German Elections & Politics

[Zanas]

SPD members, on the other hand, don't support a Grand coalition, at least as far as I can tell.

If the party members have the final say, as promised, this will cause huge problems for the leadership. In case the coalition proposal is dismissed, the leaders will of course have to resign and the party will be in disarray. If it's narrowly approved, this will also weaken the party and the new government as a whole. An overwhelming vote in favour of a new Grand coalition, though, is something I really can't imagine.

So I wonder what this membership survey is all about. From a tactical point of view, it's absolute rubbish. 

Fixed.

[Zanas]

The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.

[Zanas]

The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.

One wonders what sort of people it is that Trotskyist sects prefer, or even if they are in any position to lecture others on keeping popular support.

I am a part of the Left Front and I have nothing to be ashamed of in matters of popular support, thank you.

[Zanas]

In Thüringen, CDU was above 40% and SPD and Linke were neck and neck a few months ago.

[Zanas]

So all this scandal over child porn was overshadowed by Ukraine I gather ? Nothing more worthy of mention ?

Anyway, Forsa poll :
CDU/CSU 40
SPD 22
Linke 11
Greens 10
AfD 6
FDP 4
Andere 7

[Zanas]

facebook likes of the main german parties

97.778 AfD
89.429 Pirates
77.830 CDU
70.311 SPD
63.528 Left
48.424 Greens
27.455 FDP
21.670 CSU

Are you in fact Tender Branson in disguise ?

[Zanas]

Breaking: Three-term Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit intends to resign on December 11.

Thank god, I say. The SPD is probably pretty relieved too to get rid of Berlin's most unpopular politician and Germany's most unpopular state premier.

Will Berlin stop bieng sexy then ? What's for sure is that it's not gonna stop being "arm"...

[Zanas]

Merkel rules out any coalition with the AfD on the federal and state level:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/vorwahlsplitter-landtagswahl-sachsen100.html#anchor1

Merkel says the AfD has a "backwards picture of society".

Which might be true.

Didn't the Saxony-AfD leader just recently call for a referendum on abortion ?

Well, they're possibly the most highly educated party.

Do you mean by membership or by electorate ?

[Zanas]

Linke and SPD are gonna be ranked the other way around, I guarantee it.

[Zanas]

Experience has taught me that when you have a social-liberal party and a vaguely more leftist party competing somewhat closely for a rank, the social-liberal party nearly always end up ahead of the vaguely more leftist party. Not always, I grant you, but nearly always.

[Zanas]

Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ? If they steal their voters, don't they also steal their ideology and policies ? The general perception I had so far was that they were a more acceptable far-right alternative. Is that so ?

Oh and of course, my pessimistic prediction of SPD overtaking die Linke was way off. It can apparently stem from two things : 1. I always tend to forget that in the East die Linke is a well established party of management, and it's rather the SPD that's the newcomer ; and 2. the Saxon SPD seems to suck friggin balls.

[Zanas]

Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.

Yes I got that. But will they do things differently in the Landtag ? For example, if they end up one day drawing CDU to its right in a CDU-AfD coalition (not likely for now, I know), is it not worse than a basically harmless NPD with a bunch of MPs opposing everything and unable to influence policies ?

What is NPD's record in Landtags anyway ?  

[Zanas]

Will the CDU now have to seriously go shopping for a new junior coalition partner? The FDP look to be in terrible shape and I am pretty sure the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle forever in "grosse coalitions."

What makes you pretty sure of that ? It's not like they can hope anything better in the coming 10 years or so... Plus they happen to actually get some things passed, like the minimum wage.

[Zanas]

So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 13%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.

Yeah, well, I don't think die Linke qualifies as far-left in this context, maybe even in any context. And does the AfD actually qualify as "far-right" ? Wouldn't that be the NPD ? I would see the AfD more as "right-wing" or "hard-right", not "far-right".

[Zanas]

So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 13%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.

Yeah, well, I don't think die Linke qualifies as far-left in this context, maybe even in any context. And does the AfD actually qualify as "far-right" ? Wouldn't that be the NPD ? I would see the AfD more as "right-wing" or "hard-right", not "far-right".

I agree with you, but my version sounded more dramatic.

Oh I also like to play the dramatic game from time to time. Especially if I lose or win big time.

[Zanas]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?

[Zanas]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?

A credible SPD with a genuine plan for what to do with the country?

HAHAHAHAHAHA !!!!!!!!!!!!!! I just died.

[Zanas]

Could somebody point me to the nearest interactive clickable constituency map of Bundestag elections ? I was in Berlin last weekend and visited the Deutscher Dom museum about Parliamentarism in Germany, and they had this huge touch-screen map of all results by constituency and erst-stimme/zweite-stimme and I can't get it out of my head. I would have stayed there all afternoon hadn't my wife protested a bit...

[Zanas]

CDU



gray1: 22.5%
gray2: >15.9%
gray3: <15.9%
gray4: 8.6%

That CDU map would look sexier with a few more shades...

[Zanas]

I find the FDP's resurrection particularly disgusting, provided that it's only due to a pair of legs and a new logo...

[Zanas]

I suppose in Bremen that SPD-Grünen should be the natural coalition to rule ? Or is it another Grosskoalition ?

[Zanas]

Interesting new poll by FORSA for Baden-Württemberg (which will vote early next year):

38% CDU
26% Greens
20% SPD
  4% FDP
  4% Left
  4% AfD
  4% Others

Because FDP, Left and AfD are all below the 5% threshold, there's a chance the current Green-SPD coalition may continue their work.

With what we've seen recently, I think we can fully expect AfD to cross the threshold though, and perhaps the FDP as well in their oh-so-undesirable come-back. Die Linke OTOH doesn't seem like a good fit for B-W.

[Zanas]

New Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 36%
SPD: 25%
Grünen: 10%
Die Linke: 10%
AfD: 8%
FDP: 5%
Others: 6%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

A bit more transfer between CDU/CSU -> AfD, and even a GroKo won't have a majority...

[Zanas]

First time that AfD comes in third?

No, they've already been third federally in November. But with the Istanbul bombing having made mostly German casualties, we can expect them to only go up from here...

[Zanas]

Tell me again, why did Germany oppose the new Polish media law? Something related to partisanship, right?

But yeah, it's admittedly somewhat of a different story if Die Linke is excluded as well. Why is that? A debate with only CDU, SPD and the Greens is weird.

You know "serious-business" and that sort of things. Which FDP is now clearly excluded from, happily enough.