

FDP 3%

[Franzl]

An absolute majority really would have been the best solution, although note that because the AfD gets in, even 45% is insufficient.

[Franzl]

That poll isn't giving her one. No poll since election day has given her one. There have been five; the two by Forsa have shown CDU/CSU with a lead over SPD/Left/Greens while the three not by Forsa have all shown a tie. All five polls, however, have shown AfD at 5 (first Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) or 6 (second Forsa, both Emnid) - and the FDP at 3 or 4.

And the election was really something of a fluke, with two parties just barely below 5%. Even if 41,5% is a very impressive result these days, it's really not anywhere close to majority territory unless you get incredibly lucky.

[Franzl]

Emnid poll for federal level:

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 25%
Linke 10%
Grüne 9%
AfD 6%

FDP 3%

[Franzl]

As you may imagine, I followed these elections with great interest. So glad to see the FDP gone. And hopefully now that Merkel's future is assured for the next 4 years, hopefully she will be a bit more pragmatic in her approach to the EU.

So where are coalition talks going at this point? Are minimum wage and gay marriage all but assured at this point?

Black-green is done with unless the talks for a grand coalition fail. A minimum wage does seem like a done deal and the model most seem to talk about would include a non-political commission that would periodically increase the rate to keep up with cost of living.

I've not heard anyone seriously discuss gay marriage yet.

[Franzl]

I hope Merkel stands firm against Gay Marriage. However, it can certainly pass the new parliament. I don't think there are socially conservative lefties in the Bundestag and many CDU representatives support it.

I seriously doubt Merkel cares about gay marriage either way.

German lawmaking doesn't work that way (except rarely, on occasion).

Yes, like the abolition of tuition fees in Hessen. (Although I guess there wasn't technically a new government in place.)

[Franzl]

INSA poll from yesterday:

CDU/CSU: 43%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 8.5%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 3.5%

[Franzl]

The NSA scandal has struck again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24651975

Disgusting, but unsurprising.

[Franzl]

New federal Allensbach poll:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5.5%
FDP: 5%

[Franzl]

Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%

[Franzl]

Wait, so what happened with forming a government? Is it officially going to be a Grand Coalition or are they still negotiating?

The coalition negotiations between CDU/CSU and the SPD are ongoing. (But it's pretty obvious both sides want it.)

[Franzl]

Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%

Germany seems to be the most "polled" country in the world.

We really do get a lot of polls... Speaking of which:

There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

CDU: 27% (+4%)
SPD: 27% (-1%)
Grüne: 16% (-2%)
Linke: 16% (+4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Piraten: 3% (-6%)

[Franzl]

Probably around 1% in Berlin. They've been counted as "others" for a while in Berlin. And in 2011, I think they were under 2%.

[Franzl]

Infratest dimap state poll from Baden-Württemberg (change in relation to 2011 election):

CDU: 43% (+4%)
Grüne: 22% (-2%)
SPD: 19% (-4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Linke: 4% (+1%)
FDP: 4% (-1%)


The current green-red government would lose its majority.

[Franzl]

Two new polls:

State election in Thüringen (they vote next year) from INSA (changes in relation to the 2009 election)
CDU: 36% (+5%)
Linke: 27% (n.c.)
SPD: 14% (-5%)
AfD: 6% (+6%)
Grüne: 6% (n.c.)

FDP: 2% (-6%)

So nothing to see here, grand coalition would be continued...


Federal poll from Emnid:
CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5%

FDP: 3%

[Franzl]

Red-red-green will not govern Hessen.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/wahl-in-hessen/schaefer-guembel-wird-nicht-ministerpraesident-aus-der-traum-12663348.html

So either black-green, grand coalition or new elections.

[Franzl]

Looks like CDU and Greens have sorted out many differences and will negotiate forming a black-green government here in Hessen.

http://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/koalitionsverhandlungen-cdu-will-schwarz-gruen-in-hessen-12675851.html

[Franzl]

Considering how long they've been having discussions about virtually every option out there, I think this means they're quite serious and that we will get the first black-green government in a Flächenland.

[Franzl]

Anyway, the federal coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD are coming to an end:

It appears the SPD has agreed to forget about tax increases, will accept the general toll for the Autobahn, and will also forget about restricting the salaries of CEOs.

In exchange for this, it looks like the CDU/CSU will give them: a minimum wage of 8,50€ starting in 2015 (although there would be certain exceptions for the first 2 years), full equality of gay civil unions (possibly also including the right to adopt, although they're quite vague on the details), a gender quota for certain leadership posts.

I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot, but it seems like the parties are coming to an overall agreement.


Let's see whether the SPD members also agree to it in their referendum.

[Franzl]

Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.

[Franzl]

Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.

Just a formality ...

What makes you so certain? I'm not so convinced. More likely than not....but let's wait and see.

[Franzl]

The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.

[Franzl]

The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.

The road toll is for Germans and foreigners, but the German car owners get the road-toll cost back via lower car-insurance taxes, no ? At least that's what I've read. Which means Germans are exemt from the toll.

Plus, we can complain because we have to pay the full toll as well, like all German tourists need as well ...

You haven't answered the part about the universities... Austrians are just as entitled to free universities in Germany (in all but 1 state, at least) as the other way around. Now there are other reasons the latter is more common (numerus clausus), but it still doesn't have anything to do with motorway fees.

The argument about lowering our automobile tax to compensate for the toll is true, but I still think it's an unfair complaint. What if we lowered certain income taxes to make it a neutral fee? Domestic taxation policy is an internal political matter.

[Franzl]

Meh, the agreement is a bit disappointing, but I guess that considering the numbers the SPD could hardly get anything else. I'm happy for German workers, the minimum wage will be a great thing.

The SPD really did themselves relatively cheap, although given the Union's 41%, that's not terribly surprising.

To be honest, I'd be more interested in seeing black-green at federal level as well, but unless the SPD members revolt..and even then....not gonna happen.

[Franzl]

I meant cheap in the sense that there's nothing in the contract that seriously bothers the Union. I think the Greens would have more to show for themselves if such a coalition happened.