German Elections & Politics

[SNJ1985]

One asylum seeker from Eritrea has been killed last Monday under obscure circumstances - and the first statement the police gave was, that they could absolutely rule out unlawful killing. After 30 hours they suddenly discovered knife stiches all over his body (that had been found bleeding before) and only after that the securing of traces began.

As it turns out, he was killed by a fellow Eritrean over a financial dispute. The killing had nothing to do with PEGIDA.

http://www.dw.de/arrest-made-over-the-death-of-dresden-asylum-seeker/a-18209972
http://eastafro.com/Post/2015/01/22/26-year-old-eritrean-arrested-over-khaled-idris-bahrays-germany-killing/

Leftists wrongly assumed that it somehow must have been PEGIDA's fault, and then tried to use it against them.

[SNJ1985]

New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
 5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).

Is there any indications that the AFD is underpolling in german polls?

It's possible. They outperformed all of their poll results in the 2013 federal election; or at least all of the ones shown here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2013#Party_polling

[SNJ1985]

My results from the Hamburg "Wahl-o-mat":

78.6% New Liberals
75.5% Party for Retired People
74.5% ÖDP
66.3% Pirates
66.3% Left
64.3% Greens
63.3% HHBL
62.2% SPD
62.2% The Party
56.1% CDU
52.0% FDP
49.0% AfD
35.7% NPD

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2015

My results:

AfD: 67,1%
CDU: 65,8%
NPD: 65,8%
FDP: 63,2%
HHBL: 60,5%
SPD: 47,4%
GRÜNE: 42,1%
DIE LINKE: 26,3%

I did answer with ''Neutral'' to a fair number of the questions.

[SNJ1985]

Another Hamburg poll.

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/wahl/Umfrage-SPD-baut-Vorsprung-weiter-aus,umfrage720.html

SPD: 46%
CDU: 18%
Die Grünen: 11%
Die Linke: 9%
AfD: 5,5%
FDP: 5,5%
Others: 5%

[SNJ1985]

According to a recent poll, the CDU and CSU could win an absolute majority if an election were held next week.

http://www.firstpost.com/world/germanys-merkel-has-chance-of-absolute-majority-poll-shows-reuters-2375922.html

[SNJ1985]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.

[SNJ1985]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.

The most interesting about those numbers are the the remaining 37%. 

Through google.de, I found another article which states that the poll actually says 36% think the government is doing just the right amount, 34% don't think it is doing enough, and 27% think it is doing too much...that still leaves 3 percent. Maybe they were undecided.

http://www.n24.de/n24/d/7280314/haelfte-der-deutschen-will-mehr-grenzkontrollen.html

(It's in German, obviously)

[SNJ1985]

CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?


http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

The AfD does indeed appear to be taking support from the CDU and CSU:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/uk-europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUKKCN0RF0T920150915

[SNJ1985]

New Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 36%
SPD: 25%
Grünen: 10%
Die Linke: 10%
AfD: 8%
FDP: 5%
Others: 6%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

[SNJ1985]

The AfD has hit 10,5% in the latest INSA/YouGov poll on wahlrecht.de, overtaking the Greens and the Left!

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23,5%
AfD: 10,5%
Grünen: 10,0%
DL: 10,0%
FDP: 5,0%
Others: 6%

[SNJ1985]

New Emnid poll

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 24%
Grünen: 10%
AfD: 9%
DL: 9%
FDP: 5%
Others: 5%

[SNJ1985]

New INSA/YouGov poll

CDU/CSU: 33%
SPD: 23%
AfD: 12,5%
Grünen: 10%
Linke: 10%
FDP: 6%
Others: 5,5%

[SNJ1985]

Wahl-o-mat for the Baden-Württemberg state election is out:
https://www9.wahl-o-mat.de/bw2016/main_app.php

AfD: 76,3%
Republicans: 73,7%
ALFA: 64,5%
CDU: 63,2%
FDP: 60,5%
Greens: 40,8%
SPD: 34,2%
Left: 28,9%

[SNJ1985]

Merkel replaces the chief of the BND, to the surprise of many:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/28/world/europe/angela-merkel-germany-bnd-gerhard-schindler.html?_r=0

[SNJ1985]

That poll also shows a record high for AfD.

[SNJ1985]

Wahl-o-mat for the Berlin state election is out:
http://www.bpb.de/politik/wahlen/wahl-o-mat/

AfD: 73,7%
Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland: 67,1%
NPD: 67,1%
FDP: 59,2%
CDU: 57,9%
SPD: 38,2%
DL: 21,1%
Grünen: 19,7%

[SNJ1985]

INSA Saxony Landtagswahl poll (5/10):

CDU: 37,5%
AfD: 21,5%
Linke: 16%
SPD: 13%
Grünen: 6%
FDP: 2%
NPD: 1,5%
Others: 2,5%

[SNJ1985]

  That first poster is taken from the Polish government playbook, in that Szydlo's government has rejected taking in non-European migrants, and instead have passed the Family 500+ law with the direct idea of raising the Polish population through a higher birth rate rather than through immigration.

All European countries should follow that approach.

[SNJ1985]

A lot of people seem to think that the AfD is the most successful post-WW2 party to the right of the CDU and CSU. What about this party, though? They had seats in the Bundestag from 1949 to 1960, and they even participated in governing coalitions.

[SNJ1985]

I believe there is a Bavarian regional party. It's not particularly strong though

They won 17 seats in the Bundestag back in 1949. They lost all of them in the 1953 election and haven't won any since then.

[SNJ1985]

New ARD poll:



CDU/CSU-FDP tied with SPD-AfD-Left-Greens (48% vs. 48%)

CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP: 57%
SPD-Left-Greens: 39%

AfD back in third place. Nice!

[SNJ1985]

The AfD gets 10% in the most recent INSA poll. They seem to be doing better in the polls recently.

[SNJ1985]

My results:

AfD: 77%
CDU/CSU: 59%
FDP: 53%
SPD: 32%
Greens: 23%
Linke: 20%

[SNJ1985]

Wahl-O-Mat results

AfD: 69,7%
NPD: 67,1%
FDP: 63,2%
CDU/CSU: 60,5%
SPD: 43,4%
PIRATEN: 32,9%
GRÜNEN: 30,3%
LINKE: 23,7%

[SNJ1985]

Söder to become Bavarian state premier while Seehofer will stay on as CSU leader.

http://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-3189.html

A CSU spokesman has denied this:

https://tinyurl.com/ybo3ftqr (Reuters)