Bill Young (FL-13) retiring

[smoltchanov]

Obviously - about tossup, but depends on which candidates will be nominated. This district begs for pragmatic and relatively moderate congressman - we shall see, which party will nominate candidate most closely resembling it. With ultra-liberal Democrat - probably tilts Republican, with tea-party Republican - surely tilts Democratic. And so on...

[Dereich]

First poll is already out with Baker beating Brandes 24-12 on the GOP side with Latvala in third. Its already outdated however, because Brandes has announced that he's out of the race. Latvala has also announced that he's not running, probably because he wants to continue his unending fight to be Senate president some day.

On the Democratic side Crist sweeps, but with him out Justice leads Ehrlich 20-17.

The poll is here: http://www.saintpetersblog.com/flash-poll-charlie-crist-the-overwhelming-favorite-of-dems-to-replace-bill-young-rick-baker-leads-possible-gop-contenders

[Donerail]

Revised Dem prospects: attorney/2012 Congressional candidate Jessica Ehrlich, attorney Ben Diamond, real estate owner/2009 St. Petersburg mayoral candidate Scott Wagman, County Commissioner and fmr. State Rep. Janet Long, County Commissioner and fmr. State Senator (and 2010 Congressional candidate) Charlie Justice, current St. Pete City Council candidate Darden Rice, current St. Pete Mayoral candidate and fmr. State Rep. Rick Kriseman, former Speaker of the State House Peter Wallace, and fmr. Governor Charlie Crist.

Revised GOP prospects list: fmr. Mayor (and rumored Romney HUD pick) Rick Baker (St. Pete), fmr. Mayor Frank Hibbard (Clearwater), County Commissioner Karen Seel, aide to Rep. Young David Jolly, son/State House candidate Billy Young, Mayor and former aide to Rep. Young George Cretekos (Clearwater), and consultant Nick Zoiler.

[PolitiJunkie]

First poll is already out with Baker beating Brandes 24-12 on the GOP side with Latvala in third. Its already outdated however, because Brandes has announced that he's out of the race. Latvala has also announced that he's not running, probably because he wants to continue his unending fight to be Senate president some day.

On the Democratic side Crist sweeps, but with him out Justice leads Ehrlich 20-17.

The poll is here: http://www.saintpetersblog.com/flash-poll-charlie-crist-the-overwhelming-favorite-of-dems-to-replace-bill-young-rick-baker-leads-possible-gop-contenders

I'm confused. Are people talking about Crist as a poitential candidate for FL-13?

[Donerail]

I'm confused. Are people talking about Crist as a poitential candidate for FL-13?

Way less risky than a run against Scott. He was willing to give up the governorship for more job security in the Senate seat. Not a bad position for a 2016 Senate run either.

[Miles]

I'm confused. Are people talking about Crist as a poitential candidate for FL-13?

Way less risky than a run against Scott. He was willing to give up the governorship for more job security in the Senate seat. Not a bad position for a 2016 Senate run either.

Wouldn't 2018 be better when Nelson retires? He'd at least have two terms in the House then.

[Donerail]

I'm confused. Are people talking about Crist as a poitential candidate for FL-13?

Way less risky than a run against Scott. He was willing to give up the governorship for more job security in the Senate seat. Not a bad position for a 2016 Senate run either.

Wouldn't 2018 be better when Nelson retires? He'd at least have two terms in the House then.

Nelson'll be 74, so I dunno if he'll retire - he seems pretty healthy and like he could make it to 80, but I'm not sure. If he does retire, though, I'd expect Sink, Dyer, Buckhorn, Brown, and maybe Iorio or Smith to all be looking at the seat. 2016 also could be an open seat if Rubio runs for President.

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/jack-latvala-jeff-brandes-not-interested-in-rep-cw-bill-youngs-seat/2146576

Top Republican recruits declining.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Holy crap, I would never have expected this.

Seriously? The guy will be 84 by the next the next House is sworn in. I can't see this as a surprise at all.

[Donerail]

Holy crap, I would never have expected this.

Seriously? The guy will be 84 by the next the next House is sworn in. I can't see this as a surprise at all.

There's been talk about C.W. retiring before every race I can remember, and every time he didn't. Always struck me as a lifer.

[Donerail]

Revised Dem prospects: attorney/2012 Congressional candidate Jessica Ehrlich, attorney Ben Diamond, real estate owner/2009 St. Petersburg mayoral candidate Scott Wagman, County Commissioner and fmr. State Rep. Janet Long, County Commissioner and fmr. State Senator (and 2010 Congressional candidate) Charlie Justice, County Commissioner Ken Welch, current St. Pete City Council candidate Darden Rice, current St. Pete Mayoral candidate and fmr. State Rep. Rick Kriseman, former Speaker of the State House Peter Wallace, fmr. CFO Alex Sink, and fmr. Governor Charlie Crist.

Revised GOP prospects list: fmr. Mayor (and rumored Romney HUD pick) Rick Baker (St. Pete), State Sen. Jeff Brandes, State Sen. Jack Latvala, fmr. Mayor Frank Hibbard (Clearwater), fmr. County Commissioner Neil Brickfield, County Commissioner Karen Seel, County Commissioner John Morroni, aide to Rep. Young David Jolly, son/State House candidate Billy Young, wife Beverly Young, Mayor and former aide to Rep. Young George Cretekos (Clearwater), and consultant Nick Zoiler.

Revised and updated - a couple new faces and major decline for the Dems, and a couple big declines for the Rs. Beverly Young has said that she'd run only if Ehrlich is the Dem nominee.

[Donerail]

Add one more name to the Democrats' list - Alex Sink.

[Maxwell]

Add one more name to the Democrats' list - Alex Sink.

How likely is she to take this seat?

[publicunofficial]

Add one more name to the Democrats' list - Alex Sink.

How likely is she to take this seat?

She doesn't live in the district, and only barely won the district in her gubernatorial run. I doubt she runs, and I really doubt the Dems need her to win.

[Donerail]

Add one more name to the Democrats' list - Alex Sink.

How likely is she to take this seat?

Schorsch makes it seems like she's likely to run. The district favored her in 2010 (and she should do better than in 2010), but then again she'd be a carpetbagger. I'd be pulling for whoever the Pinellas Dems put up for Pinellas' seat, and I think a lot of people in the county will join me.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would have prefered that it be Don Young retiring and Bill remaining.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Beverly Young must be younger than Bill by a decade if she is going to be running. She can't just start a congressional career at the age of eighty something ?!?

[Donerail]

Beverly Young must be younger than Bill by a decade if she is going to be running. She can't just start a congressional career at the age of eighty something ?!?

57.

Sink is all but in.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Beverly Young must be younger than Bill by a decade if she is going to be running. She can't just start a congressional career at the age of eighty something ?!?

57.

Sink is all but in.

Setting herself up for a potential Senate bid in 2016 as well.

[Zioneer]

Beverly Young must be younger than Bill by a decade if she is going to be running. She can't just start a congressional career at the age of eighty something ?!?

57.

Sink is all but in.

Seriously? We don't need someone who doesn't even live in the district and who lost to Governor Voldemort. Plus, Ehrlich could be a lot better for purposes of party-building in that district, since she'd have more time (being younger and all) in there.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Beverly Young must be younger than Bill by a decade if she is going to be running. She can't just start a congressional career at the age of eighty something ?!?

57.

Sink is all but in.

Seriously? We don't need someone who doesn't even live in the district and who lost to Governor Voldemort. Plus, Ehrlich could be a lot better for purposes of party-building in that district, since she'd have more time (being younger and all) in there.

Ehrlich would be much better for the Democrats. Give her time to build up support within the community and she could become a fairly entrenched incumbent, as opposed to Sink, who will just jump into the 2016 or 2018 Senate races.

[Donerail]

Beverly Young must be younger than Bill by a decade if she is going to be running. She can't just start a congressional career at the age of eighty something ?!?

57.

Sink is all but in.

Seriously? We don't need someone who doesn't even live in the district and who lost to Governor Voldemort. Plus, Ehrlich could be a lot better for purposes of party-building in that district, since she'd have more time (being younger and all) in there.

I'm loathe to speak ill of another Democrat, particularly one from my area, but... she demonstrated poor form regarding Young's retirement (and she attacked Young throughout the campaign - not a great move against a respected figure), enough to be named Adam Smith's Loser of the Week. She's never held office, and there have been past issues raised with alleged resume padding and a questionable voting record.

Sink has said she's willing to move into the district, and her previous banking experience (as she pointed out when she said she'd decide within 30 days) was regional. For what it's worth, she did beat Scott in the district.

Best Democratic choice is probably Charlie Justice. He's only 45 but already served on the County Commission and in the State Senate and State House. He's also a native of St. Pete, went to St. Pete College and USF, works at USFSP, is well-known (ran a 2012 countywide race and ran against Young in 2010), and got good press for unseating a crazy person in 2012 (Nancy Bostock). He also seemed to consider running even with a Sink bid, telling the Times that he's "not sure anyone steps aside for anyone."

[Zioneer]

I'd love a Congressman Justice, simply for the name.

[publicunofficial]

Running:
ex State Rep. Larry Crow (R)


Not Running:
Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch (D)
Ex State House Speaker Rudy Wallace (D)
St. Petersburg mayoral nominee Rick Kriseman (D)


Alex Sink says she will decide in "weeks, not days" whether to run for the seat. I also hope she doesn't run, as I would prefer Justice as well.

[Donerail]

Running:
ex State Rep. Larry Crow (R)


Not Running:
Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch (D)
Ex State House Speaker Rudy Wallace (D)
St. Petersburg mayoral nominee Rick Kriseman (D)


Alex Sink says she will decide in "weeks, not days" whether to run for the seat. I also hope she doesn't run, as I would prefer Justice as well.

Crow represented companies that let you observe the behaviors of women via the Internet sans clothing, as well as gambling interests. Shouldn't be a tough R candidate. And I wouldn't expect Kriseman to run - he's running for Mayor because his family wanted him to take a job closer to home, and Congress would be absolutely opposite to all of that. Welch, of course, would've had to move to run for the seat. Sink says "weeks, not days". The specific number of weeks is <4.