Bill Young (FL-13) retiring

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/local/us-rep-cw-bill-young-to-retire-wont-seek-re-election-in-2014/2146274

D+1

[Miles]

He was one of the better Republicans, IMO, but PPP had him trailing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He was one of the better Republicans, IMO, but PPP had him trailing.

You think this poll scared him to retirement, or at least sealed the deal?

[DrScholl]

Definitely a good prospect for Democrats.

[minionofmidas]

He was one of the better Republicans, IMO, but PPP had him trailing.

You think this poll scared him to retirement, or at least sealed the deal?

It is conceivable that he had internal polling that matched it. If so, that would certainly be reason to retire.

Next question... does this change his position in the current ongoing fiasco?

EDIT: It helps to browse provided links before posting, it really does. It's not enough to open them in a new tab before posting, though.

[publicunofficial]

Young has considered retiring every cycle, and 2012 was his closest election in a long while. Not a huge surprise that he's calling it quits.


Obama won FL-13 50/48, and Young's 2012 opponent Jessica Ehrlich, who has already outraised Young, is in the race.


I think it's safe to call this Toss-Up/Tilt D at the moment, but it could easily be Lean D.

[PolitiJunkie]

D+1

(but actually, not a sarcastic "D+1" that we say when a Representative from Alabama retires)

[Donerail]

Lean R with Ehrlich (2012 candidate) or Wagman (former St. Pete Mayoral candidate), Tossup with Long (ex-State Rep, County Commish) or Rice (would-be St. Pete City Councilwoman). Lean D with Justice (former candidate for FL-13, ex-State Sen, County Commish), Kriseman (should he lose his mayoral bid; ex-State Rep) or Welch (County Commish), Safe D with Crist (Gov).

Possible Republicans: State Sen. Brandes, Mayor Baker (St. Pete), State Sen. Latvala, Mayor Hibbard (Clearwater), Commish Seel, Commish Morroni, David Jolly (Young aide), or Billy Young (Young's son).

[windjammer]

Toss up?

[DrScholl]

More like Lean D, with Charlie Crist bound to clean up in this district, any Democrat will benefit from that turnout. And we all know that the GOP candidate will most likely be quite conservative, which would be a further drag on Republican chances. Not the type of seat they really want to have open up.

[Donerail]

And we all know that the GOP candidate will most likely be quite conservative, which would be a further drag on Republican chances. Not the type of seat they really want to have open up.

No, we don't all know that, because that's simply false. Pinellas County, long ago, used to be basically the only place the GOP was competitive in Florida - it still maintains much of that legacy, including a very moderate Republican Party relative to the rest of the state/nation.

Unless the GOP nominates Brandes (who is a Tea Party/elected in 2010 guy), they won't be running a conservative. Latvala, he's conservative, but he's not kind of conservative to lose them the seat, he's the kind of conservative who I respect because he has interest in governing. Great guy. And Baker's a widely respected, rather nonpartisan figure on the GOP side; he did great things as St. Pete's Mayor. Hibbard is less well-known in this part of the county, but he served 10 years as Clearwater's Mayor and did a pretty decent job. Seel and Morroni are the sort of Republicans who are also very moderate - Seel has always been pro-fluoride, and Morroni (though unlikely to run due to issues with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma) has changed his fluoride stance and recently endorsed a lesbian Democrat running for St. Pete's City Council. Jolly isn't well known, and Billy Young is probably gonna try for a State House seat instead, but the odds of the Pinellas Rs nominating anyone "quite conservative" besides Brandes is ludicrous.

[DrScholl]

Not going to dissect all that, but the fact remains, recent history points to the GOP nominating some poor candidates, it's not outside the realm of possibility, even in "moderate" areas. It's quite a common trend.

[JerryArkansas]

God Damnit

[ElectionsGuy]

Well Sh*t, Toss-Up.

[Donerail]

Not going to dissect all that, but the fact remains, recent history points to the GOP nominating some poor candidates, it's not outside the realm of possibility, even in "moderate" areas. It's quite a common trend.

Not gonna get off the hook that easy. Find the poor candidate - out of Latvala, Baker, Hibbard, and Seel, which one's the Tea Party loon that's gonna lose them the seat?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not going to dissect all that, but the fact remains, recent history points to the GOP nominating some poor candidates, it's not outside the realm of possibility, even in "moderate" areas. It's quite a common trend.

Not gonna get off the hook that easy. Find the poor candidate - out of Latvala, Baker, Hibbard, and Seel, which one's the Tea Party loon that's gonna lose them the seat?

Actually, if all these moderates run won't that give an advantage to Brandes who'll monopolize the conservative vote?

[Vosem]

D+1!

No, but really, Tossup, maybe the slightest of Tilts D.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Holy crap, I would never have expected this.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Oh damn. Tilts D for sure, considering Crist's going to drive turnout up big here.

[ElectionsGuy]

Is there any confirmation that Crist is running?

[Donerail]

Not going to dissect all that, but the fact remains, recent history points to the GOP nominating some poor candidates, it's not outside the realm of possibility, even in "moderate" areas. It's quite a common trend.

Not gonna get off the hook that easy. Find the poor candidate - out of Latvala, Baker, Hibbard, and Seel, which one's the Tea Party loon that's gonna lose them the seat?

Actually, if all these moderates run won't that give an advantage to Brandes who'll monopolize the conservative vote?

If they all run, yes, but Latvala or Baker would largely clear the field, and both of them have (I feel) a respect for each other that would lead to only one of them running. Both Latvala and Baker are far stronger candidates than Frish - and Brandes is a very strong candidate in his own right. He's more 'actual libertarian' than 'Tea Party loon masquerading as one'.

Is there any confirmation that Crist is running?

For this seat? No, not since he lives in Castor's. For Governor? Yeah, he's running. All but declared.

[ElectionsGuy]

Not going to dissect all that, but the fact remains, recent history points to the GOP nominating some poor candidates, it's not outside the realm of possibility, even in "moderate" areas. It's quite a common trend.

Not gonna get off the hook that easy. Find the poor candidate - out of Latvala, Baker, Hibbard, and Seel, which one's the Tea Party loon that's gonna lose them the seat?

Actually, if all these moderates run won't that give an advantage to Brandes who'll monopolize the conservative vote?

If they all run, yes, but Latvala or Baker would largely clear the field, and both of them have (I feel) a respect for each other that would lead to only one of them running. Both Latvala and Baker are far stronger candidates than Frish - and Brandes is a very strong candidate in his own right. He's more 'actual libertarian' than 'Tea Party loon masquerading as one'.

Is there any confirmation that Crist is running?

For this seat? No, not since he lives in Castor's. For Governor? Yeah, he's running. All but declared.

Yes, Governor.

Running but not declared? Are there any hints you picked up or feelings you got that he's running?

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean D if Crist runs for Gov.
If Rich is the Gubernatorial, Nominee, Tossup Tilt/R.

[Donerail]

Running but not declared? Are there any hints you picked up or feelings you got that he's running?

Running? Absolutely. Plans are underway, fundraisers are being talked to, operatives are being, if not hired, at least promised their jobs (expect Steve Schale).

The FDP will be having their state conference on October 25th. Sink and Nelson (and any other viable Dem candidate) have already opted out. It's possible he'll announce there, but more likely he'll announce in St. Petersburg.  He'll declare after November 1st for sure - that's when donors can now pay $3K instead of $500 per person. But November's also too close to the holidays, and he won't be fundraising during Thanksgiving or the holidays. He's also releasing a book next year, so he'll be able to do a book tour instead (which wouldn't be bound by campaign finance limits). Look for, say, a January announcement.

[badgate]

The Florida 13th wants the D!