New Jersey Senatorial Election (Special) Final Predictions and Results
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Author Topic: New Jersey Senatorial Election (Special) Final Predictions and Results  (Read 12598 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: October 16, 2013, 02:45:37 PM »
Booker 55%
Lonegan 44%
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #51 on: October 16, 2013, 03:54:31 PM »
Hunterdon (GOP area) county clerk said turnout is "166% higher than normal." Hunterdon is also not very populated and I don't know what "normal" in this case means.
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jaichind
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« Reply #52 on: October 16, 2013, 03:59:08 PM »
The wed voting day is confusing a lot of voters so I suspect turnout will be light.
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Seattle
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« Reply #53 on: October 16, 2013, 05:51:58 PM »
Last minute: 56-43 Booker.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #54 on: October 16, 2013, 05:53:08 PM »
55-44-1 Booker
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #55 on: October 16, 2013, 06:16:09 PM »
I pulled up to Lonegan HQs with two friends at 7. We were the only ones (besides two other staffers/volunteers) there. No one making calls.
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cinyc
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« Reply #56 on: October 16, 2013, 06:16:37 PM »
Polls close in about 45 minutes. 

Here's a link to the AP's results page and a list of county board of elections pages, which might have county-level results.  The New Jersey state election website isn't reporting results tonight.
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Sbane
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« Reply #57 on: October 16, 2013, 06:22:07 PM »
Is anyone doing an exit poll?
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cinyc
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« Reply #58 on: October 16, 2013, 06:34:19 PM »
Absentee vote tally leaks:

Bergen County: 59-41% Booker
Ocean County: 61%-37% Lonegan
Middlesex County: Booker leads Lonegan, 1,902 to 850, with 70% of the absentee ballot votes counted.  That's roughly 69%-31% Booker, assuming no third-party votes.
Union County: Booker: 2,875, Lonegan:  1,708.  That's roughly 63%-37% Booker, assuming no third-party votes.


It doesn't look like there will be one.  I haven't found any links to one on the NJ newspaper websites.
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jaichind
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« Reply #59 on: October 16, 2013, 06:54:25 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on October 16, 2013, 06:34:19 PM
Absentee vote tally leaks:

Bergen County: 59-41% Booker
Ocean County: 61%-37% Lonegan
Middlesex County: Booker leads Lonegan, 1,902 to 850, with 70% of the absentee ballot votes counted.  That's roughly 69%-31% Booker, assuming no third-party votes.
Union County: Booker: 2,875, Lonegan:  1,708.  That's roughly 63%-37% Booker, assuming no third-party votes.


It doesn't look like there will be one.  I haven't found any links to one on the NJ newspaper websites.

If this is true and reflective of the overall vote then it will end up being  roughly Booker 55 Lonegan 44.  Of course election day results could be different.
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cinyc
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« Reply #60 on: October 16, 2013, 07:14:57 PM »
More absentee rumors:
Monmouth County:  Lonegan 3,386, Booker 3,097 - roughly 52%-48% Lonegan, ignoring third-party votes.
Essex County: 62%-38% Booker.
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cinyc
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« Reply #61 on: October 16, 2013, 07:16:13 PM »
First Official Results from the AP:
Booker 2,751 51%   
Lonegan 2,450 46%

All from Gloucester County, probably absentees.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #62 on: October 16, 2013, 07:22:53 PM »
Ocean county reporting. Big dump, as expected, for Lonegan. He's now leading 55% to 45%.

You heard this live from Lonegan's election night party.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #63 on: October 16, 2013, 07:29:47 PM »
With a county map!

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/nj-special/senate/map.html
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cinyc
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« Reply #64 on: October 16, 2013, 07:31:35 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2013, 07:33:15 PM by cinyc »
Camden, Hudson and Passaic County put Booker on top 55%-44% with 2.6% in.
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jaichind
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« Reply #65 on: October 16, 2013, 07:38:22 PM »
Looking at Camden with 48% of the vote in and if that is indicative of the overall level of support then Lonegan will come in around 45 to 46.
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njwes
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« Reply #66 on: October 16, 2013, 07:42:40 PM »

Thanks!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #67 on: October 16, 2013, 07:47:42 PM »
Camden almost all in. 12% in statewide: Booker at 53%.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #68 on: October 16, 2013, 07:54:35 PM »
Lonegan takes the lead in Gloucester with 90% in. Wow.
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njwes
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« Reply #69 on: October 16, 2013, 07:57:29 PM »
I'm gonna be devastated if there's no exit poll Cry How are we supposed to do our super-miopic post-election analyses??
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Gass3268
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« Reply #70 on: October 16, 2013, 08:09:46 PM »
Booker won Gloucester by .9%
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #71 on: October 16, 2013, 08:10:29 PM »
Booker only wins Gloucester by 1% (300 votes). I know it was a differet situation but for reference, Obama won by 14%.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #72 on: October 16, 2013, 08:12:08 PM »
This reminds me of Murphy-McMahon, except that Pub was sane.
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jaichind
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« Reply #73 on: October 16, 2013, 08:12:55 PM »
On the flip side with most of Monmouth in,  Lonegan is under-performing there.
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cinyc
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« Reply #74 on: October 16, 2013, 08:16:59 PM »
55%-44% Booker with 39% in.  Given what's out, I'm surprised the AP hasn't called it for Booker yet.
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